SEC Week 11
- Thread starter gps_3
- Start date
Ugh 5 yards from covering. I think the question is do they get more creative offensively and do they stop the run better despite lack of linebacker depth. That whole game they were shut down. God if Etling could hit an open receiver downfield better than Lewerke tries to Bama coulda lost
BOL Amigo :biggestfan:
ksimpsc
Pretty much a regular
Tough on the Florida and Mizzou lines. Florida completely gave up on the game about 2 drives in. The only person that was still trying about three drives in was Zaire, and then he threw a pick. Odom was out for blood with the play calls. The book must be over reacting to the Florida let down but surprised they went high on Mizzou as well.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Mizzou should probably be favored, but maybe in the 6-7 range. USCe seems like a good line. Vandy, on the other hand, should be +3.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I haven't watched the game on TV yet, but it sure did seem like Saban was content to eat clock and see if LSU could score enough to worry us. I was thinking about the posts last week about Alabama vs the FCS team in week 12, and maybe it would apply to any other game where we have a comfortable lead, and the fact that it appears that when they put Tua in, he has the entire playbook at his disposal, so the potential for extending the lead is greater than usual.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Some general thoughts on Alabama:
I still haven't watched much of the game on TV, so most of this was what I could glean from being in the stands.
Kind of a weird game. LSU outgained Alabama, but at no point during the game did it feel like LSU was going to win, or even make Alabama sweat all that much. Almost seemed like the play calling reflected that Saban felt the same way. We really had no answer for Arden Key, and it appeared to me that the LSU DL as a whole whipped our OL pretty good, so maybe we went super vanilla to decrease the chances of a game changing turnover
JK Scott was the Alabama MVP. Was able to flip field position a couple of times and pin LSU deep a few times.
Thought it was one of Hurts' best games throwing the ball. There were some pretty bad drops that would have definitely improved his stat line, and probably influenced the score of the game, but for the most part, he made the right decision and threw the ball where it needed to go.
No way to sugarcoat it, the injuries to SDH and Mack Wilson hurt. Losing SDH hurt us bad last year, and could have the same impact this year. He's the one that makes sure everyone is in the right place. Mack is out 4-6 weeks, so he could be back for playoffs if we get there. If Minkah had been hurt, it would have been a catastrophe. As it is, we've lost 4 of our top 7 LBs so far this year. Hope the young guys can limit the dropoff
Thought the offensive game plan for LSU was pretty good. Much better than the plan the last few years. Etling threw some nice passes, and he had some open WRs several times that he either missed or they dropped the pass. LSU's defense played hard and fast as they usually do. Still not sure what they are as a week to week team, but they definitely have some players on the team. Glad that it's likely the last time I have to worry about Key
I still haven't watched much of the game on TV, so most of this was what I could glean from being in the stands.
Kind of a weird game. LSU outgained Alabama, but at no point during the game did it feel like LSU was going to win, or even make Alabama sweat all that much. Almost seemed like the play calling reflected that Saban felt the same way. We really had no answer for Arden Key, and it appeared to me that the LSU DL as a whole whipped our OL pretty good, so maybe we went super vanilla to decrease the chances of a game changing turnover
JK Scott was the Alabama MVP. Was able to flip field position a couple of times and pin LSU deep a few times.
Thought it was one of Hurts' best games throwing the ball. There were some pretty bad drops that would have definitely improved his stat line, and probably influenced the score of the game, but for the most part, he made the right decision and threw the ball where it needed to go.
No way to sugarcoat it, the injuries to SDH and Mack Wilson hurt. Losing SDH hurt us bad last year, and could have the same impact this year. He's the one that makes sure everyone is in the right place. Mack is out 4-6 weeks, so he could be back for playoffs if we get there. If Minkah had been hurt, it would have been a catastrophe. As it is, we've lost 4 of our top 7 LBs so far this year. Hope the young guys can limit the dropoff
Thought the offensive game plan for LSU was pretty good. Much better than the plan the last few years. Etling threw some nice passes, and he had some open WRs several times that he either missed or they dropped the pass. LSU's defense played hard and fast as they usually do. Still not sure what they are as a week to week team, but they definitely have some players on the team. Glad that it's likely the last time I have to worry about Key
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
It really looked like Fitzpatrick ripped his hamstring when he went down defending that deep ball in the 1H. I was shocked to see him get up after initially grabbing at it on the play and being on the turf for a short time.
Good to see Fitzpatrick was okay. For him, and for Danielson - thought he was going to break down and cry when Fitzpatrick was on the ground.
Good to see Fitzpatrick was okay. For him, and for Danielson - thought he was going to break down and cry when Fitzpatrick was on the ground.
Key's non-existenxe in the beginning of the season has definitely deflated a lot of LSU's defensive stats
good, GREAT, post
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Didn't see a whole bunch from the games last week, but looking at highlights and box scores, nothing really stands out as surprising to me, other than Florida getting blown out by Missouri and Ole Miss winning, I thought they would have mailed it in by now. Good job by their coaches. Arkansas being down 2 scores to Coastal Carolina in the 4th quarter is not good. Have to think Bret's time there is about finished. Some might be surprised that UMASS kept it so close to Miss St, but it was mentioned in this thread last week that it was a definite sandwich spot for Miss st, and they were -2 in TOs.
Pretty good slate of games this week. Or at least it's much more watchable overall than the last few weeks. Think we learn a lot about UGA and AU this week. AU may have the defense to force Fromm to win it, and UGA probably has the defense to force Stidham to operate under pressure, which he has not shown he can handle well. Feels like a game that could come down to field position and turnovers, as I'm not sure either team will be able to reel off extended drives consistently
Call me a homer, but I think we handle Miss St pretty much like we have the last few years. Not last year's blow out, but comfortable 2-3 TD win
Mizzou -10.5 seems ridiculous to me. Say what you want about Butch, but I think his players are still playing hard for him. Depending on what the line does, I will most likely be on UT.
Can't say the same about Florida. Sounds like they have quit. Will avoid their games from here on out.
I know nothing about New Mexico, but this seems like a classic aTm non-conference game that is way closer than it should be. Will be looking at taking the points here
LSU or nothing against Ark, which is the opposite of how I normally feel about this game.
Gonna have to dive in a little bit, but interested in taking UK as a dog to Vandy
No opinion on Ole Miss as of yet
Pretty good slate of games this week. Or at least it's much more watchable overall than the last few weeks. Think we learn a lot about UGA and AU this week. AU may have the defense to force Fromm to win it, and UGA probably has the defense to force Stidham to operate under pressure, which he has not shown he can handle well. Feels like a game that could come down to field position and turnovers, as I'm not sure either team will be able to reel off extended drives consistently
Call me a homer, but I think we handle Miss St pretty much like we have the last few years. Not last year's blow out, but comfortable 2-3 TD win
Mizzou -10.5 seems ridiculous to me. Say what you want about Butch, but I think his players are still playing hard for him. Depending on what the line does, I will most likely be on UT.
Can't say the same about Florida. Sounds like they have quit. Will avoid their games from here on out.
I know nothing about New Mexico, but this seems like a classic aTm non-conference game that is way closer than it should be. Will be looking at taking the points here
LSU or nothing against Ark, which is the opposite of how I normally feel about this game.
Gonna have to dive in a little bit, but interested in taking UK as a dog to Vandy
No opinion on Ole Miss as of yet
ksimpsc
Pretty much a regular
Mizzou being favored by that much definitely has me wanting to play Tennessee. I do not think that Mizzou will have the success that they did with a deflated Florida against Tennessee, especially running the ball.
SCar -7.5 is probably the right correction given that Florida looked like nobody cared and it didn't seem like Randy Shannon was going to turn that around. Doubt I will want to lay 2 scores with the Gamecocks. May have to wait for a TT and see what the numbers are to find any value.
SCar -7.5 is probably the right correction given that Florida looked like nobody cared and it didn't seem like Randy Shannon was going to turn that around. Doubt I will want to lay 2 scores with the Gamecocks. May have to wait for a TT and see what the numbers are to find any value.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I just re-read my post, and my middle school English teacher would be ashamed. My point was that in the past, when we put in our backup QB in these blowout games, he has basically handed it off every play. But this year they are letting Tua sling it around when he's in. The Vandy and Ole Miss games would likely have not been as large a blowout in previous years. It's also apparent the coaches feel more comfortable putting him in earlier in the game, and with the 1st team offense. That may not apply next week against Mercer though. I would love to see most of our 2 deep across the board with their helmets off by halftime
My perception of Tua is probably unfairly shaded by that pick 6, that's what watching games can create as downside. But it's so refreshing to see somebody with the confidence of an AJ Mccarron to throw down the field
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I tend to think that the emphasis on not turning the ball over last year impeded Jalen's development as a passer. Tua was already a more polished passer, and now he's been given an environment where he can do what he does, without major repercussions. Next spring and fall camp will be interesting in Tuscaloosa as it pertains to the QB position
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
have to think Tua starts or plays a TON next year
Something is off on Bama this year....LSU has the athletes to play with them, but like GPS said, was just a weird game
I firmly believe if LSU had a QB, the outcome may be different. Etling just sucks, plain and simple.
Something is off on Bama this year....LSU has the athletes to play with them, but like GPS said, was just a weird game
I firmly believe if LSU had a QB, the outcome may be different. Etling just sucks, plain and simple.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I think what's "off" is basically just the difference between Lane and Daboll. Not as many big plays with the new OC as Lane. Defensive attrition and injuries have made that side seem less imposing, although the stats and rankings are still fine. College football as a whole is down this year too. If you listen to Bill Connelly, you know that the rating that would make a team #2 right now, would have been #8 or 9 same time last year
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Great post, I was at the game as well, and really felt like Scott was MVP too. He just has a tremendous leg and really boomed some key punts to flip field position around. I was surprised that LSU running game was so edge centric, with all the stuff off motion and jet sweeps and was surprised they didn't run more inside with Guice. Do agree though they had a good game plan and Etling had man coverage on a lot of early down throws where he had guys open and just missed the throws. Alabama play calling was disappointing in that there were no draws or screens, or use of the TE. I think your right though that Saban didn't feel threatened by LSU offense and therefore everything was very vanilla and safe.
God the while time I was screamig to do a screen. To try to stretch LSU D horizontally since they've had the interior totally covered. They tried one to Calvin that got batted down at line of scrimmage then never again. So much uncreative running up the interior. Finally a few qb designed runs but not enough of those either. Just limited playbook
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Totally agree on CFB down this year
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Listening to alot of sport talk radio as I often do, I can not believe the extent of Alabama doubters I am hearing. It's like they lost last week. I get it, LSU has chances and Bama seemed to drop all of their chances. Pretty crazy to me to hear the people lining up right now to bash Bama, and they won by 14. Everyone keeps saying "injuries piling up", which they are. Saban gonna figure something out to compensate, what else can you do. Just seems weird for me to hear what I've been hearing. Being a dog player and looking at Miss St, I'm getting cold feet as it seems like everyone thinks MSU has a chance this week. When is the last time Alabama has been taken so lightly?
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
It happens every year. Everyone wants to be the first to call the end of the run. After the 2013 game against AU, Cowherd said Saban would never beat Malzahn again. There was some chatter last year after we beat LSU 10-0 that there were chinks in the armor and watch out for Miss St because we were beat up and it was an early kick: 51-3.
I do think that the injuries are a concern, but in 11 seasons, I can count on one finger when a team was able to run the ball effectively against us, and it was Zeke Elliott. There's always chatter that the mobile QB gives us big problems, but it's more specific than that. They have to be a legit threat to run, but also be accurate with down the field passing. There are times when QBs have had success throwing 50-50 balls and count on their WR to win the one on one battles. Miss St is last in the SEC in yds/pass att, so not sure they're much of a threat there. This kind of feels like it could be the week where Alabama puts it all together, and wins something like 38-10. UGA and AU are the closest teams MSU has played to what they'll see on Saturday, and those didn't turn out so well for Bully, although neither were in Starkville. I'm likely just going to watch like I do with most Alabama games. I've had some success with 1h unders this year with them, might look at that on Saturday. If it drops below 14, I may take a stab on Alabama
Those were road games tho gps. Bully much stronger at home. And it's not like Georgia ran over them with 10 ypc
Sk, si is showing 80% of tix wagered on Bama. Ofc media wants to spin a sensation and call the upset, a lot of them did that for Iowa last week and it happened to work. But bettors seem to think same old Bama despite the thinness at linebacker.
Scary how well LSU ran on Bama last week and controlled top, and Bully gets an upgrade at quarterback too
Last non-cover on road for Bama at Mond, who isn't accurate downfield
Sk, si is showing 80% of tix wagered on Bama. Ofc media wants to spin a sensation and call the upset, a lot of them did that for Iowa last week and it happened to work. But bettors seem to think same old Bama despite the thinness at linebacker.
Scary how well LSU ran on Bama last week and controlled top, and Bully gets an upgrade at quarterback too
Last non-cover on road for Bama at Mond, who isn't accurate downfield
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Fitzgerald is a better QB than Etling, but I still don't think he's a good enough passer to give Alabama a ton of problems. If Jalen has as good a game this week as last week, and WR don't drop as many balls, then I think the offense will score enough to cover
Bama player told me Minkah and D'shawn are all good to play
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
I would add they LSUs other skilled positions (RB, WR, TE) are much better than what MSU has to offer. I would give MSUs O-Line the nod.
What does LSU's talent at receiver matter when Etling is too incompetent to hit him
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Ftizgerald seems to pile up #s in the air against nobodies, I don't see him as much of threat throwing against Bama. He'll basically become one-dimensional - a recipe for failure against that (still) very, very good defense. I'm not sure who is saying MSU has a realistic chance of winning this game.
Possibly sneak in a cover? Yes. Win? Not really.
Possibly sneak in a cover? Yes. Win? Not really.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
A good receiver can get separation. A good QB with bad receivers is forced to throw into tight windows. Against a good defense, tight windows are tighter. Thus, turnovers happen. A good receiver that can get separation limits that. The QB might overthrow him, but that same turnover is less likely to happen.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
UF has one game left on its schedule, and it's not this one. I can't wait to bet the Blazers next week, but I will not hesitate to play USC this week as well.
ksimpsc
Pretty much a regular
Good point that a noon road game in SC is likely not to have their attention I just hate to bet on emotion. This line a month or two ago was likely 10+ points different. I was looking forward to all season taking the points against UF and having our fifth ML win and then the wheels fell off their season.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Yep. It is scheduled for a 8 AM Kick on Nickelodeon. Go Noles!!!
