gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Saturday, November 4, 2023
SEC Week 10
- Thread starter gps_3
- Start date
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
This week may be the biggest discrepancy between my PR and the actual lines of the year. I use my numbers as a starting point and don't factor in injuries, situation, etc to generate the lines, so I'm not too worried that I'm way off. At least not yet. If UGA continues to look as good as they did last week, there will be another decent sized adjustment coming for the rest of the league
Speaking of UGA, it was mentioned in other threads, but I get the interest in backing Mizzou as a dog, and maybe even the ML. I'm not ready to give them much of a chance of the upset, but I think that this game along with the next 2 may provide enough body blows to UGA to see them drop a regular season game for the first time since 2020. That's wild, and maybe a little bit damning for that division of the conference
Big one in Tuscaloosa obviously. A win for Alabama nearly locks up the West. A win by LSU makes the chances of a 3 way tie for the division a real possibility, though it would most likely take a win by Ole Miss in Athens. I'm sure there will be plenty of analysis everywhere, but I think it really just comes down to how many points do we think LSU will score. I like Alabama to score at least 28 points. Can they hold LSU under 30? The defense has been trending like an elite unit, this will be the test to prove it. As far as I know today, Alabama is as healthy as they've been all season. The bye week was nice so that some guys could let minor things heal. Normally I'd say it's a big advantage to be playing in Tuscaloosa, but LSU has had plenty of success there in recent years when the stakes are high. At the current number, I have a slight lean to Alabama, but I think the over may be a better bet. But the best bet(s) may be LSU 1h, Alabama 2h.
Not many thoughts on the other games at this point. That aTm @ Ole Miss game is really interesting though
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
It should be a great environment. We had plans to go, but had too many kid activities going on to get down there.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I do not believe Uga can hold mixzou under 20 points, im not real sure bout mizzou d or Uga o but im assuming if tigers get me 20+ they should cover. I actually think mizzou could make this very uncomfortable for Uga. I can’t even recall last time I took pointe against Uga let alone said I think they could get beat! It was 26-22 last year, mixzou offense was nothing close to what it is now and Uga d isn’t as good it was then. Pretty confident tigers will move ball between the 20s, whether they can get 7s or have to settle i tbink could be wkat decides it! Or im crazy and Uga rolls. I’m just not sure many teams can deal w mizzou wr corp, Burden gonna be a star at next level, Wease and cooper will both be solid nfl players. Uga hasn’t generated a ton of sacks. Nobody can take burden away without help, yoi help on him the other guys will make plays. If this isn’t a game I’ll be surprised and disappointed.
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gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
What Mizzou, and any team wanting to beat UGA really, needs is to get out to a quick start, and avoid turning the ball over. We saw it with Florida last week. Great start on the opening drive. Give up a FG drive to UGA and things are in pretty good shape. But a TO on downs, then another TO and the game is over. UF can't recover against a team as good and disciplined as UGA. Not many can. If Mizzou goes out and turns it over a couple times early, it will be another UGA blowout. They need the same start they had against LSU. I don't think UGA's offense is near as good as LSU's, so if Mizzou can get out ahead early, I think they could possibly pull it off. I think the most likely scenario is that Mizzou hangs around and then UGA pulls away late. Whether or not they get the cover depends on how the 4th quarter goes with turnovers, short fields, defense beat up, etc
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I guess with Alabama not having put together 4 quarters of decent offensive football is the biggest concern, even with LSU's deficiencies on defense. I think it's fair to think LSU scores mid to high 20s at minimum, even with it being the best defense they've faced so far. Feels like I can talk myself into about a dozen outcomes for this one
Pretty cool.
What was the feeling about heading down to SEC country?
I'd assume taking him to Minnesota Iowa would have been a punishment for bad grades?
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
best man in my first wedding got relocated down there. two birds, one stone.
I took him to Michigan/Minnesota.....I can't have him thinking thats what he needs to strive for.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I feel like the secondary issues were kind of already baked in, but I think Wingo being out is pretty beneficial to Alabama. Watching the CFB Nerds preview, they mentioned something that made me throw up in my mouth: Alabama has started 5 of their 8 games with a 3 and out on offense. And in a 6th game (Texas), we threw an interception. That is so bad it is comical. Our game opening script design and/or execution has been terrible. The adjustments and/or execution after half have been great. I do not think we can wait until half to get our shit together unless we have just an unreal, otherworldly effort from the defense. LSU 1H, Alabama 2H seems like the play to me
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Charles0619
Well-Known Member
I like Texas A&M team total under 25.5. I know that anemic offense looked better against a bad South Carolina team but I can’t imagine them getting as many points against Ole Miss. With the early 11am start and two reasonably good defenses, I think 24 points wins this game. I will be in Oxford for the game. Weather should be good. Hotty Toddy!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Defense? If I’m lsu im blitzing the living fuck out of bama every play. Hopefully that creates a few game changing plays via sack or turnover, obviously Milroe gonna hit them deep when they don’t get home but he gonna beat them anyways, might as well be n the attack! This gonna have to be the Daniels show, I remember what Ewers and texas wrs did to bama, Daniels, Nabers, and my guy Brian Thomas are better that the texas passing game! Big plays baby!
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I don't think it's a bad idea. But while this isn't the Bama D of the 2010's, it's likely one of the best in the country this year. That said, elite offense against elite defense is still an advantage to the offense 99% of the time, so I expect LSU to score a minimum of 24 points. Alabama stalls out on offense occasionally, but they certainly possess the ability to score very quickly. I expect this game to be played in the 30s, so that would definitely be a nod to the over
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
what was his name?
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
So cool.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Everything bout this screams over so naturally I’m scared of the over!! Lol. Of course this wouldn’t be the 1st lsu over I passed and felt like a idiot within 10 minutes! Bright side is I usually cash a prop or 2 in their games.
I don’t see any reason for total here, another short line for bama so the choice is easy for me! I was saying in another thread it funny everyone so down on bama this year and I find myself betting them a lot!! Like you said the defense is far from bad, it actually seems pretty damn good to me! Yes they have had some ugly parts of games but when push comes to shove they shutting teams down when they gotta have it!! I doubt they can completely stop lsu but they gonna be able to put up plenty of points in them! A terrible defense coming into bama and we only have to lay -3? Honestly not sure why the hell they were -8.5 to vols but only -3 here?? Is lsu better than vols? They clearly different but I’m not sure they better. This number seems nuts to me. I love danieks, Nabers, and I think Brian Thomas could turn out to be special. I have no doubt there gonna be some big plays from both sides but end of day I’d play bama -3 at home vs pretty much anyone!
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Love your confidence in my team. I am nervous about this one, but I think we pull it out. I think the LSU offense is very good, but I'm starting to hear talking heads saying they are as good as that 2019 LSU offense, and that's just absurd. I'm thinking Alabama wins something like 38-31
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Where are our boys @Grovehard and @pressitup? Sneaky good game at 11 am God's time. I think Ole Miss takes it to them, but something tells me Lane has a hard on for UGA next week and they may lay a stinker tomorrow
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
I don't know enough about OM to provide an assessment.
If they run, Ags will stuff them. If they pass, Ags will tackle like the Titans.
ag rcvrs are superior to most everyone, Max takes an hour to release the ball. Drives me nuts.
I have no idea why Moss didn't play last week. Daniels got all the carries and he's just not that big. Must be above my pay grade.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I freaking love lsu offense, I don’t think I’ve lost a prop bet on them all year! And I play at least one damn near every week!! Coming into the year you never woulda been able to convince me I’d be salivating to bet bama here, thought for sure tigers were gonna be playing for sec championship and in the playoff. I thought the minute they hired Brian Kelly they would win it all within 3 years! (Guess I still have one more year to be right! Lol), I thought what he was able to do at ND given the obvious limitations compared to here where nfl talent grows on trees this would be a cakewalk! It’s insane to me he has allowed the d to be this bad! How in the world they can be ranked worse than 75th and some in the 100s in pretty much every category I find meaningful has to be the most redic and shocking things of this season!!
Even if someone wanted to argue and convince me their offense is on the last championship teams level it doesn’t matter cause that teams defense wasn’t a complete joke! They averaged 220+ more yards a game than they allowed! That team held opponents to a 50% completion percentage! Daniels, Nabers, and Brian Thomas are all freaking amazing, Daniels running ability might make him more dangerous than burrow. Pretty tough for any wr’s to stack up to Jefferson and chase tho! I actually think Brian Thomas might end up being a pro on that level even more so than Nabers, Nabers more advanced far as route running, his understanding of the game, and ability to line up all over, but Thomas has some elite pure physical gifts that can’t be taught, his combination of size and speed makes me think Randy moss!! He took a big leap this year, he wasn’t seeing the field or contributing like Nabers last year so it’s understandable he isn’t as advanced.
Anyways none of that important, it all comes down to this, tigers d Is fucking terrible and somehow they coming in getting way less points than vols or ol miss who hung 55 while beating them!! This number makes no sense. Yes Daniels is prob the best qb in the sec and I love his will to win but he facing a top 10ish defense in hostile territory. Bama will figure out how to get some stops when they need them most. I could see bama once again down early but their d has figured out every offense they have faced and made adjustments that changed the game at the half.
Lsu problem is they have to pick their poison, either keep their safeties way back and hope nobody blows a coverage as they pretty much do every week? So In that scenario bama punishes them on the ground and still prob hits a shot on a blown coverage, or lsu comes up to take away the run and Milroe completes 4-5 40+ yard td passes! I see no option for lsu d in the sense they not capable of stopping both things bama can do well, maybe they can take one away but which? If bama allowed to chew up yards and clock on the ground it will be way easier for the d to contain lsu, if I’m the tigers I ain’t letting that happen, im gonna bring safeties up and I’m gonna blitz a lot. Maybe they can create sone havoc like that? Obviously Milroe gonna roast them for multiple long bombs but at least your offense sees the field more often.
Imo lsu only chance is all out blitzing and a few of those create turnovers, short of that I just don’t see it. I’ve always been fond of the saying “defense travels”, I have no doubt lsu offense will score points but I’m just as confident there gonna be stretches in this game where they struggle, without a defense to hold down the fort when bama d is getting off the field it just doesn’t bode well for the tigers. Even in this day and age I still trust defense when the chips are down, assuming we talking bout a elite defense which I think bama still is.
As if this post ain’t been long enough there one more thing I gotta add, despite how much I like Daniels and think he a beast when his team needs him most the fact is the last 2 years the only big game vs another top team I recall them winning was beating bama last year in Baton Rouge! Other than that they have fell short multiple times including 2x this year, Noles put on a clinic with halftime adjustments scoring on 6-7 straight possessions to bury lsu in a game I thought tigers looked like the better team in the 1st half! Then at ol miss they went into the 4th up 8 and got beat 21-7 to end the game! In contrast bama has went into half trailing against that same ol miss team, against Aggies, and against vols! they proceeded to dominate every one of those games the minute they came out the locker room!! That the team I want my money on!!
This is VERY impressive
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Are we talking bout the same A&M team Judkins went to college station and ran for 200+ at over 6 yards a pop last year? They could certainly be better against the run this year but I just watched vols push them around like they were a high school team! I have no doubt you know this Aggies team better than I do and the gaudy run d numbers tell a similar story as you. The problem is I’ve looked back the last 2 years and when Aggies have faced elite rush attacks they don’t perform close to those gaudy averages!
Rebs went for damn near 400 yards on the ground in that game! They are such a tough offense cause lane will figure out what the d is focusing on and attack the areas left weakened as you can’t defend everything thing this team does without exposing one position group or another! This just a assumption but when Aggies popped in the film of last years game there no way they don’t try and come up with something to take awY the run game! It pretty much impossible to win a game you allow that kind of production on the ground! Once again I see Aggies have some gaudy pass d numbers as well but the 2 teams they played with better than avg passing attacks put up 300+!!! I’m under the impression Aggies corners are beatable and I just don’t see how they can have help here unless they want Rebs rushing for 250+ Yet again!
I feel like the folks setting the props kinda agree with me here. They have incredibly low rush numbers for dart and Judkins but they have dart passing yards at 249.5, not a massive number but he has only eclipsed this in one SEC game and that was vs lsu which hardly even counts! (Lol). I’m a little torn here cause getting Judkins at 72.5 is very appealing, Matter a fact I’d think bout taking him at 100+ +270 or maybe dart who has a very sexy +400 on just 50+ rush yards! He hasn’t hit that number much this year but if Judkins is the focus and he can avoid sacks he could have 50 by halftime! That said I do think dart pass yards is a bit a tell, one that lines up perfectly with the fact I have to believe stopping the run is gonna be priority 1-2 and 3 after last years game!
The side the ball I don’t have much feel for is Aggies offense vs Rebs d. Most the passing props I lose are because of game script much more so than the qb ability to throw for the yards, I thought bringing Petrino in was gonna transform this AM offense into something better then the crap it been under jimbo! Has that really been the case tho? If you told me you were confident Aggies would score 24+ I think I’d be perfectly happy playing dart passing prop over! Crazy how important the opposing teams offense is to cashing qb passing props, last 2 I lost were direct result of their teams not needing to pass thanks to a large 2nd half lead!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I was afraid it was way to long with to much babbling! Lol. Glad you got something out of it!!
aplous
Donkey Hater
Agree. Fishy as hell flat 3
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
1. Ole Miss is tough to beat on the road. After Ole Miss lost their first 3 home games of 2020 to Florida, Alabama, and Auburn, they have won 19 of their last 21 home games. Ole Miss's only 2 home losses in that span were a 30-24 loss to Alabama on 11/12/2022 and a 24-22 loss to Mississippi State on 11/24/2022. These 2 home losses were during Ole Miss's season-ending 4-game losing streak last year.
2. Ole Miss is playing their second consecutive home game and coming off a 33-7 rout of Vanderbilt.
3. This is Ole Miss's last SEC home game. Having an 11:00 AM kick helps a bit because the crowd noise would be even louder.
4. Ags have lost 8 consecutive road games, including 7 straight SEC road losses and 5 straight road losses to SEC West teams. It just so happens that this road losing streak began at Vaught-Hemingway when we lost to Ole Miss 29-19 on 11/13/2021. We have not won a road game since a 35-14 win at Missouri on 10/16/2021 and a road game against an SEC West team since a 31-20 win at Auburn on 12/5/2020.
5. Ags have not scored an offensive touchdown in the second half in our last 4 games against Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, and South Carolina. Our offense has scored 18 points (6 field goals) in those four second halves combined.
6. Ags have allowed 23 defensive or special teams points (Auburn scored 7 on fumble return, Arkansas scored 7 on pick-6, Alabama scored 2 points on a safety, and Tennessee scored 7 on punt return) across 4 SEC games.
2. Ole Miss is playing their second consecutive home game and coming off a 33-7 rout of Vanderbilt.
3. This is Ole Miss's last SEC home game. Having an 11:00 AM kick helps a bit because the crowd noise would be even louder.
4. Ags have lost 8 consecutive road games, including 7 straight SEC road losses and 5 straight road losses to SEC West teams. It just so happens that this road losing streak began at Vaught-Hemingway when we lost to Ole Miss 29-19 on 11/13/2021. We have not won a road game since a 35-14 win at Missouri on 10/16/2021 and a road game against an SEC West team since a 31-20 win at Auburn on 12/5/2020.
5. Ags have not scored an offensive touchdown in the second half in our last 4 games against Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, and South Carolina. Our offense has scored 18 points (6 field goals) in those four second halves combined.
6. Ags have allowed 23 defensive or special teams points (Auburn scored 7 on fumble return, Arkansas scored 7 on pick-6, Alabama scored 2 points on a safety, and Tennessee scored 7 on punt return) across 4 SEC games.
Grovehard
Pretty much a regular
The line movement concerns me as an Ole Miss fan. Better QB, though he is dinged up, and better coach at home and we’re getting a “just win the game” number? Weird. I do think that A&M’s DL can cause problems for Ole Miss and the last time that happened Bama shut the offense down. I’m not sure if A&M is as talented as Bama and I know they’re not as well coached, but if they play up to their ability they can make life difficult. My initial read was Under but the number got away from me. Golding has done a damn good job with the defense and I don’t see A&M making me re-think that.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
A great QB can make up for a lot of bad. The defensive woes were already baked in, so I'm not sure there could be any news other than Perkins being out that can shift the line. I don't know of any news on the Bama side that could be worrisome, so it may just be faith in that LSU offense to score points, and if nothing else, having a good chance at the backdoor
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Y’all gonna be right there at the end. Only thing that can stop y’all is Milroe/Mistakes
