SEC Week 10

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
UGA @ Kentucky (+9.5)

Mizzou @ Florida (-6)

aTm @ AU (-6)

Tennessee (-21) vs Charlotte

Miss St (-20.5) vs La tech

SCAR @ Ole Miss (PK)

Alabama @ LSU (+14)

BYE: Vandy, Arkansas
 
My PR lines:

UGA -4

AU -2.5

Ole Miss -0.5

Alabama -10.5

I'm sure the game in LSU will be the most discussed, and I know there's another thread started about it, so we can discuss here or there, it doesn't matter to me. Will post some thoughts as I can. Both divisions can be clinched this weekend. The East definitely will, the west will if Alabama wins
 
Only game I really saw most of this weekend was UF-UGA. I think UF's defense may have been the best unit on the field. They stopped, what, 7 straight "and Goal" plays after fumbling on the 1 yard line? Impressive. Bottom line was that Florida couldn't afford the mistakes they made, but I don't think the gap between the 2 is as big as we thought 10 weeks ago. Franks isn't quite the runner Mullen needs him to be, maybe Emory Jones can be that kind of player. I think UGA looked about how they have all season with the exception of the LSU game. I still hold to my comparison that this is a carbon copy of a pre-Kiffin Alabama team.

Didn't watch much, but had to read up on how I lost my Mizzou bet when they were up 14-3 late in the game. No 1st downs in the 2nd half is an abomination, I don't care how good UK's defense is. Credit to them though, they found a way to win the game. Still can't see them hanging with UGA next week, but I'm not itching to bet against them either.

Tennessee is still playing hard, which is more than could be said about them last year. If Fulmer will stay out of the way, Pruitt will get them back to respectability soon.

I'll be honest, I didn't see the Miss St game happening the way it did, though I guess I should have. Miss St's DL is still nasty. And Fitzgerald made enough throws to open up some run lanes. Credit to them.
 
M.O.T said:
I have it at the same. Assuming you have a sizeable HFA built in?
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Yes. Largest one in SEC for sure. When I did full FBS PRs, I think the only one I had same or higher was Hawaii
 
Yeah I’ve been using my PRs and Steele’s HFAs to produce lines, then adjusting here or there depending on matchup, spot, etc. In this case I added a couple more to it.

The thing about the stadium expansion and the evolution of our fan base is it really gets empty and quiet quickly. Unless it’s a huge game, and close, it starts emptying at halftime and looks embarrassing by the 4th quarter. In most cases I would say Steele’s number wouldn’t even apply. But for games like this weekend it’s probably worth more, maybe 7 or so, and will be rocking unless or until Alabama separates the score.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
Kentucky can't score with Georgia, and LSU can't score with Alabama. Neither game will be competitive.
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A few years ago when people would talk about potential matchups between Alabama and Stanford, most analysts would say something along the lines of "You can't out-Alabama, Alabama." I think that describes the way I see the UK-UGA game. I don't think UK can play run game/defense against a team that does the same thing, but with much better talent. I lean UGA here
 
Recent history suggests that Alabama will win this weekend, but that it will be closer than anyone thought it would be. I think this year's Alabama offense can distort that thinking though, and I'm not sure it would be wrong. I know that the stadium will be loud and rocking, but the players have been in so many big moments, I don't think it will affect them as much as it would maybe some other teams, outside if our kicker is trying to hit a game winner at the end of the game.

Here's how I see LSU winning this game: Don't let Alabama get up early. LSU has very little chance if they are playing from multiple scores behind. Make Alabama settle for FG attempts instead of TDs on scoring opportunities. Force turnovers and don't turn it over. Pressure Tua over and over. Have long drives that eat up clock and end in points. Get the game to the 4th quarter with the lead or within 1 score. I think LSU has to do all of those things to win.

Bottom line on the game, I don't think LSU is built to beat this version of Alabama. I think 2008-2017 Alabama has a problem here. But this QB with these WR/RB/TE, I just think it's too much even for a very good defense in a crazy environment. I'm not ready to say it won't be competitive, but I do think it's a relatively comfortable win.
 
Agree on the thoughts in Baton Rouge. Everyone has the same blueprint for staying competitive with Alabama, but being able to do it is another matter. I wouldn’t be surprised if Aranda actually does come up with a plan that tests Alabama’s poise and patience more than anyone else has been able to, and he has a secondary better equipped to pull it off than anyone else they’ve faced. But even if all goes according to plan into the 4th you have to think the front door is still open. A 7-10 point game could become 17-21 pretty easily.

I’m not as sure about Georgia vs Kentucky. LSU was able to bully Georgia around a little bit in the trenches and our OL has been inconsistent or average at best. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kentucky can play with them up front. Fromm will make more plays than Wilson but not sure I could play it unless it gets below a TD.
 
M.O.T said:
Agree on the thoughts in Baton Rouge. Everyone has the same blueprint for staying competitive with Alabama, but being able to do it is another matter. I wouldn’t be surprised if Aranda actually does come up with a plan that tests Alabama’s poise and patience more than anyone else has been able to, and he has a secondary better equipped to pull it off than anyone else they’ve faced. But even if all goes according to plan into the 4th you have to think the front door is still open. A 7-10 point game could become 17-21 pretty easily.

I’m not as sure about Georgia vs Kentucky. LSU was able to bully Georgia around a little bit in the trenches and our OL has been inconsistent or average at best. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kentucky can play with them up front. Fromm will make more plays than Wilson but not sure I could play it unless it gets below a TD.
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Florida did have more success on the ground with their RBs than I would have thought against UGA as well. But I think the way this plays out is that it is close for a while, then UGA makes some plays on offense, and when UK tries to get back into it, they turn it over or find themselves in 3rd and long so many times that UGA eventually wears them down and wins by DD
 
Frank Costanza said:
What am I missing w/ La Tech getting 22.5 vs. Miss State? Decent team and MSU off a big win against A&M with Alabama on deck.
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per the Phil Steele book on last year's game:

"LT had a -87 yd "rush" after a bad snap....taking that out they were only outgained 459-402".

Remember that play? LOL.

LT is solid. Played well at LSU this year. I would expect them to play well again here.
 
gps_3 said:
Recent history suggests that Alabama will win this weekend, but that it will be closer than anyone thought it would be. I think this year's Alabama offense can distort that thinking though, and I'm not sure it would be wrong. I know that the stadium will be loud and rocking, but the players have been in so many big moments, I don't think it will affect them as much as it would maybe some other teams, outside if our kicker is trying to hit a game winner at the end of the game.

Here's how I see LSU winning this game: Don't let Alabama get up early. LSU has very little chance if they are playing from multiple scores behind. Make Alabama settle for FG attempts instead of TDs on scoring opportunities. Force turnovers and don't turn it over. Pressure Tua over and over. Have long drives that eat up clock and end in points. Get the game to the 4th quarter with the lead or within 1 score. I think LSU has to do all of those things to win.

Bottom line on the game, I don't think LSU is built to beat this version of Alabama. I think 2008-2017 Alabama has a problem here. But this QB with these WR/RB/TE, I just think it's too much even for a very good defense in a crazy environment. I'm not ready to say it won't be competitive, but I do think it's a relatively comfortable win.
Click to expand...

Both Kentucky and LSU are really going to struggle to score points. I don't necessarily believe the either or both will get shutout this week, but both definitely have shutout potential. I think the high water mark for both is probably around 10 points. This will provide a lot of time and opportunity for two offenses that can score.

I think we'll see something like this.

Georgia 31, Kentucky 3
Alabama 42, LSU 10
 
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gps_3 said:
I think it’s a bad rule rather than a bad call. Call was technically correct, the rule is horrendous
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I understand the technicalities of the rule - specifically that forcible conduct is not required to sustain the penalty - but it was still a bad call IMO. This was a push which included minor incidental helmet contact. This was a poor application of the rule. Poor judgement.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
I understand the technicalities of the rule - specifically that forcible conduct is not required to sustain the penalty - but it was still a bad call IMO. This was a push which included minor incidental helmet contact. This was a poor application of the rule. Poor judgement.
Click to expand...

I agree that it should’ve/could’ve not been called on the field, and that would’ve been best case. Once it went to review, it had to be upheld
 
Line being held still at -6 despite all the Florida love. When line being held before a key number I often find that this speaks for the dog
 
Anyone tell me bout gators corners being injured? This looks like another gravy mizzou under (like last week) if gators secondary is ok but I had heard/read somewhere gators had lot of injuries in secondary? If healthy I have no doubt they can shit on drew lock just like every other good defense has his whole career (no clue why he projected as a 1st rounder, big mistake!), tigers run defense is solid and don’t think gators have the passing game to exploit their secondary. If gators secondary is healthy this thing won’t sniff 58!!
 
Here is a key for LSU O...assuming they can actually get into the RZ vs Bama..they rank 125th out of 130 teams in Red Zone TD % with a TD coming on just 47% of their trips. 18 of 38.

And here is something I don't understand...Alabama is 75th in overall RZ scoring 82.98%, scoring on 39 of 47 trips. I get that most of their TDs come on bigger plays, but is there a problem here?
 
2daBank said:
Anyone tell me bout gators corners being injured? This looks like another gravy mizzou under (like last week) if gators secondary is ok but I had heard/read somewhere gators had lot of injuries in secondary? If healthy I have no doubt they can shit on drew lock just like every other good defense has his whole career (no clue why he projected as a 1st rounder, big mistake!), tigers run defense is solid and don’t think gators have the passing game to exploit their secondary. If gators secondary is healthy this thing won’t sniff 58!!
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this is from a few days ago but covers the depth situation in the secondary. Most importantly they were expecting Henderson to play this week.

https://www.gatorcountry.com/florida-gators-football/c-j-henderson-expected-back-against-missouri/
 
s--k said:
this is from a few days ago but covers the depth situation in the secondary. Most importantly they were expecting Henderson to play this week.

https://www.gatorcountry.com/florida-gators-football/c-j-henderson-expected-back-against-missouri/
Click to expand...

I just can’t see this thing gettin to 58. Love playing mizzou unders when they come up against legit defenses. We get such nice high numbers since they look like world beaters when playing Memphis or other garbage teams!! Really don’t see this getting out of the 40s, low to mid 20’s for each outta be most we see.
 
2daBank said:
I just can’t see this thing gettin to 58. Love playing mizzou unders when they come up against legit defenses. We get such nice high numbers since they look like world beaters when playing Memphis or other garbage teams!! Really don’t see this getting out of the 40s, low to mid 20’s for each outta be most we see.
Click to expand...


I hadn't thought about it, but that makes sense.

Looking back for what its worth...2012 21 pts, 2013 - 53 pts, 2014 55 pts, 2015 24 pts, 2016 54 pts, 2017 61 pts.
 
s--k said:
I hadn't thought about it, but that makes sense.

Looking back for what its worth...2012 21 pts, 2013 - 53 pts, 2014 55 pts, 2015 24 pts, 2016 54 pts, 2017 61 pts.
Click to expand...

I think that 45 tigers hung on gators last year should inspire the d for a little payback!
 
s--k said:
Here is a key for LSU O...assuming they can actually get into the RZ vs Bama..they rank 125th out of 130 teams in Red Zone TD % with a TD coming on just 47% of their trips. 18 of 38.

And here is something I don't understand...Alabama is 75th in overall RZ scoring 82.98%, scoring on 39 of 47 trips. I get that most of their TDs come on bigger plays, but is there a problem here?
Click to expand...


Not sure if that stat adjusts for it, but there have been at least a couple of instances where Alabama has turned it over on downs inside the RZ late in games. I don’t think there’s an issue there, other than missing some short FGs earlier in the season
 
Thanks GPS. That makes sense. Some downs and a few missed FGs. Their TD % in the RZ is 70.2%. At first glance I thought it would be higher. Then I looked at past seasons and that is higher than they were the past 3 years, so yeah - no issue!
 
Jimmydafreak said:
Both Kentucky and LSU are really going to struggle to score points. I don't necessarily believe the either or both will get shutout this week, but both definitely have shutout potential. I think the high water mark for both is probably around 10 points. This will provide a lot of time and opportunity for two offenses that can score.

I think we'll see something like this.

Georgia 31, Kentucky 3
Alabama 42, LSU 10
Click to expand...

Did LSU cross the 50 yard line on Saturday? I can't remember.
 
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