gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I wish I had the discipline and knowledge to put out a thread as extensive as @B.A.R. and @HUNT do each week, but I'll do my best to at least get the conversation started. Early thoughts on some of the games this weekend, will only highlight the bigger ones or ones I think there is an advantage:
AU @ Baylor: A lot of talk this offseason on how AU finally has a roster that can compete nationally. I can buy that it is better than it has been over the last few years, but I don't see it as top half of the SEC. Faulk the DE is great. The WR room looks really good. OL looks to be a strength as there is a lot of experience there. I think the DBs might be decent. Everywhere else is pretty meh to me though. I don't think much of Hugh Freeze as a game day coach, his strength is in talent accumulation (and blaming other people for his mistakes). Obviously a lot of their success is riding on Jackson Arnold looking more like the 5 star prep player he was and less like what he has shown on the field last year. The rumblings from camp weren't great, but he should be playing behind a better and healthier group at OL and WR than last year. Still, a turnover prone QB in a turnover prone system don't give me warm fuzzies when going on the road to face a tricky Dave Aranda defense. AU should be able to control the line of scrimmage, but if they can't, it will be a long day for the AU offense. I admittedly don't know much about Baylor, but the little I've looked into this game it feels like two pretty similar teams. I think I may like the under here, and if picking a side definitely lean home dog. Will monitor for now
Texas @ Ohio St is covered well in it's own thread, but I lean Texas here. More ?s for now with Ohio St than Longhorns
Tennessee vs Syracuse: Not sure why, but I think Cuse hangs around in this one. No matter what anyone tells you, losing your QB1 after spring is a bad thing, especially in this offense. We've seen the difference having an above average QB makes for Heupel with Hooker vs Milton and Nico. Sounds like the Vol defense should still be really good, even if it is down a tick from last year. Feels like a game that Tenn wins but it is still somewhat in question in the 4th quarter. Unless Aguilar is awesome, then it could go sideways
UGA vs Marshall: Under Kirby, UGA has not lit up the cream puffs, preferring to play a lot of players and keep everything vanilla so as to not give their bigger opponents any goof film to study. I think that probably will still be true here, but I think UGA will play with more of a chip on their shoulder than the swagger they've had the last several years. Marshall is so depleted, even a vanilla plan by UGA can easily get the cover here
Alabama @ FSU: Road games give me pause as I mentioned earlier, but like UGA above, I think Alabama will play with a massive chip on their shoulder and are itching to prove that they are still the marquee program in college football. I've said it here before, but Milroe's limitations severely reduced the playbook last year, and with Ty Simpson and Grubb back at OC, I am confident we will see much more of the DeBoer offense than a year ago. I don't know if Simpson will be great, good, bad or ugly, but I do know his skill set is more diverse which should open up our options. The WR room is really good. The RBs are probably above average, but I'm going to have to see it first. Same for the OL. I expect the defense to be really good. Probably one of the best back 7s in the country, especially the DBs. Kicking is a pretty big concern though. As it pertains to this game, I think a lot of people are conflating what Vandy and, to an extent OU, were able to do last year and what Gus Malzahn runs. But the differences between the veer option that Vandy runs and that OU implemented in the bye week and the RPO/ZR that Gus runs are pretty stark. It's not a good matchup for the FSU offense, assuming they run Gus' offense. Unless Castellanos puts his money where his mouth is and has a career game, it's going to be tough for FSU to move the ball consistently. On offense, Alabama will most likely try to pound the ball against the 3-3-5 that FSU brought in this year. If the run game is working, then that obviously makes it far easier on Simpson, who I expect to use his legs more than people think, both in this game and the season. 2 TDs is a lot to ask on the road, but I do think Alabama does pull away in this one as it will take longer for the FSU rebuild to take hold, especially against an experienced and talented roster, even at home. The weather certainly bears watching though. It may be enough to keep away as I mentioned earlier
LSU @ Clemson: I think these are two pretty similar teams, but I lean Clemson for a few reasons: HFA, Clem DL vs LSU new OL, LSU's struggles to run the ball, and I'm still not sold that such a portal heavy roster is good enough to beat the really good teams that are more "home grown"
Looking forward to chatting it up with everyone this season. Cheers!
AU @ Baylor: A lot of talk this offseason on how AU finally has a roster that can compete nationally. I can buy that it is better than it has been over the last few years, but I don't see it as top half of the SEC. Faulk the DE is great. The WR room looks really good. OL looks to be a strength as there is a lot of experience there. I think the DBs might be decent. Everywhere else is pretty meh to me though. I don't think much of Hugh Freeze as a game day coach, his strength is in talent accumulation (and blaming other people for his mistakes). Obviously a lot of their success is riding on Jackson Arnold looking more like the 5 star prep player he was and less like what he has shown on the field last year. The rumblings from camp weren't great, but he should be playing behind a better and healthier group at OL and WR than last year. Still, a turnover prone QB in a turnover prone system don't give me warm fuzzies when going on the road to face a tricky Dave Aranda defense. AU should be able to control the line of scrimmage, but if they can't, it will be a long day for the AU offense. I admittedly don't know much about Baylor, but the little I've looked into this game it feels like two pretty similar teams. I think I may like the under here, and if picking a side definitely lean home dog. Will monitor for now
Texas @ Ohio St is covered well in it's own thread, but I lean Texas here. More ?s for now with Ohio St than Longhorns
Tennessee vs Syracuse: Not sure why, but I think Cuse hangs around in this one. No matter what anyone tells you, losing your QB1 after spring is a bad thing, especially in this offense. We've seen the difference having an above average QB makes for Heupel with Hooker vs Milton and Nico. Sounds like the Vol defense should still be really good, even if it is down a tick from last year. Feels like a game that Tenn wins but it is still somewhat in question in the 4th quarter. Unless Aguilar is awesome, then it could go sideways
UGA vs Marshall: Under Kirby, UGA has not lit up the cream puffs, preferring to play a lot of players and keep everything vanilla so as to not give their bigger opponents any goof film to study. I think that probably will still be true here, but I think UGA will play with more of a chip on their shoulder than the swagger they've had the last several years. Marshall is so depleted, even a vanilla plan by UGA can easily get the cover here
Alabama @ FSU: Road games give me pause as I mentioned earlier, but like UGA above, I think Alabama will play with a massive chip on their shoulder and are itching to prove that they are still the marquee program in college football. I've said it here before, but Milroe's limitations severely reduced the playbook last year, and with Ty Simpson and Grubb back at OC, I am confident we will see much more of the DeBoer offense than a year ago. I don't know if Simpson will be great, good, bad or ugly, but I do know his skill set is more diverse which should open up our options. The WR room is really good. The RBs are probably above average, but I'm going to have to see it first. Same for the OL. I expect the defense to be really good. Probably one of the best back 7s in the country, especially the DBs. Kicking is a pretty big concern though. As it pertains to this game, I think a lot of people are conflating what Vandy and, to an extent OU, were able to do last year and what Gus Malzahn runs. But the differences between the veer option that Vandy runs and that OU implemented in the bye week and the RPO/ZR that Gus runs are pretty stark. It's not a good matchup for the FSU offense, assuming they run Gus' offense. Unless Castellanos puts his money where his mouth is and has a career game, it's going to be tough for FSU to move the ball consistently. On offense, Alabama will most likely try to pound the ball against the 3-3-5 that FSU brought in this year. If the run game is working, then that obviously makes it far easier on Simpson, who I expect to use his legs more than people think, both in this game and the season. 2 TDs is a lot to ask on the road, but I do think Alabama does pull away in this one as it will take longer for the FSU rebuild to take hold, especially against an experienced and talented roster, even at home. The weather certainly bears watching though. It may be enough to keep away as I mentioned earlier
LSU @ Clemson: I think these are two pretty similar teams, but I lean Clemson for a few reasons: HFA, Clem DL vs LSU new OL, LSU's struggles to run the ball, and I'm still not sold that such a portal heavy roster is good enough to beat the really good teams that are more "home grown"
Looking forward to chatting it up with everyone this season. Cheers!
