SEC Week 1 Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Week 1 games and lines:

Thursday 9.2:

Tennessee (-35.5) vs Bowling Green

Saturday 9.4:

UK (-31) vs La Monroe
Arkansas (-20) vs Rice
Alabama (-19) vs Miami
Mizzou (-14.5) vs Central Michigan
Miss St (-23.5) vs La Tech
AU (-37) vs Akron
Florida (-23.5) vs FAU
UGA (+3) vs Clemson
aTm (-28.5) vs Kent ST
LSU (-3) @ UCLA
SCAR vs E Illinois
Vandy vs E Tennessee St


Mon 9.6

Ole Miss (-10) vs Louisville


Thoughts?
 
For the first time in 3 seasons, I'm not blindly betting Alabama 1H ATS, Over and TT Over. While I think the offense is capable of scoring plenty of points, I don't see them being as explosive as they were. At least not at first.
 
Everyone saying its Georgia's year. Tons of pressure. Win now mode. And yet they come limping pretty bad to face the best D in CFB. Kind of lines up pretty well for Clemson to lay down a beating.
 
Well, Miami of FL tt under should be looked at in my estimation. We should see a 21.5/22.5 for that as currently construed.

Your thoughts on that @gps_3 ?

Depth, what ya think? I hate getting soft 4th quarter defense in those sorts of bets.

King vs a big, good defense is a recipe for a bad day at the office for his offenses imo.
 
B.A.R. said:
Well, Miami of FL tt under should be looked at in my estimation. We should see a 21.5/22.5 for that as currently construed.

Your thoughts on that @gps_3 ?

Depth, what ya think? I hate getting soft 4th quarter defense in those sorts of bets.

King vs a big, good defense is a recipe for a bad day at the office for his offenses imo.
Click to expand...
Front 7 is as deep as it has ever been. DL has no superstars, but 8-9 legit SEC players. LBs are among the best in the nation. Secondary would be the concern about any back door covers, especially if it's a situation where Miami's first team O is still out there chucking it around against guys 8 months out of high school

Maybe some 1st half under stuff is worth a look, on both sides
 
I’m sure we have talked out our LSU/UCLA thoughts.

Haven’t been following but down to 3? It’s college so we do have to talk motivation….it’s a tough one. Tigers wanna put on for LA? Distracted?

Man LA Monroe must be awful. That’s a huge line
 
twinkie13 said:
I’m sure we have talked out our LSU/UCLA thoughts.

Haven’t been following but down to 3? It’s college so we do have to talk motivation….it’s a tough one. Tigers wanna put on for LA? Distracted?

Man LA Monroe must be awful. That’s a huge line
Click to expand...

Just thinking - pac has placed SEC few times here last several years. Have they ever come out on top ? Thinking Auburn vs oregon; washington huskies played in some. SEC always wins. Line movement guessing from hawaii performance and to that I'd say who cares what they did to hawaii ? hawaii stinks. They are stepping up against a great dline and facing a better coach (i'll take ed vs chip) and a better program with more talent. I think it's more likely than not last year was an aberration on defense for lsu and if thats the case as the history suggests then UCLA is in trouble. They would have the worse of the 2 defenses and a worse passing game.

The trouble I have with the big mismatches (monroe, kent, akron, bowling green) is being able to separate differences. I like them all in a way but they aren't all winners. I'm on tennessee over bowling green and not auburn over akron - why one over the other ? those reasons are small in these games and lots of variability. they probably both have a similar probability of hitting.
 
EL CAPO said:
Just thinking - pac has placed SEC few times here last several years. Have they ever come out on top ? Thinking Auburn vs oregon; washington huskies played in some. SEC always wins. Line movement guessing from hawaii performance and to that I'd say who cares what they did to hawaii ? hawaii stinks. They are stepping up against a great dline and facing a better coach (i'll take ed vs chip) and a better program with more talent. I think it's more likely than not last year was an aberration on defense for lsu and if thats the case as the history suggests then UCLA is in trouble. They would have the worse of the 2 defenses and a worse passing game.

The trouble I have with the big mismatches (monroe, kent, akron, bowling green) is being able to separate differences. I like them all in a way but they aren't all winners. I'm on tennessee over bowling green and not auburn over akron - why one over the other ? those reasons are small in these games and lots of variability. they probably both have a similar probability of hitting.
Click to expand...
I am leaning Tennessee as well. I can see this being a game where they just unleash the angst of the last few months (years?) on an overmatched team. And with AU, I can see the new coaching staff keeping the pedal down to make a good first impression. Because the road is way uphill for both teams. Kentucky and aTm are interesting because personnel-wise, there is no contest. It will be how much does each want to win by. It helps that they both have strong defenses, so that usually helps close the back door and can lead to turnovers and easy, quick scores. Kentucky breaking in a new offense so they may try a lot of things to work out the kinks, or the veteran that Stoops is will get a comfortable lead and then bleed the clock. Since I generally have a high volume of bets, I'm sure I'll find a way to be on the big favorites, maybe TT or 1H stuff
 
Just thinking - pac has placed SEC few times here last several years. Have they ever come out on top ?
Click to expand...

Cal (+3.5) beat Ole Miss in 2017. Rebels finished 6-6 that season Cal went 5-7. UCLA (+4.5) beat A&M in 2018's season opener with the Josh Rosen comeback (34 points down). 2013 Oregon (-28) beat an eventual 5-7 Tennessee team.

Alabama beat USC and Washington in 2016. Auburn beat Washington State in 2013 and Washington & Oregon back-to-back years 2018 & 2019. Texas A&M beat Arizona State 2015 and UCLA 2016 (OT). Others...LSU has beat Oregon neutral site 2011. Georgia has beaten Arizona State in a home-and-home. Probably don't need to go back much further. That makes 10-3 last baker's dozen's worth of games.
 
s--k said:
Cal (+3.5) beat Ole Miss in 2017. Rebels finished 6-6 that season Cal went 5-7. UCLA (+4.5) beat A&M in 2018's season opener with the Josh Rosen comeback (34 points down). 2013 Oregon (-28) beat an eventual 5-7 Tennessee team.

Alabama beat USC and Washington in 2016. Auburn beat Washington State in 2013 and Washington & Oregon back-to-back years 2018 & 2019. Texas A&M beat Arizona State 2015 and UCLA 2016 (OT). Others...LSU has beat Oregon neutral site 2011. Georgia has beaten Arizona State in a home-and-home. Probably don't need to go back much further. That makes 10-3 last baker's dozen's worth of games.
Click to expand...
LSU blasted Washington 41-3 in 2012

Just throwing it in there lol
 
JohnnyGambler said:
Everyone saying its Georgia's year. Tons of pressure. Win now mode. And yet they come limping pretty bad to face the best D in CFB. Kind of lines up pretty well for Clemson to lay down a beating.
Click to expand...
If Tyler Davis is out (rumors regarding CoVid), that defense is a lot worse. He's probably worth 7 points.
 
On the other hand:

www.si.com

Georgia Head Trainer Tests Positive for COVID

Georgia's head athletic trainer Ron Courson has tested positive for COVID DawgsDaily has confirmed, as first reported by AJC.com. The positive test was a
www.si.com www.si.com

If the Dawgs' head trainer is CoVid+, what does that mean for all the players he has been in contact with?
 
I’m pumped for that UGA vs Clemson game. BAR got me thinking though….lotta turmoil makes interesting
 
LSU dropped to -2.5 and I had to bite. I guess there's a coaching mismatch in UCLA's favor, but the talent level isn't close IMO.

Took AU and UK as big faves. Will probably get involved in TT and 1H bets with them tomorrow when my local releases them

I'm on Clemson, and will possibly add to it. Bottom line is I don't trust Kirby to turn his OC loose, and I'm also not sold on Daniels. Can't remember the last time UGA won a big game, so I'll pay to see Kirby not get completely outclassed on gameday

And, homer alert, I will be on Alabama in multiple ways. Took them ATS so far, think this is a game we ultimately win by at least 3 TDs. I think our defense comes to play tomorrow. If you don't know his name by now, you will know Will Anderson tomorrow evening. D'Eriq King certainly will. I'm thinking 45-17

Good luck to all, I will be around some tomorrow, 100% chance I will be drunk and obnoxious in the in-game thread by halftime of Clemson-UGA
 
The Kiffin news is interesting for Ole Miss. Obviously it’s good to have a couple of days to absorb the news and adjust. It will be Lebby’s show on offense, and I think Lebby vs. Brown, DC at Louisville, is still a complete mismatch.
 
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