gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Saturday, November 18, 2023
SEC vs FCS Week 12 Discussion
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s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Abilene Christian has been outgained in every game this year after week 1. Depsite that they are 5-5 SU and 7-3 ATS, 3-3 ATS as dogs. I have the closing line at 15.5 in their game vs North Texas which went final at 45-31 (some had UNT winning or pushing ATS in that one). UNT led 31-17 HT. I did not watch or was involved, but I had the impression that UNT wasn't very interested in continuing the 1H effort leading to them only winning by 14. UNT outgained them 530-387 (7.0-5.5) with a 209-170 (5.2-5.2) RY edge.
In their losses they have been outgained by an average of 222.2 ypg and outscored by 7 vs UIW, 35 vs UCA, 14 vs UNT, 38 vs SUU and 1 vs Tarleton last week. Run D has been a huge problem for them in those games. Other than UNT, Tarleton ran for 240 (6.5), SUU ran for 308 (6.4), UCA ran for 380 (8.4). ACU scored 22.4 ppg in their 5 losses.
Over / Unders are 5-5, avg total 58.25
In their losses they have been outgained by an average of 222.2 ypg and outscored by 7 vs UIW, 35 vs UCA, 14 vs UNT, 38 vs SUU and 1 vs Tarleton last week. Run D has been a huge problem for them in those games. Other than UNT, Tarleton ran for 240 (6.5), SUU ran for 308 (6.4), UCA ran for 380 (8.4). ACU scored 22.4 ppg in their 5 losses.
Over / Unders are 5-5, avg total 58.25
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s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Chattanooga has got a really good season out of UCLA transfer QB Chase Artopoeus who previously only held FGs and xpts at UCLA. He has thrown for 2672, 63% with a 20-7 ratio. he's mobile and can run, but would rather throw.
OK run team, kind of average, depend more on what they get out of their passing game and lead by the D. Have had some weaker than expected offensive games as favorites either in scoring or yardage.
A lot of the So Con teams aren't consistent week-to-week, they will play a good game and have a B game the following week. Vs the best competition and defenses UTC only scored 14 vs Furman on 357y (5.1) with one of their TDs being a lucky/fluke tipped pass long catch and run. Vs another good D in Mercer, they only scored 22 on 351y (4.9). They had some good offensive games vs some weak Ds and some average offensive games vs some weak to average Ds as well.
They themselves are a good, not great, defensive team. Furman is the best D in the league and Chattanooga is just one step behind them. Good pressure and sacking D with good TFL production also. They can be run on, allowed 200+ rush yards three times vs UNA, WCU and VMI - those aren't necessarily good power run teams - then other times they limit the run quite well as they did vs strong running team Furman (held them to 68 (2.3) and also Mercer who they held to 0 net yards on 28 att.
They are 7-3 and should have an at-large playoff birth locked up, although the at-large birth from the So Con may be close and controversial this year as 3 teams after the AQ team have a case to be made.
UTC is 6-4 ATS, 3-1 ATS as dogs, but short lines... was +1.5 to Furman, lost 14-17. Was +1 to Mercer, won 22-10. Was +3.5 to WCU, lost 50-52. +6.5 at Samford and won 47-24
Totals are 5-5 Over / Under, avg total 52.7.
OK run team, kind of average, depend more on what they get out of their passing game and lead by the D. Have had some weaker than expected offensive games as favorites either in scoring or yardage.
A lot of the So Con teams aren't consistent week-to-week, they will play a good game and have a B game the following week. Vs the best competition and defenses UTC only scored 14 vs Furman on 357y (5.1) with one of their TDs being a lucky/fluke tipped pass long catch and run. Vs another good D in Mercer, they only scored 22 on 351y (4.9). They had some good offensive games vs some weak Ds and some average offensive games vs some weak to average Ds as well.
They themselves are a good, not great, defensive team. Furman is the best D in the league and Chattanooga is just one step behind them. Good pressure and sacking D with good TFL production also. They can be run on, allowed 200+ rush yards three times vs UNA, WCU and VMI - those aren't necessarily good power run teams - then other times they limit the run quite well as they did vs strong running team Furman (held them to 68 (2.3) and also Mercer who they held to 0 net yards on 28 att.
They are 7-3 and should have an at-large playoff birth locked up, although the at-large birth from the So Con may be close and controversial this year as 3 teams after the AQ team have a case to be made.
UTC is 6-4 ATS, 3-1 ATS as dogs, but short lines... was +1.5 to Furman, lost 14-17. Was +1 to Mercer, won 22-10. Was +3.5 to WCU, lost 50-52. +6.5 at Samford and won 47-24
Totals are 5-5 Over / Under, avg total 52.7.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I almost always take the under in this game for Alabama. There are two usual gamer scripts: Alabama's starters get up early and then are pulled. Basically a depth building game with lots of competition among the backups, so don't quite see them stepping off the gas, though more mistakes are being made. I don't like taking the other team in this situation, because the possibility of 52-0 is there. Or, Alabama sleeps walk through it and and the game ends up in a 30-10 type game.
We have some starters that are banged up (it's why we schedule this game), so I can see a lot of guys getting little to no playing time. It's all about getting healthy for AU and UGA and beyond. I could see a fast start with the intention to get Milroe and most of the starters out by halftime, but even with the last two weeks, I can see a slow start even with them trying 100%. Not sure I'll have anything in this game
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I'm not in touch with UTC, more of a broader knowledge base. So I don't know what they might be thinking. I would assume with the likelihood they get a playoff game the week of Nov 25th, I can't see them with any kind of statement to try and make or prove anything and also they will likely want to get out healthy with their own eyes on something bigger beyond this week.
I don't know what kind of team Texas A&M has, and with Jimbo now I really don't know, but that one I would think there is opportunity for aTm and Over in that one without knowing the numbers just given how the ACU D has performed and still think their O can contribute to the scoring - and this will be their last game, so they will want to go out on more of some kind of positive as opposed to UTC.
With the UTC - Bama one, Under seems good because UTC isn't going to field the greatest O vs an SEC D anyway and if they aren't full go on their players and stuff, holding back, that should limit points as well.
I don't know what kind of team Texas A&M has, and with Jimbo now I really don't know, but that one I would think there is opportunity for aTm and Over in that one without knowing the numbers just given how the ACU D has performed and still think their O can contribute to the scoring - and this will be their last game, so they will want to go out on more of some kind of positive as opposed to UTC.
With the UTC - Bama one, Under seems good because UTC isn't going to field the greatest O vs an SEC D anyway and if they aren't full go on their players and stuff, holding back, that should limit points as well.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I would have had it closer to PK a week ago, but just like Alabama is finding it's stride, so is UGA and they look really impressive, so I think the line is probably about right. Though we're 4-0 in Atlanta against them. There will be plenty to talk about leading up to it, but I like our chances. I think we match up very well. I think the biggest concern is that UGA has proven to be far more disciplined and avoids the big mistake, whereas Alabama still has some lingering doubts in that department, despite the improvement throughout the season.
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
I dont see Georgia not covering, let alone losing today. But it's only their 2nd "true" road game of the season, besides Auburn. I don't count Vandy. The stadium was 85% red. Florida was neutral in JVille.
Georgia was probably fortunate to win the Auburn game. But I think that was the game Beck grew up, leading them to a late GW td drive.
You'd expect a much better effort today from Tenn after the debacle in Como last Sat.
Georgia was probably fortunate to win the Auburn game. But I think that was the game Beck grew up, leading them to a late GW td drive.
You'd expect a much better effort today from Tenn after the debacle in Como last Sat.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I'm not sure that Tennessee can do anything on either side of the ball to make UGA nervous. Maybe they can get to Beck and speed up his clock. This really was a perfect schedule for this UGA team to find itself and learn to play together. I guess the crowd can affect the Bulldogs, but the way they are built, they will just body blow UT all game until the Vols make a critical mistake and the dam bursts. I think I'm staying away from this one. Only way I can back UT is 1st half. Might look to get involved at halftime based on the way the 1st half shakes out, provided I get to watch much of it
I'm taking New Mexico St today, based on the lookahead angle. It may be a bad bet
Also taking a flyer on Florida. Mizzou off 2 tough games in a row, just breaking into the top 10. Think Florida can keep it close
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
My caution on NMSU is that they may just not give a fuck at all about this game. Clinched a spot in their title game last week, been having to get up for every game. A big part of their offense is Pavia running and I'm sure Kill doesn't want him getting hit a bunch by SEC guys.
Marsski
MAC Marvel
Agree with this....also Pavia has a bad hammy right now so he may be hampered or sitting out
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Good thing AU doesn't have a bunch of SEC guys on their roster lol. But great point. I may buy off, or maybe consider the under. Sounds like both teams may just want to GTFO of there today
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
This is a really good point. I've always struggled this week trying to figure what mid-major has the motivation to play at a top flight level in these buy games.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
It's got to be tough for the coaches of these teams that are pretty good for their level. As mentioned, this is a team that is playing for their conference championship, so they are pretty good. Have to balance between proving yourself on the field against the big boys and not unnecessarily hurting your chances of achieving the more realistic goals. Maybe see how the 1st half goes straight up, and if you're in it, go for it. But if you're not, then empty the benches so everyone gets the chance to play in a game like this
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
There’s little doubt that AU spent all week on Alabama, but this is still shocking
