NCAAF Week 15 Predictions: 2 SEC Teams On Upset Alert
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Missouri Tigers
Saturday, December 12, 2020 at noon ET (SEC Network) at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field in Columbia, Missouri
Misleading Numbers
Georgia quarterback JT Daniels has attractive passing numbers that may compel a casual observer to either back his team or to stay away from the game.
But in his two starts thus far, Daniels has benefitted from facing extremely competition.
In one game, which composes the bulk of his statistical allure, he thrashed a Mississippi State defense that ranks 114th nationally in opposing passing yards per game.
Hs other start came against a South Carolina defense which has more or less given up on the season. Among other starters, the team’s top two cornerbacks had opted out of the season.
So Daniels hasn’t really done anything to merit trust in him, especially when you consider that wide receiver is still very much a position of weakness for this team, since it was last year even while Lawrence Cager remained on the team.
Missouri Pass Defense
Last year and this year, Missouri’s pass defense has created some impressive statistics that make it underrated.
Facing Alabama and Florida, though, will yield negative statistical repercussions for any team’s defense.
Except when facing those two teams, both of whom are led by Heisman candidates at quarterbacks and sure-fire first-rounders at wide receiver or tight end, and except for a shootout-type contest with LSU’s then starting quarterback and star wide receiver, Missouri’s pass defense has held the opponent in check.
Despite their tough schedule with regards to pass defense, the Tigers own the SEC’s third-best pass defense as measured by opposing pass yards per game.
Missouri Offense vs. Georgia Defense
I like Missouri because its offense will be able to maintain balance while Georgia’s fails to.
It’s easy to assume that the Bulldog defense will be strong because that is the reputation which Georgia’s defense has merited over the years. This reputation, a derivation of elapsed years, surely explains the large spread you see at sports betting sites.
But this year, this positive reputation remains undeserved and several examples show why.
In pass defense, the Georgia Bulldogs allowed Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers to have his most efficient game of the season as measured by completion percentage and one of his stronger games overall.
Expect Tiger quarterback Connor Bazelak likewise to deliver a strong performance against a statistically middle-of-the-road Georgia defense.
Characteristically, Bazelak has a bit of the gunslinger in him. But he doesn’t tend to throw interceptions — he’s thrown two this season.
Bazelak is regularly exceeding 300 yards while continuing to display the efficiency needed to sustain drives against Georgia.
He’ll keep the Bulldog defense more than honest to create more space for one of the SEC’s top running back draft prospects in Larry Rountree, whose physicality makes him a tough, consistent, hard-nosed runner that linebackers like Alabama’s Dylan Moses have to fear and suffer humiliation from.
Best Bet: Bulldogs +13.5 at -111 with Bookmaker
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Saturday, December 12, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network) at Vanderbilt Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee
Series History
We don’t care about Vanderbilt’s record — the Commodore are still 0-8.
We also don’t care about any lack of effort or any incompetence that the Commodores have displayed thus far.
All of that goes out the window for a rivalry game like this.
Recent history proves my point because annually terrible Vanderbilt teams play their best football against in-state rival Tennessee.
So we get a lot of value at the top sportsbooks as Vanderbilt’s season-long play drives the spread in Tennessee’s favor while the Commodores will invest an exceptional degree of effort into achieving the upset win.
Vandy has won three of the last four meetings between these teams despite being an underdog in all four of those contests.
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
The development of quarterback Ken Seals is one reason why the Commodores are better than their record suggests and better than they were earlier in the season.
Seals is an efficient passer completing 66.1 percent of his passes. He is now also cutting down on his mistakes. While he has thrown nine interceptions this season, he has only thrown one in his past three games.
As a pro-style quarterback, Seals is known for his confident pocket presence, his high-quality touch, his vision, and his accuracy.
With these traits, Seals will be productive against a Volunteer pass defense that ranks 107th nationally in opposing passing yards per game as a result of its struggling and disappointing defensive backs.
Tennessee Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
The key difference between both teams is the quarterback position.
Tennessee has struggled all year with low-ceiling quarterbacks who struggle to throw downfield.
Whereas the Commodores employ their current starting quarterback by choice, the Volunteers employ theirs out of necessity and desperation.
Freshman Harrison Bailey is still raw, which is why he’s thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season, although garbage-time play against Florida helped his numbers.
A team wants to run the ball well to help out its quarterback especially when he is so young and raw. But multiple injuries or COVID-related issues along the offensive line will deter the Vols from flourishing on the ground.
The Verdict
For the above reasons, expect Vanderbilt to threaten favored Tennessee. History suggests that an upset will happen, as does a comparison primarily of both teams’ respective passing attacks.
Best Bet: Commodores +16 at -108 with Heritage
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Missouri Tigers
Saturday, December 12, 2020 at noon ET (SEC Network) at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field in Columbia, Missouri
Misleading Numbers
Georgia quarterback JT Daniels has attractive passing numbers that may compel a casual observer to either back his team or to stay away from the game.
But in his two starts thus far, Daniels has benefitted from facing extremely competition.
In one game, which composes the bulk of his statistical allure, he thrashed a Mississippi State defense that ranks 114th nationally in opposing passing yards per game.
Hs other start came against a South Carolina defense which has more or less given up on the season. Among other starters, the team’s top two cornerbacks had opted out of the season.
So Daniels hasn’t really done anything to merit trust in him, especially when you consider that wide receiver is still very much a position of weakness for this team, since it was last year even while Lawrence Cager remained on the team.
Missouri Pass Defense
Last year and this year, Missouri’s pass defense has created some impressive statistics that make it underrated.
Facing Alabama and Florida, though, will yield negative statistical repercussions for any team’s defense.
Except when facing those two teams, both of whom are led by Heisman candidates at quarterbacks and sure-fire first-rounders at wide receiver or tight end, and except for a shootout-type contest with LSU’s then starting quarterback and star wide receiver, Missouri’s pass defense has held the opponent in check.
Despite their tough schedule with regards to pass defense, the Tigers own the SEC’s third-best pass defense as measured by opposing pass yards per game.
Missouri Offense vs. Georgia Defense
I like Missouri because its offense will be able to maintain balance while Georgia’s fails to.
It’s easy to assume that the Bulldog defense will be strong because that is the reputation which Georgia’s defense has merited over the years. This reputation, a derivation of elapsed years, surely explains the large spread you see at sports betting sites.
But this year, this positive reputation remains undeserved and several examples show why.
In pass defense, the Georgia Bulldogs allowed Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers to have his most efficient game of the season as measured by completion percentage and one of his stronger games overall.
Expect Tiger quarterback Connor Bazelak likewise to deliver a strong performance against a statistically middle-of-the-road Georgia defense.
Characteristically, Bazelak has a bit of the gunslinger in him. But he doesn’t tend to throw interceptions — he’s thrown two this season.
Bazelak is regularly exceeding 300 yards while continuing to display the efficiency needed to sustain drives against Georgia.
He’ll keep the Bulldog defense more than honest to create more space for one of the SEC’s top running back draft prospects in Larry Rountree, whose physicality makes him a tough, consistent, hard-nosed runner that linebackers like Alabama’s Dylan Moses have to fear and suffer humiliation from.
Best Bet: Bulldogs +13.5 at -111 with Bookmaker
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Saturday, December 12, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network) at Vanderbilt Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee
Series History
We don’t care about Vanderbilt’s record — the Commodore are still 0-8.
We also don’t care about any lack of effort or any incompetence that the Commodores have displayed thus far.
All of that goes out the window for a rivalry game like this.
Recent history proves my point because annually terrible Vanderbilt teams play their best football against in-state rival Tennessee.
So we get a lot of value at the top sportsbooks as Vanderbilt’s season-long play drives the spread in Tennessee’s favor while the Commodores will invest an exceptional degree of effort into achieving the upset win.
Vandy has won three of the last four meetings between these teams despite being an underdog in all four of those contests.
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
The development of quarterback Ken Seals is one reason why the Commodores are better than their record suggests and better than they were earlier in the season.
Seals is an efficient passer completing 66.1 percent of his passes. He is now also cutting down on his mistakes. While he has thrown nine interceptions this season, he has only thrown one in his past three games.
As a pro-style quarterback, Seals is known for his confident pocket presence, his high-quality touch, his vision, and his accuracy.
With these traits, Seals will be productive against a Volunteer pass defense that ranks 107th nationally in opposing passing yards per game as a result of its struggling and disappointing defensive backs.
Tennessee Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
The key difference between both teams is the quarterback position.
Tennessee has struggled all year with low-ceiling quarterbacks who struggle to throw downfield.
Whereas the Commodores employ their current starting quarterback by choice, the Volunteers employ theirs out of necessity and desperation.
Freshman Harrison Bailey is still raw, which is why he’s thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season, although garbage-time play against Florida helped his numbers.
A team wants to run the ball well to help out its quarterback especially when he is so young and raw. But multiple injuries or COVID-related issues along the offensive line will deter the Vols from flourishing on the ground.
The Verdict
For the above reasons, expect Vanderbilt to threaten favored Tennessee. History suggests that an upset will happen, as does a comparison primarily of both teams’ respective passing attacks.
Best Bet: Commodores +16 at -108 with Heritage
