NCAAF Week 14 Predictions; 2 SEC Teams on Upset Alert
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Missouri Tigers
Saturday, December 5, 2020 at noon ET (SEC Network) at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field in Columbia, Missouri
Arkansas Offense vs. Missouri Defense
Missouri is just the team that Arkansas wants to face.
In all three of Arkansas’ wins, it has won the turnover battle with its opponent.
So one reason why you should like Arkansas is that Missouri ranks 108th nationally in takeaways per game. The Tigers will lose both the turnover battle and the game.
Quarterback Feleipe Franks is a big reason why the Razorbacks will avoid turning the ball over at least too many times.
For the first time in his four-year playing career, Franks has a touchdown-to-interception ratio that is better than four-to-one. He was thrown 17 touchdowns to four interceptions.
Part of why Franks does not throw many interceptions is that he does not need to do too much with his arm.
He has an absolute stud in Treylon Burks who can catch short passes and make large gains out of them.
Mike Woods also helps him out by getting open downfield. Currently, he averages over 20 yards per reception.
Missouri’s pass defense ranks 59th nationally as measured by opposing passer rating.
It has been very hit-or-miss: the Tiger pass defense excels against abysmal competition while getting gashed by the SEC’s more productive passing games.
Right now, Franks ranks fourth in the SEC in passing yards. So by al accounts, he’s one of the more productive quarterbacks in the SEC.
Can Missouri Stop The Run?
Arkansas’ weapons don’t end with Franks and his targets.
At running back, Trelon Smith has taken over the backfield with his 5.3 YPC. Smith is notoriously shifty.
Missouri has faced a number of decent running backs who haven’t benefitted from the supportive pass attack that will encourage Trelon Smith.
The Tigers have faced capably balanced offenses that feature more powerful running backs.
So Arkansas will present a fairly new challenge for Missouri with a good passing game and a shifty feature running back.
Missouri Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
Arkansas’ defense is opportunistic. It stands a good chance of winning the turnover battle because the Razorbacks rank eighth nationally in interceptions per game.
Tiger quarterback Connor Bazelak has always been known to be somewhat of a gunslinger.
It will only take a mistake from him for the Razorbacks to turn him over.
The help that Tiger backers are counting on him to have is overstated.
While the Razorback run defense is not rated highly, this is primarily due to the fact that opposing offensive lines have bullied the Razorback front seven.
But by comparing offensive line weights and sizes, it’s apparent that the Tigers lack the sort of physicality that the likes of Texas A&M has utilized in order to gash the Razorback front seven.
So the Razorback defense can hold its own this Saturday and generate turnovers, too.
The Verdict
Missouri is favored at the top sports betting sites, although this is the kind of team that Arkansas beats.
For the above reasons, I am placing Missouri on upset alert.
Best Bet: Razorbacks +2.5 at -103 with Heritage
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, December 4, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network) at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky
Spread Is Too High
In favoring Kentucky double digits, oddsmakers seem to be expecting that bettors automatically want to fade South Carolina.
While the Gamecocks are suffering a losing streak, they have suffered from facing competition that contains prolific components like Georgia’s defense last week.
But they have remained competitive against certain teams. For example, they only lost by a touchdown in their second-to-last game, which was against Missouri.
Kentucky does not deserve to be a double-digit favorite.
The Wildcats have played nine games so far, including one against bottom-feeder Vanderbilt.
They would have only covered the spread in two games: against a ridiculous Tennessee team that threw two pick-sixes and against a Mississippi State team whose wholly restructured offense was still dysfunctional.
Key Players
The difference between Mississippi State (at that point in time) and Tennessee is that it can execute in the passing game.
Quarterback Collin Hill is familiar with Mike Bobo’s offense from their days at Colorado State together.
Luke Doty, though, could remain the starter after accomplishing a 166.3 passer rating against Georgia’s defense, although he didn’t accrue the 59 rushing yards that he did against Missouri.
The absence of top wide receiver Shi Smith has amplified the negative perception surrounding the Gamecocks.
But Coach Bobo has affirmed that Smith is good to go. Smith is the team’s leading receiver because he is a playmaker particularly with his unique speed.
Meanwhile, running back Kevin Harris will approach his current 7.1 season YPC average against a Kentucky defense that ranks middle-of-the-road nationally in stopping the run.
Kentucky Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
When I see a team favored by double digits, I want to know that it can move the ball downfield by at least consistently gashing the opposing defense.
But Kentucky’s Terry Wilson is a very ho-hum quarterback. He ranks 92nd nationally in passing yards while averaging a paltry 5.8 YPA.
He is uncomfortable throwing downfield. His effort against Florida shows that he will get intercepted if he presses at all.
Kentucky has scored 10 points or fewer in three of its past four games because it constantly has to grind drives out as moving the ball is difficult for it, which is why UK ranks 108th nationally in yards per play.
The Verdict
Behind a lack of vertical options and instead a bevy of grinding runners, Kentucky resembles Missouri in being extremely unexciting as a double-digit favorite.
South Carolina features more of a playmaker at quarterback and has weapons at the running back and wide receiver positions to keep Kentucky on upset alert.
Best Bet: Gamecocks +11.5 at -108 with Heritage
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Missouri Tigers
Saturday, December 5, 2020 at noon ET (SEC Network) at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field in Columbia, Missouri
Arkansas Offense vs. Missouri Defense
Missouri is just the team that Arkansas wants to face.
In all three of Arkansas’ wins, it has won the turnover battle with its opponent.
So one reason why you should like Arkansas is that Missouri ranks 108th nationally in takeaways per game. The Tigers will lose both the turnover battle and the game.
Quarterback Feleipe Franks is a big reason why the Razorbacks will avoid turning the ball over at least too many times.
For the first time in his four-year playing career, Franks has a touchdown-to-interception ratio that is better than four-to-one. He was thrown 17 touchdowns to four interceptions.
Part of why Franks does not throw many interceptions is that he does not need to do too much with his arm.
He has an absolute stud in Treylon Burks who can catch short passes and make large gains out of them.
Mike Woods also helps him out by getting open downfield. Currently, he averages over 20 yards per reception.
Missouri’s pass defense ranks 59th nationally as measured by opposing passer rating.
It has been very hit-or-miss: the Tiger pass defense excels against abysmal competition while getting gashed by the SEC’s more productive passing games.
Right now, Franks ranks fourth in the SEC in passing yards. So by al accounts, he’s one of the more productive quarterbacks in the SEC.
Can Missouri Stop The Run?
Arkansas’ weapons don’t end with Franks and his targets.
At running back, Trelon Smith has taken over the backfield with his 5.3 YPC. Smith is notoriously shifty.
Missouri has faced a number of decent running backs who haven’t benefitted from the supportive pass attack that will encourage Trelon Smith.
The Tigers have faced capably balanced offenses that feature more powerful running backs.
So Arkansas will present a fairly new challenge for Missouri with a good passing game and a shifty feature running back.
Missouri Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
Arkansas’ defense is opportunistic. It stands a good chance of winning the turnover battle because the Razorbacks rank eighth nationally in interceptions per game.
Tiger quarterback Connor Bazelak has always been known to be somewhat of a gunslinger.
It will only take a mistake from him for the Razorbacks to turn him over.
The help that Tiger backers are counting on him to have is overstated.
While the Razorback run defense is not rated highly, this is primarily due to the fact that opposing offensive lines have bullied the Razorback front seven.
But by comparing offensive line weights and sizes, it’s apparent that the Tigers lack the sort of physicality that the likes of Texas A&M has utilized in order to gash the Razorback front seven.
So the Razorback defense can hold its own this Saturday and generate turnovers, too.
The Verdict
Missouri is favored at the top sports betting sites, although this is the kind of team that Arkansas beats.
For the above reasons, I am placing Missouri on upset alert.
Best Bet: Razorbacks +2.5 at -103 with Heritage
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, December 4, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network) at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky
Spread Is Too High
In favoring Kentucky double digits, oddsmakers seem to be expecting that bettors automatically want to fade South Carolina.
While the Gamecocks are suffering a losing streak, they have suffered from facing competition that contains prolific components like Georgia’s defense last week.
But they have remained competitive against certain teams. For example, they only lost by a touchdown in their second-to-last game, which was against Missouri.
Kentucky does not deserve to be a double-digit favorite.
The Wildcats have played nine games so far, including one against bottom-feeder Vanderbilt.
They would have only covered the spread in two games: against a ridiculous Tennessee team that threw two pick-sixes and against a Mississippi State team whose wholly restructured offense was still dysfunctional.
Key Players
The difference between Mississippi State (at that point in time) and Tennessee is that it can execute in the passing game.
Quarterback Collin Hill is familiar with Mike Bobo’s offense from their days at Colorado State together.
Luke Doty, though, could remain the starter after accomplishing a 166.3 passer rating against Georgia’s defense, although he didn’t accrue the 59 rushing yards that he did against Missouri.
The absence of top wide receiver Shi Smith has amplified the negative perception surrounding the Gamecocks.
But Coach Bobo has affirmed that Smith is good to go. Smith is the team’s leading receiver because he is a playmaker particularly with his unique speed.
Meanwhile, running back Kevin Harris will approach his current 7.1 season YPC average against a Kentucky defense that ranks middle-of-the-road nationally in stopping the run.
Kentucky Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
When I see a team favored by double digits, I want to know that it can move the ball downfield by at least consistently gashing the opposing defense.
But Kentucky’s Terry Wilson is a very ho-hum quarterback. He ranks 92nd nationally in passing yards while averaging a paltry 5.8 YPA.
He is uncomfortable throwing downfield. His effort against Florida shows that he will get intercepted if he presses at all.
Kentucky has scored 10 points or fewer in three of its past four games because it constantly has to grind drives out as moving the ball is difficult for it, which is why UK ranks 108th nationally in yards per play.
The Verdict
Behind a lack of vertical options and instead a bevy of grinding runners, Kentucky resembles Missouri in being extremely unexciting as a double-digit favorite.
South Carolina features more of a playmaker at quarterback and has weapons at the running back and wide receiver positions to keep Kentucky on upset alert.
Best Bet: Gamecocks +11.5 at -108 with Heritage
