NCAAF Week 13 Predictions: 2 SEC Teams on Upset Alert
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, November 28, 2020 at noon ET (ESPN) at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
I get that it may seem unlikely for Kentucky to upset Florida because oddsmakers create the impression that Florida will win by a lot of points by favoring the Gators so heavily.
But you should be open to the possibility of an upset because Kentucky matches up excellently with Florida on both sides of the ball.
Kentucky Offense vs. Florida Defense
Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham’s Gators are notoriously vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks.
Last year, the Gators lucked out because Kentucky quarterback Terry Wilson was injured and so did not face the Gators.
But in Wilson’s second ever career start in 2018, he gashed the Gators for a season-high 105 rushing yards in his team’s upset victory.
This season, Grantham’s Gators remain plagued by opposing scramblers.
In the team’s season opener, for example, Matt Corral of Ole Miss ran for 50 yards.
Wilson will be Florida’s toughest test by far in terms of mobility.
Kentucky’s quarterback is also a modestly efficient quarterback who isn’t likely to throw interceptions. He’ll continue to complete over 60 percent of his passes and keep Florida’s defense honest.
Two running backs in Asim Rose and Kavosiey Smoke will support Wilson. Both are averaging over five YPC.
Florida Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
Especially earlier in the year, Kentucky’s pass defense had been disappointing.
But Kentucky’s secondary was very much a hyped-up unit entering the year and for good reason.
Last year, the Wildcats ranked 12th nationally in opposing passer rating.
Given their returning and new personnel, they were supposed to remain as one of the nation’s top secondaries this year.
Last week, Kentucky was better as it held Alabama’s Heisman-hopeful quarterback to his worst game of the season in terms of passer rating.
Offensively, Florida is extremely reliant on passing the ball. It owns the nation’s 25th-highest passer rating.
So the Gators encounter the Wildcats’ defensive strength, which is embodied in one of the nation’s most proven secondaries.
Best Bet: Wildcats +25 at -109 with GT Bets
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network) at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi
Almost Upset Georgia
As almost four-touchdown underdogs against Georgia, the Bulldogs scored 24 points and were a successful drive away from equaling Georgia’s 31 points.
Quarterback Will Rogers completed 41 of 52 pass attempts for 336 yards and a touchdown.
Rogers was composed in the pocket. He also made plays happen outside of the pocket.
He took what the defense gave him and showcased nice touch downfield.
His offense spread out the Georgia defense.
By spreading out the Bulldogs, Mississippi State’s offense created space for a number of different players. 10 different Bulldogs caught at least one pass from Rogers.
Jaden Walley in particular showed big-play ability with his 51-yard touchdown.
More Of The Same
Expect Rogers to accomplish more of the same against an Ole Miss pass defense that remains one of the worst in the nation.
Currently, the Rebels rank 119th nationally in opposing passer rating and 121st in opposing pass yards per game.
Pretty much all the Bulldogs do in Leach’s air-raid offense is throw the ball. They easily rank number one nationally in pass play percentage.
So they will have abundant opportunity to exploit a porous Rebel secondary.
Ole Miss Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
Mississippi State’s front seven will disrupt the Rebel offense.
The Bulldog linebackers are especially active.
Aaron Brule is a strong source of quarterback pressures. Tyrus Wheat also creates pressure on a high per snap basis.
They can be so effective because defensive linemen like Marquiss Spencer, who has three sacks this season, are able to bother opposing quarterbacks.
Spencer, for example, is also good at reading and reacting to plays and he is explosive in pursuit of the ball-carrier, whether it’s the quarterback or running back.
He contributes to the fact that Mississippi State ranks 16th nationally in opposing YPC.
Brule, Wheat, Spencer, and company are well-tested. They rank so highly despite facing run-first offenses like Kentucky’s plus Bama and Texas A&M.
As a whole, the Bulldog defense therefore matches up well with Ole Miss since the Rebels own the nation’s 25th-highest run play percentage.
Expect Ole Miss to be stopped frequently enough so that the Bulldog offense can maximize its scoring output against the Rebel defense.
Best Bet: Bulldogs +9.5 at -108 with Heritage
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, November 28, 2020 at noon ET (ESPN) at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
I get that it may seem unlikely for Kentucky to upset Florida because oddsmakers create the impression that Florida will win by a lot of points by favoring the Gators so heavily.
But you should be open to the possibility of an upset because Kentucky matches up excellently with Florida on both sides of the ball.
Kentucky Offense vs. Florida Defense
Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham’s Gators are notoriously vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks.
Last year, the Gators lucked out because Kentucky quarterback Terry Wilson was injured and so did not face the Gators.
But in Wilson’s second ever career start in 2018, he gashed the Gators for a season-high 105 rushing yards in his team’s upset victory.
This season, Grantham’s Gators remain plagued by opposing scramblers.
In the team’s season opener, for example, Matt Corral of Ole Miss ran for 50 yards.
Wilson will be Florida’s toughest test by far in terms of mobility.
Kentucky’s quarterback is also a modestly efficient quarterback who isn’t likely to throw interceptions. He’ll continue to complete over 60 percent of his passes and keep Florida’s defense honest.
Two running backs in Asim Rose and Kavosiey Smoke will support Wilson. Both are averaging over five YPC.
Florida Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
Especially earlier in the year, Kentucky’s pass defense had been disappointing.
But Kentucky’s secondary was very much a hyped-up unit entering the year and for good reason.
Last year, the Wildcats ranked 12th nationally in opposing passer rating.
Given their returning and new personnel, they were supposed to remain as one of the nation’s top secondaries this year.
Last week, Kentucky was better as it held Alabama’s Heisman-hopeful quarterback to his worst game of the season in terms of passer rating.
Offensively, Florida is extremely reliant on passing the ball. It owns the nation’s 25th-highest passer rating.
So the Gators encounter the Wildcats’ defensive strength, which is embodied in one of the nation’s most proven secondaries.
Best Bet: Wildcats +25 at -109 with GT Bets
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network) at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi
Almost Upset Georgia
As almost four-touchdown underdogs against Georgia, the Bulldogs scored 24 points and were a successful drive away from equaling Georgia’s 31 points.
Quarterback Will Rogers completed 41 of 52 pass attempts for 336 yards and a touchdown.
Rogers was composed in the pocket. He also made plays happen outside of the pocket.
He took what the defense gave him and showcased nice touch downfield.
His offense spread out the Georgia defense.
By spreading out the Bulldogs, Mississippi State’s offense created space for a number of different players. 10 different Bulldogs caught at least one pass from Rogers.
Jaden Walley in particular showed big-play ability with his 51-yard touchdown.
More Of The Same
Expect Rogers to accomplish more of the same against an Ole Miss pass defense that remains one of the worst in the nation.
Currently, the Rebels rank 119th nationally in opposing passer rating and 121st in opposing pass yards per game.
Pretty much all the Bulldogs do in Leach’s air-raid offense is throw the ball. They easily rank number one nationally in pass play percentage.
So they will have abundant opportunity to exploit a porous Rebel secondary.
Ole Miss Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
Mississippi State’s front seven will disrupt the Rebel offense.
The Bulldog linebackers are especially active.
Aaron Brule is a strong source of quarterback pressures. Tyrus Wheat also creates pressure on a high per snap basis.
They can be so effective because defensive linemen like Marquiss Spencer, who has three sacks this season, are able to bother opposing quarterbacks.
Spencer, for example, is also good at reading and reacting to plays and he is explosive in pursuit of the ball-carrier, whether it’s the quarterback or running back.
He contributes to the fact that Mississippi State ranks 16th nationally in opposing YPC.
Brule, Wheat, Spencer, and company are well-tested. They rank so highly despite facing run-first offenses like Kentucky’s plus Bama and Texas A&M.
As a whole, the Bulldog defense therefore matches up well with Ole Miss since the Rebels own the nation’s 25th-highest run play percentage.
Expect Ole Miss to be stopped frequently enough so that the Bulldog offense can maximize its scoring output against the Rebel defense.
Best Bet: Bulldogs +9.5 at -108 with Heritage
