NCAAF Week 11 Predictions: Two SEC Teams on Upset Alert
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, November 14, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network) at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi
Bounce-Back Opportunity
Offense has been the main problem for South Carolina during its current two-game losing streak. In those two games, the Gamecocks produced a combined total of 27 points.
But if we expand our view beyond the most recent results, we realize that the Gamecocks are truly capable of generating high scoring outputs.
In its last two wins — against Vanderbilt and then against Auburn — South Carolina scored 41 and 30 points, respectively.
Ole Miss provides the Gamecocks with a perfect bounce-back opportunity because its defense will be the worst defense that the Gamecocks face.
Nationally, the Rebels rank 120th in allowing 40.7 points per game. Before last week, this average was worse. But they benefitted from facing bottom-feeder Vanderbilt.
In the SEC, the Rebels allow 54.9 more yards per game than the next-worst opponent.
Shi Smith
Repeatedly, Ole Miss shows that it cannot stop the opponent’s top wide receiver. It cannot do so despite knowing who the other team’s top pass-catcher is.
So when the Rebels faced Auburn, for example, Seth Williams amassed 150 receiving yards and a touchdown on eight receptions even though the Rebels knew that he was their top wide receiver.
The list goes on with Treylon Burks of Arkansas, who caught 11 passes for 137 yards and a touchdown against Ole Miss. Ole Miss lacks the personnel to stop top wide receivers.
South Carolina is heavily dependent on Shi Smith. Against pretty much any other defense, it’s problematic for an offense to rely too heavily on a single player because the defense will key in on that player.
But this reliance is not problematic against Ole Miss. Shi Smith is fast, dynamic, explosive. He’s somebody who can excel in the short-passing game and use his skill set to make big plays when they don’t seem available.
Now, some skeptics express concern that Collin Hill remains the team’s starter. But keeping him as the team’s starter is a great decision this week because South Carolina only needs somebody who knows the offense and who can execute. Hill is that guy because he’s been the starter throughout this season.
Run Game
For all of the criticism that South Carolina’s offense receives, the ground game is third-best in the SEC as measured by rushing yards per game.
In turn, the Rebel run defense is the SEC’s worst. It allows 58 rushing yards more per game than any other team in the conference.
So expect a lot from Kevin Harris, South Carolina’s feature running back who’s accruing 5.4 YPC.
Harris is a strong and physical running back at 225 pounds who maintains his balance through contact. He also flashes deceptively good speed, which is why his longest run this season is 88 yards.
With Harris running strongly and Hill executing especially by making maximal use of Shi Smith, South Carolina will control clock and keep the Rebel offense on the sidelines.
South Carolina Defense
All we need from the Gamecocks are a few stops.
They distinguish themselves from Ole Miss by possessing the top-caliber defensive back that Ole Miss doesn't.
Cornerback Jaycee Horn is a high-level NFL prospect because of his strength in press-man coverage, his physicality, his ball skills, and his ability to tighten passing windows for opposing quarterbacks.
So whereas Seth Williams gashed Ole Miss ‘ secondary, he had half that number of receptions and yards against the Gamecocks.
Having a top cornerback is crucial against a Rebel offense that relies very heavily on a single wide receiver. No Rebel wide receiver has even a third of the receptions that Elijah Moore does.
The Gamecock secondary also benefits from getting starting safety RJ Roderick back from injury.
Best Bet: Gamecocks +13 (-110) at Bovada
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, November 14, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
17 Points
After earning a win against top-five Georgia, Florida is being overrated by oddsmakers.
It’s easy to think: if Florida can beat a top-five Bulldog team by 16, surely it can beat unranked Arkansas by at least a couple points more?
But this is a tremendous let-down spot for the Gators. They have a strong recent history of coming out flat after facing Georgia, which is a strong rival for them that they care very much about beating.
In 2016, Florida beat Georgia and then lost by 21 points to Arkansas.
In 2017, the Gators lost to Georgia and then lost by 29 points to Missouri.
Likewise, they lost by 21 points in 2019 to Missouri after they lost to the Bulldogs the week prior.
Emotionally, it’s tough for Florida to get up for a team like Arkansas or Missouri after facing its biggest rival.
While the Gators were able to buck this trend last year, they got to face perennial bottom-feeder Vanderbilt.
Florida could not be in a flatter spot after actually beating Georgia as opposed to merely playing them.
It is true that Arkansas misses its head coach. But both coordinators are COVID-free and these are the crucial coaches who will ensure that Arkansas executes on offense and defense.
I wrote more about this game where I recommend Arkansas on the first-half spread.
I also like the full-game play on the Razorbacks because that is what the situation calls for.
Best Bet: Razorbacks +17.5 (-110) with Bovada
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, November 14, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network) at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi
Bounce-Back Opportunity
Offense has been the main problem for South Carolina during its current two-game losing streak. In those two games, the Gamecocks produced a combined total of 27 points.
But if we expand our view beyond the most recent results, we realize that the Gamecocks are truly capable of generating high scoring outputs.
In its last two wins — against Vanderbilt and then against Auburn — South Carolina scored 41 and 30 points, respectively.
Ole Miss provides the Gamecocks with a perfect bounce-back opportunity because its defense will be the worst defense that the Gamecocks face.
Nationally, the Rebels rank 120th in allowing 40.7 points per game. Before last week, this average was worse. But they benefitted from facing bottom-feeder Vanderbilt.
In the SEC, the Rebels allow 54.9 more yards per game than the next-worst opponent.
Shi Smith
Repeatedly, Ole Miss shows that it cannot stop the opponent’s top wide receiver. It cannot do so despite knowing who the other team’s top pass-catcher is.
So when the Rebels faced Auburn, for example, Seth Williams amassed 150 receiving yards and a touchdown on eight receptions even though the Rebels knew that he was their top wide receiver.
The list goes on with Treylon Burks of Arkansas, who caught 11 passes for 137 yards and a touchdown against Ole Miss. Ole Miss lacks the personnel to stop top wide receivers.
South Carolina is heavily dependent on Shi Smith. Against pretty much any other defense, it’s problematic for an offense to rely too heavily on a single player because the defense will key in on that player.
But this reliance is not problematic against Ole Miss. Shi Smith is fast, dynamic, explosive. He’s somebody who can excel in the short-passing game and use his skill set to make big plays when they don’t seem available.
Now, some skeptics express concern that Collin Hill remains the team’s starter. But keeping him as the team’s starter is a great decision this week because South Carolina only needs somebody who knows the offense and who can execute. Hill is that guy because he’s been the starter throughout this season.
Run Game
For all of the criticism that South Carolina’s offense receives, the ground game is third-best in the SEC as measured by rushing yards per game.
In turn, the Rebel run defense is the SEC’s worst. It allows 58 rushing yards more per game than any other team in the conference.
So expect a lot from Kevin Harris, South Carolina’s feature running back who’s accruing 5.4 YPC.
Harris is a strong and physical running back at 225 pounds who maintains his balance through contact. He also flashes deceptively good speed, which is why his longest run this season is 88 yards.
With Harris running strongly and Hill executing especially by making maximal use of Shi Smith, South Carolina will control clock and keep the Rebel offense on the sidelines.
South Carolina Defense
All we need from the Gamecocks are a few stops.
They distinguish themselves from Ole Miss by possessing the top-caliber defensive back that Ole Miss doesn't.
Cornerback Jaycee Horn is a high-level NFL prospect because of his strength in press-man coverage, his physicality, his ball skills, and his ability to tighten passing windows for opposing quarterbacks.
So whereas Seth Williams gashed Ole Miss ‘ secondary, he had half that number of receptions and yards against the Gamecocks.
Having a top cornerback is crucial against a Rebel offense that relies very heavily on a single wide receiver. No Rebel wide receiver has even a third of the receptions that Elijah Moore does.
The Gamecock secondary also benefits from getting starting safety RJ Roderick back from injury.
Best Bet: Gamecocks +13 (-110) at Bovada
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, November 14, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
17 Points
After earning a win against top-five Georgia, Florida is being overrated by oddsmakers.
It’s easy to think: if Florida can beat a top-five Bulldog team by 16, surely it can beat unranked Arkansas by at least a couple points more?
But this is a tremendous let-down spot for the Gators. They have a strong recent history of coming out flat after facing Georgia, which is a strong rival for them that they care very much about beating.
In 2016, Florida beat Georgia and then lost by 21 points to Arkansas.
In 2017, the Gators lost to Georgia and then lost by 29 points to Missouri.
Likewise, they lost by 21 points in 2019 to Missouri after they lost to the Bulldogs the week prior.
Emotionally, it’s tough for Florida to get up for a team like Arkansas or Missouri after facing its biggest rival.
While the Gators were able to buck this trend last year, they got to face perennial bottom-feeder Vanderbilt.
Florida could not be in a flatter spot after actually beating Georgia as opposed to merely playing them.
It is true that Arkansas misses its head coach. But both coordinators are COVID-free and these are the crucial coaches who will ensure that Arkansas executes on offense and defense.
I wrote more about this game where I recommend Arkansas on the first-half spread.
I also like the full-game play on the Razorbacks because that is what the situation calls for.
Best Bet: Razorbacks +17.5 (-110) with Bovada
