NCAAF Week 10 Predictions: 2 SEC Teams on Upset Alert
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (SECN) at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas
Arkansas Trend
Oddsmakers have yet to figure out how strongly improved Arkansas is.
After all, this team’s regular season win total was posted at 1.5 games. Arkansas has already won two games. One loss was controversial.
Moreover, the Razorbacks are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season.
Tennessee Trend
After beating South Carolina and Missouri, the Volunteers seemed to be proving that they are the up-and-coming powerhouse team of the SEC East that many pegged them as before the season.
Then they dropped off performance-wise. They are now suffering an ongoing three-game ATS losing streak.
While losing to Alabama and Georgia isn’t some kind of embarrassing shocker, they also lost to Kentucky 34-7. They had been favored to win that game by about a touchdown.
Tennessee Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
Volunteer backers may say: Tennessee likes to run the ball a lot. Plus, the Volunteers are strong and physical in the trenches. So won’t they replicate the Aggies’ success last week against Arkansas?
The difference between Tennessee and Texas A&M is the quarterback position.
When the Aggies won — and yet did not cover — against the Razorbacks, they relied heavily on quarterback Kellen Mond.
Mond was superb, making many wonderfully accurate passes that sustained drives and converted red zone opportunities.
Overall, he was 21-for-26 for 250 yards and three touchdowns. His accuracy helps explain why the Aggies were 7-for-11 on third-down.
Tennessee quarterback Jarrett Guarantano is not remotely comparable to Mond. Thus, the Vols aren’t remotely comparable to the Aggies.
The Vols owe their ongoing three-game SU and ATS losing streak largely to Guarantano.
Besides being less accurate and less efficient than Mond — as his lower completion percentage and lower YPA suggest — he is more mistake-prone.
Whereas Mond has thrown two interceptions in this entire season, Guarantano has thrown three during his team’s current losing streak.
Guarantano is the largest reason why Tennessee ranks last in the SEC with a 26-percent third-down conversion rate.
The key will be for Arkansas to lead early in this game and, in cultivating a lead, to force Tennessee to pass more.
Arkansas will start strong at home as it always does. Against a superior, strongly favored Georgia squad, the Razorbacks led 7-5 at halftime.
Likewise, when hosting the Rebels with their seemingly unstoppable offense, Arkansas led 20-0 after two quarters.
Arkansas Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
Arkansas quarterback Feleipe Franks has enjoyed playing Tennessee.
As a Florida Gator, Franks accumulated a 160.1 passer rating in his games against the Volunteers.
This tendency makes him all the more promising for this game. So far as a Razorback, he is having his best season by just about any statistical measure.
Plus, Tennessee’s pass defense has proven vulnerable overall. It ranks 90th nationally in opposing passer rating.
Franks will give Arkansas’ offense an added dimension and therefore a balance that Guarantano will fail to give his Volunteer offense.
Plus, running back Rakeem Boyd is finally looking like the 2019 version of himself that averaged over six YPC.
In his last game against the Aggies, he ran for 100 yards, averaging 5.6 YPC on 18 attempts.
The Verdict
Arkansas’ balanced offense will take a strong lead at home that puts Tennessee’s already unbalanced offense in the most precarious position.
The Razorbacks continue to be disrespected by College Football Oddsmakers. Let’s prove them wrong, yet again, by investing in the underdogs from Arkansas.
Best Bet: Razorbacks +1.5 at -108 with Heritage
Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida
Addressing Florida’s Losing Streak To Georgia
Some bettors may look to back Georgia because of its ongoing win streak against Florida.
I want to argue that this year will be different.
For starters, the Bulldogs only covered last year’s spread by half a point. Their cover was very much up-in-the-air, as it ultimately was decided by a two-point conversion.
Georgia barely covered despite having veteran Jake Fromm at quarterback, who was selected in the fifth round of the NFL Draft.
D’Andre Swift was helpful. He slipped into the second round of the Draft.
Moreover, top receiver George Pickens will not play against Florida this year. He has been ruled out due to an upper-body injury.
Above all, the Bulldogs suffer a drop-off at the quarterback position.
Whereas Fromm was efficient, accurate, and experienced in the offense, Stetson Bennett is young, is failing to complete 60 percent of his pass attempts, and is mistake-prone.
Currently, Georgia’s quarterback has thrown nearly as many interceptions as he has touchdowns.
Plus, the Bulldog offensive line has regressed after two offensive linemen were selected in the first round in the last NFL Draft.
This year, Florida returns its top pass-throwing and -catching options, which continually make it elite through the air.
Whereas the Gators ranked 15th in pass offense last year, they rank seventh this year in the category.
So besides providing fewer offensive options, the Bulldog defense will have its hands full with another top-caliber passing attack that will look to replace the 40-point performance that Alabama produced against it.
Best Bet: Gators +3 at -113 with Heritage
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (SECN) at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas
Arkansas Trend
Oddsmakers have yet to figure out how strongly improved Arkansas is.
After all, this team’s regular season win total was posted at 1.5 games. Arkansas has already won two games. One loss was controversial.
Moreover, the Razorbacks are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season.
Tennessee Trend
After beating South Carolina and Missouri, the Volunteers seemed to be proving that they are the up-and-coming powerhouse team of the SEC East that many pegged them as before the season.
Then they dropped off performance-wise. They are now suffering an ongoing three-game ATS losing streak.
While losing to Alabama and Georgia isn’t some kind of embarrassing shocker, they also lost to Kentucky 34-7. They had been favored to win that game by about a touchdown.
Tennessee Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
Volunteer backers may say: Tennessee likes to run the ball a lot. Plus, the Volunteers are strong and physical in the trenches. So won’t they replicate the Aggies’ success last week against Arkansas?
The difference between Tennessee and Texas A&M is the quarterback position.
When the Aggies won — and yet did not cover — against the Razorbacks, they relied heavily on quarterback Kellen Mond.
Mond was superb, making many wonderfully accurate passes that sustained drives and converted red zone opportunities.
Overall, he was 21-for-26 for 250 yards and three touchdowns. His accuracy helps explain why the Aggies were 7-for-11 on third-down.
Tennessee quarterback Jarrett Guarantano is not remotely comparable to Mond. Thus, the Vols aren’t remotely comparable to the Aggies.
The Vols owe their ongoing three-game SU and ATS losing streak largely to Guarantano.
Besides being less accurate and less efficient than Mond — as his lower completion percentage and lower YPA suggest — he is more mistake-prone.
Whereas Mond has thrown two interceptions in this entire season, Guarantano has thrown three during his team’s current losing streak.
Guarantano is the largest reason why Tennessee ranks last in the SEC with a 26-percent third-down conversion rate.
The key will be for Arkansas to lead early in this game and, in cultivating a lead, to force Tennessee to pass more.
Arkansas will start strong at home as it always does. Against a superior, strongly favored Georgia squad, the Razorbacks led 7-5 at halftime.
Likewise, when hosting the Rebels with their seemingly unstoppable offense, Arkansas led 20-0 after two quarters.
Arkansas Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
Arkansas quarterback Feleipe Franks has enjoyed playing Tennessee.
As a Florida Gator, Franks accumulated a 160.1 passer rating in his games against the Volunteers.
This tendency makes him all the more promising for this game. So far as a Razorback, he is having his best season by just about any statistical measure.
Plus, Tennessee’s pass defense has proven vulnerable overall. It ranks 90th nationally in opposing passer rating.
Franks will give Arkansas’ offense an added dimension and therefore a balance that Guarantano will fail to give his Volunteer offense.
Plus, running back Rakeem Boyd is finally looking like the 2019 version of himself that averaged over six YPC.
In his last game against the Aggies, he ran for 100 yards, averaging 5.6 YPC on 18 attempts.
The Verdict
Arkansas’ balanced offense will take a strong lead at home that puts Tennessee’s already unbalanced offense in the most precarious position.
The Razorbacks continue to be disrespected by College Football Oddsmakers. Let’s prove them wrong, yet again, by investing in the underdogs from Arkansas.
Best Bet: Razorbacks +1.5 at -108 with Heritage
Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida
Addressing Florida’s Losing Streak To Georgia
Some bettors may look to back Georgia because of its ongoing win streak against Florida.
I want to argue that this year will be different.
For starters, the Bulldogs only covered last year’s spread by half a point. Their cover was very much up-in-the-air, as it ultimately was decided by a two-point conversion.
Georgia barely covered despite having veteran Jake Fromm at quarterback, who was selected in the fifth round of the NFL Draft.
D’Andre Swift was helpful. He slipped into the second round of the Draft.
Moreover, top receiver George Pickens will not play against Florida this year. He has been ruled out due to an upper-body injury.
Above all, the Bulldogs suffer a drop-off at the quarterback position.
Whereas Fromm was efficient, accurate, and experienced in the offense, Stetson Bennett is young, is failing to complete 60 percent of his pass attempts, and is mistake-prone.
Currently, Georgia’s quarterback has thrown nearly as many interceptions as he has touchdowns.
Plus, the Bulldog offensive line has regressed after two offensive linemen were selected in the first round in the last NFL Draft.
This year, Florida returns its top pass-throwing and -catching options, which continually make it elite through the air.
Whereas the Gators ranked 15th in pass offense last year, they rank seventh this year in the category.
So besides providing fewer offensive options, the Bulldog defense will have its hands full with another top-caliber passing attack that will look to replace the 40-point performance that Alabama produced against it.
Best Bet: Gators +3 at -113 with Heritage
