NCAAF Week 9 Predictions: 2 SEC Teams On Upset Alert
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (SECN) at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas
Recent History
According to recent history, these two teams play each other close.
In 2017 and 2018, the Aggies won by a touchdown. In 2019, the Aggies won by four.
The 2018 and 2019 games are most notable because the Aggies were favored by 19.5 points in 2018 and by 23 points in 2019.
Those last two Razorback teams were much worse than the 2020 version.
This year, Arkansas already has two wins, which is as many as it had in all of 2018 and in all of 2019 — in both of those years, the Razorbacks won two games. If a controversial call had gone Arkansas’ way, it would be 3-1.
New head coach Sam Pittman has clearly reached his team and gotten it to buy in. The Razorbacks play with an improved attitude and culture.
So expect this year’s Razorback squad to build off of the successes that previous, inferior versions still managed to produce against the Aggies.
Improved Defense
Most notably, Arkansas has taken strides on defense.
Whereas it ranked 125th last year in allowing 39 points per game, it currently ranks 67th in allowing 25.5 points per game — in a year where defenses are down around the country.
Pass defense is a strength for the Razorbacks as they rank 41st in opposing passer rating.
When Ole Miss played Arkansas, the Rebels were considered unstoppable partly thanks to quarterback Matt Corral, who had achieved a passer rating of over 200 in each of his first three games.
Against Arkansas, Corral produced a season-worst passer rating of 82.6. He was inefficient, generated low yardage, and threw six interceptions.
Texas A&M will have fewer playmakers to offer in its pass attack. One can’t forget that its top wide receiver — Jhamon Ausbon -- opted out before the season and Camron Buckley suffered an injury.
But the Aggie receiver crew is even more beleaguered now without Caleb Chapman, who could make big plays and played a significant role in general in his team’s upset win against Florida.
As of now, Texas A&M’s leading pass-catcher is a running back and it has only one (healthy) wide receiver who has accumulated more than 66 yards.
When you’re talking about playmakers, you have to look at Razorback safety Jalen Catalon, whose playmaking and coverage abilities help explain why the Razorbacks rank second in accruing 2.5 interceptions per game.
Treylon Burks
Offensively, Arkansas has suffered due to the absence of its top playmaker, wide receiver Treylon Burks, who was named to the Paul Hornung Award Watch List for his versatility.
But after amassing 137 yards on 11 receptions against the Rebels, Burks is clearly healthy.
You see in the following video how he already flexes positive chemistry with quarterback Feleipe Franks.
In the video, he gets open for a big play downfield.
You also see him flex his 4.4 40-yard dash speed as he works across the middle for another nice gain.
His speed helps make him dangerous with the ball no matter how the ball enters his hands.
I see Burks as a difference-maker in this game. He provides Arkansas with the weapon at wide receiver that Texas A&M lacks.
The Verdict
Texas A&M will be confined to grinding out drives particularly through its running game especially as the Razorbacks’ improved pass defense limits the Aggies’ thin group of wide receivers.
On offense, look for Burks’ playmaking to make a difference for Arkansas, by giving it something that the Aggies lack in their offense.
For the above reasons, be sure to find some way to invest in the Razorbacks.
Best Bet: Razorbacks +14.5 at -108 with Heritage
Missouri Tigers vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
Bad Spot For Florida
Last year, Florida lucked out because it had a bye week before facing Georgia. In recent years, Florida has been lucky in this regard.
This year, the Gators are not so lucky. They have their biggest rivalry game this season and their biggest game of the season in general on deck.
So we have a classic lookahead scenario in play. Today, the Gators play a double-digit Missouri underdog. But they’ll be tempted to look ahead to their game against Georgia next week.
Recent history repeatedly suggests that Florida will look ahead to its next, much scarier-looking opponent. This recent history is manifest in its games against South Carolina in 2019 and Vanderbilt in 2018.
First Half
I find that these classic betting scenarios are most reliable in the first half of games.
Teams come out unprepared or unfocused — perhaps because they are looking ahead to the next opponent — struggle against their perceived soft opponent, and then regroup at halftime.
In 2019, the Gators were favored at South Carolina but were tied 10-10 at halftime.
In 2018, Florida was more strongly favored at lowly Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt actually led 21-13 at halftime.
So under Dan Mullen, the Gators are 0-2 first-half ATS in their game before Georgia.
The Verdict
I wrote in a different article why I actually like Missouri to cover the full-game spread.
Missouri has the pass attack with downfield-throwing Connor Bazelak, who has a 157.8 passer rating while completing 70 percent of his passes, to exploit Florida’s 125th-ranked pass defense.
Defensively, Missouri’s strength continues to be in defending the pass. Its pass defense ranks over 40 spots better than Florida’s, although the Tigers have faced two top-10 passing offenses (as measured by passing yards per game).
When oddsmakers Florida so heavily, they do not account for Missouri’s advantageous spot and its match-up edge.
So in addition to betting on the Tigers for the full-game, also take them for the first-half.
Best Bet: Tigers First-Half +7.5 at -115 with Heritage
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (SECN) at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas
Recent History
According to recent history, these two teams play each other close.
In 2017 and 2018, the Aggies won by a touchdown. In 2019, the Aggies won by four.
The 2018 and 2019 games are most notable because the Aggies were favored by 19.5 points in 2018 and by 23 points in 2019.
Those last two Razorback teams were much worse than the 2020 version.
This year, Arkansas already has two wins, which is as many as it had in all of 2018 and in all of 2019 — in both of those years, the Razorbacks won two games. If a controversial call had gone Arkansas’ way, it would be 3-1.
New head coach Sam Pittman has clearly reached his team and gotten it to buy in. The Razorbacks play with an improved attitude and culture.
So expect this year’s Razorback squad to build off of the successes that previous, inferior versions still managed to produce against the Aggies.
Improved Defense
Most notably, Arkansas has taken strides on defense.
Whereas it ranked 125th last year in allowing 39 points per game, it currently ranks 67th in allowing 25.5 points per game — in a year where defenses are down around the country.
Pass defense is a strength for the Razorbacks as they rank 41st in opposing passer rating.
When Ole Miss played Arkansas, the Rebels were considered unstoppable partly thanks to quarterback Matt Corral, who had achieved a passer rating of over 200 in each of his first three games.
Against Arkansas, Corral produced a season-worst passer rating of 82.6. He was inefficient, generated low yardage, and threw six interceptions.
Texas A&M will have fewer playmakers to offer in its pass attack. One can’t forget that its top wide receiver — Jhamon Ausbon -- opted out before the season and Camron Buckley suffered an injury.
But the Aggie receiver crew is even more beleaguered now without Caleb Chapman, who could make big plays and played a significant role in general in his team’s upset win against Florida.
As of now, Texas A&M’s leading pass-catcher is a running back and it has only one (healthy) wide receiver who has accumulated more than 66 yards.
When you’re talking about playmakers, you have to look at Razorback safety Jalen Catalon, whose playmaking and coverage abilities help explain why the Razorbacks rank second in accruing 2.5 interceptions per game.
Treylon Burks
Offensively, Arkansas has suffered due to the absence of its top playmaker, wide receiver Treylon Burks, who was named to the Paul Hornung Award Watch List for his versatility.
But after amassing 137 yards on 11 receptions against the Rebels, Burks is clearly healthy.
You see in the following video how he already flexes positive chemistry with quarterback Feleipe Franks.
In the video, he gets open for a big play downfield.
You also see him flex his 4.4 40-yard dash speed as he works across the middle for another nice gain.
His speed helps make him dangerous with the ball no matter how the ball enters his hands.
I see Burks as a difference-maker in this game. He provides Arkansas with the weapon at wide receiver that Texas A&M lacks.
The Verdict
Texas A&M will be confined to grinding out drives particularly through its running game especially as the Razorbacks’ improved pass defense limits the Aggies’ thin group of wide receivers.
On offense, look for Burks’ playmaking to make a difference for Arkansas, by giving it something that the Aggies lack in their offense.
For the above reasons, be sure to find some way to invest in the Razorbacks.
Best Bet: Razorbacks +14.5 at -108 with Heritage
Missouri Tigers vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
Bad Spot For Florida
Last year, Florida lucked out because it had a bye week before facing Georgia. In recent years, Florida has been lucky in this regard.
This year, the Gators are not so lucky. They have their biggest rivalry game this season and their biggest game of the season in general on deck.
So we have a classic lookahead scenario in play. Today, the Gators play a double-digit Missouri underdog. But they’ll be tempted to look ahead to their game against Georgia next week.
Recent history repeatedly suggests that Florida will look ahead to its next, much scarier-looking opponent. This recent history is manifest in its games against South Carolina in 2019 and Vanderbilt in 2018.
First Half
I find that these classic betting scenarios are most reliable in the first half of games.
Teams come out unprepared or unfocused — perhaps because they are looking ahead to the next opponent — struggle against their perceived soft opponent, and then regroup at halftime.
In 2019, the Gators were favored at South Carolina but were tied 10-10 at halftime.
In 2018, Florida was more strongly favored at lowly Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt actually led 21-13 at halftime.
So under Dan Mullen, the Gators are 0-2 first-half ATS in their game before Georgia.
The Verdict
I wrote in a different article why I actually like Missouri to cover the full-game spread.
Missouri has the pass attack with downfield-throwing Connor Bazelak, who has a 157.8 passer rating while completing 70 percent of his passes, to exploit Florida’s 125th-ranked pass defense.
Defensively, Missouri’s strength continues to be in defending the pass. Its pass defense ranks over 40 spots better than Florida’s, although the Tigers have faced two top-10 passing offenses (as measured by passing yards per game).
When oddsmakers Florida so heavily, they do not account for Missouri’s advantageous spot and its match-up edge.
So in addition to betting on the Tigers for the full-game, also take them for the first-half.
Best Bet: Tigers First-Half +7.5 at -115 with Heritage
