SEC Best Future Bets
Alabama
Over/Under 8.5 Regular Season Wins
I’m going to assume wins against Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Kentucky and Arkansas. The top sportsbooks have the win total of these teams posted at over/under five or fewer.
This means that Alabama needs to win at least three games against the following four opponents: Texas A&M, Georgia, LSU, and Auburn. I will focus on the most winnable games first.
Texas A&M (October 3)
Aggie Passing Game
Aggie quarterback Kellen Mond is not likely to show up in a big game against a tough opponent.
Aside from the Auburn game in which he was able to pad his stats late in that loss, he failed to complete 60 percent of his passes against any of the ranked opponents on his team’s schedule.
With Jhamon Ausbon deciding to opt-out, it became the case that Mond will miss all three of his top wide receivers last year.
Then, Camron Buckley suffered a season-ending injury. He was Mond’s fourth-leading wide receiver last year with all of 121 yards.
So who will Mond develop chemistry with — before the second game of the season, no less?
Will Texas A&M's best wide receiver find much success when being shadowed by Patrick Surtain, who was a PFF All-American honorable mention last season?
Surtain is touted for his physical profile, including his length at 6-2, his hands, his range at the point of attack, his anticipation when playing in zone.
LSU (November 14)
Depletion
Get that image of Heisman winner Joe Burrow and offensive guru Joe Brady out of your head.
Myles Brennan will start for LSU after sitting behind Danny Etling in 2017 and then Burrow in 2018 and 2019.
With paltry numbers in few opportunities, including three interceptions to two touchdowns, there’s no reason to expect Brennan to become the kind of passer that was necessary for LSU to have last year in order to defeat Bama.
Brennan will have a lot of new pieces around him as LSU has lost its top running back and its two leading wide receivers after Ja’Marr Chase opted out of the season.
While I actually like LSU’s trio of running backs, four new starting offensive linemen will have to develop themselves.
Defensively, the Tigers have new leadership and a new scheme to learn from new coordinator Bo Pelini.
Personnel-wise, they’ll miss two of their top three tacklers, both of whom were linebackers.
Offseason losses also ensure that the secondary will regress, although not as significantly as the linebacking group.
Bama’s Returning Talent
There is too much returning ability in Alabama to account for.
After getting his feet wet last season, Mac Jones will have leading returning receiver DeVonta Smith to throw to as well as Jaylen Waddle.
Smith is so productive because of his great footwork. You see at 18 seconds in the following video how he uses a hesitation move to freeze Stingley Jr. and then accelerates him to beat him for a big play downfield. He’s able to play off of that initial hesitation move in order to beat Stingley Jr. in different directions throughout the game.
Again, note that Smith is doing what you see in the video against LSU’s top returning corner.
Waddle is also exciting to talk about. He averages 18.6 YPC in his career because he is an electrifying playmaker. His speed and toughness against contact make him lethal after the catch.
On the ground, Bama returns leading rusher Najee Harris who will benefit from having four returning, starting offensive linemen in front of him. Alabama’s offensive line is deep and carries with it a unique level of experience.
Auburn (November 28)
Last season, Alabama suffered a ridiculous number of injuries in its front seven. So if you cling to recent experience, you get an extremely distorted picture of the Crimson Tide’s run defense.
This season, this problem of missing important players will describe Auburn’s offensive line, which loses four starters from last year in addition to its position coach and offensive coordinator.
Running is more crucial to the Tigers since they lack a reliable passing quarterback— Bo Nix only completed 57.6 percent of his passes last season.
But running will be difficult against an Alabama defensive line that, after returning nine players, is stacked with mostly four-star, but also five-star talent at all three positions.
On that defensive line, look out for Christian Barmore, who earned a spot in the Freshman All-SEC squad.
D.J. Dale in the middle has grown more explosive as he’s trimmed weight while he still remains large and powerful. LaBryan Ray at the end does good edge-setting work with his footwork and block-shedding ability.
Behind the defensive line stands a linebacking corps led by veteran, former Butkus Award finalist Dylan Moses.
While Alabama will own the trenches on defense, its returning cast of run-blockers will thrive against a Tiger defensive line that has lost three starters to the NFL.
It is true that the Tigers feature strong replacements, although one of them opted out after an incident at practice. They will take a conspicuous step back without All-American, 2019 SEC Defensive Player of the Year Derrick Brown.
Georgia (October 17)
I saved this game for last because I think the Bulldogs could form Bama’s toughest opponent this season.
In my mind, Alabama still goes „over“ the win total even if it loses to Georgia.
Georgia, offensively, is very much in transition.
The Bulldogs bring in a new offensive coordinator, a transfer quarterback, and a receiving crew that continues to face giant question marks.
It’s so easy to blame Jake Fromm. But the reality is that he lacked wide receivers to throw to, who he could rely on to create sufficient separation.
While George Pickens will likely build off a strong freshman campaign, the Bulldogs miss the most reliable pass-catcher in Lawrence Cager, whose absence was difference-making in a bad way for Georgia.
Going forward, the run game promises to take a step back. Besides losing a game-changing running back in D’Andre Swift, the offensive line lost three starters. Replacing two first-rounders is a tall ask.
You can talk about Georgia’s defense all you want. But any defense will lose effectivity if the offense can’t sustain drives in order to let it rest.
So it’s crucial for your College Football Betting Picks that the Bulldogs do not have the firepower to keep pace.
Best Bet: Alabama Over 8.5 Wins (-145) at BetOnline & Alabama To Win SEC (-130) at BetOnline
Florida Gators
Over/Under 7.5 Wins
It’s safe to assume wins against Ole Miss, South Carolina, Missouri, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt. NCAAF Oddsmakers have these teams pegged at over/under four wins or fewer.
In order to go „over,“ Florida will need at least three wins against: Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
Florida’s Strength
To start off, I want to talk about how loaded Florida’s offense will be.
The Gators will pose the SEC’s second-most threatening pass attack (after Bama) thanks to Kyle Trask, who is the SEC’s leading returning passer.
Trask will get to keep finding tight end Kyle Pitts, who led the team last year in receptions and nearly also in yards.
Pitts is so dangerous because of his hands and athleticism. Coach Mullen easily creates strong match-up opportunities for Pitts also by being creative with how he has Pitts line up.
Kadarius Toney is another versatile weapon who Florida will employ as a runner in wildcat formations and in jet sweeps.
He’s also a big playmaker as a pass-catcher where, as he showed in Florida’s opener last season against Miami, he can always take a simple screen pass for a touchdown.
Last year, Trask achieved what he did while receiving minimal pass protection from a young unit.
This year, Florida’s offensive line will help him more than hurt him as three starters return plus an experienced starter and transfer from Mississippi State in Stewart Reese.
LSU & Texas A&M
Offensively, the Gators boast way more returning firepower than the Aggies, with their ridiculous depletion at wide receiver, and with LSU, with all of their offensive losses.
Texas A&M ranked middle-of-the-road in SEC in terms of pass defense. The Aggies sorely need help from an influx of youth. But, because youth needs time to develop, they must feel unlucky for facing Florida in the third game of the season.
LSU does retain more ability at wide receiver, although Brennan doesn’t have the same proven status as Texas A&M’s quarterback, Kellen Mond.
In its secondary, Florida remains strong with Marco Wilson, who was a member of the All-SEC Freshman squad in 2017. Since this is his second year back after suffering a significant injury in 2018, he promises to bounce back.
Fellow cornerback Kaair Elam could have an even bigger season after leading Gator players in 2019 in Wins Above Average thanks to his strong coverage grade.
The point is that Florida maintains the ability in its secondary to contain LSU’s regressed passing attack as well as that of the Aggies.
Its pass rush — known for creating havoc under pressure guru Todd Grantham — will remains powerful with Zachary Carter, who stood up when Gator injuries required him to and continued to progress as the season wore on.
He accumulated 4.5 sacks and a forced fumble. These are numbers upon which he will easily improve now that he is asked to assume greater responsibility.
His greatest tool is arguably his quickness off the ball. But he also flexes positional versatility and positive block-shedding skills.
Former five-star transfer from Georgia, Brenton Cox, will also help Carter and demand attention from opposing blockers.
Other Games
Even if we assume that Georgia beats Florida, we just need the Gators to split against Tennessee and Kentucky. The Volunteers seem overhyped to me. I dislike them in particular due to their lack of weapons in the passing game.
In Jarrett Guarantano, they do not have a quarterback who will make plays downfield, even though his passing numbers may suggest this ability because they are inflated by giant performances against Missouri and Georgia State.
Best Bet: Gators Over 7.5 Wins (-140) at BetOnline
Alabama
Over/Under 8.5 Regular Season Wins
I’m going to assume wins against Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Kentucky and Arkansas. The top sportsbooks have the win total of these teams posted at over/under five or fewer.
This means that Alabama needs to win at least three games against the following four opponents: Texas A&M, Georgia, LSU, and Auburn. I will focus on the most winnable games first.
Texas A&M (October 3)
Aggie Passing Game
Aggie quarterback Kellen Mond is not likely to show up in a big game against a tough opponent.
Aside from the Auburn game in which he was able to pad his stats late in that loss, he failed to complete 60 percent of his passes against any of the ranked opponents on his team’s schedule.
With Jhamon Ausbon deciding to opt-out, it became the case that Mond will miss all three of his top wide receivers last year.
Then, Camron Buckley suffered a season-ending injury. He was Mond’s fourth-leading wide receiver last year with all of 121 yards.
So who will Mond develop chemistry with — before the second game of the season, no less?
Will Texas A&M's best wide receiver find much success when being shadowed by Patrick Surtain, who was a PFF All-American honorable mention last season?
Surtain is touted for his physical profile, including his length at 6-2, his hands, his range at the point of attack, his anticipation when playing in zone.
LSU (November 14)
Depletion
Get that image of Heisman winner Joe Burrow and offensive guru Joe Brady out of your head.
Myles Brennan will start for LSU after sitting behind Danny Etling in 2017 and then Burrow in 2018 and 2019.
With paltry numbers in few opportunities, including three interceptions to two touchdowns, there’s no reason to expect Brennan to become the kind of passer that was necessary for LSU to have last year in order to defeat Bama.
Brennan will have a lot of new pieces around him as LSU has lost its top running back and its two leading wide receivers after Ja’Marr Chase opted out of the season.
While I actually like LSU’s trio of running backs, four new starting offensive linemen will have to develop themselves.
Defensively, the Tigers have new leadership and a new scheme to learn from new coordinator Bo Pelini.
Personnel-wise, they’ll miss two of their top three tacklers, both of whom were linebackers.
Offseason losses also ensure that the secondary will regress, although not as significantly as the linebacking group.
Bama’s Returning Talent
There is too much returning ability in Alabama to account for.
After getting his feet wet last season, Mac Jones will have leading returning receiver DeVonta Smith to throw to as well as Jaylen Waddle.
Smith is so productive because of his great footwork. You see at 18 seconds in the following video how he uses a hesitation move to freeze Stingley Jr. and then accelerates him to beat him for a big play downfield. He’s able to play off of that initial hesitation move in order to beat Stingley Jr. in different directions throughout the game.
Again, note that Smith is doing what you see in the video against LSU’s top returning corner.
Waddle is also exciting to talk about. He averages 18.6 YPC in his career because he is an electrifying playmaker. His speed and toughness against contact make him lethal after the catch.
On the ground, Bama returns leading rusher Najee Harris who will benefit from having four returning, starting offensive linemen in front of him. Alabama’s offensive line is deep and carries with it a unique level of experience.
Auburn (November 28)
Last season, Alabama suffered a ridiculous number of injuries in its front seven. So if you cling to recent experience, you get an extremely distorted picture of the Crimson Tide’s run defense.
This season, this problem of missing important players will describe Auburn’s offensive line, which loses four starters from last year in addition to its position coach and offensive coordinator.
Running is more crucial to the Tigers since they lack a reliable passing quarterback— Bo Nix only completed 57.6 percent of his passes last season.
But running will be difficult against an Alabama defensive line that, after returning nine players, is stacked with mostly four-star, but also five-star talent at all three positions.
On that defensive line, look out for Christian Barmore, who earned a spot in the Freshman All-SEC squad.
D.J. Dale in the middle has grown more explosive as he’s trimmed weight while he still remains large and powerful. LaBryan Ray at the end does good edge-setting work with his footwork and block-shedding ability.
Behind the defensive line stands a linebacking corps led by veteran, former Butkus Award finalist Dylan Moses.
While Alabama will own the trenches on defense, its returning cast of run-blockers will thrive against a Tiger defensive line that has lost three starters to the NFL.
It is true that the Tigers feature strong replacements, although one of them opted out after an incident at practice. They will take a conspicuous step back without All-American, 2019 SEC Defensive Player of the Year Derrick Brown.
Georgia (October 17)
I saved this game for last because I think the Bulldogs could form Bama’s toughest opponent this season.
In my mind, Alabama still goes „over“ the win total even if it loses to Georgia.
Georgia, offensively, is very much in transition.
The Bulldogs bring in a new offensive coordinator, a transfer quarterback, and a receiving crew that continues to face giant question marks.
It’s so easy to blame Jake Fromm. But the reality is that he lacked wide receivers to throw to, who he could rely on to create sufficient separation.
While George Pickens will likely build off a strong freshman campaign, the Bulldogs miss the most reliable pass-catcher in Lawrence Cager, whose absence was difference-making in a bad way for Georgia.
Going forward, the run game promises to take a step back. Besides losing a game-changing running back in D’Andre Swift, the offensive line lost three starters. Replacing two first-rounders is a tall ask.
You can talk about Georgia’s defense all you want. But any defense will lose effectivity if the offense can’t sustain drives in order to let it rest.
So it’s crucial for your College Football Betting Picks that the Bulldogs do not have the firepower to keep pace.
Best Bet: Alabama Over 8.5 Wins (-145) at BetOnline & Alabama To Win SEC (-130) at BetOnline
Florida Gators
Over/Under 7.5 Wins
It’s safe to assume wins against Ole Miss, South Carolina, Missouri, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt. NCAAF Oddsmakers have these teams pegged at over/under four wins or fewer.
In order to go „over,“ Florida will need at least three wins against: Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
Florida’s Strength
To start off, I want to talk about how loaded Florida’s offense will be.
The Gators will pose the SEC’s second-most threatening pass attack (after Bama) thanks to Kyle Trask, who is the SEC’s leading returning passer.
Trask will get to keep finding tight end Kyle Pitts, who led the team last year in receptions and nearly also in yards.
Pitts is so dangerous because of his hands and athleticism. Coach Mullen easily creates strong match-up opportunities for Pitts also by being creative with how he has Pitts line up.
Kadarius Toney is another versatile weapon who Florida will employ as a runner in wildcat formations and in jet sweeps.
He’s also a big playmaker as a pass-catcher where, as he showed in Florida’s opener last season against Miami, he can always take a simple screen pass for a touchdown.
Last year, Trask achieved what he did while receiving minimal pass protection from a young unit.
This year, Florida’s offensive line will help him more than hurt him as three starters return plus an experienced starter and transfer from Mississippi State in Stewart Reese.
LSU & Texas A&M
Offensively, the Gators boast way more returning firepower than the Aggies, with their ridiculous depletion at wide receiver, and with LSU, with all of their offensive losses.
Texas A&M ranked middle-of-the-road in SEC in terms of pass defense. The Aggies sorely need help from an influx of youth. But, because youth needs time to develop, they must feel unlucky for facing Florida in the third game of the season.
LSU does retain more ability at wide receiver, although Brennan doesn’t have the same proven status as Texas A&M’s quarterback, Kellen Mond.
In its secondary, Florida remains strong with Marco Wilson, who was a member of the All-SEC Freshman squad in 2017. Since this is his second year back after suffering a significant injury in 2018, he promises to bounce back.
Fellow cornerback Kaair Elam could have an even bigger season after leading Gator players in 2019 in Wins Above Average thanks to his strong coverage grade.
The point is that Florida maintains the ability in its secondary to contain LSU’s regressed passing attack as well as that of the Aggies.
Its pass rush — known for creating havoc under pressure guru Todd Grantham — will remains powerful with Zachary Carter, who stood up when Gator injuries required him to and continued to progress as the season wore on.
He accumulated 4.5 sacks and a forced fumble. These are numbers upon which he will easily improve now that he is asked to assume greater responsibility.
His greatest tool is arguably his quickness off the ball. But he also flexes positional versatility and positive block-shedding skills.
Former five-star transfer from Georgia, Brenton Cox, will also help Carter and demand attention from opposing blockers.
Other Games
Even if we assume that Georgia beats Florida, we just need the Gators to split against Tennessee and Kentucky. The Volunteers seem overhyped to me. I dislike them in particular due to their lack of weapons in the passing game.
In Jarrett Guarantano, they do not have a quarterback who will make plays downfield, even though his passing numbers may suggest this ability because they are inflated by giant performances against Missouri and Georgia State.
Best Bet: Gators Over 7.5 Wins (-140) at BetOnline
