SEC Championship Game Discussion
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gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I think that's the way most will see it. I think we are pretty evenly matched in general, but UGA makes far fewer mental mistakes than Alabama. Both teams are incredibly patient, so I think the 1st half under is worth a look. Alabama will need to play a near perfect game to win, which is certainly possible, but last week's game didn't give me a whole lot of confidence. Of course, the last time we played a #1 UGA in the SEC Championship game, we were coming off a similarly inexplicable game in AU with it's own fortunate finish
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Jase McClellan (starting RB for Alabama) left the AU game with what Saban described as an aggravation of a foot injury he's been dealing with all season. McClellan was seen on crutches at the end of the game. Not sure what his availability will be for Saturday, but I think it's safe to assume that he will not play. Not as huge an injury as it would be for some other positions, but notable. I think more important for Alabama is Deontae Lawson at ILB getting healthier. He was noticeably a step slow against AU, and that likely contributed to some of the run defense busts. Also some of the shuffling in the secondary was curious against AU, not sure if they will employ the same lineup against UGA, but could have been more due to lack of passing threat.
I haven't looked yet, but I know there were some injury concerns for UGA as well, as several players sat out against Tech. I know Bowers and McClonkey have had lingering issues. Think there were some defensive guys banged up too?
I haven't looked yet, but I know there were some injury concerns for UGA as well, as several players sat out against Tech. I know Bowers and McClonkey have had lingering issues. Think there were some defensive guys banged up too?
Both teams definitely were in a look ahead. Even in rivalry games.
Both teams can be run on unlike years past which makes it interesting because of what Milroe can do on his feet. He's gotten miles better since week 1 but so has UGA qb #1
Just think UGA rb depth and more play makers will be the difference. Milroe will keep Bama in the game but will also throw an untimely pick.
Like uga ml parlayed with Texas.
Both teams can be run on unlike years past which makes it interesting because of what Milroe can do on his feet. He's gotten miles better since week 1 but so has UGA qb #1
Just think UGA rb depth and more play makers will be the difference. Milroe will keep Bama in the game but will also throw an untimely pick.
Like uga ml parlayed with Texas.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
What's weird is that Alabama had been great against the run all year, until Chattanooga and AU. Maybe they found something on film? Or most likely the injury to Lawson. I think what it comes down to is the Alabama defense against the UGA offense. If they are able to run the ball at least enough to stay in manageable passing down yardage situations, Beck will be able to quick strike us to death. If Alabama can get pressure, it will be something Beck hasn't had to deal with much. Maybe he will respond like Bennett did in the national championship game against us. Or maybe he'll respond like Bennett did in the SEC Champ game. But I think that's our path to success.
On the other side of the ball, we at least have had the opportunity to play a similarly talented defense in aTm. Now clearly UGA is a better team, but athlete to athlete, and even statistically, they are pretty similar. UGA hasn't played anyone yet that can match them athletically. May not matter regardless. Milroe has only thrown one interceptable ball that I can remember since before Tennessee, and that was across his body toward the middle of the field against UK, and it was picked off. Horrible throw. He's the first Alabama QB to not have a turnover at AU since Jake Coker in 2015. So while I understand why people would predict him to have a bad TO, the fact is he just hasn't had one in a while. So I'm cautiously optimistic there.
Intangibles, you can make a case for either side. I think what benefits Alabama, is that the pressure is all on UGA. 3 peat, Kirby is 1-4 against Saban, all that. Alabama is playing with a looseness that I haven't seen in a long time. But the biggest positive for UGA, and maybe the most important thing in determining the game, is that UGA doesn't beat itself with bad penalties, while Alabama has at times seemed determined to make it as tough as possible on itself.
Right now I'm leaning a 28-24 type UGA win. By Friday I'll be picking Alabama to win.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
I haven’t seen even close to the same Bama team of past years. How many times did the Bama QB pass the LOS before he made a pass? Oline has looked questionable vs good pass rushing teams. I just don’t see Bama beating Georgia. Dawgs -5 seems a little light especially with Bama top RB very questionable to play. Need to look deeper into the injuries.
But to be fair, UGA isn't like the past couple years either. Milroe might be the most improved qb in the country imo. I bagged on the sec earlier in year but GA and Bama definitely got better qb play.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
I really like the Georgia QB. I think we’ll see him drafted drafted very high in the draft when he comes out.
Definitely a good qb who will only get better. They might have 2 5 stars go in the portal because of him.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
After playing bama so much this year finally feels like they back to getting the respect they deserve here. This should def be a good one, I woulda loved to get more than a td.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Last week didn’t really do anything to sway me one way or the other. I tend not to read anything into bama/aub, just win that game and don’t worry bout how it looked!! Not sure where I’m leaning here but last week won’t have any effect on how I look at bama.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I'm much more worried about the injuries to Lawson and Key than McClellan. While Jase is the starter, he's not dynamic enough to be a clear upgrade IMO, other than the experience factor. Neither he nor Roydell Williams possess that burst that I think we'll need to run outside against UGA. I think that will fall more on Jam Miller, who is decidedly more talented than the other 2, and has been getting more playing time over the last month. Of course, I'd love to see Justice Haynes step on UGA with a "hobnail boot" in this game, but I can't see him playing much unless it's an emergency.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Team Stats
| Stat | UGA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| First Downs | 19 | 17 |
| Rush-Yds-TDs | 30-107-2 | 43-219-2 |
| Cmp-Att-Yd-TD-INT | 23-33-313-1-1 | 11-20-88-0-1 |
| Total Yards | 420 | 307 |
| Fumbles-Lost | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Penalties-Yards | 3-30 | 1-5 |
Team Stats
| Stat | BAMA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| First Downs | 21 | 18 |
| Rush-Yds-TDs | 44-192-1 | 42-244-2 |
| Cmp-Att-Yd-TD-INT | 16-24-259-2-0 | 6-17-93-1-2 |
| Total Yards | 451 | 337 |
| Fumbles-Lost | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 3 |
| Penalties-Yards | 8-72 | 5-28 |
| Like a lot of Alabama fans, I was more than a little worried about how the AU game played out while looking forward to UGA. However, someone brought up the similarities between both our game and UGA's at AU. I get the argument that UGA hadn't found it's stride or whatever, but I also think it's pertinent that Alabama played it's worst game since USF, which happens, so I think it's still useful. The things that stick out to me are the turnovers and penalties. UGA was pretty clean on penalties, but turned it over twice. Alabama didn't turn it over, but essentially killed drives and took points off the board with penalties. Also, notice that Alabama had exactly 31 yards more of offense than UGA did lol |
|---|
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
The rushing yards Bama gave up vs Auburn is staggering.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
It was certainly disappointing given that AU was very little threat to throw. Credit their staff for coming up with the plan. I didn't watch the UGA/AU game closely so I can't comment on it too much for comparison, but Alabama made a personnel decision in the secondary that moved true freshman Caleb Downs to our Star position (basically slot corner) perhaps in order to have a more physical tackler close to the line of scrimmage, and I think Freeze got the best of him a few times. Having Lawson and Key moving at 75% speed also contributed to the busts. Downs will be fine. He's a future all-American and 1st round draft pick. I don't know if he'll be back at Star to help with Bowers, but I hope not because Malachi Moore looked a little off at deep safety. He's a much better Star and has played there most of the season. I don't know how much of it was scheme related or injury related elsewhere, but a close to 100% Lawson would be monumental for the Alabama defense. Regardless, it's going to come down to Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell coming off the edge and pressuring Beck
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Not sure Ir a great idea to take anything from
The auburn game for lots of reasons. The way that rivalry has went over the years I say bama just needs to win that game and escape! How it looks doesn’t mean anything in relation to this upcoming week!! Not to mention who knows how the hell to defend auburn as Freese brought in a qb known for throwing a excellent deep ball and tuned thorne into a runner!!! That enough to confuse anyone!! Uga is gonna run a much more traditional offense.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Yeah I try not to put too much emphasis on one game for any team. But the injury concerns are valid since it was just last week. If Alabama plays their best game of the year, and plays to their potential, it won’t matter what UGA does. Alabama has the higher ceiling. But UGA has the much higher floor.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I think ya’ll win also, I was little surprised to hear Uga hadn’t beaten bama in the sec champ game, just the playoffs I guess, lol. I love Milroe passing prop ov 217.5 yards and ov 1.5 td passes, I think Uga can take away his legs but I also think he can beat them with some deep shots as I think he one the best deep ball throwers we have in college right now. I expect this to be somewhat high scoring. Might come down to who has the ball last. All I know is you give me 5-6 points with bama im taking them and then plus money on ml!! I’ve never lost any sleep over betting your boys and they been very good to me this year as it seems like the more everyone sold their bama stock the more I bought! Maybe Uga is great, god knows they been on a great run but they seriously havnt had to play anyone this year so think 2marro a way bigger step up in class for them than it is for bama!
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Saban is 16-1 in Atlanta. Only loss was in 2008 SECCG to Tebow and Urban. Haven't lost there since. UGA is a better team than Alabama this season. But we're better in the right spots. If Milroe plays a good to great game, we win. I think he does
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
From my Georgia people, sounds like Bowers and Tate Rutledge will for sure play. McConkey and Ra Ra are a little more uncertain. McConkey is dealing with alot of pain. I would expect him to not be full strength fwiw.
I'm playing Bama money line for now. Then can adjust live if I need to. I'm of the opinion that if Bama covers, then they win outright. If it's a close game, I still trust Saban more than Kirby.
I'm playing Bama money line for now. Then can adjust live if I need to. I'm of the opinion that if Bama covers, then they win outright. If it's a close game, I still trust Saban more than Kirby.
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
It's amazing to me Kirby has won more nattys than wins over Saban. 2-1.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
As I said, don’t think I’ve ever went to sleep angry at myself for betting bama!! I might have lost a few but that doesn’t sting nearly as bad as getting cute and playing against them only to lose!! Im actually perfect with them this year, played texas and then after that following week where they did the qb carousel and looked awful vs whatever scrub team that was I started buying bama stock by the truckload! Usually my biggest issue betting bama is I feel so square, this was a super rare year where I never worried bout the whole world being on them with me!! It was quite nice!! Lol. No clue who betting what in this game but I gotta assume Uga is taking plenty of money, figure there no way it much worse than a 50-50 split which A-ok with me!
I do think this Beck kid playing qb for dogs has turned out to be a really damn good qb. That said where the hell has he been tested vs a nfl type defense? I can’t find the game I can point to and say “oh, that makes me think Beck can deal w bama”!! I know he has a cannon and I know he gets rid the ball quick but I also know he hasn’t had to wash his jersey all year!! I think that changes today! Maybe he can rise to the occasion but the only thing I feel confident saying is he won’t be completing 70+% his passes, he won’t be averaging over 9 yards a throw, and he wont be standing upright at the end of every play! Those have pretty much been staples in every Uga game this year!! Maybe he can handle all of that and still play great, he just hasn’t had a chance to prove it and not sure the SEC championship game is the time to be finding these things out!! If he can still play the kinda game he been playing all year vs this bama d I’ll happily tip my cap! I just find it hard to believe.
With all that going on for Beck the one thing we can without a doubt say bout Milroe, he has faced all that adversity all throughout this season and passed every test!! Sure the Uga d is most likely the best he has seen but I think it way different when you have already been thru it all and came out the other side!! Don’t think Beck has had to throw a 30 yard dime to the corner the endzone to win a game at any point in the season!!! We know the moment won’t be to big for Milroe!!! To be perfectly honest while lots of folks wanna point to last week auburn game let’s do this. I’m very confident in saying if Mizzou came with a more aggressive game plan where they played to win opposed to played for keep it close I think mizzou could have beaten Uga, dogs were not the better team imo. Mizzou just played scared as coach Drinkowitz often does. We won’t see that from bama today, I have no doubt they will attack Uga secondary with Milroe pushing the ball down the field. We see if they can hold up?!?! I think there some big plays to be had!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I thought that was interesting too. Just goes to show ya, beating everyone else isn’t as tough as beating bama!!!
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
I thought Beck grew up in the Auburn game. Tied with 4 mins? left and he lead them down the field for the GW td. He's been lights out since. He sure seems to fit the part. Looks like a more NFL type qb than Stetson Rehab.
Bama is a different beast. I'm sure Saban will have some new wrinkles Beck hasn't seen on film. Both these defenses aren't vintage Bama and UGA d's. Georgia is about 50 yards a game worse on the ground than last year. It screams OVER but I just can't pull the trigger on it.
Bama is a different beast. I'm sure Saban will have some new wrinkles Beck hasn't seen on film. Both these defenses aren't vintage Bama and UGA d's. Georgia is about 50 yards a game worse on the ground than last year. It screams OVER but I just can't pull the trigger on it.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I agree Beck could very well be a way better nfl prospect than Bennett ever was, he absolutely looks the part. Really just comes down to the fact I think this be far and away the toughest defense he has seen, not only from a talent perspective but scheme. After all it still his 1st season as a starter and like I mentioned I’m not sure he has needed his jersey washed all season! That should change today! I def agree w over, won’t be a huge play for me but I’ll def have a little something on it as I fully expect we see upwards of 60 passes in this game and more than a few big plays. Total will prob come down to whether or not these qbs can put up 7s in the red zone since i wouidnt expect many rushing tds!
aplous
Donkey Hater
I agree but hoping to hit it live at a god number if it starts a bit slow.
I’ve come around on Milroe, I think he makes some big plays today.
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
anyone know why this total got hit down a bit today?
Nope.
Curious why both TTs are juiced under as well.
Pretty big on the over fwiw at 53.5
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
i was leaning that way for sure too
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
Verne sighting, what a great intro! im gonna miss this shit
I understand it now.
Running clock for the most part and neither offense has been consistent.
Ugh. I really need a score to end this half and an early one in 3rd to have options.
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