SEC Championship Game (and other news and notes) discussion
- Thread starter gps_3
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Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
A few thoughts:
The hubris Kifiin has shown in his expectation to have his cake and eat it too and coach Ole Miss through the playoffs is remarkable. Not surprising but still remarkable. He's not just leaving, he's leaving for Ole Miss's hated rival, and they are supposed to just trust that he of all people will have Ole Miss's best interests at heart during this next month when it's probably the most important 30 days in setting up his team for success next year? This is not complicated.
I hate to be negative but this Ryan Silverfield hire at Arkansas is a total disaster. The guy has been the coach at the easiest place to win in the American, with exponentially more resources and he's never even made the title game. He's been beaten out by places like Army, UTSA, Tulane, North Texas. He probably would have started next year on the hot seat at Memphis. His stated mentor and guiding light is Mike Norvell. If you're an Arkansas fan, you can't even start the clock on being good again until after he's gone. At least that's how I see it.
Can't say I'm optimistic about Golesh either. USF is right behind Memphis in the "should be good" pecking order in the American and he hasn't done shit either. He's a salty guy who likes to pop off, which is refreshing, but his primary coaching influence is Tim Beckman. That should be a disqualifier. He hooked on with matt Campbell when Campbell got the Iowa State job which might have laundered some of the Beckman stink off him, but he hasn't really accomplished a thing.
Jason Eck would have been miles better than both of those if he was interested. Kentucky probably made the best hire of all of them if Will Stien is indeed the pick for them.
The hubris Kifiin has shown in his expectation to have his cake and eat it too and coach Ole Miss through the playoffs is remarkable. Not surprising but still remarkable. He's not just leaving, he's leaving for Ole Miss's hated rival, and they are supposed to just trust that he of all people will have Ole Miss's best interests at heart during this next month when it's probably the most important 30 days in setting up his team for success next year? This is not complicated.
I hate to be negative but this Ryan Silverfield hire at Arkansas is a total disaster. The guy has been the coach at the easiest place to win in the American, with exponentially more resources and he's never even made the title game. He's been beaten out by places like Army, UTSA, Tulane, North Texas. He probably would have started next year on the hot seat at Memphis. His stated mentor and guiding light is Mike Norvell. If you're an Arkansas fan, you can't even start the clock on being good again until after he's gone. At least that's how I see it.
Can't say I'm optimistic about Golesh either. USF is right behind Memphis in the "should be good" pecking order in the American and he hasn't done shit either. He's a salty guy who likes to pop off, which is refreshing, but his primary coaching influence is Tim Beckman. That should be a disqualifier. He hooked on with matt Campbell when Campbell got the Iowa State job which might have laundered some of the Beckman stink off him, but he hasn't really accomplished a thing.
Jason Eck would have been miles better than both of those if he was interested. Kentucky probably made the best hire of all of them if Will Stien is indeed the pick for them.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
I'm kind of undecided about that one. Probably a high floor because he's a solid guy. He was awesome at Troy but his Tulane tenure was kind of a mixed bag IMO. Quite a few questionable moments. Granted, I might be a bit unfair because I had really high expectations from his time at Troy, but I was expecting more of him at Tulane.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Golesh is an interesting one to me. On the surface it sounds good, but like you mentioned, USF has underachieved relative to expectations given their situation. Add to that the difficulty in recruiting NFL minded offensive players to that system, and you may just get a middle of the road SEC team, which is not what they want at AU.
Inspekdah
Quiet, Piggy!
Yeah, it's hard to predict who will succeed with the massive step up in competition. If FLA isn't continuously getting top 5 recruiting classes then it won't matter how solid he is. I read they have a new GM? That is now more important than the actual coaching. It's a big reason why everyone has caught up to Bama.
Inspekdah
Quiet, Piggy!
Yeah spread read option draws over and over vs. Rice and UTSA that go to the house doesn't typically work well in the SEC.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
It was plenty successful when Golesh was at Tennessee in 2022, but I think defenses kind of caught on. Also, there will be a tremendous amount of negative recruiting focused around the lack of NFL success of QBs from that system dating back to Art Briles and Baylor. WR have had some better success, but Golesh hasn't adjusted like Heupel has, and their route tree is very minimal and can keep most receivers in that system from being drafted high, other than absolute freaks. I don't know what's going to happen at AU once the portal is open, but you can bet the phone of a bunch of players' agents have been ringing
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
There is a part of the Tulane base that isn’t all in on Sumrall. At all.
Bama is slated to make the playoffs now. If Bama were to lose to Georgia and then not make the playoffs, then I say abolish conference championship games. Just decline to participate.
bones
Sic Semper Tyrannis!
Sadly true.
UTSUX
Old-timer
Two Utes
Manual Toothbrushes FTW
What about BYU? If they lose the ccg their only two loses are to highly ranked TTU.
Not comparable to Bama. Bama beat Georgia. BYU beat…Utah. BYU needs to win its conference championship to get that impressive win
wiseplayer
Let Me Be Frank With You
Skattebo U
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
First availability reports came out last night. A little surprised to see Jam Miller and Josh Cuevas as "Questionable." I'm not holding out hope they'll play, but if they are anywhere close to 100%, that's big for Alabama. The biggest surprise was LT Overton being listed as "Out." No idea what happened, must have been a practice injury or something else. On the UGA side, Bobo (starting C) is listed as out. Pretty big loss, although it was expected. As I mentioned earlier, both teams are beat up and having a first round bye as a reward for winning this game should motivate both teams. I'm not certain Alabama would be top 4 with a win, but I think it's likely. UGA is obviously a top 4 team with a win
bones
Sic Semper Tyrannis!
Greg McElroy talked as if he expected Miller NOT to play also
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I would be surprised if either he or Cuevas played, but them being questionable indicates some optimism, though it's quite possible they are downgraded in the subsequent availability reports. DeBoer is speaking to the media today, so there should be some clarity later on
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I mean, it's UGA. Of course Alabama is going to win
CPA-hole
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Pretty good job of getting this team to the SEC Champ. 3 or 4 games they easily could've and frankly, should've lost. Gunner played his worst game in his career vs that vaunted Georgia Tech defense. I just can't get myself to take this Georgia team to beat Bama.
Frank Costanza
2024 and 2025 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Seems to be a pattern in the SEC....Texas has its Georgia, OU has its Texas and Georgia has its Bama.
Be nice for Bama if Ryan Williams reappears. Milk carton material right now.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
It's been concerning. There are rumors that he has a lot of stuff off the field with family wanting his money and him not being able to tell them no. Not sure I believe it, but it's out there. I've also seen comparisons to what JSN did with the Seahawks with Grubb last year putting him at slot and Ryan playing slot mostly this season. It could just be a sophomore slump. It's clear that Ty doesn't trust him as much as the other guys. Would love for him to get back to what he was the first half of last season
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
As much as I'd love to have Miller back, getting Cuevas back would be much bigger IMO
Frank Costanza
2024 and 2025 CTG Supporting Donation Member
I didn't realize Bobo was siting for Georgia. Keenan should be big inside tomorrow.
Smart -
- 24-4 vs. Top 10 opponents other than Bama
- 0-6 vs Top 10 Bama (1-7 against it overall)
DeBoer is 7-1 in games against Top 10 opponents.
Smart -
- 24-4 vs. Top 10 opponents other than Bama
- 0-6 vs Top 10 Bama (1-7 against it overall)
DeBoer is 7-1 in games against Top 10 opponents.
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bones
Sic Semper Tyrannis!
I have not put a dime on it and as of now probably will not. Instinct says GA but for the reason you expressed above I am reluctant.
One thing about McElroy when he breaks the games down and selects I really do not think he is biased
bones
Sic Semper Tyrannis!
Others who have analyzed the game agree with you
bones
Sic Semper Tyrannis!
The one bet I may make is Isaiah Horton anytime TD
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
any updates on Jam status?
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Highly unlikely to play tomorrow, but should be good for any future games
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Horton has picked up the slack for him.
Bubbalicious
Pretty much a regular
Twink
Hope you are well. Boy is SR this year at Tulane! Hard be believe we were banging shots that long ago at the Cotton Bowl ( what a fucking game that was for the Green Wave, new right there Caleb sucks)
Despite loyalty to the WAVE i have been salivating over this game for a week. Needed Tulane to pound last weekend. Thought line would be higher and now moving down. Went to the FAU game few weeks back for parents weekend and Wave was average at best. Seems NT offensive machine. See Tulane stall.
Heard some rain but not going to be heavy. What you thinking ? Happy Holidays buddy
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Horton is great in the red area for sure. Big guy, great hands, runs good routes. He’s not a great blocker and isn’t a big play threat like RW should be. It’s going to take a collective effort to win tomorrow. The defense should be able to put the offense in enough favorable positions, they just have to go out and execute
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
We've seen plenty of reasons to take UGA in this game, as not many are giving Alabama much of a chance. I'll offer some counterpoints. While I don't expect it to play out exactly like the first game, there is reason for optimism on both sides of the ball for improvement.
Jam Miller is likely out, which honestly, he's not been very good when not fully healthy. Daniel Hill has been better in the second half of the season, and is a bigger, move the chains type of back. With Kevin Riley out, the back up RB is likely AK Dear, how has shown flashes this season why he was a 5 star coming out of high school last year. Despite the run challenges for most of the year, Alabama did start to find success against OU and AU, two really good run defenses. Part of that is that after shuffling the OL all season, they've settled on a starting 5 that have performed better when run blocking. The injury to Brailsford is a huge cause for concern, as he was clearly hobbled against AU and it showed. UGA's run defense is good too, but they don't pair it with a pass rush like those other two do. There is growing optimism that Josh Cuevas will play today, which can't be understated how important that could be. He has become Ty Simpson's security blanket and a first down machine, not to mention another great red zone threat with Zay Horton. Ty is pretty beat up too, so having that short yardage weapon could prove invaluable when trying to get the ball out fast. I don't know what's going on with Ryan Williams, so I can't have any faith that he will be much of an impact this game, but if he is somehow able to step up today, that gives Alabama a lot of weapons to attack the UGA defense.
We've seen plenty of reasons to take UGA in this game, as not many are giving Alabama much of a chance. I'll offer some counterpoints. While I don't expect it to play out exactly like the first game, there is reason for optimism on both sides of the ball for improvement. Alabama was missing their best run defender in the first game, Tim Keenan, and now he will be going up against a backup C on the OGA OL. Alabama hasn't allowed over 165 yards running since the UGA game, and has only allowed over 200 yards passing twice. They've quietly turned into an elite defense this season and the strongest unit on the team. The defense is also pretty healthy, and a good bit healthier than in the first meeting. They've been great at forcing turnovers, and we've seen Stockton put the ball in harm's way more than once this season. Alabama has two pass rushers that can be elite in Pierre and early season starter Russaw (injured in the first UGA game). Losing LT Overton is no doubt a big blow, as he's been one of our most consistent players, but they've rotated a ton on the line all season, so at least the guys who step in bigger roles today will have experience.
The biggest advantage for UGA is definitely special teams. Talty bounced back in a huge way from his ugly scene against OU and a miss against E Illinois which resulted in boos from the home crowd, but he nailed two huge FGs in AU, a notoriously rough place for kickers wearing the Alabama uniform. Our punter is adequate and has been pretty consistent all year. I would be a little worried about the coverage units, especially on punts. So while I do agree that the advantage is clearly on UGA's side here, I don't think it's as clear as the numbers indicate
Alabama has a slight advantage when it comes to penalties, and a bit more of an advantage when it comes to turnovers. It's hard not to give the coaching advantage to Kirby, but in big games, it's hard to beat what DeBoer has done over his career. It's allegedly hard to beat a team twice in one season, but DeBoer managed it 3 years ago when he beat Oregon for a second time and helped blow up the CFP committee's plans. I think my numbers are right, there have been 8 rematches in the SEC Championship game over the 30+ years, and the team that won the first time is 6-2 SU. I don't think there's a clear motivation edge, as both teams have plenty of reason to be up for this game. The crowd will certainly favor UGA, but I doubt it's all that noticeable and it won't be close to what it was in Athens or what Alabama faced last week.
This is the sixth straight time these teams have faced off where nobody gives Alabama much of a chance. The Tide is 4-1 so far. I expect it to be another close game and it won't surprise me if either team wins. I'm probably being a homer, but I think Alabama somehow, someway gets it done. Alabama has shown over and over this season that when it gets in those do or die situations, they make the plays. And especially in this matchup, they've been the one over the last 17 years that consistently does it. They are very confident and I think it pulls them through, something like 24-20
Jam Miller is likely out, which honestly, he's not been very good when not fully healthy. Daniel Hill has been better in the second half of the season, and is a bigger, move the chains type of back. With Kevin Riley out, the back up RB is likely AK Dear, how has shown flashes this season why he was a 5 star coming out of high school last year. Despite the run challenges for most of the year, Alabama did start to find success against OU and AU, two really good run defenses. Part of that is that after shuffling the OL all season, they've settled on a starting 5 that have performed better when run blocking. The injury to Brailsford is a huge cause for concern, as he was clearly hobbled against AU and it showed. UGA's run defense is good too, but they don't pair it with a pass rush like those other two do. There is growing optimism that Josh Cuevas will play today, which can't be understated how important that could be. He has become Ty Simpson's security blanket and a first down machine, not to mention another great red zone threat with Zay Horton. Ty is pretty beat up too, so having that short yardage weapon could prove invaluable when trying to get the ball out fast. I don't know what's going on with Ryan Williams, so I can't have any faith that he will be much of an impact this game, but if he is somehow able to step up today, that gives Alabama a lot of weapons to attack the UGA defense.
We've seen plenty of reasons to take UGA in this game, as not many are giving Alabama much of a chance. I'll offer some counterpoints. While I don't expect it to play out exactly like the first game, there is reason for optimism on both sides of the ball for improvement. Alabama was missing their best run defender in the first game, Tim Keenan, and now he will be going up against a backup C on the OGA OL. Alabama hasn't allowed over 165 yards running since the UGA game, and has only allowed over 200 yards passing twice. They've quietly turned into an elite defense this season and the strongest unit on the team. The defense is also pretty healthy, and a good bit healthier than in the first meeting. They've been great at forcing turnovers, and we've seen Stockton put the ball in harm's way more than once this season. Alabama has two pass rushers that can be elite in Pierre and early season starter Russaw (injured in the first UGA game). Losing LT Overton is no doubt a big blow, as he's been one of our most consistent players, but they've rotated a ton on the line all season, so at least the guys who step in bigger roles today will have experience.
The biggest advantage for UGA is definitely special teams. Talty bounced back in a huge way from his ugly scene against OU and a miss against E Illinois which resulted in boos from the home crowd, but he nailed two huge FGs in AU, a notoriously rough place for kickers wearing the Alabama uniform. Our punter is adequate and has been pretty consistent all year. I would be a little worried about the coverage units, especially on punts. So while I do agree that the advantage is clearly on UGA's side here, I don't think it's as clear as the numbers indicate
Alabama has a slight advantage when it comes to penalties, and a bit more of an advantage when it comes to turnovers. It's hard not to give the coaching advantage to Kirby, but in big games, it's hard to beat what DeBoer has done over his career. It's allegedly hard to beat a team twice in one season, but DeBoer managed it 3 years ago when he beat Oregon for a second time and helped blow up the CFP committee's plans. I think my numbers are right, there have been 8 rematches in the SEC Championship game over the 30+ years, and the team that won the first time is 6-2 SU. I don't think there's a clear motivation edge, as both teams have plenty of reason to be up for this game. The crowd will certainly favor UGA, but I doubt it's all that noticeable and it won't be close to what it was in Athens or what Alabama faced last week.
This is the sixth straight time these teams have faced off where nobody gives Alabama much of a chance. The Tide is 4-1 so far. I expect it to be another close game and it won't surprise me if either team wins. I'm probably being a homer, but I think Alabama somehow, someway gets it done. Alabama has shown over and over this season that when it gets in those do or die situations, they make the plays. And especially in this matchup, they've been the one over the last 17 years that consistently does it. They are very confident and I think it pulls them through, something like 24-20
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
I took the plus money on bama early in week, I honestly don’t need much a reason to do that! I don’t think you being a homer it just good business in this matchup. I played Uga the 1st time cause all the reasons you would think they shoulda won at home and look how that didn’t work out
think I might play some Ty over 250s passing that seems like damn near a given.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Bubba!!!! Tequila shots again soon I hope!
I couldn’t get a read on the game and even 5 turnovers and still wasn’t right.
Awesome your son will be a Tulane grad!! What a ride for the best Tulane football years wow!!!
If it’s in Oxford, I think I’m going.
Autzen might be tough…..I don’t know. Still thinking.
Inspekdah
Quiet, Piggy!
I took the plus money on bama early in week, I honestly don’t need much a reason to do that! I don’t think you being a homer it just good business in this matchup. I played Uga the 1st time cause all the reasons you would think they shoulda won at home and look how that didn’t work out
Yep