SEC Bowls Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making

SEC College Football Schedule​



Saturday, December 17, 2022

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MATCHUPTIMETVTICKETSLOCATION / WEATHER
Florida
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl		 @ 14Oregon State1:30 PM
ESPN		Tickets as low as $60Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

Friday, December 23, 2022

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MATCHUPTIMETVTICKETSLOCATION / WEATHER
Wake Forest
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl		 @ Missouri5:30 PM
ESPN		Tickets as low as $36Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

Wednesday, December 28, 2022

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MATCHUPTIMETVTICKETSLOCATION / WEATHER
Kansas
AutoZone Liberty Bowl		 @ Arkansas4:30 PM
ESPN		Tickets as low as $89Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
Texas Tech
TaxAct Texas Bowl		 @ Ole Miss8:00 PM
ESPN		Tickets as low as $77NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Friday, December 30, 2022

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MATCHUPTIMETVTICKETSLOCATION / WEATHER
21Notre Dame
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl		 @ 19South Carolina2:30 PM
ESPN		Tickets as low as $63TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
6Tennessee
Capital One Orange Bowl		 @ 7Clemson7:00 PM
ESPN		Tickets as low as $132Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Saturday, December 31, 2022

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MATCHUPTIMETVTICKETSLOCATION / WEATHER
5Alabama
Allstate Sugar Bowl		 @ 9Kansas State11:00 AM
ESPN		Tickets as low as $74Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Iowa
TransPerfect Music City Bowl		 @ Kentucky11:00 AM
ABC		Tickets as low as $19Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
4Ohio State
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl		 @ 1Georgia7:00 PM
ESPN		Tickets as low as $370Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Monday, January 2, 2023

�
MATCHUPTIMETVTICKETSLOCATION / WEATHER
22Mississippi State
ReliaQuest Bowl		 @ Illinois11:00 AM
ESPN2		Tickets as low as $46Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
17LSU
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl		 @ Purdue12:00 PM
ABC		Tickets as low as $78Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
 
Not much to report as of yet. Alabama has had 1 starter and 2 contributors enter the portal so far. Not sure if they're still with the team or not though I think it's best to assume they won't be. I'd imagine we'll hear about some opt outs for the draft eligible players in the near future. I mentioned it in another thread, but I don't know how anyone could bet a game until close to kickoff in this new day era.

One bet that has caught my eye is the over in the Orange Bowl. With Klubnik at QB, I think Clemson will definitely be able to score on Tenn's defense. Also, wouldn't surprise me if Clemson had some defensive opt-outs making it easier sledding for the Tenn offense with Milton at QB. Not ready to bet it, but will keep a close eye on it
 
Let's try to hive mind motivation for SEC teams. I'm going to group teams in to 4 tiers: motivated, content, disappointed, checked out. This is subject to change based on opt outs and portal moves , but here's what I've got:

Motivated:
UGA
South Carolina?
Mizzou

Content:
Miss. State
Kentucky
Tennessee - given their opponent, I think they will be interested.

Disappointed:
LSU?
Ole Miss
Bama

Checked out:
Florida
Arkansas?
 
I can’t see LSU being disappointed in year 1.

Covering the line may be entirely different story…any inkling there on what it’s gonna be?
 
Grovehard said:
Let's try to hive mind motivation for SEC teams. I'm going to group teams in to 4 tiers: motivated, content, disappointed, checked out. This is subject to change based on opt outs and portal moves , but here's what I've got:

Motivated:
UGA
South Carolina?
Mizzou

Content:
Miss. State
Kentucky
Tennessee - given their opponent, I think they will be interested.

Disappointed:
LSU?
Ole Miss
Bama

Checked out:
Florida
Arkansas?
Click to expand...
I can't say for sure, but I have to think Tennessee is motivated. I think Alabama is for sure disappointed, but if we end up having enough opt-outs, the guys trying to get a head start on next year will be plenty motivated. May not mean much, but it wouldn't surprise me if they were into this one
 
KJ Jefferson announced he'll be back for Arkansas, correct? That should motivate them to some degree if he's playing...
 
Saban just said that they don't expect any opt outs for the Sugar Bowl. Game is off the books at my shop right now
 
I think what happened to LSU in last year's bowl is enough to make sure they show up and care, but now the line is 2 TDs and Purdue's best players on O aren't playing so of course they will win.

I agree with what everyone is saying about live ingame betting these games. But I actually think the #1 key is anticipation on line moves. We anticipate what will happen in the game and we wager accordingly, it is the same thing, forecasting which players or coaches are likely to leave or stay and where the line will go. I watched some of the openers this year, some of the early movement and the current position. Next year 100% I'm going to anticipate the hell out of all these bowl lines. I will be right on some and wrong on some, just like real bets.

LSU was -5 early on.
 
I would not say that Florida has checked out as a team. A lot of their top players have, yes. But this isn't a lame duck coaching staff and the guys not opting out or who are not NFL ready yet haven't checked out I don't think. That stadium in Las Vegas makes the game seem cooler and bigger than it really is, so I think that helps as well. Year 1 of the new regime and the guys who are playing, I think they will all care and likely to be giving it their best. What their best looks like at QB I have no idea. Think that is where the game is determined, but think Florida should show up and compete.
 
Arkansas is not a team I have any kind of pulse on. Just know they've been upset in their last two games as a favorite vs teams that seemed more up for the games (Liberty and Mizzou). Arkansas has been mostly disappointing all year, why stop now? Kansas I would certainly have to believe is going to be very up. Their coach didn't leave, they had the kind of year for Jayhawk football that really means something to get back to a bowl game for the first time since these kids were in elementary school. But is getting to the bowl really the end? Jayhawks lost 6 of their last 7 games. I think Kansas has something to prove to themselves, getting to a bowl is not enough, winning it is. But they better be getting better during these bowl practices.
 
s--k said:
I would not say that Florida has checked out as a team. A lot of their top players have, yes. But this isn't a lame duck coaching staff and the guys not opting out or who are not NFL ready yet haven't checked out I don't think. That stadium in Las Vegas makes the game seem cooler and bigger than it really is, so I think that helps as well. Year 1 of the new regime and the guys who are playing, I think they will all care and likely to be giving it their best. What their best looks like at QB I have no idea. Think that is where the game is determined, but think Florida should show up and compete.
Click to expand...

Also, Florida has lost by 12 as 7pt fav and by 35 as 6 pt fav to OU two years ago. How many players were on the 2019 team, the last one to win a bowl game? I would think the ones that were on the 2020 and 2021 teams don't want to show up and get their shit kicked in again. So hopefully they are taking it seriously. Napier was 2-1 straight up in bowls at ULL, although his only loss, was his first year losing by 17 getting 3.5
 
s--k said:
I think what happened to LSU in last year's bowl is enough to make sure they show up and care, but now the line is 2 TDs and Purdue's best players on O aren't playing so of course they will win.

I agree with what everyone is saying about live ingame betting these games. But I actually think the #1 key is anticipation on line moves. We anticipate what will happen in the game and we wager accordingly, it is the same thing, forecasting which players or coaches are likely to leave or stay and where the line will go. I watched some of the openers this year, some of the early movement and the current position. Next year 100% I'm going to anticipate the hell out of all these bowl lines. I will be right on some and wrong on some, just like real bets.

LSU was -5 early on.
Click to expand...
the opt outs for Purdue I think made the jump I think. B10 leading WR was one etc..
 
twinkie13 said:
the opt outs for Purdue I think made the jump I think. B10 leading WR was one etc..
Click to expand...

It went to 7.5/8 pretty quick and then sat about 10 for a week 12/7 to 12/14 and then went up to 14 on the news of the QB, TE and WR

I don't know if he is a 6th year. He was the primary starter for 2 years and shared starting duties the two years before that.
 
Levis and CRod have opted out of the bowl game for my Cats. .... not sure if either team will score a point in the MCB.
 
2 games tomorrow. I think I like both SEC teams, but I'm willing to listen to opposition. Seems like there could be a lot of points scored in Memphis, so looking at the over there too
 
Here we are about an hour before UK/Iowa game time and I still don’t see how either offense is going to be able to score against either defense …..
 
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