Mariners vs. Astros Game 1 Odds and Top Picks
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 3:37 p.m. ET (TBS) at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Who Starts for Seattle?
Logan Gilbert starts for Seattle today.
The fact that Gilbert is facing a familiar opponent will not exercise any negative influence on the result of whether this game goes over or under the posted total.
Whereas the "under" hits in 58.1 percent of his starts overall, the "under" hits in 69.2 percent of his starts against division rivals.
While Astro batters are certainly familiar with Gilbert, Gilbert is also familiar with Astro batters, and, individually, he has been no worse off for facing them multiple times this season.
Gilbert's Form
Gilbert enters today's game in great form.
He has allowed one run or zero runs in five of his last six starts.
Pitch Quality
The quality of Gilbert's different pitches largely explains his success.
While this is true of any successful pitcher, the upshot of Gilbert's pitch quality is that he has a greater margin of error in terms of where he locates his pitches.
In other words, he can more easily locate his pitches in dangerous parts of the strike zone without being punished for it.
Whereas this is not true so much for plate-nibblers and the like, it is for Gilbert.
Gilbert's Fastball
Primarily, Gilbert throws a fastball.
He throws this pitch more than half the time.
As heat maps show, he is fine throwing it in the middle parts of the plate.
Gilbert's fastball is hard to hit because of its velocity. It averages 96.1 mph.
Gilbert's Slider
His fastball, though, is not his best pitch.
When an opponent does make contact with his heater and does end up on base, he ably resolves to throwing other pitches.
The slider is Gilbert's second-most frequent pitch.
Again, he often leaves it in the middle of the plate, but opponents still struggle to deal with it.
This pitch yields a .223 BA and .335 slugging rate.
It plays well off his fastball because he typically keeps it low while he likes to elevate his fastball.
In addition to playing both pitches well off each other by changing the batter's eye level, Gilbert uses both pitches to create a change of pace that keeps the batter off-balance.
This change of pace is a product of the 10-mph velocity differential between both pitches.
Rest
Gilbert's form, including the pitches that he favors, will continue to be top-notch because he enjoys his ideal situation in terms of rest.
His ERA is at its best when he goes six or more days in between starts.
With this much rest, his ERA is 2.91.
Conversely, bats can easily get rusty when they are not swung in some time.
Houston may suffer offensively for not having played in the Wildcard Round.
This circumstance is a bonus consideration that, if anything, will further favor Gilbert.
Who Starts for Houston?
Justin Verlander starts for the Astros today.
Despite regularly getting dealt low totals by the oddsmakers, Verlander is a strong "under" pitcher.
The "under" is hitting in 74.1 percent of his starts.
Like Gilbert, he is a solid "under" pitcher against division rivals.
He is also in an ideal spot in terms of rest because his career ERA is 2.89 when he pitches off six or more days of rest.
Verlander's Form
Verlander enters today's game in great form.
He has not allowed more than two runs in a start since August 16, and he has not allowed over three runs since June 18.
His consistency makes him a uniquely reliable "under" pitcher.
Verlander vs. Mariner Batters
In addition to being consistently superb overall, Verlander is consistently excellent against the Mariners, especially in Houston.
This year, he has faced them in Houston three times.
On May 4, he suffered his worst home start against them, allowing two runs in 6.2 innings.
After this game, he allowed a combined total of two runs in 14.2 innings when Seattle visited Houston.
The Verdict
I prefer the full-game "under" for this game because both pitchers reliably last six or more innings.
Both bullpens, also, are two of the best at limiting runs.
In such a low-scoring and competitive game, it feels like a steal to get the underdog run-line at a cheap price.
Best Bet: Under 6.5 at +100 with BetOnline & Mariners RL at -120 with BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 3:37 p.m. ET (TBS) at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Who Starts for Seattle?
Logan Gilbert starts for Seattle today.
The fact that Gilbert is facing a familiar opponent will not exercise any negative influence on the result of whether this game goes over or under the posted total.
Whereas the "under" hits in 58.1 percent of his starts overall, the "under" hits in 69.2 percent of his starts against division rivals.
While Astro batters are certainly familiar with Gilbert, Gilbert is also familiar with Astro batters, and, individually, he has been no worse off for facing them multiple times this season.
Gilbert's Form
Gilbert enters today's game in great form.
He has allowed one run or zero runs in five of his last six starts.
Pitch Quality
The quality of Gilbert's different pitches largely explains his success.
While this is true of any successful pitcher, the upshot of Gilbert's pitch quality is that he has a greater margin of error in terms of where he locates his pitches.
In other words, he can more easily locate his pitches in dangerous parts of the strike zone without being punished for it.
Whereas this is not true so much for plate-nibblers and the like, it is for Gilbert.
Gilbert's Fastball
Primarily, Gilbert throws a fastball.
He throws this pitch more than half the time.
As heat maps show, he is fine throwing it in the middle parts of the plate.
Gilbert's fastball is hard to hit because of its velocity. It averages 96.1 mph.
Gilbert's Slider
His fastball, though, is not his best pitch.
When an opponent does make contact with his heater and does end up on base, he ably resolves to throwing other pitches.
The slider is Gilbert's second-most frequent pitch.
Again, he often leaves it in the middle of the plate, but opponents still struggle to deal with it.
This pitch yields a .223 BA and .335 slugging rate.
It plays well off his fastball because he typically keeps it low while he likes to elevate his fastball.
In addition to playing both pitches well off each other by changing the batter's eye level, Gilbert uses both pitches to create a change of pace that keeps the batter off-balance.
This change of pace is a product of the 10-mph velocity differential between both pitches.
Rest
Gilbert's form, including the pitches that he favors, will continue to be top-notch because he enjoys his ideal situation in terms of rest.
His ERA is at its best when he goes six or more days in between starts.
With this much rest, his ERA is 2.91.
Conversely, bats can easily get rusty when they are not swung in some time.
Houston may suffer offensively for not having played in the Wildcard Round.
This circumstance is a bonus consideration that, if anything, will further favor Gilbert.
Who Starts for Houston?
Justin Verlander starts for the Astros today.
Despite regularly getting dealt low totals by the oddsmakers, Verlander is a strong "under" pitcher.
The "under" is hitting in 74.1 percent of his starts.
Like Gilbert, he is a solid "under" pitcher against division rivals.
He is also in an ideal spot in terms of rest because his career ERA is 2.89 when he pitches off six or more days of rest.
Verlander's Form
Verlander enters today's game in great form.
He has not allowed more than two runs in a start since August 16, and he has not allowed over three runs since June 18.
His consistency makes him a uniquely reliable "under" pitcher.
Verlander vs. Mariner Batters
In addition to being consistently superb overall, Verlander is consistently excellent against the Mariners, especially in Houston.
This year, he has faced them in Houston three times.
On May 4, he suffered his worst home start against them, allowing two runs in 6.2 innings.
After this game, he allowed a combined total of two runs in 14.2 innings when Seattle visited Houston.
The Verdict
I prefer the full-game "under" for this game because both pitchers reliably last six or more innings.
Both bullpens, also, are two of the best at limiting runs.
In such a low-scoring and competitive game, it feels like a steal to get the underdog run-line at a cheap price.
Best Bet: Under 6.5 at +100 with BetOnline & Mariners RL at -120 with BetOnline
