Tuesday’s Astros-M’s Snooze-Fest Will Generate More Yawns Than Runs
When Seattle hosts Houston at 10:10 ET on Tuesday night on the MLB Network, slumping lineups and strong pitchers will keep the score „under“ the total set by oddsmakers.
MLB Pick: Under
Houston’s Charlie Morton (11-2, 2.89 ERA) seems to have improved greatly, dropping his ERA from 3.62 last season to 2.89 this season. But actually, his current 3.45 FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is nearly identical to last season’s. In Morton’s case, his ERA will not climb to where his FIP is because for so many seasons his ERA had been higher than his FIP. Over time, a pitcher’s ERA and FIP tend to align themselves, meaning that luck balances itself out. After 206 starts, Morton’s career ERA is still .30 higher than his career FIP and he will continue to enjoy statistical progression.
Morton is partly lucky in that he's stranding baserunners at a high rate and prospering from a lower opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite allowing more hard contact and line drives. But he is also good. He relies primarily on a fastball-sinker-curve combo, throwing each with between 25 and 31% frequency. By introducing a greater variety of his pitches with two strikes, he has made himself more unpredictable than last season. He strikes out 1.48 batters more per nine innings. Morton has also improved his quality by adding greater horizontal and vertical movement to his curveball. This season, opponents bat .121 against it and whiff against it more often because it’s more elusive.
Seattle batters struggle against Morton. In 126 career at-bats, they’re hitting .230 and slugging .341 against him. Jean Segura leads Seattle in BA, Nelson Cruz in slugging. Combined, they’re 12-for-53 (.226) with three extra-base hits against Morton. Dating to 2017, Morton has conceded one run in his last 13 innings against Seattle. Against Morton’s three pitches, Seattle ranks 23rd in slugging. Its lineup shows poor form, only twice since the All-Star Break scoring more than three runs. One time came against the White Sox and their punching bag Reynaldo Lopez and the other time were garbage runs after Seattle was down 11-2 in the eighth in Anaheim.
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Seattle’s Mike Leake (8-6, 4.15 ERA) has conceded three earned runs and yielded an FIP under 3.00 in his last two starts (12.1 innings). His first outing against Houston in April was tough luck. He lasted six innings and produced a 7:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but was let down by his defense in a six-run seventh inning, after he had allowed one run in the previous six innings. His 1.83 FIP attests to his strong individual performance.
Leake relies on five different pitches with at least ten percent frequency. His favorite is the sinker, which he leans on especially as a first pitch, when the batter is ahead, or in an even count. He tends to live and die with this pitch. In his last two strong performances, opponents hit under .150 against it. Conversely, opponents hit .500 or better against it in his last two losses. Leake can improve his sinker’s performance when he throws it less predictably. He mixes in his pitches well when he’s ahead of the count or with two strikes.
Houston is slumping without two of its best hitters, Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve. Altuve leads Houston in BA and is the only Astro hitting above .300. Since Altuve got injured on Wednesday, the Astros have averaged 2.5 runs in four games, producing either two or three runs. Opposing pitchers are able to be more confident against them. Once one of the best lineups in inspiring a low opposing first-strike rate, in the past week they’re below average in the category, meaning that Leake should be able to get ahead of counts and stay more unpredictable. But even if he doesn’t, Houston ranks 27th in slugging against his favorite pitch, the sinker, from righties—and that ranking factors in Altuve.
Both bullpens rank in the top eight in terms of FIP and will keep this game „under."
When Seattle hosts Houston at 10:10 ET on Tuesday night on the MLB Network, slumping lineups and strong pitchers will keep the score „under“ the total set by oddsmakers.
MLB Pick: Under
Houston’s Charlie Morton (11-2, 2.89 ERA) seems to have improved greatly, dropping his ERA from 3.62 last season to 2.89 this season. But actually, his current 3.45 FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is nearly identical to last season’s. In Morton’s case, his ERA will not climb to where his FIP is because for so many seasons his ERA had been higher than his FIP. Over time, a pitcher’s ERA and FIP tend to align themselves, meaning that luck balances itself out. After 206 starts, Morton’s career ERA is still .30 higher than his career FIP and he will continue to enjoy statistical progression.
Morton is partly lucky in that he's stranding baserunners at a high rate and prospering from a lower opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite allowing more hard contact and line drives. But he is also good. He relies primarily on a fastball-sinker-curve combo, throwing each with between 25 and 31% frequency. By introducing a greater variety of his pitches with two strikes, he has made himself more unpredictable than last season. He strikes out 1.48 batters more per nine innings. Morton has also improved his quality by adding greater horizontal and vertical movement to his curveball. This season, opponents bat .121 against it and whiff against it more often because it’s more elusive.
Seattle batters struggle against Morton. In 126 career at-bats, they’re hitting .230 and slugging .341 against him. Jean Segura leads Seattle in BA, Nelson Cruz in slugging. Combined, they’re 12-for-53 (.226) with three extra-base hits against Morton. Dating to 2017, Morton has conceded one run in his last 13 innings against Seattle. Against Morton’s three pitches, Seattle ranks 23rd in slugging. Its lineup shows poor form, only twice since the All-Star Break scoring more than three runs. One time came against the White Sox and their punching bag Reynaldo Lopez and the other time were garbage runs after Seattle was down 11-2 in the eighth in Anaheim.
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Seattle’s Mike Leake (8-6, 4.15 ERA) has conceded three earned runs and yielded an FIP under 3.00 in his last two starts (12.1 innings). His first outing against Houston in April was tough luck. He lasted six innings and produced a 7:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but was let down by his defense in a six-run seventh inning, after he had allowed one run in the previous six innings. His 1.83 FIP attests to his strong individual performance.
Leake relies on five different pitches with at least ten percent frequency. His favorite is the sinker, which he leans on especially as a first pitch, when the batter is ahead, or in an even count. He tends to live and die with this pitch. In his last two strong performances, opponents hit under .150 against it. Conversely, opponents hit .500 or better against it in his last two losses. Leake can improve his sinker’s performance when he throws it less predictably. He mixes in his pitches well when he’s ahead of the count or with two strikes.
Houston is slumping without two of its best hitters, Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve. Altuve leads Houston in BA and is the only Astro hitting above .300. Since Altuve got injured on Wednesday, the Astros have averaged 2.5 runs in four games, producing either two or three runs. Opposing pitchers are able to be more confident against them. Once one of the best lineups in inspiring a low opposing first-strike rate, in the past week they’re below average in the category, meaning that Leake should be able to get ahead of counts and stay more unpredictable. But even if he doesn’t, Houston ranks 27th in slugging against his favorite pitch, the sinker, from righties—and that ranking factors in Altuve.
Both bullpens rank in the top eight in terms of FIP and will keep this game „under."
