Mariners vs. Astros ALDS Game 2 Best Bets
Who Starts for Seattle?
The Mariners start Luis Castillo for today's game.
I find it incredible that the Mariners are listed at +140 despite the fact that Castillo, with his 2.99 ERA and 3.07 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), is starting.
Overall, Castillo has been a profitable pitcher for bettors to back.
He's yielding +2.2 units in his starts.
Castillo as an Underdog
Pertinently to my favorite play for this game, he has thrived in the underdog role.
Oddsmakers have repeatedly listed him in this role, and he makes doubters pay.
As the underdog, Castillo is yielding +8.8 units.
In fact, his team has won the last seven games in which he was posted as the underdog.
During this win streak, his biggest upset victory was when he was posted at +165 at the Yankees.
This, therefore, is not a matter of something being too good to be true.
It is a matter of oddsmakers repeatedly and foolishly underrating Castillo.
Castillo's Improvement
Castillo, to be fair, is enjoying a unique kind of year the quality of which many might not have expected.
His regular season ERA was .99 better this season than it was last season.
While he's always been one to strike a lot of batters out -- he does this especially with his high-velo fastball, but he also has other pitches that yield a high whiff rate -- his command needed work.
Crucially, he is walking much fewer batters while surrendering fewer home runs.
Castillo's Pitch Breakdown
Castillo's pitch selection consists in four options.
He throws his fastball, sinker, changeup, and slider.
These four pitches make up the entirety of his arsenal.
Specifically, he throws each pitch between 21 and 33 percent of the time.
This level of variety and balance in his pitch selection helps make him less predictable.
If a pitch isn't working for him in a given outing, he can rely on three other pitches to be effective.
Castillo's Pitch Quality
But Castillo's best pitches typically work for him.
His pitch selection is intelligent in that he throws his very best pitch most often.
Opponents are hitting just .152 and slugging .194 against his fastball, as they struggle to deal with its combination of velocity and spin rate.
Castillo's fastball averages 97.1 mph, which puts it in the 93rdpercentile in velocity.
But also, it ranks in the 60thpercentile in spin rate.
This combination makes Castillo's fastball uniquely solid and, in terms of quality, comparable to the best fastballs, such as Gerrit Cole's,
Batters struggle to keep up with Castillo's heater, and they have trouble tracking its location in view of its spin rate.
Castillo likes to elevate this pitch, whose spin gives it the appearance of rising action, inducing batters to swing underneath it.
He'll also play this pitch off slower pitches.
In addition to creating a change of pace via this velocity differential, he'll change the batter's eye level by locating especially pitches other than the fastball lower in the strike zone.
Matchup Consideration
Castillo is a reliable option even against teams that match up well against him.
While there are teams who hit his pitches well, they face iterations of those pitches that are inferior to Castillo's.
Hence, Castillo thrived repeatedly against, for example, the Yankees, although they ranked higher than Houston in slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Houston?
Framber Valdez starts for the Astros today.
It's noteworthy that Valdez is left-handed because Seattle hits lefties slightly better than righties.
More to the point, the Mariners rank well above-average in slugging rate against Valdez's favorite pitches from lefties.
Bets for this Game
Given Seattle's matchup potential against Valdez and the fact that Castillo is pitching, I like Seattle to score first at -130 with Bovada.
Also, since the Mariners will ride their starting pitcher advantage, I like them to win both half-time and full-time at +200 with Bovada.
For the above reasons, I like the Mariners' ML at +144 with Heritage.
Best Bet: Seattle to score first at -130 with Bovada; Mariners half time / full time at +200 with Bovada; Mariners ML at +144 with Heritage
Who Starts for Seattle?
The Mariners start Luis Castillo for today's game.
I find it incredible that the Mariners are listed at +140 despite the fact that Castillo, with his 2.99 ERA and 3.07 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), is starting.
Overall, Castillo has been a profitable pitcher for bettors to back.
He's yielding +2.2 units in his starts.
Castillo as an Underdog
Pertinently to my favorite play for this game, he has thrived in the underdog role.
Oddsmakers have repeatedly listed him in this role, and he makes doubters pay.
As the underdog, Castillo is yielding +8.8 units.
In fact, his team has won the last seven games in which he was posted as the underdog.
During this win streak, his biggest upset victory was when he was posted at +165 at the Yankees.
This, therefore, is not a matter of something being too good to be true.
It is a matter of oddsmakers repeatedly and foolishly underrating Castillo.
Castillo's Improvement
Castillo, to be fair, is enjoying a unique kind of year the quality of which many might not have expected.
His regular season ERA was .99 better this season than it was last season.
While he's always been one to strike a lot of batters out -- he does this especially with his high-velo fastball, but he also has other pitches that yield a high whiff rate -- his command needed work.
Crucially, he is walking much fewer batters while surrendering fewer home runs.
Castillo's Pitch Breakdown
Castillo's pitch selection consists in four options.
He throws his fastball, sinker, changeup, and slider.
These four pitches make up the entirety of his arsenal.
Specifically, he throws each pitch between 21 and 33 percent of the time.
This level of variety and balance in his pitch selection helps make him less predictable.
If a pitch isn't working for him in a given outing, he can rely on three other pitches to be effective.
Castillo's Pitch Quality
But Castillo's best pitches typically work for him.
His pitch selection is intelligent in that he throws his very best pitch most often.
Opponents are hitting just .152 and slugging .194 against his fastball, as they struggle to deal with its combination of velocity and spin rate.
Castillo's fastball averages 97.1 mph, which puts it in the 93rdpercentile in velocity.
But also, it ranks in the 60thpercentile in spin rate.
This combination makes Castillo's fastball uniquely solid and, in terms of quality, comparable to the best fastballs, such as Gerrit Cole's,
Batters struggle to keep up with Castillo's heater, and they have trouble tracking its location in view of its spin rate.
Castillo likes to elevate this pitch, whose spin gives it the appearance of rising action, inducing batters to swing underneath it.
He'll also play this pitch off slower pitches.
In addition to creating a change of pace via this velocity differential, he'll change the batter's eye level by locating especially pitches other than the fastball lower in the strike zone.
Matchup Consideration
Castillo is a reliable option even against teams that match up well against him.
While there are teams who hit his pitches well, they face iterations of those pitches that are inferior to Castillo's.
Hence, Castillo thrived repeatedly against, for example, the Yankees, although they ranked higher than Houston in slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Houston?
Framber Valdez starts for the Astros today.
It's noteworthy that Valdez is left-handed because Seattle hits lefties slightly better than righties.
More to the point, the Mariners rank well above-average in slugging rate against Valdez's favorite pitches from lefties.
Bets for this Game
Given Seattle's matchup potential against Valdez and the fact that Castillo is pitching, I like Seattle to score first at -130 with Bovada.
Also, since the Mariners will ride their starting pitcher advantage, I like them to win both half-time and full-time at +200 with Bovada.
For the above reasons, I like the Mariners' ML at +144 with Heritage.
Best Bet: Seattle to score first at -130 with Bovada; Mariners half time / full time at +200 with Bovada; Mariners ML at +144 with Heritage
