O Canada! Bettors Will Sing Praises for Seattle’s Ace Against Boston
Seattle looks to even its series against Boston tonight. Who better to help Seattle than its ace from Canada, James Paxton?
Boston Red Sox (48-22) at Seattle Mariners (44-25)
MLB Pick: Seattle ML
Bettors should update their perspective of Boston’s Rick Porcello (8-3, 3.54 ERA). In his first seven starts, he yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) of 3.20 or lower. But in three of his last four, he yielded a 4.40+ FIP. He’s allowed above his season average in both line drive and hard contact percentage in his past three starts. But a fortunately low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) has benefitted his ERA.
Viewed next to his first seven starts, the vertical release points of his pitches show strong variation, which indicate an inconsistent delivery. He is leaving the ball with over 3% higher frequency in the heart of the plate. He is varying the location of his pitches less and, instead of concentrating them low, he is leaving them rather in the upper-middle regions of the zone. Opponents are taking advantage of Porcello's location difficulties, slugging over .500 since May 24 against him in the middle and upper-middle parts of the zone.
Seattle is yielding +16.8 units against right-handed starters. Seattle is second in slugging against the sinker and slider—Porcello’s two primary pitches— from righties and yet they are the third most underachieving team against these pitches based on the metric SLG-xSLG, which compares a team’s slugging rate with its expected slugging based on the quality of contact achieved. Porcello is suffering poor form despite three of his last four starts coming against teams who rank below-average against his primary pitches. Lefties are slugging .454 against Porcello, so watch out for Ben Gamel, who is slugging .600 in June, .579 at home, and .434 versus righties.
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James Paxton (6-1, 3.02 ERA) has won six consecutive decisions for Seattle. Paxton loves pitching at home, where opponents are batting .174 against him. Paxton has returned home after two consecutive road starts three times in 2018. In this scenario, he is 2-0. He yielded an ERA of 2.00 or under in each of those starts. This trend is consistent throughout his career. Last season, for example, he was 1-0 in two starts, allowing one earned run in 12.1 innings.
Paxton is enjoying strong form, yielding an FIP under 2.20 in three of his past five starts and 3.50 or under in his last five. Despite already being an ace, Paxton made himself better, earning a 2.26 May FIP and 2.00 FIP so far in June. As someone who relies mostly on his fastball, Paxton’s keys have been to improve its location and develop his breaking pitches. In May, he threw his curveball with ten percent extra frequency. Nevertheless, opponents batted .143 against it. His improved curveball has made him less predictable. In April, he threw his fastball with almost 70% frequency for a first-pitch strike. In May, he strongly increased his first-pitch curveball usage so that he could freeze batters with it if they tried to sit on his 97 mph heater. Paxton is also elevating his fastballs with higher frequency into the highest row of the strike zone, where he is inducing the highest whiff rate. Opponents’ BA against his fastball dropped from .211 in April to .147 in May. Paxton’s development offers him more tools to work with when runners are in scoring position, in which scenario, for example, he’s doubled his first-pitch curveball usage. Since May, he’s dropped opponents’ slugging with RISP from .385 in April to .233.
Boston is yielding negative units against southpaws. In 50 career at-bats against Paxton, they’ve produced only three extra-base hits and two runs. Boston ranks 28th in slugging against the 94-99 mph fastball. Seattle has won 11 of 14 and will continue its strong form.
Seattle looks to even its series against Boston tonight. Who better to help Seattle than its ace from Canada, James Paxton?
Boston Red Sox (48-22) at Seattle Mariners (44-25)
MLB Pick: Seattle ML
Bettors should update their perspective of Boston’s Rick Porcello (8-3, 3.54 ERA). In his first seven starts, he yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) of 3.20 or lower. But in three of his last four, he yielded a 4.40+ FIP. He’s allowed above his season average in both line drive and hard contact percentage in his past three starts. But a fortunately low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) has benefitted his ERA.
Viewed next to his first seven starts, the vertical release points of his pitches show strong variation, which indicate an inconsistent delivery. He is leaving the ball with over 3% higher frequency in the heart of the plate. He is varying the location of his pitches less and, instead of concentrating them low, he is leaving them rather in the upper-middle regions of the zone. Opponents are taking advantage of Porcello's location difficulties, slugging over .500 since May 24 against him in the middle and upper-middle parts of the zone.
Seattle is yielding +16.8 units against right-handed starters. Seattle is second in slugging against the sinker and slider—Porcello’s two primary pitches— from righties and yet they are the third most underachieving team against these pitches based on the metric SLG-xSLG, which compares a team’s slugging rate with its expected slugging based on the quality of contact achieved. Porcello is suffering poor form despite three of his last four starts coming against teams who rank below-average against his primary pitches. Lefties are slugging .454 against Porcello, so watch out for Ben Gamel, who is slugging .600 in June, .579 at home, and .434 versus righties.
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James Paxton (6-1, 3.02 ERA) has won six consecutive decisions for Seattle. Paxton loves pitching at home, where opponents are batting .174 against him. Paxton has returned home after two consecutive road starts three times in 2018. In this scenario, he is 2-0. He yielded an ERA of 2.00 or under in each of those starts. This trend is consistent throughout his career. Last season, for example, he was 1-0 in two starts, allowing one earned run in 12.1 innings.
Paxton is enjoying strong form, yielding an FIP under 2.20 in three of his past five starts and 3.50 or under in his last five. Despite already being an ace, Paxton made himself better, earning a 2.26 May FIP and 2.00 FIP so far in June. As someone who relies mostly on his fastball, Paxton’s keys have been to improve its location and develop his breaking pitches. In May, he threw his curveball with ten percent extra frequency. Nevertheless, opponents batted .143 against it. His improved curveball has made him less predictable. In April, he threw his fastball with almost 70% frequency for a first-pitch strike. In May, he strongly increased his first-pitch curveball usage so that he could freeze batters with it if they tried to sit on his 97 mph heater. Paxton is also elevating his fastballs with higher frequency into the highest row of the strike zone, where he is inducing the highest whiff rate. Opponents’ BA against his fastball dropped from .211 in April to .147 in May. Paxton’s development offers him more tools to work with when runners are in scoring position, in which scenario, for example, he’s doubled his first-pitch curveball usage. Since May, he’s dropped opponents’ slugging with RISP from .385 in April to .233.
Boston is yielding negative units against southpaws. In 50 career at-bats against Paxton, they’ve produced only three extra-base hits and two runs. Boston ranks 28th in slugging against the 94-99 mph fastball. Seattle has won 11 of 14 and will continue its strong form.
