MLB Parlay for May 17: A Bet That Pays (+300)
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre in Toronto
Who Is Pitching for Toronto?
Tonight, Toronto starts struggling pitcher Jose Berrios.
This year, Berrios is suffering his worst numbers since his rookie year.
His ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) were only worse as a rookie.
Moreover, his strikeout rate has never been so bad -- it was higher even in his rookie year -- while he is allowing the second-highest rate of home runs in any season in his career.
Berrios' struggles were apparent in his first start of the season and they continue to surface in his most recent outings.
In his last two starts, Berrios has allowed a combined total of 11 runs.
While one may try to find a basis for optimism in the fact that he returns home tonight after two road starts, his current home FIP (5.10) is nearly identical to his awful road FIP (5.15).
Berrios' Stuff
Primarily, Berrios throws a fastball, curveball, and sinker.
These three pitches make up close to 90 percent of his repertoire.
In terms of frequency, his fastball is his favorite pitch.
This is, above all, the pitch that opposing batters are feasting on.
They are hitting .392 and slugging .647 against Berrios' fastball.
One aspect of this pitch that opposing batters exploit is its poor location. Heat maps show that Berrios often leaves his fastball in the more middle, dangerous parts of the strike zone.
Berrios vs. Mariner Batters
I like Mariner batters tonight because they rank fifth in slugging .440 against Berrios' three favorite pitches from righties.
Look out, for example, for Ty France whose BA has never been better.
France is 2-for-3 lifetime against Berrios.
Who Is Starting for Seattle?
In contrast to Berrios, Mariner starter Logan Gilbert has improved greatly from last year to this one.
One thing that Gilbert has done a great job of is limiting the long ball.
Gilbert has flexed his muscles especially on the road.
Seattle is 4-0 in his road starts, yielding +4.6 units.
On the road, Gilbert has yet to allow more than one earned run.
His road success has persisted even when his opponent has matched up well against his pitches.
The fact that Gilbert gets to pitch outside of Seattle tonight creates strong betting value for the M's.
Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
Who Is Pitching for Minnesota?
Minnesota starts Dylan Bundy tonight.
Bundy would love to return to his home ballpark where he has pitched excellently this season.
He is coming off two starts, however, in which he was catastrophic.
After allowing six earned runs in Tampa Bay, he allowed nine in lowly Baltimore.
Now he has to travel to the Oakland Coliseum where history suggests that we should see more struggles from Bundy tonight.
In four career starts in Oakland, his ERA is 5.40.
Who Is Pitching for Oakland?
Oakland starts James Kaprielian.
One noteworthy aspect of Kaprielian is that he tries to induce fly balls at an extremely high rate.
This tendency is reinforced by the limited extent to which he induces ground balls.
Of course, the danger with fly balls is that, if the opposing batter hits them far enough, they become home runs.
Perhaps the fact that Minnesota ranks ninth in home runs per game explains the aptitude with which it slugs against fly ball pitchers.
Because the Twins are strongest -- as statistics such as OPS (on-base plus slugging) show -- against the type of pitcher Kaprielian is, I perceive value in their lineup tonight.
Best Bet: Mariners ML at +118 & Twins/Athletics over 7 at -120 at +300 with BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre in Toronto
Who Is Pitching for Toronto?
Tonight, Toronto starts struggling pitcher Jose Berrios.
This year, Berrios is suffering his worst numbers since his rookie year.
His ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) were only worse as a rookie.
Moreover, his strikeout rate has never been so bad -- it was higher even in his rookie year -- while he is allowing the second-highest rate of home runs in any season in his career.
Berrios' struggles were apparent in his first start of the season and they continue to surface in his most recent outings.
In his last two starts, Berrios has allowed a combined total of 11 runs.
While one may try to find a basis for optimism in the fact that he returns home tonight after two road starts, his current home FIP (5.10) is nearly identical to his awful road FIP (5.15).
Berrios' Stuff
Primarily, Berrios throws a fastball, curveball, and sinker.
These three pitches make up close to 90 percent of his repertoire.
In terms of frequency, his fastball is his favorite pitch.
This is, above all, the pitch that opposing batters are feasting on.
They are hitting .392 and slugging .647 against Berrios' fastball.
One aspect of this pitch that opposing batters exploit is its poor location. Heat maps show that Berrios often leaves his fastball in the more middle, dangerous parts of the strike zone.
Berrios vs. Mariner Batters
I like Mariner batters tonight because they rank fifth in slugging .440 against Berrios' three favorite pitches from righties.
Look out, for example, for Ty France whose BA has never been better.
France is 2-for-3 lifetime against Berrios.
Who Is Starting for Seattle?
In contrast to Berrios, Mariner starter Logan Gilbert has improved greatly from last year to this one.
One thing that Gilbert has done a great job of is limiting the long ball.
Gilbert has flexed his muscles especially on the road.
Seattle is 4-0 in his road starts, yielding +4.6 units.
On the road, Gilbert has yet to allow more than one earned run.
His road success has persisted even when his opponent has matched up well against his pitches.
The fact that Gilbert gets to pitch outside of Seattle tonight creates strong betting value for the M's.
Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
Who Is Pitching for Minnesota?
Minnesota starts Dylan Bundy tonight.
Bundy would love to return to his home ballpark where he has pitched excellently this season.
He is coming off two starts, however, in which he was catastrophic.
After allowing six earned runs in Tampa Bay, he allowed nine in lowly Baltimore.
Now he has to travel to the Oakland Coliseum where history suggests that we should see more struggles from Bundy tonight.
In four career starts in Oakland, his ERA is 5.40.
Who Is Pitching for Oakland?
Oakland starts James Kaprielian.
One noteworthy aspect of Kaprielian is that he tries to induce fly balls at an extremely high rate.
This tendency is reinforced by the limited extent to which he induces ground balls.
Of course, the danger with fly balls is that, if the opposing batter hits them far enough, they become home runs.
Perhaps the fact that Minnesota ranks ninth in home runs per game explains the aptitude with which it slugs against fly ball pitchers.
Because the Twins are strongest -- as statistics such as OPS (on-base plus slugging) show -- against the type of pitcher Kaprielian is, I perceive value in their lineup tonight.
Best Bet: Mariners ML at +118 & Twins/Athletics over 7 at -120 at +300 with BetOnline
