Bet This Fourth of July MLB Parlay at (+280)
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Team Form
When betting on baseball, it is valuable to look at how a team has been performing even though starting pitchers rotate because the entire team can be affected in unison by the same rhythm.
While Seattle might therefore seem reliable because it has been winning doing a good job of winning games lately, one has to pay attention to its opponents.
The Mariners have faced nothing but losing teams since June 16.
They faced the Angels eight times, Oakland seven times, and Baltimore three times.
Today's game will mark a meaningful change for the Mariners in that they will finally face another winning team in San Diego.
Who Starts for Seattle?
Chris Flexen starts for Seattle. He is the team's second-least profitable pitcher.
Flexen has been particularly costly to back on the road and as an underdog.
Seattle is 2-6 and yields -3.6 units in road games in which Flexen has started.
Moreover, the Mariners are 2-9 and yield -5.7 units in games in Flexen starts where they are listed as the underdog.
This year, Flexen is the subpar pitcher that one expects him to be.
He is striking out two batters for every one he walks.
His opposing home run rate is also poor.
Matchup Details
One reason why I dislike Flexen today is that he matches up poorly against Padre batters.
Primarily, Flexen induces fly balls.
San Diego, however, is at its best against fly-ball pitchers.
Whereas the Padres' OPS (on-base plus slugging) is .666 against ground-ball pitchers, it is .748 against fly ball ones.
Opponent History
Furthermore, Flexen's history against San Diego is terrible.
He is 0-2 with a 21.21 ERA in two career starts against the Padres.
Active Padre batters are combined 10-for-18 in their career facing Flexen.
Eric Hosmer is one Padre who is 2-for-2 lifetime against him.
Who Starts for San Diego?
The Padres start Sean Manaea tonight.
Manaea is a lefty who primarily throws three pitches: his sinker, changeup, and slider.
These three pitches combine to make up 98.9 percent of his arsenal.
He merits optimism tonight because Seattle ranks 26thin slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Atlanta
Who Starts for St. Louis?
St. Louis starts Dakota Hudson.
Hudson will not try to blow heaters past opposing batters.
He doesn't throw hard.
Likewise, he won't primarily try to induce batters to chase his pitches outside the strike zone.
Instead, generally, he tries to induce batters to make weak contact with his pitches inside the strike zone.
He does some things well enough to make him a reliable pitcher.
For example, he injects a strong level of variety in his arsenal by not throwing any one pitch 40 percent or more of the time.
Primarily, Hudson throws a slider and sinker. He throws both pitches between 29 and 38 percent of the time.
He also mixes in a fastball and curveball frequently.
Moreover, he does a great job of varying the location of his pitches, as heat maps show.
Thus, Hudson makes himself unpredictable while making full use of the strike zone with many different pitches that, despite lacking spin, generally have unusual levels of vertical movement.
His worst trait is his command, but there is no correlation between games in which he walks more batters and his win-loss record in those games.
What matters for Hudson is how he matches up with opposing batters.
Hudson vs. Brave Batters
Hudson merits optimism today because he is very clearly a ground ball pitcher.
In terms of OPS, Atlanta is at its worst against ground ball pitchers.
Who Starts for Atlanta?
Atlanta starts Kyle Wright.
Similar to Hudson, Wright is primarily a ground ball pitcher.
The Cards are reliable today because they are at their best against ground ball pitchers.
Whereas their OPS is .754 against fly ball pitchers, it is .801 against ground ball ones.
Best Bet: Parlay Padres RL (-1.5) at +115 & Cardinals RL (+1.5) at -130 at +280 odds with BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Team Form
When betting on baseball, it is valuable to look at how a team has been performing even though starting pitchers rotate because the entire team can be affected in unison by the same rhythm.
While Seattle might therefore seem reliable because it has been winning doing a good job of winning games lately, one has to pay attention to its opponents.
The Mariners have faced nothing but losing teams since June 16.
They faced the Angels eight times, Oakland seven times, and Baltimore three times.
Today's game will mark a meaningful change for the Mariners in that they will finally face another winning team in San Diego.
Who Starts for Seattle?
Chris Flexen starts for Seattle. He is the team's second-least profitable pitcher.
Flexen has been particularly costly to back on the road and as an underdog.
Seattle is 2-6 and yields -3.6 units in road games in which Flexen has started.
Moreover, the Mariners are 2-9 and yield -5.7 units in games in Flexen starts where they are listed as the underdog.
This year, Flexen is the subpar pitcher that one expects him to be.
He is striking out two batters for every one he walks.
His opposing home run rate is also poor.
Matchup Details
One reason why I dislike Flexen today is that he matches up poorly against Padre batters.
Primarily, Flexen induces fly balls.
San Diego, however, is at its best against fly-ball pitchers.
Whereas the Padres' OPS (on-base plus slugging) is .666 against ground-ball pitchers, it is .748 against fly ball ones.
Opponent History
Furthermore, Flexen's history against San Diego is terrible.
He is 0-2 with a 21.21 ERA in two career starts against the Padres.
Active Padre batters are combined 10-for-18 in their career facing Flexen.
Eric Hosmer is one Padre who is 2-for-2 lifetime against him.
Who Starts for San Diego?
The Padres start Sean Manaea tonight.
Manaea is a lefty who primarily throws three pitches: his sinker, changeup, and slider.
These three pitches combine to make up 98.9 percent of his arsenal.
He merits optimism tonight because Seattle ranks 26thin slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, July 4, 2022 at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Atlanta
Who Starts for St. Louis?
St. Louis starts Dakota Hudson.
Hudson will not try to blow heaters past opposing batters.
He doesn't throw hard.
Likewise, he won't primarily try to induce batters to chase his pitches outside the strike zone.
Instead, generally, he tries to induce batters to make weak contact with his pitches inside the strike zone.
He does some things well enough to make him a reliable pitcher.
For example, he injects a strong level of variety in his arsenal by not throwing any one pitch 40 percent or more of the time.
Primarily, Hudson throws a slider and sinker. He throws both pitches between 29 and 38 percent of the time.
He also mixes in a fastball and curveball frequently.
Moreover, he does a great job of varying the location of his pitches, as heat maps show.
Thus, Hudson makes himself unpredictable while making full use of the strike zone with many different pitches that, despite lacking spin, generally have unusual levels of vertical movement.
His worst trait is his command, but there is no correlation between games in which he walks more batters and his win-loss record in those games.
What matters for Hudson is how he matches up with opposing batters.
Hudson vs. Brave Batters
Hudson merits optimism today because he is very clearly a ground ball pitcher.
In terms of OPS, Atlanta is at its worst against ground ball pitchers.
Who Starts for Atlanta?
Atlanta starts Kyle Wright.
Similar to Hudson, Wright is primarily a ground ball pitcher.
The Cards are reliable today because they are at their best against ground ball pitchers.
Whereas their OPS is .754 against fly ball pitchers, it is .801 against ground ball ones.
Best Bet: Parlay Padres RL (-1.5) at +115 & Cardinals RL (+1.5) at -130 at +280 odds with BetOnline
