Season win totals

Marlo

Marlo

Check out my DAD BOD
A couple teams that I'm questioning right now.

Indianapolis Colts

Their season win total is set at 8.5. I can see them starting out 5-2, in the first 7. In there final 9 games, I can see them going 7-2. I like what this team did in the offseason. I think they added some quality players. I think Bradshaw, Brown, and Ballard is a good line up of backs. I don't think this team goes 12-4, but, for some reason this 8.5 number is interesting. Their division is bad, I think Houston regresses, Jax is horrendous....I don't think Tennessee makes a big jump over last year.

Minnesota Vikings.

Their season win total is set at 7.5. Ceiling I think they can go 11-5, bottom, 6-10. I honestly think, there is a very small window on each side of this argument. They improved in all areas of weakness except for QB. The entire defensive line is in a contract year. ADAP, will not duplicate what he did last year, it just can't happen. Schedule is fucking brutal, and every division game will be a battle.

Kansas City

Their season win total is set at 7.5. I think this lives and dies with Alex Smith. Fat Andy over Romeo is such a huge coaching change. I know Alex Smith looked great last week, I saw Charles was carted off yesterday, but I haven't read anything more about it. They should lose both games to Denver, but SD and Oakland games are winnable. 1-3 against the NFC East is a win. 2-2 against the AFC North

I've taken a position on the Washington Redskins, St. Louis Rams, Dallas Cowboys, and Cleveland Browns.
 
KC will make the biggest jump, I've been eyeing Minny as well. I'd play KC over if I had to choose, I think they sneak into the playoffs this year.
 
I do not like the Colts this season. Almost always after a season filled with statistical luck there is a regression to the mean. I think they will get close to the number, but a repeat of last season is highly unlikely. My book is at 7.5 so I would take the under on yours in a second.

I am a Chiefs fan, but I am extremely confident in at least an 8-8 season which would give you the win. Teams they are better than right now that they play: Jax, Cleve, Oak X2, SD X2, Philly, Buffalo, Tennessee. They won't win all 9 but will certainly win the majority. Plus the Cowboys and Giants at home, Texans and Colts at home as well.
 
On nfl radio on Sirius/xm they love the chiefs. Gil Brandt is a big supporter. He's a pretty smart guy. But man it's a big jump from last year to 500
 
wiseplayer said:
The biggest degenerate I know is all over KC. Ill be on season total under.
Click to expand...

great logic there. other ppl in the thread give legit reasons why the team will be good, but you are taking the under just bc a degenerate friend likes the over?

i think they win 9 total. also, staying away from the colts. they are so interesting bc stats say they should be worse but they got better on D and the make or break factor will be Luck, the player not the concept
 
would play the entire AFC West under outside Denver

it's going to be garbage with the other 3

KC is getting this sleeper hype that is insane, they are like the 49ers pre Harbaugh who were everyone's trendy pick and just flat out didn't put it together, there are examples almost every year, and it's very rare (last year with Seattle is 1) that it turns out right

they are certainly improved from last year (defense should be a lot better), although and I posted this in another thread, Cassel=Smith

BP9pqHbCAAAJ5LQ.jpg:large


that is not a sss, that's a very large sample size

they finished 2-14 with a negative 214 point differential, they weren't unlucky, they were the worst team statistically in football

to have a realistic shot at 8-8 they need to be 220ish + points better next season, that's a huge gap

NFC East will be tough for them, and the AFC South won't be a pushover either

best case for them I see

3-3 in division (Raiders/Chargers are worse but I could see them losing 1 to each, or one to 1 of them and 2 to Denver)
1-3 vs NFC East
2-2 for AFC South
means they need to go 2-0 vs Cleveland and @ Buffalo

they can certainly win 8 games, but my guess is they are still a year away and 6-10 is more likely

Chargers u7.5 I like a lot better though, and Raiders may win more pre-season games than regular season games

worst division in football
 
D-Woww said:
great logic there. other ppl in the thread give legit reasons why the team will be good, but you are taking the under just bc a degenerate friend likes the over?

i think they win 9 total. also, staying away from the colts. they are so interesting bc stats say they should be worse but they got better on D and the make or break factor will be Luck, the player not the concept
Click to expand...

Easy Pal. I was joking. I still don't see KC being a 9 win however. Alex Smith is not a QB I'd be jumping up and down about. KC 6-10 season would be a significant improvement from last season. They better get it early because 3 of the last 4 games are on the road and the 1 home game is vs the Colts. I see 5-11.
 
Not high on the colts at all. Don't think they will be catching anyone off guard this season. Like the dolphins to surprise.

and you could use the contrarian argument for the chiefs but the fact is that Andy Reid is going to bring accountability to that locker room. No more half assing it. Have no idea if he will have more faith in the ground game than he did in Philly though.
 
guaranteeed said:
would play the entire AFC West under outside Denver

it's going to be garbage with the other 3

KC is getting this sleeper hype that is insane, they are like the 49ers pre Harbaugh who were everyone's trendy pick and just flat out didn't put it together, there are examples almost every year, and it's very rare (last year with Seattle is 1) that it turns out right

they are certainly improved from last year (defense should be a lot better), although and I posted this in another thread, Cassel=Smith

BP9pqHbCAAAJ5LQ.jpg:large


that is not a sss, that's a very large sample size

they finished 2-14 with a negative 214 point differential, they weren't unlucky, they were the worst team statistically in football

to have a realistic shot at 8-8 they need to be 220ish + points better next season, that's a huge gap

NFC East will be tough for them, and the AFC South won't be a pushover either

best case for them I see

3-3 in division (Raiders/Chargers are worse but I could see them losing 1 to each, or one to 1 of them and 2 to Denver)
1-3 vs NFC East
2-2 for AFC South
means they need to go 2-0 vs Cleveland and @ Buffalo

they can certainly win 8 games, but my guess is they are still a year away and 6-10 is more likely

Chargers u7.5 I like a lot better though, and Raiders may win more pre-season games than regular season games

worst division in football
Click to expand...


Great post and info
 
I'll admit I'm biased w/ regards to Smith but he is not the same QB the last two years as he was with revolving door HC's, OC's and offensive philosophy his first 5 years. I'm not saying he's the next Tom Brady but we all saw what he could do with a coach that put him in position to succeed, I think Andy Reid fits that description.

KC is not an easy place to play either if their fans actually care and show up. I don't know how any KC fans could even go to games the last few years but when that stadium is loud and rocking it's as big a HFA as there is in the NFL. Over or nothing for me on KC but will most likely be nothing.

Agree on Colts regression this year FWIW.
 
Marlo said:
A couple teams that I'm questioning right now.

Indianapolis Colts

Their season win total is set at 8.5. I can see them starting out 5-2, in the first 7. In there final 9 games, I can see them going 7-2. I like what this team did in the offseason. I think they added some quality players. I think Bradshaw, Brown, and Ballard is a good line up of backs. I don't think this team goes 12-4, but, for some reason this 8.5 number is interesting. Their division is bad, I think Houston regresses, Jax is horrendous....I don't think Tennessee makes a big jump over last year.

Minnesota Vikings.

Their season win total is set at 7.5. Ceiling I think they can go 11-5, bottom, 6-10. I honestly think, there is a very small window on each side of this argument. They improved in all areas of weakness except for QB. The entire defensive line is in a contract year. ADAP, will not duplicate what he did last year, it just can't happen. Schedule is fucking brutal, and every division game will be a battle.

Kansas City

Their season win total is set at 7.5. I think this lives and dies with Alex Smith. Fat Andy over Romeo is such a huge coaching change. I know Alex Smith looked great last week, I saw Charles was carted off yesterday, but I haven't read anything more about it. They should lose both games to Denver, but SD and Oakland games are winnable. 1-3 against the NFC East is a win. 2-2 against the AFC North

I've taken a position on the Washington Redskins, St. Louis Rams, Dallas Cowboys, and Cleveland Browns.
Click to expand...


Welcome back Marlo, good to see ya. Here's my thoughts on your post.

Colts. By just about every NFL metric the Colts were supposed to be at best a 8-8 team last year and greatly overachieved. They won several very close games which needed comebacks. Lucks numbers upon first glance may not be great but if you consider what he was playing with talent wise as well as being a rookie in a new system it's pretty amazing. There in lies the question. The Colts could regress to the norm and that would leave them around 8 wins if they are lucky or Andrew Luck could take huge strides forward and again drive this team to 10 wins or more. I guess this one comes down to personal preference. I do see luck making big strides in year two, limiting his turnovers and improving on his TDs. The problem is that the Colts defense is just a liability. They aren't very good at all IMO. This team is going to be a great OVER the total betting team this year IMO as they will score a bunch and give up a bunch. I'd lean under here if I had to pick one.

Id love to hear your thoughts on why you think the Texans regress?

Vikings. Is this the 3 win team from 2011 or the 10 win team from last year? My guess is somewhere in between. AP can't match last years numbers and even if he does they still need Ponder to make huge strides. He lost his best WR and I realize he played most of last year without him but Ponder just didn't look good last year to me. I've been in Ponders camp since he was drafted but I really feel like I've seen enough from him to see that I don't think he is ever going to be a big playmaker at the position. Defensively they took a huge step backwards last year and I'm not sure they addressed their issues in the offseason. 7.5 is a tough number for me here, I'd probably not touch it but again I'd lean under. The Pack is the Pack, the Lions will be much improved and the Bears are still tough.

The Chiefs. The team has a lot of talent from top to bottom and have been right on the verge of breaking out for like 3 years now. Will Smith and Andy get them over the hump? That remains to be seen. My question is this. Will anybody be able to get as much out of Alex Smith as Jim Harbaugh was able to? Let be honest, Andy is no Harbaugh. Smith is a HUGE upgrade at QB however. I think this team beats up on the Raiders twice and the Chargers twice but I don't think they beat the donks even once. I also gotta disagree a bit with the comp stats that teeed posted between Smith and Cassell. That's tough to compare because only in the last two years has Alex Smith gotten it so to speak. In fact, Smith reminds me a bit of when the Raiders picked up Rich Gannon. Maybe he isn't as talented as Gannon but we haven't seen Smith in a scheme like that yet either. My problem with the Chiefs is that like the Colts and also the Dolphins, they are probably the most talked about teams by "the experts" and I'm certain that's built into the number we are getting. For that reason alone the under is worth a look.
 
guaranteeed said:
would play the entire AFC West under outside Denver

it's going to be garbage with the other 3

KC is getting this sleeper hype that is insane, they are like the 49ers pre Harbaugh who were everyone's trendy pick and just flat out didn't put it together, there are examples almost every year, and it's very rare (last year with Seattle is 1) that it turns out right

they are certainly improved from last year (defense should be a lot better), although and I posted this in another thread, Cassel=Smith

BP9pqHbCAAAJ5LQ.jpg:large


that is not a sss, that's a very large sample size

they finished 2-14 with a negative 214 point differential, they weren't unlucky, they were the worst team statistically in football

to have a realistic shot at 8-8 they need to be 220ish + points better next season, that's a huge gap

NFC East will be tough for them, and the AFC South won't be a pushover either

best case for them I see

3-3 in division (Raiders/Chargers are worse but I could see them losing 1 to each, or one to 1 of them and 2 to Denver)
1-3 vs NFC East
2-2 for AFC South
means they need to go 2-0 vs Cleveland and @ Buffalo

they can certainly win 8 games, but my guess is they are still a year away and 6-10 is more likely

Chargers u7.5 I like a lot better though, and Raiders may win more pre-season games than regular season games

worst division in football
Click to expand...


Alex Smith- 4 HC, 8 OCs, 7 QB coaches

And those statistics mean absolutely nothing without knowing the context of the teams, the schemes, and when the yards were gained. That's why we have advanced metrics now. And those show over the last few seasons, there is very little that is similar between Smith and Cassel. If anyone truly believes Smith is the same guy he was in 2005-2009, by all means, take the Chiefs under. I'm a Chiefs fan through and through, but that doesn't cross over into my capping or my money management. This team at it's core with a new QB and HC is at worst a .500 team. At worst.
 
this is now his 5th HC, 9th OC, and 8th QB coach isn't it? so shouldn't it take him a year to settle if that's the argument?

and if you want to go by advanced metrics

ranked by DYAR among QBS

2009 Smith 31, Cassel 44
2010 Smith 33, Cassel 14
2011 Smith 13, Cassel 41
2012 Smith 15, Cassel 36

so on the assumption that Smith has improved, whereas Cassel has regressed

Smith improved under Harbaugh (generally regarded as one of the best coaches in the league) and under a better team QB is generally going to have an easier time and pick up better advanced stats when the defense has to play the run and the pass, and with all of that in his favor he is an AVERAGE QB

Cassel was playing from behind all the time, teams knew he had to pass
 
I don't want to ruin this win totals thread with a side debate, but you proved my point with the stats and you could go further with DVOA and QBR to further solidify it. And last I checked, Andy Reid has done well with playing to his QBs strengths over the years. Put a wager on the under, it's fine. I root with heart, but wager with my brain. The schedule is favorable and the team is loaded. Sure, an injury or two could derail it all like any other team. I am just fairly confident they Chiefs will win at least 8 games. I don't expect Raider fans to agree with me.
 
the stats didn't prove anything conclusive, they were a small sample size and when the sample size is that small you want to limit the variables, which in this case is impossible because of the talent difference, style difference, and coaching differences of the two teams

you could put Aaron Rodgers on the Chiefs team of last year and Alex Smith's (on the 49ers) DVOA is likely better because of all those other factors

2 summers ago would it have been said Cassel>Smith?

we disagree on the Chiefs and that's fine, but statistically nothing was proven
 
Alex Smith is not as bad as he was at the beginning of his career with the coaching carousel, and won't be as good as he was under one of the best coaches in the league

on the other hand, Matt Cassel's stats in 2008 in NE, and 2010 in KC, with the two best teams he played for prove that with a decent team he can be an average QB in the league as well just like Alex Smith the last two seasons in SF...
 
I understand your viewpoint. Where we differ is I see Smith's last two seasons as anything but average. That contributes to my level of confidence also. I do think he will repeat the success he had in SF. What I have seen in camp is not the Andy Reid we have seen the last few seasons. I just see (and many do unfortunately, as I much prefer being under the radar) this being "that team" that has the big turnaround this season. Regardless, let's both have a profitable season. Cheers.
 
spanishshark said:
Played Miami Over 8 -110. No way this team goes under 9 this year. I predict 10-6. Or so I hope.
Click to expand...


I think they will have problems with a consistent run game, and Tannehill is a huge ? to me. Bills got better... I could see the Fins going 1-4 to start the year
 
I agree with the posts and the truth is KC and INDY are both too hard to find an edge on IMO to bet a season total for them. However I think there is great value in the numbers for San Diego and Oakland as expressed above. these two teams will have a tough time with their schedules it almost looks too easy
 
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