Season win totals

Joe Public

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
So I finally did the schedules for the year.

I can't say I really felt great about it. Not so much like I wasn't informed. I only read 1.5 season previews this year. The Sporting News' and the scouts views from SI. For the most part I feel like I am somewhat up to date.

But I still didn't think I had a really good read on some teams.

A couple of interesting things did jump out at me.

I have three teams in the AFC North winning 10 or more games.

One of those teams is not the Cleveland Browns.

That's ridiculous to me, but that's what the schedule looks like.

As far as season plays, I didn't take as many as I did last year. In part because my numbers were just about the same as the books save a couple, but also because I admittedly played too many totals last year, and with all those QBs going down it sort of sent a number of my plays into a tizzy.

For this season, it's pretty simple (all numbers from the Greek):

Atlanta under 6.5
Carolina under 9
KC under 7
Jax under 9
SF over 8
Washington under 7.5

I laid off Baltimore and Cincy over 9 because of the juice. Pittsburgh at 9 is plus-money, which I like, but they have a new coach, a new center, and a new system. That worries me. I could be way off there so I'll stay off.

St. Louis seems like free money over 7.5, but the truth is, I have basically all three of the good teams in that division going 9-7, so I'm going to hold off laying -155 there as well.

Six of 'em seem like enough for me.
 
I will be amazed if Atlanta wins 2 games lol.

Good eye on the KC under, should struggle, its going to be a run game i presume, one knock on either of the two RB's, Chiefs are cooked!

Good Luck on the season JP
 
Thanks, TM.

The only ones I picked this year, juice permitting, were ones where I thought the line was a solid two games off.

That's why none of the really good teams made it. I do think the Eagles sneak past their total, same with the Broncos, Dallas, and a couple of others, but the margin for error seemed to close.

But both Jax and Carolina really jumped out at me seeing as how they have to get to 10 to beat me.
 
Why are people so down on Atlanta this year? The offense can only go up with out Vick IMO. I fully expect them to win week 1 but have no idea on total wins
 
I love every play but ATL

May sound silly but a team with a solid defense, a good running game and a very good offensive line. This is Blue Sky's first time since oregon behind a even average line. He looked solid too me late in preseason. I think 7 wins will be simple for them.

errything else looks great though Joe
 
Thanks, guys.

Here's the thing about the Atlanta O-line.

They're completely changing their blocking scheme this year. They're going from zone blocking to straight up power running. That's great, but the problem with that is they're not built for it. Zone blocking works best with smaller, quicker linemen so they can pull and move laterally. That's what they have now, they're all hovering around 300, most of them less than that.

I see them getting mauled. This is also a team that has every excuse to quit this year, lay down and build for the future. I think they take it.

Last, let's look at that schedule of theirs.

They need seven wins to hit this.

In their division they can very likely split with Carolina and TB. That's two. They will not beat NO.

So now they need five wins.

They get Houston at home, assuming Schaub doesn't go nuts and exact some revenge, that's a win so now we're up to three.

Their other home games are against: NYG, Indy, SF, and Seattle.

There's one win in there, at best, probably less, but let's give them one for fun.

Now we're at four.

They then need three more wins from the following road games:

@ Minny
@ Jax
@ St. Louis
@ Arizona
@ Tennessee

Minny's defense wants you to pass the ball and it's not as if the Vikings are unfamiliar with Joey Harrington. They also need to find a way not to get run over by that big O-line. I don't see it, I don't see Atlanta winning this game.

Next, Joey Harrington vs. the Jacksonville defense the week before Atlanta's first divisional game, their first home game of the season, against Carolina.

How can you like that spot? Even if you do, how can you like an undersized offensive line against Jax's defense?

They can beat Tenny in Nashville, I suppose, but I think that game will be close.

Let's not even pretend they'll stay within 10 at St. Louis, and they travel to Arizona a week after coming off two straight divisional games, the second one on the road in Tampa.

Another bad spot.

Basically I see at best two wins in those road games and I think I'm being generous.

I see this as a five win team, tops.

But I have been wrong before.
 
Joe: I like the KC under and will probably play it myself. I have already played Arizona under 7.5 wins for what I think will be the 3rd yr in a row. They've won 5,5, and 6 games the last 3 yrs and I see no reason they win more than 7 this yr.:cheers:
 
If I ever play a part in getting Grapes out for a post, I consider it a great day.

Good to see you.

I may join you on that one. I have them at six for the year, so if the number's good, you may get some company.

=)
 
One addition to this:

NO to win the NFC South -105 (Greek)

This number makes no sense to me. Which probably means something weird will happen and I'll lose. But, seriously, -105?
 
Have you seen their defense?

Have you seen the front 4 of carolina? They have 3 probowlers.
 
Have you seen the front 4 of carolina? They have 3 probowlers.

Right, and I'd like to like them. But if I'm not mistaken two of their starting D-linemen are still coming back of huge injuries. And I'm less concerned with them than their absolute lack of a secondary and no offensive support.

Teams will double up Steve Smith all year and Delholme, who I do like, is on the downside of his career.

At some point this season I see this team considering making the switch to Carr.

That could screw me, actually, as backups killed a couple of my total plays last year. But as this team stands right now, I think they've got problems, and I think they'll be coached by someone else next season.
 
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Im glad you didn't take my comments the wrong way. I am in no way saying ur wrong. Anyways I think where we disagree is Week 1. Vikings will be absolutely horrible on offense this year IMO and the defense will suffer. Atlanta will score on them enough to win that game. Obviously that doesn't mean they will win 8 games but I think everyone is buying into the fact that Vick is gone and Atlanta will struggle. I strongly disagree. Great info on the blocking scheme
 
No worries, CB. Also, I totally agree on Minny's offense this year.

That said, they SHOULD have a decent O-line. So for the first few weeks anyway until teams just give up on respecting the pass completely, I think the Vikings should be able to move the ball just a bit.

It's their defense that will keep them in games, and that defense vs. Joey Harrington I think will be enough.

On Atlanta, I'm down on them only because I think they've been given a total excuse to blow this year off and play for next season. And I don't think they're together enough as a team not to take that excuse.

They'll try for a few weeks, but if things start to go south on them, I think they're going to cash it in.

Which will suck for guys like Joe Horn, but I just don't see it happening for them this year.
 
Thanks, Cream & Ghost. Good luck to you guys, too.

You, on the other hand, N&D, ooooh, jealous, so jealous.

=)
 
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