Season Win Total: Washington

[Gaius.T]

Sits @ 71.5 at Pinnacle.

They won 73 last year.
In 2006 they won 71.

I am not really familiar with them, but they are moving into a new stadium, with people coming to see the stadium, as a new stadium usually helps a team in its first season.

Anyone with more knowledge on the Nationals as a team?

Help is appreciated!
:shake:

 

[$$$$inmywallett]

As a native of the DC area, I know one of the biggest issues with playing in the old stadium, RFK, was that the ball didn't carry, so homeruns were hard to come by. Also, being so close to sea level, the air is thick and humid. You would see a good amount of extra bases though. I haven't seen the dimensions of the new stadium yet, but not really sure this has an impact on total wins or not. I would say that if you must bet it, you would choose the over, but I would lay off since who knows how well the fans will represent to show a home backing.

 

[JPicks]

Pulled from an online blog of some sort:


In this day and age, one thing in baseball is even rarer than an unassisted triple play - a year where only one new stadium is opening. But in 2008, only the Nationals will have a new home. While the Nats hardly have any stud players (Ryan Zimmerman will make many fantasy rosters), it’s useful to know how the ballpark will play for the sake of estimating 2008’s numbers.

The dimensions: 336-L, 377-LC, 403-C, 370-RC, 335-R

Comparing those dimensions to other ballparks is a good way to see how they’ll play out.

Overall, the most similar ballpark to the new Nationals Park is Busch Stadium. There are only slight differences in the dimensions: Busch is two feet shorter in left center, three feet shorter in center and five feet deeper in right center. The corners are identical. Busch Stadium is a pitcher’s park, with a park factor of 0.933 and a home run factor of 0.717.

Arguably, power alleys are more important than corners and dead center. In terms of power alleys, Nationals Park is most similar to Great American Ballpark (which is two feet deeper in left center) and US Cellular Field (which is two feet deeper in right center). Great American is one of the game’s top hitter’s parks, with a park factor of 1.034 and a home run factor of 1.418, the highest in baseball. US Cellular is also a hitter’s park. It has a park factor of 1.084 and a home run factor of 1.220.

Nationals Park has shallow power alleys and relatively deep corners. That’s going to play out very well for the offense. It will mean a lot of home runs to the alleys and a lot of extra base hits down the lines. Great news for Nationals hitters, bad news for their pitchers.

 

[Schrute]

Nationals bullpen is going to be horrific this year

 

[Gaius.T]

sounds like its going to be a hitters park, but we'll find out when they play the games.

The thing I meant with the new ballpark was along the lines of the field of dreams quote 'if you build it they will come'.

I think it should definitely be more of a home ball park this year as every road team will play there for the first time.

And it creates more of a buzz around the team and gets attention of the media and the people. It's obviously THE storyline to make this the US opening game of the season on national TV.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good thread

 

[Blue_Chip]

From one of my favorite MLB cappers:
Nats Over 71.5 -110
Comment: Believe it or not, I feel that the Nationals are better than 3 to 5 teams in the NL on paper, yet are being priced as if they were only better than two. The other good news is the notion that they are a team that plays better than they do on paper. They are a team that constantly gets swept under the rug as they lack any big name sluggers or anything remotely close to a potent line. However, that is something I have not overlooked (valuing them as the second worst lineup in the NL). What the market has not discounted aside from their gritty play not customary for a cellar team is their above average bullpen and pitching staff that should improve off of last year. 73 wins was their total last year. In my opinion, they will at least match that this year.

 

[reNew Orleans]

The Nats can make a trade to improve the pen, but they have some decent starting pitching. Only room for improvement from the SP, the rotation got messy last year with injuries/etc.

 

[RetroVK]

team can finish 18 games under .500 and you still win the over side of the bet. Just too hard to bet this under imo. the new stadium really benefits the nats as well beyond just mroe fans in the stands. They will be playing in the stadium every other day and the opponents will be trying to hit in new surroundings with new background. Think htere is a hidden advantage there for nats at home. Baseball is just a hard sport to expect a team to lose THAT many games with any confidence. its over or nothing in my mind.

 

[Terpman92]

I think Over is a good bet here gents! I see them winning between 70-75 games. Mediocre team, however they should hit over 71.5 IMO!

 

[Gaius.T]

I have no idea why it did and in such a big way, but the line moved in our favor on the Over. It's now @ even money and was at around -115 or -120 yesterday.

So now, I like it because of the Nats situation and the fact that you don't have to lay any juice!

 

[scdoggy]

I'd go under on this one.

There's no parking lot for this stadium, so I wouldn't put too much stock in the new park being a big draw. To get to the stadium, you'll have to ride Metrorail so after the first month or two, I'd expect to see a lot of empty seats in this park. As some have mentioned their bullpen is a shit show and I don't have faith in Acta to be able to handle adversity.

Plus once these guys start losing big time, I could almost write the articles that will be appearing in the Washington Post every day about how this city begged for a team now (media will blame the city) nobody is showing up for the games.

This gets ugly guys. If I were playing this one it would definitely be UNDER

 

[MusicCityGambler]

I think RFK was a huge edge for the Nats in all honesty. The ballpark was so big that it hid a lot of their weaknesses and neutralized their opponents, especially opponents with strong lineups like New York, Philly and Atlanta. If this park is a hitters park that edge will be gone. The Nats won 40 at RFK and only 33 on the road.

The Nats have a scrappy club and are a bitch to play so I wouldn't rule them out entirely from going over.

 

[EstreetPicks]

Great breakdown here on the effects of a new park on wins and losses. Surprisingly, it's a coin flip

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/sports/mlb/longterm/2008/pdf/New_Attitude.pdf