Seahawks vs. Rams NFL Week 18 Odds and Betting Pick
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, January 5, 2025 at 4:25 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium
The Spread
Los Angeles opened as a 3.5-point favorite for this matchup.
As of Wednesday morning, however, the Rams are five-point underdogs.
This drastic shift in the odds reflects head coach Sean McVay's decision to focus on resting his starters for upcoming postseason action.
McVay's Plan
In this game, we should not expect to see any starters for the Rams on either offense or defense.
This means no Matt Stafford, no Kyren Williams, no Cooper Kupp, and no Puka Nacua.
We saw the Rams do this last year in Week 18.
They were 5.5-point underdogs in San Francisco — although the 49ers were also resting their starters — and won by a point.
Motivation
Bettors are inclined to dismiss the Rams' chances in this week because they want to focus on and prepare for the postseason.
But when bettors think of "they," they easily conflate Los Angeles' starters and backups.
True, the starters are thinking about the postseason.
But the backups, who we'll see on Sunday, have every reason to be motivated.
This is a big audition for them. Whereas the Seahawks gain nothing by beating a bunch of backups, the Rams on Sunday will look to prove their worth by defeating a playoff-caliber team.
Effort and Focus
The Rams enter this game having held each of their last three opponents — the 49ers, Jets, and Cardinals — to fewer than ten points.
They are not relying on star power in order to limit their opponents' scoring total to such an extent.
After they gave up 42 points to Buffalo, it's not like they acquired extra talent.
Instead, defense is largely mental. Defenses play significantly better when they invest effort and focus. That is what we've seen from the Rams, and that is what we will see on Sunday.
There is no defense version of Stafford or Kupp. There is no game-changing superstar on the defense. This is to say that the Rams will be just fine personnel-wise on defense.
In fact, defenses already rely extensively on backups because they like to rotate in fresh bodies.
Backups on Sunday will simply be adopting a greater role while being coached by the same effective staff.
Expect the same bend-but-don't-break defense to maintain its level of focus and effort because the backers will want to audition themselves for the sake of their careers.
Los Angeles' Offense Is Deep
The Rams benefit on Sunday from having already spent much time without their top two wide receivers.
When Kupp and Nakua were injured, we saw other Rams' wide receivers step up.
When the Rams beat San Francisco 27-24 in Week 3, for example, Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson, and Jordan Whittington were the team's leading pass-catchers.
While Stafford played in that game, he has anyhow been in a rut.
The Rams opened as favorites in this game with Stafford and his top two pass catchers being in a rut.
Stafford has failed to reach 200 passing yards in any of his last three games.
His benching creates a negative perception for the offense's outlook on Sunday, but this negative perception is based on the existence of a better version of Stafford who wasn't in a rut.
New players can improve this current version of the low-scoring Rams who are already winning with their top offensive players in a rut by injecting a fresh look that the opposing defense won't have much film on with which to prepare themselves. In this vein, the Rams would derive added benefit from switching play-callers, which they might do and which would create an element of surprise for the defense.
At quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo will play with his teammates for the first time this season.
He is certainly a capable player, having accumulated four playoff wins in his career, which is the same number that Stafford has.
Expect a competent and motivated effort from him, from Los Angeles' deep wide receiving crew, and at running back from Blake Corum who is a talented second-round draft pick.
Seattle's Decisive Tendency
My point is that we will see a competent Los Angeles team that is more than capable of being productive on offense and effective on defense. The Rams have been winning low-scoring games, and they have the personnel and coaching — obviously, the backups are familiar with their team's schemes — to win another such game on Sunday.
They can beat a playoff-caliber team, but the Seahawks won't even play like a playoff-caliber team.
The Seahawks have a terrible tendency to play down to the level of their opponent.
If you look at the games they should win, games against the worst teams, then you'll see what I mean.
Most recently, for example, they barely edged a Bears team that has been emaciated by the firing of its head coach and that had lost to each of its three previous opponents by over two touchdowns.
Likewise, they required a fourth-quarter touchdown to sneak past the lowly Jets.
In Week 2, the pathetic Patriots took them to overtime.
They also lost at home to the Giants. They gave up 29 points to what is one of the lowest-ranking offenses, and their own one-dimensional offense, which is debilitated by a terrible interior offensive line that makes life very difficult for their running backs, failed to keep pace.
Low-talent teams repeatedly exceed expectations when they face the Seahawks.
So, bettors are down on the Rams on Sunday because they will play with diminished talent, but the very fact that they are playing backups gives them an added advantage.
Takeaway
We will see a competent and motivated Rams team that has the personnel to upset a playoff-caliber team. But we won't even see Seattle play like a playoff-caliber team because it constantly plays down to its opponents.
The Seahawks know that they will play against backups, and they will be the worse for it, whereas those backups on the Rams will take advantage of their opportunity to audition themselves.
Best Bet: Rams +5.5 at -105 with Bet365
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, January 5, 2025 at 4:25 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium
The Spread
Los Angeles opened as a 3.5-point favorite for this matchup.
As of Wednesday morning, however, the Rams are five-point underdogs.
This drastic shift in the odds reflects head coach Sean McVay's decision to focus on resting his starters for upcoming postseason action.
McVay's Plan
In this game, we should not expect to see any starters for the Rams on either offense or defense.
This means no Matt Stafford, no Kyren Williams, no Cooper Kupp, and no Puka Nacua.
We saw the Rams do this last year in Week 18.
They were 5.5-point underdogs in San Francisco — although the 49ers were also resting their starters — and won by a point.
Motivation
Bettors are inclined to dismiss the Rams' chances in this week because they want to focus on and prepare for the postseason.
But when bettors think of "they," they easily conflate Los Angeles' starters and backups.
True, the starters are thinking about the postseason.
But the backups, who we'll see on Sunday, have every reason to be motivated.
This is a big audition for them. Whereas the Seahawks gain nothing by beating a bunch of backups, the Rams on Sunday will look to prove their worth by defeating a playoff-caliber team.
Effort and Focus
The Rams enter this game having held each of their last three opponents — the 49ers, Jets, and Cardinals — to fewer than ten points.
They are not relying on star power in order to limit their opponents' scoring total to such an extent.
After they gave up 42 points to Buffalo, it's not like they acquired extra talent.
Instead, defense is largely mental. Defenses play significantly better when they invest effort and focus. That is what we've seen from the Rams, and that is what we will see on Sunday.
There is no defense version of Stafford or Kupp. There is no game-changing superstar on the defense. This is to say that the Rams will be just fine personnel-wise on defense.
In fact, defenses already rely extensively on backups because they like to rotate in fresh bodies.
Backups on Sunday will simply be adopting a greater role while being coached by the same effective staff.
Expect the same bend-but-don't-break defense to maintain its level of focus and effort because the backers will want to audition themselves for the sake of their careers.
Los Angeles' Offense Is Deep
The Rams benefit on Sunday from having already spent much time without their top two wide receivers.
When Kupp and Nakua were injured, we saw other Rams' wide receivers step up.
When the Rams beat San Francisco 27-24 in Week 3, for example, Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson, and Jordan Whittington were the team's leading pass-catchers.
While Stafford played in that game, he has anyhow been in a rut.
The Rams opened as favorites in this game with Stafford and his top two pass catchers being in a rut.
Stafford has failed to reach 200 passing yards in any of his last three games.
His benching creates a negative perception for the offense's outlook on Sunday, but this negative perception is based on the existence of a better version of Stafford who wasn't in a rut.
New players can improve this current version of the low-scoring Rams who are already winning with their top offensive players in a rut by injecting a fresh look that the opposing defense won't have much film on with which to prepare themselves. In this vein, the Rams would derive added benefit from switching play-callers, which they might do and which would create an element of surprise for the defense.
At quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo will play with his teammates for the first time this season.
He is certainly a capable player, having accumulated four playoff wins in his career, which is the same number that Stafford has.
Expect a competent and motivated effort from him, from Los Angeles' deep wide receiving crew, and at running back from Blake Corum who is a talented second-round draft pick.
Seattle's Decisive Tendency
My point is that we will see a competent Los Angeles team that is more than capable of being productive on offense and effective on defense. The Rams have been winning low-scoring games, and they have the personnel and coaching — obviously, the backups are familiar with their team's schemes — to win another such game on Sunday.
They can beat a playoff-caliber team, but the Seahawks won't even play like a playoff-caliber team.
The Seahawks have a terrible tendency to play down to the level of their opponent.
If you look at the games they should win, games against the worst teams, then you'll see what I mean.
Most recently, for example, they barely edged a Bears team that has been emaciated by the firing of its head coach and that had lost to each of its three previous opponents by over two touchdowns.
Likewise, they required a fourth-quarter touchdown to sneak past the lowly Jets.
In Week 2, the pathetic Patriots took them to overtime.
They also lost at home to the Giants. They gave up 29 points to what is one of the lowest-ranking offenses, and their own one-dimensional offense, which is debilitated by a terrible interior offensive line that makes life very difficult for their running backs, failed to keep pace.
Low-talent teams repeatedly exceed expectations when they face the Seahawks.
So, bettors are down on the Rams on Sunday because they will play with diminished talent, but the very fact that they are playing backups gives them an added advantage.
Takeaway
We will see a competent and motivated Rams team that has the personnel to upset a playoff-caliber team. But we won't even see Seattle play like a playoff-caliber team because it constantly plays down to its opponents.
The Seahawks know that they will play against backups, and they will be the worse for it, whereas those backups on the Rams will take advantage of their opportunity to audition themselves.
Best Bet: Rams +5.5 at -105 with Bet365
