SDQL Week 8

[JROCK1966]

16-7 last week including 3 ML dogs.

38-33-1 Overall.

Georgia State @ Arkansas State: Medoubts there will be a bounceback for Arky State this Thursday. They're still trying to get over getting it handed to them by Appy State and Georgia State has an opportunity to take advantage. Pic 1 shows a 1-2 ATS record for home teams in this situation but when I add in the negative turnover margin for Ark State in pic 2, the reocrds become 0-1 & 0-1. Check out the line and total for the lone loss in pic 2. How close are they to this game?? I'm of the opinion it's not a mere coincidence and I'm willing to roll the dice. Pick: Georgia State +14 & +425 ML

 

[JROCK1966]

Colorado State @ Boise State: Initial comparisons produce some great-looking mojo for the home team here in pic 1. When I add the total defense comparison in pic 2, I can get rid of the lone ATS loss from pic 1. I've lost my last two wagers backing these guys but I think I'm going to get that back in this game. Boise State rolls.. Pick: Boise State -23.5

 

[JROCK1966]

Alabama @ Tennessee: comparisons of previous game margins and total offense gives a 6-0 ATS record for the home team. Pick: Tennessee +29

PS - bonus pick Morgan St. +4

 

[JROCK1966]

Wake Forest @ FSU: comparison of previous game margins are strong with this game due to the fact Wake lost so bad last time out. The week off should have given time for FSU to shrug off that tough loss down in Miami and I think they get back in the win column with a solid game. Pick: FSU -10

 

[JROCK1966]

USC @ Utah: comparisons of previous game margins and total offense and home teams turnover margin does not produce good news for the home team. 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS and all the 3 favored teams lost ATS in pic 1. The thing that sticks out at me is I added the opponent's TO margin and no results came back meaning all the results in pic 1 came from an opponent a negative turnover margin. USC's is positive. It begs the question if a teamwith a negative TO margin can have this success what does that say about a team with a positive TO margin? Lastly, when I add total defense comparison in pic 2 it's also 0-1 ATS. Pick: USC +7

 

[JROCK1966]

Vandy @ Kentucky: two stats that stick out to me about this game is Ky's ability to rush an average of over 200ypg and also the huge mismatch in total defense between these two clubs. Cats have also had a week to heal up and prepare a bit more. Stoops is all about playing defense and running the ball to keep the opposing offense off the field and they should have no problem running against Vandy who ranks 13th in the SEC in run defense. The game from the query that matches this one the most IMO certainly not the one with the 80 pt total.The other one finished 35-6 and had a total about 9 pts more than this game. I can see Ky winning 26-7 or thereabouts. Pick: Kentucky -11.5 & Under 48.5

 

[JROCK1966]

Memphis @ Missouri: Rutt-Roh Raggy! The Tigers are in trouble! The Missouri Tigers that is.....My normal comparisons give the home team 2-5 SU & ATS records in pic 1. When I add in total defense we find that the home team in this situation has NEVER won and is 0-4 SU in SDQL database history. Picks: Memphis +10 & +310ML

 

[JROCK1966]

Tulsa @ Arkansas: Lots of results in these queries because of the small margins both these teams lost by last week. But I can't help but be somewhat surprised the home teams have not done well in this situation. Pic 1 gives 4-12 SU and 5-9-1 records for the home team. In order to whittle this down some more I had to cut down the previous game margins to 10pt comparisons each for the home and away teams. It came back 0-2 sU and 1-1 ATS. The lone win was from the dog in pic 2. Can Tulsa win this game?? Why not?? Pick: Tulsa +7.5 & +240ML

 

[JROCK1966]

Auburn @ Ole Miss: Man I feel like I'm really pushing the envelope on upsets but these queries keep generating these results. I put in my normal comparisons and it came back as a 4-0 SU record for the home team. Since all the results are favs, no need to worry about an ATS record. Take the dog. Ole Miss should carry the momentum from last week's last minute win right on into this week. Their positive turnover margin should play huge in this game as well. Pick: Ole Miss +3.5 & +155ML

 

[JROCK1966]

"smashclock:

 

[mrpickem]

Good luck JRock

here's one for you
sparty vs harbaugh 10-0 ats

 

[B.A.R.]

Good stuff, thx for posting as always.

 

[JROCK1966]

I’ve got a bad feeling about this week. I normally come across some counter-intuitive shit like massive stats in favor of one team but results speak otherwise. But I haven’t found any this week. I’m thinking the lines have tightened up considerably.

Maybe I just need some beer.

:beerchugger::beerbong2:

 

[booksbestfriend]

Anything sticking out in the AF/Unlv game?

 

[JROCK1966]

Anything sticking out in the AF/Unlv game?

Friday night home conference dogs baby!!

I have UNLV in one one of my ML Parlays.

I ran my queries and UNLV is the play but was worried about the QB not playing for UNLV but played em anyway.

 

[JROCK1966]

Anything sticking out in the AF/Unlv game?

Overall, home teams in this situation are 10-6 SU with just previous game margins and total O. Pic 1. In pic 2, I isolated the dogs from pic 1 and they're 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS. 50% SU is not bad at all when backing a home dog esp. on Friday night.

 

[JROCK1966]

Post #52 in Prov's Thread....

Arizona @ UCLA: Upon 1st glance, Arizona has absolutely not much of a shot at UCLA today. First pic of just previous game margins say home teams are 25-1-1 SU in this situation. However, when I add in a simple total offense comparison of Arizona's - UCLA's >0 we get pic 2 which says the home team was 0-1 SU and 0-1 ATS. So, in every single game from pic 1, the home team had a better total offense than the visiting team except for the lone loss. This is flat-out amazing IMHO!!! Not only is Zona's offense better than UCLA's, but it's better by almost 100ypg...actually about 90ypg average. I do not even have to bother researching turnovers or total defense, This is what you call finding a needle in a f*cking haystack!! UCLA will still be celebrating their 1st win of the season when this game starts tonight. I'm all over Zona for the large! Pick: Arizona +10 & +310ML

 

[DeadEyeDuckie]

The only thing scaring me about Arizona is no Khalil Tate. Wouldn’t that hurt the Angle because the majority of the stats created to make that situation had Tate involved?

 

[JROCK1966]

The only thing scaring me about Arizona is no Khalil Tate. Wouldn’t that hurt the Angle because the majority of the stats created to make that situation had Tate involved?

I did not check injuries. Yeah could have an effect.

 

[JROCK1966]

I’ve got a bad feeling about this week. I normally come across some counter-intuitive shit like massive stats in favor of one team but results speak otherwise. But I haven’t found any this week. I’m thinking the lines have tightened up considerably.

Maybe I just need some beer.

:beerchugger::beerbong2:

4-13 this week. Got crushed.

:moneyoutofhand::hurt: