SDQL Week 7

[JROCK1966]

9-9-1 last week. Considering I had sprinkled some ML attempts in my last thread, I'm ok with that record from last week but I'd still like to do better.

22-26-1 Overall.

Georgia Southern @ Texas State: This one was a tough one to get hits on in my queries. I had to reduce last week's margin to 10 for Ga. Southern to get any. It turns out it's a 3-1 SU record and 2-2 ATS however one of those was a fav that lost ATS. That might as well bring the ATS record to 3-1. My read here is is that, since Ga Southern won last week by much more than 10pts, they should be a public fav here and they are. Last time I checked they were up around 75%. Both these teams rank similarly defensively around the 70-77th mark. My thoughts are what does it mean when I can hardly get hits on a query and, when I do after decreasing the margin, it comes out to 3-1 SU? And this is a dog at home? And one of those samples in the query results was a 20pt dog that won straight up? Texas State is the play no doubt! They are way undervalued here and don't be surprised if they win outright. Pick: Texas State +17.5

 

[JROCK1966]

Texas Tech @ TCU: One of my favorite parameters to use is turnovers and a key stat in this game is the large negative turnover margin TCU possesses. The last thing you want to do against a very good offense is to give them extra possessions. The query result below speaks for itself. Pick: Texas Tech +8.5 & +255ML

 

[JROCK1966]

USF @ Tulsa: Friday Night Home Conference Dogs Baby!!! Not so fast my friends.....this is not a good one. Tulsa simply turns it over to much and USF does not. Not only does USF not turn it over, they produce to's on D. 1st pic below already has the home team a 1-7 SU record based on margins and total offense. In pic 2, we see the total offense added and the only result that pops up where the home team has a better defense than the road team it's a big loss by 3 times the line. Then, in pic 3, we compare the margins and to margin alone and the records are 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS and the only ones that one ATS were huge spreads. Normally I like me some home doggies on a Friday night but not this time. USF wins by 3 TD's. Pick: USF -7

 

[JROCK1966]

Air Force @ San Diego State: Pic 1 shows a 4-4 SU and 4-4 ATS record for teams at home and the margins and offenses queried. Also of interest is the 1-7 O/U record. Pic 2 I add total defense comparison. Pic 3 I add the home teams offense and turnover margin comparison. All show that this is a good situation for the Under. Pick: Under 43.5

 

[JROCK1966]

Arizona @ Utah: The short of it is I think Utah is in trouble. A recurring theme I've learned since beginning my SDQL exploits is favorites coming back home off a big road win. I saw it again last week with UAB winning at La Tech. Home teams are rarely at their best in this situation. In pic 1, margins and total offense comparisons generate a 4-7 SU and 5-6 ATS record for the home team. When I add total defense in pics 2, 3 & 4 I add a difference of >0, >50, and >100ypg average respectively. The SU records go 3-4, 2-2, and 0-1 SU. I don't expect this Utah defense will be at their best Friday night and Arizona will take this game down to the wire. Pick: Arizona +13.5

 

[Vapster]

9-9-1 last week. Considering I had sprinkled some ML attempts in my last thread, I'm ok with that record from last week but I'd still like to do better.

22-26-1 Overall.

Georgia Southern @ Texas State: This one was a tough one to get hits on in my queries. I had to reduce last week's margin to 10 for Ga. Southern to get any. It turns out it's a 3-1 SU record and 2-2 ATS however one of those was a fav that lost ATS. That might as well bring the ATS record to 3-1. My read here is is that, since Ga Southern won last week by much more than 10pts, they should be a public fav here and they are. Last time I checked they were up around 75%. Both these teams rank similarly defensively around the 70-77th mark. My thoughts are what does it mean when I can hardly get hits on a query and, when I do after decreasing the margin, it comes out to 3-1 SU? And this is a dog at home? And one of those samples in the query results was a 20pt dog that won straight up? Texas State is the play no doubt! They are way undervalued here and don't be surprised if they win outright. Pick: Texas State +17.5

View attachment 35177

Almost Won Outright! Good Stuff JROCK!

 

[2daBank]

Good stuff J. Gl this week

 

[JROCK1966]

Ole Miss @ Arkansas: This is a re-post from the one I posted in ProV's thread. I gotta admit, this one was easy but I hope it wasn't "too easy" if you know what I mean. No "home" team, in SDQL database history at neutral site, has lost with these previous game margin parameters. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS. Pick: Arkansas +7 & +230ML

 

[JROCK1966]

This is another re-post from the one I posted in ProV's thread. Last week, when I posted my favorite trend, I posted it on a Monday and neglected to run it again the rest of the week. Unbeknownst to me, two more teams popped up in the query later in the week. They were Northwestern and New Mexico and, of course, they both won. We won with MTSU and lost with Missouri last week. I'm still trying to figure this damn SDQL out sometimes but I believe the late adds could be due to either the lines being offered late or maybe some game results being added to the SDQL database late. Anyway, this week we do have a few hits coming up. Since the beginning of 2017, road dogs of lines less than 10 pts, worse total defense, and both fav & dog have negative turnover margins are currently 17-11 SU and 23-5 ATS. It is active on UCLA, UL-Monroe, NM State, and Nebraska this Saturday. Picks: UCLA +7 & +210ML, UL-Monroe +7 & +220ML, NM State +7.5 & +245ML, and Nebraska +4.5 & +170ML

 

[JROCK1966]

Florida @ Vandy: Some might think Vandy could be a live home doggie considering the Gators tough win last week. But the Gators' D simply has too many ball hawks and the to margin comparison is wide in this matchup. Home teams with these previous game margins, total offenses, and turnover comparisons are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in SDQL database history. Pick: Florida -7

 

[2daBank]

Anything stick out on the gators/vandy total? I grabbed some under 51 earlier in week. Seems like points be tough to come by for vandy and only way they stay in it with a strong defensive effort.

 

[JROCK1966]

Anything stick out on the gators/vandy total? I grabbed some under 51 earlier in week. Seems like points be tough to come by for vandy and only way they stay in it with a strong defensive effort.

Totals are difficult for me. Well, honestly, gambling is difficult for me as well ha-ha but totals much more so than sides. The only times I contemplate backing a total is when I see some crazy good trends like in post #4. There’s a large mismatch in TO margin in the Vandy / FL game so I would lean over because in a mismatch like this you might see a pick six or a fumble close to the end zone which results in easy score etc., etc. BOL on your play tho!!

 

[Rusty Trombone]

Good stuff brother! Any other dogs on your radar?

 

[JROCK1966]

Georgia @ LSU: LSU should be giving it their best tomorrow and it will be difficult for Georgia to cover this spread on the road. Previous game margins, total offense, and home team comparisons give the home team a nice 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS record. But LSU ain't the only team that has a nice TO margin and when I add Georgia's in pic 2 the records goto 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS. Georgia is even better at TO margin than LSU which I added in pic 3 and we ended up a 0-1 SU but a 1-0 ATS cover. Methinks LSU can win this game if Burrow can avoid the turnovers but I think it's best to simply take the pts. Pick: LSU +7.5

 

[JROCK1966]

Texas A&M @ USCjr: Looks like the Aggies are the play tomorrow. Comparing game margins, total offenses, and turnovers, gives me 1-5 SU & ATS records. Adding the better turover margin for USC actually gives me a worse record for the home team at 0-3 SU & ATS. So the slightly better turnover margin for the Gamecocks gives a worse result? Another counter-intuitive opportunity if you ask me! Pick: Texas A&M -2.5

 

[JROCK1966]

West Virginia @ Iowa State: Pic 1 shows a little mojo for the home team at 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS but 2 of those ATS losses were favs. When I add the full turnover margin we whittle the be match of the results to this game and it's a SU & ATS win for the home team. Neers on upset watch tomrrow perhaps? Pick: Iowa State +6.5

 

[2daBank]

Totals are difficult for me. Well, honestly, gambling is difficult for me as well ha-ha but totals much more so than sides. The only times I contemplate backing a total is when I see some crazy good trends like in post #4. There’s a large mismatch in TO margin in the Vandy / FL game so I would lean over because in a mismatch like this you might see a pick six or a fumble close to the end zone which results in easy score etc., etc. BOL on your play tho!!

Yea that certainly possible, really only way I saw much offense tho so felt at 51 there was room for some of that and under still cashing. I’m the opposite, I actually prefer totals to sides in most sports, go figure. Lol.

 

[ProV1Colt]

I like a lot of what your sheets are spitting out!

 

[JROCK1966]

I like a lot of what your sheets are spitting out!

Thanks ProV sorry I couldn't get into it more this week. Life is happening unfortunately. But I got a few hours this am and I'll see if I can come up with a couple more.

Last night went 1-3 for a 4-3 record so far...one of those was a ML though so I'm still in the green for the week....hope I can stay there!! LOL!!

 

[JROCK1966]

ULM @ Coastal: SU & ATS records are 3-3 with comparisons of previous game margins, total offense, and home team turnover margin. See pic 1. Recrdos goto 0-1 for each when I add the total defense & road team turnover margin comparisons, See Pic 2. Also the Under looks great in this game! These queries support the ULM plays in post #9. Adding a Pick: Under 66.5

 

[JROCK1966]

NM State @ UL-Laf: Pic 1 has my normal comparisons and is 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS. When total defense is added in pic 2, it mostly matches the lone loss in pic 1. Over looks good too! These queries support the NM State plays in post #9. Over looks good too! NM State and UL-Monroe are the best two plays from post #9. Adding a Pick: Over 67