SDQL Week 11

[JROCK1966]

5-2 last week.

54-53-1 Overall.

Kent State @ Buffalo: Ordinarily I might be on the dog here as pic 1 shows SU & ATS records of 4-3 & 0-4-3 for the home team. However, the results of my queries all have pretty good matchups in them between the two teams. None of them involve games where the teams had a win differentials of greater than 3. See pic 2. Buffalo has 6 more wins than the visiting team in this matchup however so I would call that an outlier (in comparison to the other query results). In addition, Kent State seems to have to have their ups and downs. They played competitive @ Ole Miss then got trounced by Ball St. Played competitive vs. Ohio then got trounced by Miami (OH). They've been competitive 2 weeks in a row though so I'm thinking they it's prolly a tall order to be competitive 3 weeks in a row. I'm backing the home team to cover. Pick: Buffalo -11.5 1st Half & -20 FG.

 

[TahoeLegend]

I did the same. Wish I had seen your post before the game I might have made a max bet.

 

[Rusty Trombone]

What underdogs are you looking at this week?

 

[JROCK1966]

What underdogs are you looking at this week?

Both dogs tonight....Miami & Toledo are good plays. Was just getting ready to post my opinions....

 

[JROCK1966]

Ohio @ Miami(OH): I think Ohio stands a great chance to take a loss tonight. Comparisons of these two team's previous game margins and total offense result in a 5-0 ATS and 2-3 SU records for the home team. See pic 1. Check out those scores though...the lowest double digit dogs won outright. But here is what I like so much about backing the home dog here. See pics 2 & 3...wen I enter in the home team's positive turnover margin (pic 2) and better total defense (pic 3) it comes back with zero results. This means that all the teams in the results of pic 1 had both negative turnover margins and worse total defenses than their opponents!! And they still were 5-0 ATS and won two games outright!! What we have here tonight (and the line certainly bears this out as it's a much lower line for the home dog) is a team with lots of mojo from my query results and they 1) hold onto the ball and 2) play better defense than their opponent. I can't ask for much more than that! Pick: Miami(OH) +5 & +165 ML

 

[JROCK1966]

Toledo @ N. Illinois: Sometimes I find a needle in a haystack and I'm of the opinion, when I do find them, that there is more to it than mere coincidence. Pic 1 shows my normal comparisons of previous game margins, total offense, and turnover margin and I find it interesting one of the SU losses has the same total (the needle) as tonight's game. But then we have comparisons of contrasting statistics....pic 2 shows what happens when one team has a dominant total offense but bad defense (Toledo) plays another team with dominant defense but bad offense (N. Ill.). The team with the better offense wins out in this case....Pick: Toledo +4 & +160ML

 

[JROCK1966]

Wake Forest @ NC State: I think NC State might roll Wake. We have some nice looking numbers for normal comparisons of previous game margins, turnover margins, and total offenses. See pic 1. Records are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. Still, I wanted to find out what happened in the lone ATS loss and it looks like Pitt did not have a total defense average less than 400ypg like NC State does. That's what pic 2 results represent. And, with only 4 days rest for each team's defense, look for both offenses to put up some numbers but NC State might score at will Thursday night. Picks: NC State -17 & Over 69

 

[consilience]

Great work on tonight's games. I lean the same way...

 

[JROCK1966]

Not 1 but 2 blocked punts returned for TDs against me tonight??? How often does that happen?

 

[Rusty Trombone]

Any saturday dogs lookin good?

 

[JROCK1966]

Wake Forest @ NC State: I think NC State might roll Wake. We have some nice looking numbers for normal comparisons of previous game margins, turnover margins, and total offenses. See pic 1. Records are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. Still, I wanted to find out what happened in the lone ATS loss and it looks like Pitt did not have a total defense average less than 400ypg like NC State does. That's what pic 2 results represent. And, with only 4 days rest for each team's defense, look for both offenses to put up some numbers but NC State might score at will Thursday night. Picks: NC State -17 & Over 69

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Wow...no where close tonight. Damn what a nice dog this one would have been to hit on ML.

 

[JROCK1966]

Any saturday dogs lookin good?

I like Kansas fwiw.

 

[JROCK1966]

Pick: Okie / Okie State Over 79.5

 

[JROCK1966]

Pick: Iowa -10.5....home teams are 5-0 ATS in this situation.