SDQL Thread Week 14

JROCK1966

JROCK1966

Big Blue Nation
Conference dogs, in game number 13 (conference championships), who lost the previous matchup in the same season, and line is less than or equal to 5pts are 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS historically.....this trend is active on Georgia and Stanford this weekend.


conf1.jpg
 
Conference favs, in game number 13 (conference championships), who won the previous matchup in the same season, are 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS historically.....this trend is active on USC, Auburn, Oklahoma, and Florida Atlantic this weekend.


conf2.jpg
 
Conference favs with a line less than or equal to 5pts, in game number 13 (conference championships), who won the previous matchup in the same season, are 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS historically.....this trend is active on USC & Auburn this weekend.

conf3.jpg
 
Conference favs with a line greater than or equal to 5pts, in game number 13 (conference championships), who won the previous matchup in the same season, are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS historically.....this trend is active on Oklahoma & Florida Atlantic this weekend.

conf4.jpg
 
If anyone is wondering why the records in posts in 3 & 4 do not add up correctly to the records in post 2, it's because the line in the 2010 Auburn/S. Carolina game was 5pts and therefore the game is showing up in both posts 3 & 4.
 
After a 1 week hiatus, it's back!! Dogs, of less than 10pts, season is 2017 & 2016, worse QB efficiency than opponent, and both dog & favorite have negative turnover margins are 32-6 ATS (84.2%) and 26-12 SU (68.4%) over the past 2 years. This trend is active on Idaho this week. Good luck on what you decide Gents!

trend1.jpg
trend2.jpg

 
Dogs, of less than 5pts, season is 2017 & 2016, worse total defense than opponent, and both dog & favorite have negative turnover margins (after last week's win by Vanderbilt) are an incredible 14-1 ATS (93.3%) and 12-3 SU (80%) over the past 2 years. This trend is active, again, on Idaho this week. Good luck on what you decide Gents!

trend3.jpg
 
Last edited:
JRock, can you post the query for the 32-6 angle again where we can see the whole thing?

I used the following query:

AD and 1 <= line <=10 and season >= 2016 and (((8.4 * tA(passing yards)) + (330 * tA(passing touchdowns)) - (200 * tA(interceptions thrown)) + (100 * tA(completions))) / passes) < (((8.4 * otA(passing yards)) + (330 * otA(passing touchdowns)) - (200 * otA(interceptions thrown)) + (100 * otA(completions))) / otA(passes)) and (tA(fumbles lost) + tA(interceptions)) > (tA(o:fumbles lost) + tA(o:interceptions)) and (oA(fumbles lost) + oA(interceptions)) > (oA(o:fumbles lost) + oA(o:interceptions))

I got 28-10 ATS for 2016 and 2017, instead of 32-6, and Idaho did not show up as a play.

What did I do wrong?

Thanks.
 
M.W. said:
JRock, can you post the query for the 32-6 angle again where we can see the whole thing?

I used the following query:

AD and 1 <= line <=10 and season >= 2016 and (((8.4 * tA(passing yards)) + (330 * tA(passing touchdowns)) - (200 * tA(interceptions thrown)) + (100 * tA(completions))) / passes) < (((8.4 * otA(passing yards)) + (330 * otA(passing touchdowns)) - (200 * otA(interceptions thrown)) + (100 * otA(completions))) / otA(passes)) and (tA(fumbles lost) + tA(interceptions)) > (tA(o:fumbles lost) + tA(o:interceptions)) and (oA(fumbles lost) + oA(interceptions)) > (oA(o:fumbles lost) + oA(o:interceptions))

I got 28-10 ATS for 2016 and 2017, instead of 32-6, and Idaho did not show up as a play.

What did I do wrong?

Thanks.
Click to expand...
Try copying and pasting this one:

AD and line>=1 and line<=10 and (((8.4 * tA(passing yards)) + (330 * tA(passing touchdowns)) - (200 * tA(interceptions thrown)) + (100 * tA(completions))) / tA(passes)) < (((8.4 * oA(passing yards)) + (330 * oA(passing touchdowns)) - (200 * oA(interceptions thrown)) + (100 * oA(completions))) / oA(passes)) and (tA(fumbles lost)+tA(interceptions)) > (tA(o:fumbles lost)+tA(o:interceptions)) and (oA(fumbles lost)+oA(interceptions)) > (oA(o:fumbles lost)+oA(o:interceptions)) and season>=2016 and season <=2017
 
Thanks. I see my mistake now:

AD and 1 <= line <=10 and season >= 2016 and (((8.4 * tA(passing yards)) + (330 * tA(passing touchdowns)) - (200 * tA(interceptions thrown)) + (100 * tA(completions))) / passes) < (((8.4 * otA(passing yards)) + (330 * otA(passing touchdowns)) - (200 * otA(interceptions thrown)) + (100 * otA(completions))) / otA(passes)) and (tA(fumbles lost) + tA(interceptions)) > (tA(o:fumbles lost) + tA(o:interceptions)) and (oA(fumbles lost) + oA(interceptions)) > (oA(o:fumbles lost) + oA(o:interceptions))
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Anything on Memphis vs UCF? :)
Click to expand...
Good catch! I was using game 13 in my queries and UCF has only played 11 games so they did not show up. I switched it by substituting week 14 in for game 13....here are the results. Conference favs with in week 14 (conference championships), who won the previous matchup in the same season, are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS historically.....this trend is active on USC, Auburn, UCF, Toledo, Oklahoma & Florida Atlantic this weekend.

trend4.jpg
 
For comparison sake, and in reference to post 17, I entered week 13 and generated no results. So then I tried week 15 and generated these results. The records became 5-3 SU and 1-6-1 ATS. It is not active on any teams this year, actually hasn't been active since 2014, but it does seem to indicate the possible extra week of rest/practice before a championship game used to help the dog moreso than the favorite. I thought it was interesting.....

trend5.jpg
 
JROCK1966 said:
Good catch! I was using game 13 in my queries and UCF has only played 11 games so they did not show up. I switched it by substituting week 14 in for game 13....
Click to expand...
You can simply use "game type = CH" instead of a week number or game number and that gets all conference championship games including those from before the schedule went from 11 to 12 games.
 
Jrock, I was wondering if you could fix the whole week 13 vs week 14 deal? Much appreciated. So far I have in my article the 6-2. thanks for the help!
 
M.W. said:
You can simply use "game type = CH" instead of a week number or game number and that gets all conference championship games including those from before the schedule went from 11 to 12 games.
Click to expand...
Ya learn something every day!! Nice suggestion on using game type M.W....here y'all go: These are favorites that won the previous matchup in the same season...ATS is 10-9-1 historically....15-5 SU. Let's see if I can whittle these numbers down some....

trend6.jpg
trend7.jpg
 
New Mexico State knocked out backup Idaho QB Mason Petrino in the first quarter last week (separated shoulder). Vandals will be starting 3rd string Fr Colton Richardson this week. He's a big kid 6-4" 230 lbs, Petrino was 5'11" 173 and may just be here because he's coaches son, so really Richardson might be better, just raw with no experience (HS Idaho O POY according to USA Today). New Mexico State got ELEVEN sacks last week! Not great with awareness or throwing the ball way apparently!
 
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