Scarf's Fuck It Let's Gamble Week 1 NFL Picks

scarf31

scarf31

CTG Moderator
Staff member
Same introduction as my CFB thread from last week...

Howdy boys and girls...

Have no business starting a thread other than being a loudmouth, drinking, degen SOB who works too much and loves this site and this sport.

Just gonna roll out plays based on feel, gut and blood alcohol level.

GL on the season gang...this sport specifically is a motherfucker with some of the lines and I think by far the hardest to win at. That being said...fuck it. Let's get this shit started...

2T 7Pt Teaser - Patriots -3 / Over 41 KC/NE (1.2/1)
C. Hogan Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (1.35/1)
 
Couple thoughts...I don't give a rat's ass if it's a new season or not...the Walrus is still the Walrus and 12 is still 12. I cannot see any way (barring major injury) that New England loses the game tonight and a FG and 41 aren't crazy numbers to hit for a Pats victory assuming they're good for at least 28.

You're going to notice I don't love too many traditional game lines and totals and lean more toward the unconventional options of team totals for FG and halves, player props and 2nd half plays. Think with the way that football has evolved with the rules that there is significantly more value in these "under the radar, not getting so much attention" plays.

Brady has lost Edelman for the season as we all know. 12 is probably the GOAT (as a Jets fan it kills me to say that but its true). Dude knows the offense flows its absolute smoothest when he's got "that guy" to go to as his slot dependable bail out on 3rd and 8 where they always seem to get 9. It was Welker, then Edelman..and now I think while Amendola is the guy who probably fits the role next, Brady just hasn't gotten the sync with him that he has with Hogan, whom I think he much more prefers. I would also advocate the over receptions on Hogan, but the juice I saw was -160 and that's too rich for my blood. Pats 34-17

GL tonight kids...
 
gl man, I'll pull for both...got Hogan on my fantasy bench which means if he goes off...no one else has him
 
Sometimes in life you have to see something to believe it...I still don't believe what I just watched. Brady was high on so many throws it was shocking. Add in the fact that he's the single best QB in the HISTORY of the league at the QB sneak...and on 2 separate occasions they hand off in I Formation on 4th and inches? Makes me wonder if 12 is 100% or not.

Nothing but props to the KC backers...long season and I'm sure more surprises will lie ahead.

But something definitely ain't right in Mudville...onto Sunday kids.
 
That QB sneak with Giselle coming down on him about concussions, doubt we see it at all this season

He knows where he stands, that game was odd all over. Get em back this weekend...tried 3 props and lost all ffs
 
scarf31 said:
Sometimes in life you have to see something to believe it...I still don't believe what I just watched. Brady was high on so many throws it was shocking. Add in the fact that he's the single best QB in the HISTORY of the league at the QB sneak...and on 2 separate occasions they hand off in I Formation on 4th and inches? Makes me wonder if 12 is 100% or not.

Nothing but props to the KC backers...long season and I'm sure more surprises will lie ahead.

But something definitely ain't right in Mudville...onto Sunday kids.
Click to expand...

As 100% as one can be for a 40 year old NFL qb!!

Dude been freaking amazing for a long long time but nobody beats time and that wall usually comes quick fast and in a hurry with really no signs till it gets hit out of nowhere for aging qbs.. way too early to know if that what happening but I think we almost have to expect it coming for Brady sooner than later..
 
Onto Sunday after Thursday's disasterous 0-3 nearly 5 unit beatdown...but we march on.

I've said this before in that I think TT's and 2nd halves and player props have a lot of hidden value. Some of these NFL props pay crazy for some not-ridiculous outputs, so went with a bunch of "create your own" props today. GL gang.

Raiders TT O23.5 (-115) (1.15/1)
1H NYJ/Buf U21 (-125) (1.25/1)
2T 5P Tsr Falcons -2 / Texans Pick (+107) (1/1.07)

J Maclin O99.5 Receiving Yards (+957) (.5/4.79)
J Jones O159.5 Receiving Yards (+411) (.5/2.06)
M Crabtree O126.5 Receiving Yards (+1006) (.5/5.03)
AJ Green O144.5 Receiving Yards (+295) (.5/1.48)
T Gurley O139.5 Rushing Yards (+3000) (.5/15)
E Manning O348.5 Passing Yards (+401) (.5/2.01)
 
ScopeY said:
Where can you play there props? I love a lot of those too
Click to expand...

Scope... these are all self created via the "Bet Builder" feature on Dimes and/or Heritage. I was fucking around last night at 2am watching the end of the late CFB games and almost shit at some of these.
 
Having fun with these props even though I sucked balls week 1...on we go.

Vikings -3 (2.4/2)
Cook O136.5 Rush Yds (.5/15)

GL gang.
 
Grrrrr....if Dalvin doesn't get tackled on that last run the prop hits. Still insane value in some of these and I'm having fun with them.

The nightcap...

Broncos -3 (+105) (2/2.1)
CJ Anderson O24.5 Carries (.5/5.35)
 
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