Scarf 2019 NFL Week 3

scarf31

scarf31

CTG Moderator
Staff member
Preseason Record (9-6) (+7.01 Units)
Regular Season Record (18-8-2) (+7.65 Units)

Overall Record (27-14-2) (+14.66 Units)

Week 3 Plays

Lions +7.5 (-125) (1.25/1) W
Broncos +9.5 (-125) (1.25/1) L
Patriots -23 (-104) (1.04/1) L
Patriots -22.5 (-110) (2.05/1.86) L
Patriots -22 (-105) (2.1/2) L
Chiefs -4.5 (-108) (1.08/1) W
6.5 Tease Falcons +7.5/Vikings -2.5 (-130) (1.3/1) W
Panthers ML (+113) (2/2.26) W
LIVE Panthers ML (+125) (2/2.5) W

(GOY) Jets +10 (-120) (1.2/1) @ Patriots L

Not in love with this card...there are some crazy numbers out there and we still don't know who is who in this league yet...GL gang...
 
Last edited:
Nice start man., I actually really liked this card at 1st glance, never know if that a bad or good thing tho! Lol.

Donks makes a lot of sense, points be valuable in what should be another defensive type battle.
 
Patriots -23 (-104) (1.04/1)

Let this sink in...the New York Jets as of right now have 1 active quarterback on their roster, Luke Falk.

Luke Falk last week was on the practice squad. He hadn't worn a New York Jet uniform until last night.

The Patriots defense has allowed 17 points in their last 3 games including the Super Bowl...

The New York Jets have 19 points scores this season...

They have a grand total of ZERO offensive touchdowns this season.

Last year in Week 17 the Patriots won 38-3 in Foxboro. This is the exact same spot, only worse because the Patriots defense is better...and their offense is better.

I'd play this up to 31. And the only reason I'm not playing this stronger is because I hate laying numbers this high in this joke of a league.
 
Oh, and to be fair...I almost forgot...had 2 GOY winners last week so that was the good...

This is the bad...locking in Jets +10 before the season (yikes)

Not afraid to get middled...2 separate bets...will add that to the list up top in first post before doing all of the record keeping.
 
scarf31 said:
Patriots -23 (-104) (1.04/1)

Let this sink in...the New York Jets as of right now have 1 active quarterback on their roster, Luke Falk.

Luke Falk last week was on the practice squad. He hadn't worn a New York Jet uniform until last night.

The Patriots defense has allowed 17 points in their last 3 games including the Super Bowl...

The New York Jets have 19 points scores this season...

They have a grand total of ZERO offensive touchdowns this season.

Last year in Week 17 the Patriots won 38-3 in Foxboro. This is the exact same spot, only worse because the Patriots defense is better...and their offense is better.

I'd play this up to 31. And the only reason I'm not playing this stronger is because I hate laying numbers this high in this joke of a league.
Click to expand...

13-3, 33-3 & 43-0...6 pts.
 
Zeke said:
13-3, 33-3 & 43-0...6 pts.
Click to expand...

You're right, Zeke. And that being said...it is idiotic IMO to be afraid of a potential 16-0 or 15-1 team vs. a team with 1 active QB who started week 1 on the practice squad.

Adding...

Patriots -22.5 (-110) (2.05/1.86)
 
This is a different league. Either adapt to the new NFL or don't bet it. Cannot be afraid to trust what you cap...
 
Our cards are looking a lot alike. But I additionally grabbed Denver under & Houston +3.5. Trying to play numbers this year as much as I can & grabbing dogs just above the key numbers.

Not sure what book you use but if you like some "easy" money & aren't afraid to lay some juice check out the DST TD prop. The no is usually juiced around -265 to -295 but it hit on all but the Pats game last weekend. I'm trying to grab as much as I can until my book either does away with it or juices the no to -400.
 
Line dropping...I'm adding more.

Patriots -22 (-105) (2.1/2)

Luke Falk a 6th round pick on the practice squad 10 days ago is starting this game for the Jets. They have one other quarterback on the roster, David Fales, from San Jose State who was the 4th string QB in Miami last year.

The Jets I will repeat have 2 quarterbacks on their roster for this game. The 3rd and 4th string quarterbacks from last year's Miami Dolphins. Let that sink in.

They have a bottom-5 offensive line....Mosley is 99% going to be out (huge difference maker) and Jamal Adams is rumored to want to be traded, while LeVeon Bell has a banged up shoulder already, oh and did I mention they benched Trumaine Johnson just because he sucks.

As a team on offense, they have scored as many touchdowns this season as Ruth Bader Ginsburg who is 86 years old.

This is a different NFL. Patriots were still throwing in the 4th quarter vs. Miami last week. The Jets are just trying to get to the bye week to assess WTF has happened with their season.

Patriots last week had never covered a spread as high as 19 like they had vs. the hapless Dolphins. How'd that turn out?

Problem is that even if you find value with the Jets...what is the max number of points they are scoring? 10? 14? For a team with no kicker and no quarterbacks and a D coordinator who wants to blitz all day with no secondary?

GL with that...
 
Zeke said:
Our cards are looking a lot alike. But I additionally grabbed Denver under & Houston +3.5. Trying to play numbers this year as much as I can & grabbing dogs just above the key numbers.

Not sure what book you use but if you like some "easy" money & aren't afraid to lay some juice check out the DST TD prop. The no is usually juiced around -265 to -295 but it hit on all but the Pats game last weekend. I'm trying to grab as much as I can until my book either does away with it or juices the no to -400.
Click to expand...

Zeke, I've heard the FTM guys talking about these D/ST bets and I can't slam them as I think there is some value in the lines...but as a regular occurence, I'd still much rather for fun maybe parlay a few of them together and hope for the best rather than continually lay high juice....but I don't hate pars with a few of them...just not necessarily my cup of tea.
 
Jets last 2 games in New England....9 points total. Zero touchdowns.

It is a death wish to bet on this team right now.

The fear comes from laying such a huge number...but this is going to get ugly...and get ugly fast.
 
Okay, I know the weather is bad, but stop with the stupid lovefest for Baltimore bearing the 2 worst teams in the league. Shocked this fell below 6, yet alone 5...

Chiefs -4.5 (-108) (1.08/1)
 
scarf31 said:
Okay, I know the weather is bad, but stop with the stupid lovefest for Baltimore bearing the 2 worst teams in the league. Shocked this fell below 6, yet alone 5...

Chiefs -4.5 (-108) (1.08/1)
Click to expand...

This move, while not a big one across the 5 has me thinking Chefs as well. Ravens haven’t impressed me. Throw away game vs div II Dolphins and then they looked very average at home vs the Cards.

GL Scarfy. You’re killing it so far
 
Thanks,gang. Appreciate the kind words.

Not a huge teaser guy but the loss of Leonard being way too underplayed for a team with a backup QB and no kicker.

6.5 Tease Falcons +7.5/Vikings -2.5 (-130) (1.3/1)
 
I don’t think I’ve ever felt better about a losing 5-unit wager.

The Jets needed 2 non-offensive TD’s to get the cover. Including a rookie QB pick-6 and a muffed punt for a TD.

Physically fucking ill. My team sucks...and the team who never makes mistakes made 2 that cost me a bundle...lmfao.

Gambling is fun.
 
100% the right side.

and atleast this still holds true

"As a team on offense, they have scored as many touchdowns this season as Ruth Bader Ginsburg who is 86 years old."
 
Under 41 Chi/Wsh (-110) (3.3/3)

Really like this play a lot and just don’t see how Bears unleash the offense or how Keenum picks apart a Bears D that’s been solid as hell
So far. GL gang.
 
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