Saturday's UMPS/Weather thread... and other thoughts...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
A couple of days of "R and R" never hurt anyone, or so they say... Just got back late last night and have done the work for today's games, so let's get a look at 'em...

Not trying to beat the dead horse here, but once again it looks like the correlated parlay players are crushing. If you can are lucky enough to identify the right side and decide to play the corresponding total to it (or lucky enough to find the right total and decide to play the corresponding side to it)...

National League went 6-1 to them last night (leave it to the Dodgers to fuck something up)... the AL went just 3-4 (two unnecessarily big 8th innings by BAL and BOS, both leading home teams, cost 2 winners) but you still made money if you had the right sides, as none of the prices on the 3 winners was too outlandish....

Reds are in Chicago, off a 6-5 win yesterday. Arroyo has had great success against the Chubs as of late, while Hill is the first Cubs southpaw starter to throw seven innings or more and give up one hit in more than 30 years! Thus, he gets this price as a reward. Danley is an 'UNDER' ump with a big strike zone and the wind is blowing in. Those two factors have kept me off the OVER at this point but the line has moved enough now to get me slightly interested in a Reds/OVER small parlay. No Aramis today for the Chubs, either...

Thoughts?

I'll have all the 1:00 starts up shortly...

:drink:
 
Hill's ERA for the Senators is just 3.09 but he's still 0-2. This is a game where the class of NY is just too much and I expect them to play well in front of a decent weekend crowd today (tomorrow might be different with the Nor'easter coming)... so laying the 1.5 runs would be the only way I could bet this, as El Duque should be able to keep the feeble Sens from doing much damage at Shea today if he pitches as well as he did the first two starts.
 
Not a big fan of laying the 1.5 in that game where runs will be at a premium. They've been hitting that under pretty good with the cold weather up there and Shea being a pitcher's park. ABC sitting at 9u45. GL on the day.
 
You won't get this price too often on Detroit - so you know it's not one of their best four starters on the hill today, but Durbin again. Burnett will be making his second start of the year against the Tigers. On April 4, he gave up six runs in just two-plus innings of a loss to Detroit in an extrememly cold and windy road game. HOYE is a slight OVER ump from the limited research we've got on him. Pass.
 
Good shit Timmy. I actually like "OVER" there but that goes against my correlation.

Wind also blowing in from right at 14 in Chicago, which is a bit more brisk than expected...


In Cleveland, another 'bleh' day (45, overcast, wind in from right about 10 mph)... Byrd ain't pitched since the three snow delays in the Seattle game that got called after 4 2/3 eight days ago. Byrd walked three batters in the fifth, but those were the only baserunners he allowed. Danks struck out six and walked two in six innings, drawing the unlucky task of facing Johan Santana in his first big-league appearance. He didn't give up a hit in five of those innings... UNDER would look good, but you have one big problem: Larry pOncinO is the home plate UMP, and he's as 'OVER' as they come. Pass.
 
I thought about over in the Toronto game with those starters, but passed as Detroit has been anemic offensively so far.
 
Yes, it's worth another look but Burnett should be better today. And of course it will go OVER today after Durbin and Cabrera fucked me good on Monday (big bet in BAL, fell 6-2 thanks to Detroit's inability to hit that goof)...

Back with the later stuff within an hour or so, gotta work on some stuff to get to tomorrow's games and make my prices...
 
YesSir had very compelling points for OVER in Cleveland, and I decided he's got it right. Was able to go OVER 10 for even money at CRIS a minute ago, so I bit the bait.
 
I see 9 under -150 at Jazz, Timmy. Interesting.

Thanks Sparky...

Three more FOX games at 3:55 today. I get Houston/Philly here for some reason...

Hamels shut the Braves down for seven innings before his pen spit it up in extras. He's the real deal and has raw talent out the ass... Woodrow pitched five scoreless frames before yielding two runs in the sixth in Chicago in 40-degree weather, working out of several jams. Williams faced the Phillies once last year, allowing four runs over six innings and is 3-5 with a 5.04 ERA in his career against them (10 games). Reliford is a fairly neutral ump - I lean 'OVER' small but will pass.
 
El Duque yields two homers in the 6th to give Washington a 6-1 lead, and promptly plunks the pitcher. That results in his ejection from Winters, and he was none too happy about it either. Sure didn't look like he hit Hill on purpose but who knows...
 
Carrasco, 37, is a durable pitcher who has made 618 big-league appearances, but just nine starts. Carrasco stretched out in Spring Training, peaking at 90 pitches, but he has thrown only five innings in five games. Schilling held the Rangers to four hits and one run over seven innings while striking out six last time, and nobody loves pitching at Fenway more than Schilling, who posted a 9-1 record at home last year with a 3.06 ERA. In his career at Fenway, Schilling is 25-8 with a 3.99 ERA. Against the Angels, the righty is 4-1 with a 3.44 ERA in nine outings. Boston appears a bit pricey but they are the right side. Timmons a decided 'UNDER' ump, so I'll try the correlation of Red Sox/UNDER...
 
I took plus-108 on the Mariners at home today. Rangers won last night but Vicente Padilla rarely puts together two solid starts in succession. He's 1-3 with a 5.74 ERA against Seattle in his career, and he is also 10-15 with a 4.04 ERA in his career in the month of April.... I like Bautista and am willing to forgive that last outing, where he went just 4 2/3 innings, allowing 10 hits and eight runs in a 9-0 loss. He worked at least five innings in 29 of his 33 starts last year with the Snakes...
 
Horses have been up and down for me today...


In the 7:00 games... I see plenty of value on Suppan. You can be sure he is going to want to twirl a gem against his ex-mates. He'll be on regular rest after a 93-pitch outing Monday, 62 of which were strikes. But he surrendered five runs (4 ER) and eight hits in six innings in a 5-3 loss. I'm not ready to jump on the Kip Wells train yet. Sure, he's been great in his first two starts. The light-hitting Stros had just one hit in 7 IP last time. But at this price, I'm prepared to try the other side and make him do it again. Culbreth was a pitcher's ump til his 20-11 O/U last year, so not sure what to expect here. Either SOUP/O parlay or nothing for me here.
 
Not only is Bonds not gonna play, neither are the other players on those two teams. They postponed the game due to rain and will start the doubleheader tomorrow at 1:35....
 
Leaning towards FLA and OVER in Atlanta... Olsen has struggled with his control, walking nine and striking out just five in 11 innings this season. Lifetime against the Braves, Olsen is 1-2 with a 9.88 ERA in four starts. Meanwhile, Davies matched a career high with eight strikeouts and issued just three walks in Sunday's win over the Mets. But I'm not convinced. Nauert is a slight UNDER ump, so I'll sit it out for now until I see the lineups.
 
Cabrera has been solid early on but I'm still not convinced he's the real deal. Yes, he fucked me out of my $ on Monday. I think KC can get to him, though, and would not be surprised if they did. Passing for now but lean to Odalis...
 
Who is the Fatass to be a 3-to-2 favorite over anyone, especially a young solid offense that just broke Santana's win-streak at the Baggiedome? Ponson struggled to find his location at times and gave up eight runs on 10 hits in just 5 2/3 innings. Ponson will have to make less mistakes and keep the ball down in the strike zone more to be successful. He's just 6-8 with a 4.31 ERA in 22 appearances against Tampa. Jackson looked impressive for the most part Monday in Arlington. The right-hander allowed just two runs in 5 2/3 innings before leaving the game with two out in the sixth, two runners aboard, and the score tied at 2. Both runners subsequently scored and Jackson took the loss. Throughout the outing, Jackson kept his fastball in the mid 90s and he looked less rattled than he looked at times in 2006. That's another sign of experience and maturity. Randazzo is a fairly neutral ump but I'mma try to beat Ponson by myself... Tampa and OVER parlay...
 
Shocked to be able to take plus 110 or more on the A's, as I actually had Blanton as a slight fave over this bum Rasnor. Yankee pen can't bail them out (sans Rivera) so gotta side with the A's at home with the better pitcher at plus-money... DRAKE is a slight OVER guy but I'll take a stab at A's/UNDER at this price, as I think 10 is just a little too high.
 
NO opinion in the desert. Livan has struggled against COL in the past but most of those games were at Coors; he gets Cook at home this time now. Cook was opening day starter for COL but his inconsistency is tough to gauge. He was awful on Opening Day, but went nine innings and held the Padres to one run on five hits in a no-decision Sunday. He's got no record yet, and had much success at Chase Field until last year, when he went 1-1 with a 7.59 ERA in two starts. Pass.
 
You gotta start buying into Cabrera and Wells. This is not shedding the garbage that has plagued them . Not pitching like lpeople they arent. I dont mean tonite just in general....Cabrera on Monday was a huge play for me cause RH teams are gonna struggle vs this guy to scratch out 3 runs especially at Camden...not hit possibility everytime he pisses. I loved watching Kip Wells all ST and someone said it so much better then I did. After all the acclaim Duncan and LaRussa have received you think they would pencil a stiff as there #2 starter. Now Wells always ahd a good arm it was 3 years of injuries that plagued him....

BOL....even me as a yankee fan remained shocked they are favs....
 
Peavy has been great early in the season, and hasn't been afraid to go with his changeup and slider more than usual. Peavy is 6-1 with a 2.40 ERA against the Dodgers in his career... but I can't justify the Pads being the play laying a price in LA against Schmidt. The righty suffered a slight right hamstring injury covering first base, but he will start to come around soon if he stops throwing so many pitches. Rafael Furcal made the most of his return to the lineup on Friday, doubling twice and making a couple smooth plays in the field, and he only helps make this lineup more potent. Once Pierre starts getting on base, the Dodgers will be a contender... Take this price tonight. Lean to UNDER but will pass it because of the considerably low total...
 
Thanks Nut. GL the rest of the night and if both of those two bozos you talk about each pitch well tonight (I have both games on DirecTV)... then I will consider making adjustments to each one's rating...
 
Throwback: They are still planning to play, last I checked... Just a lengthy rain delay to start out.

I am looking at the radar. Atlanta is out of the threat for expected severe weather. There is one more rapidly moving cell coming into Georgia from Northeastern Alabama. Perhaps it will be by in about 80 minutes. If they want to, this game could start at about 10:05...
 
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