DERBY FAVS RARELY WIN, AND YOU SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR A PRICE - HORSES WHO HAVENT RACED AS A 2 YEAROLD HAVENT WON SINCE 1915 - PLUS FAVS RARELY WIN..
Breaking Down The Kentucky Derby Field
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<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Kentucky Derby fever has reached its critical stage and the only cure is to take two aspirins and go to bed until Sunday morning.
But why do that when Saturday's 133rd edition of America's greatest race gives us two brilliant colts in Curlin and Street Sense who will square off at Churchill Downs, not only against each other, but against long-standing ideas about where and when a horse needs to run to have him ready for 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday of his 3-year-old year.
Right behind this pair are a host of talented runners, including five trained by Todd Pletcher, the Eclipse Award-winning conditioner still looking for his first Derby score. Many of them also are bucking old trends or looking to join new ones as they complete the myriad of routes that have brought them to Louisville.
Owners have reacted predictably, lining up to ensure that Churchill Downs' cut-off at 20 starters means exactly that number will run. For those with few horses in training, being a major player on the sport's biggest stage, surrounded by an ocean of 150,000 screaming fans and with a stake in what's rightly called "the most exciting two minutes in sports" is too much to resist. And for the movers and shakers in the sport's breeding industry, the wealth connected to a Derby winner is overpowering as well.
Soon, the desire to have a legitimate "Derby horse" gives way to desiring to have a horse in the Derby, regardless of how good his chances are, with the result being the annual mayhem of the first run past the stands. So let's give kudos to the connections of Cobalt Blue, Birdbirdistheword and Xchanger, three horses that qualified to run in the Derby but will not because, in their trainers' eyes, they had no chance to win.
Here is the field by post position with each horse's lifetime record (Starts-1st-2nd-3rd), jockey and morning-line odds:
# 1. Sedgefield 8-2-3-0 Julien Leparoux 50-1
If a horse making his first-ever start on a conventional dirt track is what you seek in the Derby, look no further. Most of his graded earnings came from his Polytrack races and the rest were garnered on the grass, making his Churchill Downs prospects most inscrutable. Sire Smart Strike is also Curlin's daddy, but this colt fits better in Friday's Crown Royal Turf.
# 2. Curlin 3-3-0-0 Robby Albarado 7-2
He's the favorite despite the challenge of trying to win the Derby without a race at two, a feat last accomplished 125 years ago and the equivalent of leading a team to the NBA title in your first year out of high school. He's obviously loaded with talent, but the competition he's faced has been meager and his inside post means he'll have plenty of dirt and other horses to contend with. A tough road ahead of him but he may be the superstar that can pull it off.
# 3. Zanjero 8-2-2-3 Shaun Bridgmohan 30-1
Trainer Steve Asmussen's second starter and another with a win over the track, he had every chance to grab the Blue Grass after the rail opened wide but could not quicken sufficiently to get the job done. The son of Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Cherokee Run tries hard every time and should pass a few down the lane but even his best effort may not be good enough to hit the board.
# 4. Storm in May 13-4-2-6 Juan Leyva 30-1
The stronger half of trainer Bill Kaplan's unlikely two-horse Derby contingent, he was second in the Arkansas Derby but, in fact, was just another horse left in Curlin's wake. Second-place money was enough to get him here though he's actually more at home on the turf. He's been off the board just once in 13 starts, a stat certain to change for the negative on Saturday.
# 5. Imawildandcrazyguy 11-2-2-2 Mark Guidry 50-1
A non-threatening sixth in the Florida Derby, this gelding made the cut after two defections earlier in the week and if he wins on Saturday it will be his first stakes victory. "It's a once-in-a-lifetime thing for the owners," said Kaplan, "but this horse has tremendous cardiovascular capability and the 1 1/4-mile distance will be perfect for him." Name your price.
# 6. Cowtown Cat 7-4-0-1 Fernando Jara 20-1
Another Pletcher runner and the costliest auction purchase in the race at $1.5 million, he took the path of least resistance to Louisville — the Gotham Stakes and Illinois Derby — after showing significant improvement in Florida. Though he won both with authority and has been training well since, the suspect opposition of those races make his record look gaudier than it is. Outsider.
# 7. Street Sense 7-3-2-2 Calvin Borel 4-1
The curse of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ and doubts surrounding the effectiveness of a two-race campaign are his potential stumbling blocks, but he has impressed everyone all year and his trainer remains supremely confident in light of a week of dazzling workouts. If a horse is ever to break the BC spell, it's one returning to the scene of his 10-length romp last October. Looks hard to deny.
# 8. Hard Spun 6-5-0-0 Mario Pino 15-1
Hails from Smarty Jones country and the plan was to follow that Derby hero's route to Louisville. It changed when this son of Danzig showed a marked dislike for Oaklawn Park but he regrouped over Turfway's Polytrack and has worked sensationally — maybe too well — since arriving at Churchill. Questions aplenty about this colt whose flashy record lacks a win against a quality field.
# 9. Liquidity 7-1-2-1 David Flores 30-1
A member of the Paul Reddam trio of contenders with trainer Doug O'Neill that was reduced by one when Notional broke down, his star was bright after a solid second in the Sham Stakes followed a similar effort in the Hollywood Futurity. But subsequent dull races in New Orleans and Arcadia have dropped him off the charts. O'Neill has always spoken highly of him but he still hasn't won a race since his career debut last fall.
# 10. Teuflesberg 15-4-1-2 Stewart Elliott 30-1
He is the most experienced horse in the race with 15 starts — twice the average of the rest of the field — but was unable to hold the lead in the Blue Grass despite setting a tortoise-like pace. His speed will have him in the first flight down the backstretch but it is hard to see this non-winner of a graded race hanging on for even a small share.
# 11. Bwana Bull 9-4-2-1 Javier Castellano 50-1
Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer said the Santa Anita Derby would tell him what he needed to know about this colt but his owners evidently got a different message from his fifth-place finish. Ostensibly sent to Louisville for the Derby Trial, he was scratched after a poor draw. The good news is he ran a career-best 91 Beyer at Santa Anita; the bad news is that every other horse in the race has posted a higher number.
# 12. Nobiz Like Shobiz 6-4-1-1 Cornelio Velasquez 8-1
It was love at first sight between Barclay Tagg and this colt and, despite his wandering ways in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, things have gone pretty much as planned for the pair. Funny Cide's trainer didn't come to Louisville until Wednesday — "I don't like to go down and mess around with that crowd," he said — but his consistent colt, who responded well to the addition of blinkers in the Wood Memorial, has the style and stamina to put him in position for a victory.
# 13. Sam P. 8-2-2-1 Ramon Dominguez 20-1
He is the least-fancied of the Pletcher quintet, having never won a stakes or a two-turn race but he had a very smart win over the Churchill strip as a 2-year-old, and his California form was encouraging. That may mean more about the quality of horses he faced there than his own improvement but it wouldn't surprise if he's in the first half-dozen finishers.
# 14. Scat Daddy 8-5-1-1 Edgar Prado 10-1
Thoughts that he was a miler were put to rest at Gulfstream Park with successive nine-furlong wins, including the Florida Derby in a time identical to Barbaro's last year — though over a slower track. He's coming into the race in the best shape of any of Pletcher's starters and, as was proven in 2006, a five-week break may be just the thing to give a horse the best chance of winning. Expect to hear his name called in the last furlong.
# 15. Tiago 4-2-0-1 Mike Smith 15-1
While others flaunt tradition, trainer John Shirreffs made sure to give this half-brother to 2004 Derby winner Giacomo a start before he turned three, saying, "I know all about the history." The colt looked like a poor relation until he stormed from behind to win the Santa Anita Derby and has held his form since. A horse with his pedigree and showing such marked improvement belongs on a few superfecta tickets at worse.
# 16. Circular Quay 7-4-2-0 John Velazquez 8-1
Another powerhouse from the Pletcher barn, his spring went astray almost from the get-go. Blocked by a fallen horse in the Risen Star, he rebounded in February's Louisiana Derby but was put on ice after his progress was deemed unsatisfactory. Pletcher, who has had great success with fresh horses, opted for the uncommon strategy of training him up to the Derby. It's a tall order but what a storybook way it would be to break his Derby drought.
# 17. Stormello 9-3-1-2 Kent Desormeaux 30-1
This fiery colt looked like a coming star until he showed signs of strain following a taxing spring that saw him twice fly cross-country to run in Florida. He's had five weeks to recover, will be reunited with main man Desormeaux and may set a more sensible pace since this field is wanting for speedballs. Staying the distance could be a problem but it's easy to see him with the leaders turning for home and getting a check is definitely within reason.
# 18. Any Given Saturday 6-3-2-1 Garrett Gomez 12-1
Starting out on the Tampa Bay Downs path like Pletcher's ace Bluegrass Cat last year, this colt disappointed in the Wood. Said the trainer, "He took the worst of it being wide around the turns but he really didn't polish it off in the last sixteenth of a mile. He will have to step up a notch to get it done." The flashy colt has trained well since and, after his big performance over the track as a 2-year-old last November, still must be given a chance.
# 19. Dominican 7-3-0-2 Rafael Bejarano 20-1
Is it real or is it Polytrack? The gelding's dramatic improvement this spring normally would have fans gushing his praises but a cautious approach is warranted because everything of note has come on the all-weather. That closing burst in the Blue Grass was mighty impressive but he's been just ordinary on dirt and it takes a leap of faith to see him duplicating the feat on Saturday.
# 20. Great Hunter 9-3-4-1 Corey Nakatani 15-1
The second Reddam entry and thought to be best of all O'Neill's Derby horses this winter, he was jostled around in the stretch run of the Blue Grass — just his second race of the year — but jockey Corey Nakatani didn't bother to claim foul because, he said, "I was beat." He still has his backers but no closing punch after a snail's pace is not a harbinger of success.
The Crystal Ball
In any race, especially one as taxing as the Kentucky Derby, the question of pace is an issue and it appears that this Derby, unlike most recent ones, lacks a horse like Sinister Minister, Spanish Chestnut or Songandaprayer, one that will take everyone along at a demanding clip.
That doesn't mean the race is likely to be stolen by a front-runner, since the vast majority of contenders don't utilize that style, but that a slower pace — 1:11 versus 1:09 and change, for example — will make it hard on the deep closers, or horses who find themselves shuffled back in the pack, to catch up to the leaders.
This puts a premium on racing luck, as always, and the best way to assure luck is going your way is to employ tactical speed to stay away from the bad-luck spots on the racetrack. Horses with this commodity are Nobiz Like Shobiz, Street Sense, Scat Daddy and Any Given Saturday. Cowtown Cat and Hard Spun also may vie for position in the second flight though the latter likely will be up with Teuflesberg and Stormello at the front.
I look for Street Sense to emerge from that group and, in his first start on the ground he relished last October, to put to rest a few Derby canards in the process. Nobiz and Scat Daddy will be on my exacta box ticket and Stormello and Tiago will be used in wider exotics.
As for Curlin, it will be a wonderful thing for racing if yet another exciting, undefeated horse emerges from the Derby and advances to the Triple Crown. But the obstacles he faces seem quite a bit more formidable and, coupled with his post position, look like too much to overcome.
