CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Have to apologize in advance for this one. The Breeders' Cup is back home this weekend and that's where the "real" money is to be made, finding live longshots that go to post 15-to-1 for the first and sometimes only time in their life. Locked in most of the football earlier this week and with Louisville getting the money on Thursday, it's going to be awfully tough for me to lose in football this week (yes, I bet THAT much)...
Anyways, check out the horse plays over in that forum sometime in the morning.
Also, I am going to start a Dr. Bob IN-GAME thread every Thursday. Basically, I can monitor most of the moves as they come in and I will alert everyone so they can grab a number at a slow-moving office or with their local.... or if they like the other side, to WAIT it out until all of his clients get down.... Sorta had one this week and I saw how many views it got, so the popularity of it is unmatched; check it out next Thursday at 1:00 Eastern...
Ball State doesn't have the talent to match up with Michigan but will bite on Testy because Carr is known to not run it up on former assistants and friends, and frankly, UM doesn't have to worry about the BCS. Their offense has struggled lately but that will end against an awful Cardinal defense that has shown some signs of improvement against weaker MAC bretheren as of late.
The play: Ball plus 34 for a small play
Made Iowa a little higher but not sure if Christiansen will play as capably as he did last week, even against deflated Northwestern. Not interested in laying it with struggling (ATS) Iowa.
Not sure why everyone seems so enamored with Wake. Sure, they are the "feel-good" story of the year, blah blah blah, great coaching, play hard, good underdog - yes I KNOW. I've made tons and tons on this team dating back to when Grobe first started there. But let's take a close look at this schedule - it's got to be the absolute WEAKEST in all of America. Syracuse, Duke, at UConn, at Ole Piss, Liberty, Clemson, at N.C. State, bye, at North Carolina in the first nine weeks. Take out Clemson, the one team that beat the Deacs, and those teams have about five combined wins against I-A competition. Yes, they're competitive week in and week out but BC is just a little better physically. With a virtual 'bye' last week, the Eagles have had plenty of time to rest and get ready for this pivotal (?) ACC showdown.
THe play: Boston College -3 -120 for a small bet and -3.5 for a small bet and -4 for a small bet (bet it early, figuring it would go up... then just kept betting it once it moved against me).
Anyone with the nuts to bet on or against Michigan State after the coaching announcement just likes to gamble, unless they've got some inside info they wish to divulge, lol... For what it's worth I made MSU 2.5.
I have Pitt slightly higher than they do now but not really interested in laying it, despite the fact I think they are much better than the other side. Road trips to Tampa in November are bear traps in waiting for USF.
Kansas made the change to a new QB last week and he rallied the Jayhawks to a win over Colorado. Expect more of the same progress this week as they travel to Ames to meet a deflated Iowa State team that is missing top RB Hicks (leg) and WR Davis (lung). I've got Kansas a four-point fave here so it was nice to get them at a 'PICK' on Monday afternoon.
The play: Kansas PICK for a medium bet
Indiana and Minny are a tale of two teams going in opposite directions but I made the number about what they have it so not really interested in either side. Gophers still are a little better up front on both sides but IU knows this could be its best shot at a sixth win and accompanying bowl bid.
Not involved in Raleigh yet and prolly won't get involved because NC State is as schizophrenic as they come at home. But you usually get their 'good' side when they are catching points, regardless of locale, and GT hasn't proven reliable enough to start laying meaningful points away from Atlanta.
Dr. Bob pounded the bejeezus out of Clemson (four star play at 17) but can't say I have the same vigor. Yes, the Tigers are much better than Maryland but when do the Terps start deserving to catch more than that? The WV game was absolutely a fraud, the wrong team got the money and that line was 17. They also caught 17 against the Noles and covered last year. No other times in the Fridge Era has UM caught this many points - I would have them or no one but will pass for now.
Waited for 17.5 on Vandy but don't think I'm gonna get it. The Dores have a decent rushing QB (Nickson) that the Gators haven't seen in game competition and UF is in a UGA/SC sammich and will certainly be salivating about welcoming the ol' ball coach back to the Swamp next week. Vandy has competed with everyone this season for the most part and is very well coached - they also should have won in Gainesville last fall and will not be intimidated by this team.
The play: Vandy plus 17 for a medium bet. If it goes to 17.5 I will bet some more.
Dr. Bob bet Illinois way down but I expect this line to climb again before they run out on the field. The Illini have been competitive at times but the quarterback just runs around and chucks it half the time and that won't cut it against this bunch, which should get ahead early and eventually over the number. But it's not my style to lay 20-plus on the road most of the time. I made it 26. Will consider laying 23.5 for a small bet but pass for now.
Ended up with a play on Central Mishitgan. The Chips are still perfect ATS this season and even though I'll give kudos to Temple for its win last week, it was a smoke-and-mirrors deal. They still suck. Made it much higher.
The play: Central -18 for a medium bet.
Not interested in trying to lay DD's with Navy on the road sans their QB but have to wonder how much gas Duke's got left in the tank. Would have them or no one (made it 8) but not involved at this juncture. If I see 13, I will give it serious thought.
Ohio has a MAC East title well within range at this point, and I made money on both they AND Eastern last week - cannot see good reason to go out and start laying a touchdown on the road to a suddenly resurgent EMU defense. If I see 7, I will be involved for a small play on the 'dog'.
Made Kent a little higher against UB but saw some big shops using '14' earlier this week and figured I'd wait for it to get inside 2 touchdowns, which never happened after Dr. Bob got involved.
Georgia isn't very good (not the Georgia you're used to) but they are still eons better than Kentucky. The Cats did get a nice win last time but they are not on any kind of level to compete with this kind consistently.
The play: Jorja minus 6 for a medium bet.
Like I said earlier, BG outplayed Temple despite losing, and I respect Brandon enough to think he will get a maximum effort this week out of his guys against an Akron team that is similarly headed towards nowhere. This game is only more than a touchdown because of the Temple result.
The play: Burning Green plus 8.5 for a small bet.
Bammer in no state to lay DD's to anyone at this point but hard-trying Messy State just ain't very good. Big game for Croom and his kids will play hard but I still make Bammer higher. Pass.
Shocking line of the week for me was seeing Ayunnem catching points against Oklahoma. I made the Aggies a favorite and while I respect what the OU defense has done since Oregon and the RB's efforts last week - I still think A&M is a solid 8-1 bunch worthy of their rating. Now they get OU in a night home game at raucous Kyle Field. Big volume game for Walters, as he took Oklahoma earlier in the week before Dr. Bob took the points. Now Billy's bet OU back up to 3 again. Unfortunately, I overbet this one so it looks like I am stuck with Ayunnem.
The plays: Aggies plus 3 -120 for a small bet. Aggies plus 3 for a medium bet.
Without Bell, the Bears figure to struggle mightily in Lubbock, and perhaps the rest of the way, but can't trust a fragile Tech team that continues to come up short in big games and will no doubt be down this time out.
Shocked to see Notre Dame going down, as if they continue to win and impress, they are playing for their BCS lives. Dr. Bob is on the Tar Heels but how can anyone endorse a team that has trouble throwing the ball and has a sieve-like defense? Will consider laying 24 if it pops up again.
No opinion on all about the TCU/Vegas game. The Frogs with little motivation to truck hapless Vegas and I'm no fan of laying large tariffs to experienced (re: 21-and-older) players traveling to Sin City for the first time.
The Gold Sheet said it best when talking about Hawaii this week: "We might as well be comparing Salma Hayek and Roseanne Barr when talking about these WAC entries, as Hawaii's two 68-point explosions in three games are each more than the 55 US has scored in its first seven games combined!"
The play: Hawaii -26 for a medium bet.
Cold weather sure not to suit SD STate, which lost to a I-AA last week while Wyoming was throttled in Fort Worth. Expect tough Cowboy defense to impose its will on the other side but not interested in laying 3 scores or more with semi-pedestrian Wyoming offense.
Dr. Bob is on Western and I made it a little higher than they opened it but would be more interested in Miami O than the host favorite here. Just a little too high in my mind.
Southern Cal in an ideal spot to break their spread woes. They've not covered in any of their last five and are coming off a rare regular season SU loss. Now they play against perhaps the worst team in I-A right now, as Stanford has lost QB Edwards for the year and bears no semblance of an offense that has much of a chance to score this week. USC will be good for 40-plus and they get back on the gas.
The play: Southern Cal -28 for a medium bet and -27.5 for a small bet.
Not sure if I can trust Washington at this point, as back-to-back overtime losses would certainly damage anyone's mentality. Could be down to third-string QB after Bonnell got pummelled by ASU last week. But Oregon appears headed for a minor bowl at best now that they've absorbed a couple of losses in the league. Now that this has skyrocketed, I will probably be on the 'dog', provided they have any sort of stability at QB and I can take 17.
The play: Washington plus 17 for a small bet (if the line shows up)
I know several smart people are on LSU and UT's quarterback situation is the key to this one. If Ainge is well enough to go, I like the hosts catching the points. They've outscored opponents 68-13 in their last 5 games and Russell is 5-6 SU with 9 INTs and just seven scores against the last 11 SEC bowl teams he's faced. Not interested until I know more about Ainge's health. Might stab at the UNDER if it goes up a little bit.
Matchups favor South Carolina. Hogs unbeaten in SEC play but Mustain is a true frosh who was 7-for-18 last week against UL-MOnroe!!! The Cocks have not let anyone run for more than 3.7 ypc against them all season and expect them to crowd the box and make Mustain try to beat them inside a rockin' Williams-Brice Stadium. Arky's defense has had its problems against mobile QB's. Would lean toward the underdog if it goes up anymore.
Noles somehow lost at Maryland last week despite inordinate box score advantages. Now at 4-4, there is some real grumbling in Tallahassee. Doesn't matter who is the QB this week, it's time for them to lay a woodshed beating on a hapless foe, and UVa fits the bill. Hoos just 1-8 in their last 9 on the road catching points.
The play: Florida State -12 for a medium bet.
Big opinion on Colorado, which is much better than its record indicates (ask Texas Tech). Kansas State has played a grand total of two road games up to this point. They have nine turnovers in all and zero first-half touchdowns. They are 1-6 ATS on the road since the start of 2005. I made this game much higher and have no problem laying it here. Will wait for 3 but if I start to see 4's popping up (it's painted 3.5 everywhere), I'll have to go out and hit up the 3.5's and any of my shops that let me buy to -3 -120.... that's what I'll do.
The play: Colorado minus the points for a big bet.
I made Tulsa a small favorite over Houston but would have them before the other side, even after the close escape last week. Tulsa 15-4 last 19 ATS but the numbers are starting to get a little on the high side for even the Hurricane to get over. This could be another one that they win, but might not grab the cash laying 4.
The bounces continue to go against O'Leary and his Golden Knights this year, a total 180 from 2005. Smith ran for 163 and 3 scores in tough-beat non-cover at Houston last week. UCF getting Pirates (15-4 ATS last 19) in a back-to-back on the road, where last week they won at Southern Miss in OT. Make it about the same as the line is now.
Have to wonder how Idaho will react to that thrashing last week in Honolulu. Reno has now covered six straight so I'm not trying to beat them but the Vandals are much more competitive in the Dome and this one could easily go to the gun, especially with QB Rowe not all the way healthy.
Washington State could win nine games if everything works out right, and they have been solid as a rock as of late. Still, trying to lay 17 against a defense like Arizona's is asking a bit too much. Their front seven are quick enough to keep this within shouting distance and both banged-up UA QB's should be ready. It's 16 now but if I see more than 17 I will pounce on the 'dog' for a small play.
BYU an offensive juggernaunt and has covered every time out this season; none of the teams in this league can consistently stop this team and the Ram secondary is banged up and tired, allowing NM to rally from 9 down in the 4th in a home loss last week. They led their 3 conference games in October by a combined 89-10 at halftime (SD State, UNLV, AFA). CSU struggling to run the ball and that spells disaster against this offense. Missed the number which is no good.
The play: BYU minus 15.5 for a small bet.
Looking for Billy or someone to push Nebraska back up, as I missed this number too. Difference is here that I'll be on Mizzou regardless of whether it goes back to 6 or not because this is one they can win on the field. Yes, I blew with the Tigers last week but ALL 26 of OU's points last week were set up because of Tiger mistakes (four turnovers, roughing the kicker, blocked punt). Huskers spit up 16 point lead and allowed 41 to Okie State last week. Mizzou played Ayyunem down to the wire and they are much better at this point than NU, in my mind.
The play: Mizzou plus 6 for a medium bet if it comes. Have not bet yet but will also take 4.5 for a medium bet if that's the best I can do.
Took 18 with Okie State, as the Cowpokes have led Texas at halftime (I think) each of the last two years and Reid has really exploded lately, as has the OSU offense, with Savage and Bowman making plays as well. That coach is quietly cleaning up the mess Miles left behind in Stillwater and he should be commended for that. Texas will beat this team but I made it 14.5 and I can see it falling 14 or 17. Take in order here.
The play: Okie State plus 18 for a medium bet.
Penn State and Wisconsin likely playing for Big 10 bronze honors. Not sure I like either offense, especially if Hill isn't healthy enough to run behind the big Badger line. Lean to the host to win but not sure about getting over the number against rugged PSU defense. UNDER worth a look.
I made Va. Tech a little higher than Miami and know of people I respect that are on both sides in this game. YOu can make a case for either. Glennon has struggled in both of his ACC road starts but if he can make them pay for trying to stop Ore, then the Hokies are the right side. Just don't like giving points to Miami in Miami. Pass.
Tulane can easily beat Marshall on the field. Sure, Bradshaw will pile up the yards against sieve-like Tulane defense but the Wave have a rushing game now (Poole 100-plus four straight weeks) and Ricard will salivate over facing Thundering Turd defense; he's thrown for 1678 and 10 touchdowns in the last five weeks.
The play: Tulane plus 6 for a medium bet.
Pounced on Cal when it got below 17. UCLA with no offense to show of lately, and Cal has scored 39 ppg during its seven game winning streak. Recent scare vs. Washington will only wake up the Bears.
The play: Cal -16.5 for a medium bet.
NM State has competed at home against Hawaii and Boise already and Jose has no wins in its last 15 away from home. Holbrook and the basketball on grass Mumme plays will match blows with Jose. Big coaching edge to favorite, though, so gotta pass.
Lot of people are touting Rice. I missed the number, but if it goes back to 10 I could justify a play on the 'dog'. They've won 3 of 4 ST and Clement is proving to be a lot better than anyone thought he would be before the season started. The bye will likely help the Owl defense and UTEP has to be a little drained after near-miss at Tulsa.
The play: Rice plus 10 for a small bet (if it gets there again)
No clue on how Oregon State will respond after the USC win. They get the RB back this week but ASU showing signs of playing up to its potential now that the QB has settled in and is trusting his running game a little bit more. Pass.
In the shit games, I have no plays. Gun to the head leans on Aubbie, FAU, Troy and La Tech (can North Texas actually be favored in a non-con game?)...
GL all... just one big play on this card, boo.... And remember, will have horse action in there tomorrow before the first Breeders' Cup race goes to post.
:shake:
Anyways, check out the horse plays over in that forum sometime in the morning.
Also, I am going to start a Dr. Bob IN-GAME thread every Thursday. Basically, I can monitor most of the moves as they come in and I will alert everyone so they can grab a number at a slow-moving office or with their local.... or if they like the other side, to WAIT it out until all of his clients get down.... Sorta had one this week and I saw how many views it got, so the popularity of it is unmatched; check it out next Thursday at 1:00 Eastern...
Ball State doesn't have the talent to match up with Michigan but will bite on Testy because Carr is known to not run it up on former assistants and friends, and frankly, UM doesn't have to worry about the BCS. Their offense has struggled lately but that will end against an awful Cardinal defense that has shown some signs of improvement against weaker MAC bretheren as of late.
The play: Ball plus 34 for a small play
Made Iowa a little higher but not sure if Christiansen will play as capably as he did last week, even against deflated Northwestern. Not interested in laying it with struggling (ATS) Iowa.
Not sure why everyone seems so enamored with Wake. Sure, they are the "feel-good" story of the year, blah blah blah, great coaching, play hard, good underdog - yes I KNOW. I've made tons and tons on this team dating back to when Grobe first started there. But let's take a close look at this schedule - it's got to be the absolute WEAKEST in all of America. Syracuse, Duke, at UConn, at Ole Piss, Liberty, Clemson, at N.C. State, bye, at North Carolina in the first nine weeks. Take out Clemson, the one team that beat the Deacs, and those teams have about five combined wins against I-A competition. Yes, they're competitive week in and week out but BC is just a little better physically. With a virtual 'bye' last week, the Eagles have had plenty of time to rest and get ready for this pivotal (?) ACC showdown.
THe play: Boston College -3 -120 for a small bet and -3.5 for a small bet and -4 for a small bet (bet it early, figuring it would go up... then just kept betting it once it moved against me).
Anyone with the nuts to bet on or against Michigan State after the coaching announcement just likes to gamble, unless they've got some inside info they wish to divulge, lol... For what it's worth I made MSU 2.5.
I have Pitt slightly higher than they do now but not really interested in laying it, despite the fact I think they are much better than the other side. Road trips to Tampa in November are bear traps in waiting for USF.
Kansas made the change to a new QB last week and he rallied the Jayhawks to a win over Colorado. Expect more of the same progress this week as they travel to Ames to meet a deflated Iowa State team that is missing top RB Hicks (leg) and WR Davis (lung). I've got Kansas a four-point fave here so it was nice to get them at a 'PICK' on Monday afternoon.
The play: Kansas PICK for a medium bet
Indiana and Minny are a tale of two teams going in opposite directions but I made the number about what they have it so not really interested in either side. Gophers still are a little better up front on both sides but IU knows this could be its best shot at a sixth win and accompanying bowl bid.
Not involved in Raleigh yet and prolly won't get involved because NC State is as schizophrenic as they come at home. But you usually get their 'good' side when they are catching points, regardless of locale, and GT hasn't proven reliable enough to start laying meaningful points away from Atlanta.
Dr. Bob pounded the bejeezus out of Clemson (four star play at 17) but can't say I have the same vigor. Yes, the Tigers are much better than Maryland but when do the Terps start deserving to catch more than that? The WV game was absolutely a fraud, the wrong team got the money and that line was 17. They also caught 17 against the Noles and covered last year. No other times in the Fridge Era has UM caught this many points - I would have them or no one but will pass for now.
Waited for 17.5 on Vandy but don't think I'm gonna get it. The Dores have a decent rushing QB (Nickson) that the Gators haven't seen in game competition and UF is in a UGA/SC sammich and will certainly be salivating about welcoming the ol' ball coach back to the Swamp next week. Vandy has competed with everyone this season for the most part and is very well coached - they also should have won in Gainesville last fall and will not be intimidated by this team.
The play: Vandy plus 17 for a medium bet. If it goes to 17.5 I will bet some more.
Dr. Bob bet Illinois way down but I expect this line to climb again before they run out on the field. The Illini have been competitive at times but the quarterback just runs around and chucks it half the time and that won't cut it against this bunch, which should get ahead early and eventually over the number. But it's not my style to lay 20-plus on the road most of the time. I made it 26. Will consider laying 23.5 for a small bet but pass for now.
Ended up with a play on Central Mishitgan. The Chips are still perfect ATS this season and even though I'll give kudos to Temple for its win last week, it was a smoke-and-mirrors deal. They still suck. Made it much higher.
The play: Central -18 for a medium bet.
Not interested in trying to lay DD's with Navy on the road sans their QB but have to wonder how much gas Duke's got left in the tank. Would have them or no one (made it 8) but not involved at this juncture. If I see 13, I will give it serious thought.
Ohio has a MAC East title well within range at this point, and I made money on both they AND Eastern last week - cannot see good reason to go out and start laying a touchdown on the road to a suddenly resurgent EMU defense. If I see 7, I will be involved for a small play on the 'dog'.
Made Kent a little higher against UB but saw some big shops using '14' earlier this week and figured I'd wait for it to get inside 2 touchdowns, which never happened after Dr. Bob got involved.
Georgia isn't very good (not the Georgia you're used to) but they are still eons better than Kentucky. The Cats did get a nice win last time but they are not on any kind of level to compete with this kind consistently.
The play: Jorja minus 6 for a medium bet.
Like I said earlier, BG outplayed Temple despite losing, and I respect Brandon enough to think he will get a maximum effort this week out of his guys against an Akron team that is similarly headed towards nowhere. This game is only more than a touchdown because of the Temple result.
The play: Burning Green plus 8.5 for a small bet.
Bammer in no state to lay DD's to anyone at this point but hard-trying Messy State just ain't very good. Big game for Croom and his kids will play hard but I still make Bammer higher. Pass.
Shocking line of the week for me was seeing Ayunnem catching points against Oklahoma. I made the Aggies a favorite and while I respect what the OU defense has done since Oregon and the RB's efforts last week - I still think A&M is a solid 8-1 bunch worthy of their rating. Now they get OU in a night home game at raucous Kyle Field. Big volume game for Walters, as he took Oklahoma earlier in the week before Dr. Bob took the points. Now Billy's bet OU back up to 3 again. Unfortunately, I overbet this one so it looks like I am stuck with Ayunnem.
The plays: Aggies plus 3 -120 for a small bet. Aggies plus 3 for a medium bet.
Without Bell, the Bears figure to struggle mightily in Lubbock, and perhaps the rest of the way, but can't trust a fragile Tech team that continues to come up short in big games and will no doubt be down this time out.
Shocked to see Notre Dame going down, as if they continue to win and impress, they are playing for their BCS lives. Dr. Bob is on the Tar Heels but how can anyone endorse a team that has trouble throwing the ball and has a sieve-like defense? Will consider laying 24 if it pops up again.
No opinion on all about the TCU/Vegas game. The Frogs with little motivation to truck hapless Vegas and I'm no fan of laying large tariffs to experienced (re: 21-and-older) players traveling to Sin City for the first time.
The Gold Sheet said it best when talking about Hawaii this week: "We might as well be comparing Salma Hayek and Roseanne Barr when talking about these WAC entries, as Hawaii's two 68-point explosions in three games are each more than the 55 US has scored in its first seven games combined!"
The play: Hawaii -26 for a medium bet.
Cold weather sure not to suit SD STate, which lost to a I-AA last week while Wyoming was throttled in Fort Worth. Expect tough Cowboy defense to impose its will on the other side but not interested in laying 3 scores or more with semi-pedestrian Wyoming offense.
Dr. Bob is on Western and I made it a little higher than they opened it but would be more interested in Miami O than the host favorite here. Just a little too high in my mind.
Southern Cal in an ideal spot to break their spread woes. They've not covered in any of their last five and are coming off a rare regular season SU loss. Now they play against perhaps the worst team in I-A right now, as Stanford has lost QB Edwards for the year and bears no semblance of an offense that has much of a chance to score this week. USC will be good for 40-plus and they get back on the gas.
The play: Southern Cal -28 for a medium bet and -27.5 for a small bet.
Not sure if I can trust Washington at this point, as back-to-back overtime losses would certainly damage anyone's mentality. Could be down to third-string QB after Bonnell got pummelled by ASU last week. But Oregon appears headed for a minor bowl at best now that they've absorbed a couple of losses in the league. Now that this has skyrocketed, I will probably be on the 'dog', provided they have any sort of stability at QB and I can take 17.
The play: Washington plus 17 for a small bet (if the line shows up)
I know several smart people are on LSU and UT's quarterback situation is the key to this one. If Ainge is well enough to go, I like the hosts catching the points. They've outscored opponents 68-13 in their last 5 games and Russell is 5-6 SU with 9 INTs and just seven scores against the last 11 SEC bowl teams he's faced. Not interested until I know more about Ainge's health. Might stab at the UNDER if it goes up a little bit.
Matchups favor South Carolina. Hogs unbeaten in SEC play but Mustain is a true frosh who was 7-for-18 last week against UL-MOnroe!!! The Cocks have not let anyone run for more than 3.7 ypc against them all season and expect them to crowd the box and make Mustain try to beat them inside a rockin' Williams-Brice Stadium. Arky's defense has had its problems against mobile QB's. Would lean toward the underdog if it goes up anymore.
Noles somehow lost at Maryland last week despite inordinate box score advantages. Now at 4-4, there is some real grumbling in Tallahassee. Doesn't matter who is the QB this week, it's time for them to lay a woodshed beating on a hapless foe, and UVa fits the bill. Hoos just 1-8 in their last 9 on the road catching points.
The play: Florida State -12 for a medium bet.
Big opinion on Colorado, which is much better than its record indicates (ask Texas Tech). Kansas State has played a grand total of two road games up to this point. They have nine turnovers in all and zero first-half touchdowns. They are 1-6 ATS on the road since the start of 2005. I made this game much higher and have no problem laying it here. Will wait for 3 but if I start to see 4's popping up (it's painted 3.5 everywhere), I'll have to go out and hit up the 3.5's and any of my shops that let me buy to -3 -120.... that's what I'll do.
The play: Colorado minus the points for a big bet.
I made Tulsa a small favorite over Houston but would have them before the other side, even after the close escape last week. Tulsa 15-4 last 19 ATS but the numbers are starting to get a little on the high side for even the Hurricane to get over. This could be another one that they win, but might not grab the cash laying 4.
The bounces continue to go against O'Leary and his Golden Knights this year, a total 180 from 2005. Smith ran for 163 and 3 scores in tough-beat non-cover at Houston last week. UCF getting Pirates (15-4 ATS last 19) in a back-to-back on the road, where last week they won at Southern Miss in OT. Make it about the same as the line is now.
Have to wonder how Idaho will react to that thrashing last week in Honolulu. Reno has now covered six straight so I'm not trying to beat them but the Vandals are much more competitive in the Dome and this one could easily go to the gun, especially with QB Rowe not all the way healthy.
Washington State could win nine games if everything works out right, and they have been solid as a rock as of late. Still, trying to lay 17 against a defense like Arizona's is asking a bit too much. Their front seven are quick enough to keep this within shouting distance and both banged-up UA QB's should be ready. It's 16 now but if I see more than 17 I will pounce on the 'dog' for a small play.
BYU an offensive juggernaunt and has covered every time out this season; none of the teams in this league can consistently stop this team and the Ram secondary is banged up and tired, allowing NM to rally from 9 down in the 4th in a home loss last week. They led their 3 conference games in October by a combined 89-10 at halftime (SD State, UNLV, AFA). CSU struggling to run the ball and that spells disaster against this offense. Missed the number which is no good.
The play: BYU minus 15.5 for a small bet.
Looking for Billy or someone to push Nebraska back up, as I missed this number too. Difference is here that I'll be on Mizzou regardless of whether it goes back to 6 or not because this is one they can win on the field. Yes, I blew with the Tigers last week but ALL 26 of OU's points last week were set up because of Tiger mistakes (four turnovers, roughing the kicker, blocked punt). Huskers spit up 16 point lead and allowed 41 to Okie State last week. Mizzou played Ayyunem down to the wire and they are much better at this point than NU, in my mind.
The play: Mizzou plus 6 for a medium bet if it comes. Have not bet yet but will also take 4.5 for a medium bet if that's the best I can do.
Took 18 with Okie State, as the Cowpokes have led Texas at halftime (I think) each of the last two years and Reid has really exploded lately, as has the OSU offense, with Savage and Bowman making plays as well. That coach is quietly cleaning up the mess Miles left behind in Stillwater and he should be commended for that. Texas will beat this team but I made it 14.5 and I can see it falling 14 or 17. Take in order here.
The play: Okie State plus 18 for a medium bet.
Penn State and Wisconsin likely playing for Big 10 bronze honors. Not sure I like either offense, especially if Hill isn't healthy enough to run behind the big Badger line. Lean to the host to win but not sure about getting over the number against rugged PSU defense. UNDER worth a look.
I made Va. Tech a little higher than Miami and know of people I respect that are on both sides in this game. YOu can make a case for either. Glennon has struggled in both of his ACC road starts but if he can make them pay for trying to stop Ore, then the Hokies are the right side. Just don't like giving points to Miami in Miami. Pass.
Tulane can easily beat Marshall on the field. Sure, Bradshaw will pile up the yards against sieve-like Tulane defense but the Wave have a rushing game now (Poole 100-plus four straight weeks) and Ricard will salivate over facing Thundering Turd defense; he's thrown for 1678 and 10 touchdowns in the last five weeks.
The play: Tulane plus 6 for a medium bet.
Pounced on Cal when it got below 17. UCLA with no offense to show of lately, and Cal has scored 39 ppg during its seven game winning streak. Recent scare vs. Washington will only wake up the Bears.
The play: Cal -16.5 for a medium bet.
NM State has competed at home against Hawaii and Boise already and Jose has no wins in its last 15 away from home. Holbrook and the basketball on grass Mumme plays will match blows with Jose. Big coaching edge to favorite, though, so gotta pass.
Lot of people are touting Rice. I missed the number, but if it goes back to 10 I could justify a play on the 'dog'. They've won 3 of 4 ST and Clement is proving to be a lot better than anyone thought he would be before the season started. The bye will likely help the Owl defense and UTEP has to be a little drained after near-miss at Tulsa.
The play: Rice plus 10 for a small bet (if it gets there again)
No clue on how Oregon State will respond after the USC win. They get the RB back this week but ASU showing signs of playing up to its potential now that the QB has settled in and is trusting his running game a little bit more. Pass.
In the shit games, I have no plays. Gun to the head leans on Aubbie, FAU, Troy and La Tech (can North Texas actually be favored in a non-con game?)...
GL all... just one big play on this card, boo.... And remember, will have horse action in there tomorrow before the first Breeders' Cup race goes to post.
:shake:
