CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Not a lot to like this weekend after doing pretty good research on most of this card. One note: no baseball tonight and the last footsie (before Hawaii) starts at 7:45, so it looks like everyone will know where they stand before the GSFW's kick in Honolulu. That's a rarity. Unfortunately, I'm involved small there so I won't know my exact figure until I get in here Sunday morning.
2-0 in the early week games after Va Tech on the field and the "UNDER" last night. Good start.
Not real interested in either side in Iowa City. Hawks off another disappointing loss (great effort) in Ann Arbor while NIU is effectively out of the MAC race. Expect them to play harder than Iowa but is the talent there to cover 16 or more? Not sure.
Barfalo is really pretty bad but I sincerely question BC's motiviation here. Look at their schedule and their propensity to blow out no one this year and the points might be worth a good look.
The play: Barfalo plus 35.5 for a small bet
Wake Forest, an 8-point favorite? On the road? Would never lay it but can't recommend Carolina, either, and its lame-duck coach.
Navy would be a side I would be all over if I knew they could run the ball effectively. Without the starting quarterback, they didn't do anything right against Rutgers. Irish 1-9-1 last 11 ATS, so won't have them either.
They bet on NC State, then on Vagina. I wouldn't have either one of those bunches at this point. UVA would be my preferred side but not interested in trying to lay points with them.
The Noles are laying four in College Park. No opinion, as I've been burnt by both teams all year. If you want fade material, then I would have FSU (so my recommendation to the forum is Maryland)...
I made Cincinnati slightly higher but won't lay a touchdown with their semi-anemic offense, even at home.
They've been pounding Northwestern all week and there is some value with UM if you think the Wildcats will lay down and quit, which certainly is a possibility after last week's fiasco. I have no clue.
Wisconsin is clearly the third best team in the Big Ten and one of the biggest surprises of the season. All they do is get the cash every week. That said, Illinois is better than some of these scores indicate - youthfulness and turnovers have doomed the Zookers every week.
Not sure what to make of schizophrenic Sparty, who added another chapter to their dizzying season last week. IU was also down 35 but they didn't come back at the Horseshoe...
Temple line a bit high, as their backdoor potential was realized last week in DeKalb and this is a revenge (?) spot for the Owls, as better BG units hung 70 on them the last two years. Shelton should give them enough offense to get inside this tariff.
The play: Temple plus 18.5 for a small bet
Vandy, an 8-point favorite. On the road? Would never lay it but can't recommend Duke, either, and its downtrodden troops after yet another close loss last week.
Tough to call in Colly Springs. AFA will now be in fight for minor bowl while BYU is steamrolling towards a league title. But tough to give the Flyboys more than a touchdown at home. Will pass because BYU threw up 62 last year and Bronco seems to slow Fisher's offense on a yearly basis.
Snatched six with Ball the other day after Dr. Bob and his followers finished up with Miami O. Just can't see the RedHawk offense doing enough consistently (though Kokal vs. BSU secondary worries me) to keep up with Cardinal offense.
The play: Ball State plus 6 for a small bet.
Give Iowa State the nod in Manhattan. The Clones have struggled, yes, but their killer schedule sets them up well in this spot against youthful and out-talented K-State.
The play: Iowa State plus 4.5 for a small bet and plus 170 for a small bet.
The last thing you want when facing the Texas Tech offense is a dinged up D, and that's what Texas has. Tackle Derek Lokey broke his leg against Nebraska. While he's hardly a household name, he was the anchor up front. They've got assorted players on defense who will either be out or are dinged up. As long as Harrell stops throwing the ball to the wrong team, expect Tech to take this one to the wire, and, like Nebraska last week, have a chance to win it late.
The play: Texas Tech plus 11.5 for a medium bet.
Would like Tulane against Army, and even though I think Wave will move ball up and down the field, can't start laying a touchdown with them and that piss-poor defense.
Ayyunem pass defense likely to be exploited by Bell and confident Baylor passing game. The Ags have been winning all the close ones but BU has taken this series to OT the last two seasons with much lesser units.
The play: Baylor plus 5 for a medium bet.
Not sure what to make of Penn State or Purwhoo. Boilers appear headed for a minor bowl, while PSU just flat got outplayed despite beating Illinois last week. Injuries are a problem heading into this one for both sides, too. Pass.
Minny season almost blew up last week as they edged N.D. State (I-AA) 10-9 on a blocked FG at the end. Still, Mason will always get them up to play the Buckeyes and expect him to empty his bag of tricks with talented Cupito. OSU just too much on both sides but not interested in laying it.
Eastern Michigan appears to have found its QB - and despite losing the lead briefly against UT last week, rallied to get the win late. Tyler Jones should be able to do some things against a stingy Western defense that has inflated the pointspread. These have been track meets as of late, and the visitor has won each of the last three SU in this competitive matchup. Last two meetings fell 44-36 and 35-31.
The play: Eastern Mishitgan plus 15.5 for a big bet.
Ole Piss offense pretty pedestrian after Green-Ellis and with Aubbie front seven allowing less than 3 ypc this season, don't expect much out of him. Rebs haven't covered in last five at home in this series and as long as War Eagle is focused, cover should be in hand by halftime or so. Missed number, so gotta play it small.
THe play: Aubbie minus 18.5 for a small bet.
Really love the situation in Columbia as Superior went to Knoxvul and beat Fat Phil and the Vols in the middle of that downward spiral in '05. No such thing exists this fall as UT is the best team in the league at this point and the survival against hard-trying Bammer last week was a better win than it appeared. Cocks have won just two of the last 14 meetings and they don't have the offensive firepower to match points with Vols. Visitor is 7-1 ATS in this series and UT is 9-3 in its last 12 ATS as a road fave. UT is better up front on both sides of the ball and Ainge won't struggle with this Cock secondary like he did Bammer's. UT with four straight covers in Columbia and you can bet Fat Phil will be pouring it on late.
The play: Tennessee -3 for a big bet.
Florida laid 19 four or five years ago and won 24-10. But the rest of these matchups in this series usually have a pointspread much much lower, so I'd lean to the dog if forced to bet. This, despite UGA's struggles on defense since the Colorado game and Florida's dynamic offense getting a week to prep for this one. Remember, Gators coming off a loss. Usually Urban thrives off losses (going back to BG days) but he's never been in national title contention BEFORE losing, so tough to tell how UF takes it.
No opinion in USC/Oregon State. USC "due" to lay the whoopin on someone, but four straight non-covers tells me they are still go-against. Check status of Bernard for Beavers; he's key.
Another Pac-10 game where I have no clue in Seattle. UW clearly outplayed Cal most of the game last week, but lost a tough one, their second straight setback. How they rebound is the key here. ASU thrashed Stanford and since it was Stanford, can't call Carpenter's performance a coming-out party yet. We'll find out more today.
Not sure how they can make Kent a touchdown favorite over Bobcats. Kent has played well lately, with four straight wins and covers in MAC games but Bobcats torched this defense for 373 yards on the ground alone and 35 points last fall. Tough-to-read Bobcats have also won three straight and are brimming with confidence going into this one, as they control their MAC East fate with a win today.
THe play: Ohio U plus 7 for a medium bet.
UNLV sans Steichen (with the way Hinds has played) is an auto go-against but can't lay three touchdowns with a team that blew all of a 24-3 lead to pedestrian New Mexico and lost outright last time.
Reno nine straight wins and covers at home and even without Rowe last week, got my money. I make this a little lower even if Rowe plays as Shallow Hal is the king of the backdoor. Last week, his last touchdown got everyone the money who bet the Hawaii/NM State game at a good price (opened 16 or so, was as high as 20, fell 18)...
Perhaps the most humorous thing of the entire season came when West fired Joe Lee Dunn a few weeks back. Tigers have "yielded" 41, 36, 26 and 35 points in the four games since he was shit-canned. Neither had a cover or a I-A win all season until Marshall pounded U-ab with Bradshaw getting the bulk of the work. Tough to lay 10, though, with a bad team.
Furious at myself for missing the number in Fort Collins, as emerging Lobos off a nice comeback win over Utah and this well-coached bunch is now back in the running for a minor bowl. Bob Toledo's West Coast offense getting on track now and frosh QB Porterie a step up from CSU QB Hanie guiding 111th-ranked offense that's running for just 2.4 ypc. CSU secondary mired with injuries and New Mexico is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 road games. If I see a '7' pop up, I'll be there.
The play: New Mexico plus 7 for a medium bet (when it shows up).
Since Lousyana Tech played a KILLER schedule early on, would think the world overadjusted to how bad they really are. Utah State ain't anything to write home about (and giving up 35 to that bunch is the lone reason I'm off this play) but LT did put up 48 and offense appears better equipped to handle these defenses that are a step down in class than ones they've faced. Will consider taking 11 here if it pops up.
Don't ask me about Kentucky and Messy State. I've got no clue. Rooting for MSU so we can expedite Brooks's firing.
Houston got my money last week and they'll have a chance to get it again. As good as the breaks were for O'Leary and the Knights last year, well, they've been equally bad this season. This football team is not as bad as its record indicates and if the offense can score with Houston they should be able to stay inside this lofty tariff.
The play: Central Florida plus 17.5 for a small bet.
No opinion on Akron/Toledo. Every time I bet on a Toledo game I lose (0-3 this year, I think all "on" the Dildos)...
Tough to call in Atlanta. Canes get all their guys back from suspension but I can't recommend them after they decided not to show up for the second half and quit on me in Durham last week. Tech steaming after embarassing loss to Clemson where they didn't get Johnson the ball ONCE (How is that possible?)... Would recommend fave but Miami's success under Coker (U of L this year aside) as a 'dog' keeps me away.
Okie/Mizzou will be on TV here and I will be watching that one as intently as anything early on for halftime clues. Sure hate to lay it against this Sooner defense but without "A.P", I think they will prolly win the game. No play for now, though.
Would think Nebraska is the right side and I made them 8 against Okie State but not sure how their mental state will be after giving Texas the game last week at home.
Frankly, this is a tough spot for UCLA. They were geared up to win in South Bend last week and they, too, gave away a win at the end of regulation. Wazzou totally dominated Oregon and its defense has been pretty dam good since Aubbie debacle on the plains in the opener. UCLA got only 12 first downs and 243 yards last week and this defense is better than ND's. Brink was 20-of-23 last week and is confident at this point. Let's try the Cougs today.
The play: Washington State plus 1.5 for a small bet and plus 105 for a medium bet.
Wyoming defense has been pretty dam stellar all season. TCU had trouble scoring against Army last week (most points came after Army turnovers on a short field) and QB Ballard has been misfiring all season; last week into 4- and 5-wide sets. Cowboy QB Sween getting better by the week; they've won three straight and continue to offer value as long as they're catching points against modest offenses.
The play: Wyoming plus 6.5 for a medium bet and plus 220 for a small bet.
East Carolina in revenge mode after 33-7 loss last season, one of few ATS losers in Holtz Era, but can't back Pirates, who played five straight home games and were last on the road Sept. 9. Tough to tell how they'll respond but I do think they are the better team.
Hawaii laying another ridiculous number, especially against a Vandal unit that has played hard and pretty well in WAC games. Expect potatoes to milk clock and try to keep Brennan and GSFW offense off the field for as much time as possible. Just looks a little high to me.
The play: Idaho plus 26.5 for a small bet. UNDER 71 for a small bet (Thanks, HawaiiGuy).
In the shit games, I could be walking into bear traps betting on these faves. But some of them just far outclass the other sides. Skipped Bama/FIU (emotional psyche for both in question); Troy/North Texas (missed the number again when it was less than 10, though if Billy's on North Texas like usual, I'll be on the Trojans small at less than 10); Monroe/Arkansas (lot of points, tough to tell, lean to Monroe).
Did bite on Arky State on the road. FAU held U-La-La to six about 10 days ago but their offense will have no luck against this defense - especially if they couldn't dent U-La-La.
The play: Arky State -6 for a small bet.
Not understanding how they make U-La-La the fave over Middle, as the Blue Raiders appear to be the best team in the SBC at this point, overcoming a -4 turnover ratio to still win last week. They reeled me in.
The play: Middle Tennessee plus 3 for a small bet and plus 125 for a medium bet.
Good luck all!
:shake:
2-0 in the early week games after Va Tech on the field and the "UNDER" last night. Good start.
Not real interested in either side in Iowa City. Hawks off another disappointing loss (great effort) in Ann Arbor while NIU is effectively out of the MAC race. Expect them to play harder than Iowa but is the talent there to cover 16 or more? Not sure.
Barfalo is really pretty bad but I sincerely question BC's motiviation here. Look at their schedule and their propensity to blow out no one this year and the points might be worth a good look.
The play: Barfalo plus 35.5 for a small bet
Wake Forest, an 8-point favorite? On the road? Would never lay it but can't recommend Carolina, either, and its lame-duck coach.
Navy would be a side I would be all over if I knew they could run the ball effectively. Without the starting quarterback, they didn't do anything right against Rutgers. Irish 1-9-1 last 11 ATS, so won't have them either.
They bet on NC State, then on Vagina. I wouldn't have either one of those bunches at this point. UVA would be my preferred side but not interested in trying to lay points with them.
The Noles are laying four in College Park. No opinion, as I've been burnt by both teams all year. If you want fade material, then I would have FSU (so my recommendation to the forum is Maryland)...
I made Cincinnati slightly higher but won't lay a touchdown with their semi-anemic offense, even at home.
They've been pounding Northwestern all week and there is some value with UM if you think the Wildcats will lay down and quit, which certainly is a possibility after last week's fiasco. I have no clue.
Wisconsin is clearly the third best team in the Big Ten and one of the biggest surprises of the season. All they do is get the cash every week. That said, Illinois is better than some of these scores indicate - youthfulness and turnovers have doomed the Zookers every week.
Not sure what to make of schizophrenic Sparty, who added another chapter to their dizzying season last week. IU was also down 35 but they didn't come back at the Horseshoe...
Temple line a bit high, as their backdoor potential was realized last week in DeKalb and this is a revenge (?) spot for the Owls, as better BG units hung 70 on them the last two years. Shelton should give them enough offense to get inside this tariff.
The play: Temple plus 18.5 for a small bet
Vandy, an 8-point favorite. On the road? Would never lay it but can't recommend Duke, either, and its downtrodden troops after yet another close loss last week.
Tough to call in Colly Springs. AFA will now be in fight for minor bowl while BYU is steamrolling towards a league title. But tough to give the Flyboys more than a touchdown at home. Will pass because BYU threw up 62 last year and Bronco seems to slow Fisher's offense on a yearly basis.
Snatched six with Ball the other day after Dr. Bob and his followers finished up with Miami O. Just can't see the RedHawk offense doing enough consistently (though Kokal vs. BSU secondary worries me) to keep up with Cardinal offense.
The play: Ball State plus 6 for a small bet.
Give Iowa State the nod in Manhattan. The Clones have struggled, yes, but their killer schedule sets them up well in this spot against youthful and out-talented K-State.
The play: Iowa State plus 4.5 for a small bet and plus 170 for a small bet.
The last thing you want when facing the Texas Tech offense is a dinged up D, and that's what Texas has. Tackle Derek Lokey broke his leg against Nebraska. While he's hardly a household name, he was the anchor up front. They've got assorted players on defense who will either be out or are dinged up. As long as Harrell stops throwing the ball to the wrong team, expect Tech to take this one to the wire, and, like Nebraska last week, have a chance to win it late.
The play: Texas Tech plus 11.5 for a medium bet.
Would like Tulane against Army, and even though I think Wave will move ball up and down the field, can't start laying a touchdown with them and that piss-poor defense.
Ayyunem pass defense likely to be exploited by Bell and confident Baylor passing game. The Ags have been winning all the close ones but BU has taken this series to OT the last two seasons with much lesser units.
The play: Baylor plus 5 for a medium bet.
Not sure what to make of Penn State or Purwhoo. Boilers appear headed for a minor bowl, while PSU just flat got outplayed despite beating Illinois last week. Injuries are a problem heading into this one for both sides, too. Pass.
Minny season almost blew up last week as they edged N.D. State (I-AA) 10-9 on a blocked FG at the end. Still, Mason will always get them up to play the Buckeyes and expect him to empty his bag of tricks with talented Cupito. OSU just too much on both sides but not interested in laying it.
Eastern Michigan appears to have found its QB - and despite losing the lead briefly against UT last week, rallied to get the win late. Tyler Jones should be able to do some things against a stingy Western defense that has inflated the pointspread. These have been track meets as of late, and the visitor has won each of the last three SU in this competitive matchup. Last two meetings fell 44-36 and 35-31.
The play: Eastern Mishitgan plus 15.5 for a big bet.
Ole Piss offense pretty pedestrian after Green-Ellis and with Aubbie front seven allowing less than 3 ypc this season, don't expect much out of him. Rebs haven't covered in last five at home in this series and as long as War Eagle is focused, cover should be in hand by halftime or so. Missed number, so gotta play it small.
THe play: Aubbie minus 18.5 for a small bet.
Really love the situation in Columbia as Superior went to Knoxvul and beat Fat Phil and the Vols in the middle of that downward spiral in '05. No such thing exists this fall as UT is the best team in the league at this point and the survival against hard-trying Bammer last week was a better win than it appeared. Cocks have won just two of the last 14 meetings and they don't have the offensive firepower to match points with Vols. Visitor is 7-1 ATS in this series and UT is 9-3 in its last 12 ATS as a road fave. UT is better up front on both sides of the ball and Ainge won't struggle with this Cock secondary like he did Bammer's. UT with four straight covers in Columbia and you can bet Fat Phil will be pouring it on late.
The play: Tennessee -3 for a big bet.
Florida laid 19 four or five years ago and won 24-10. But the rest of these matchups in this series usually have a pointspread much much lower, so I'd lean to the dog if forced to bet. This, despite UGA's struggles on defense since the Colorado game and Florida's dynamic offense getting a week to prep for this one. Remember, Gators coming off a loss. Usually Urban thrives off losses (going back to BG days) but he's never been in national title contention BEFORE losing, so tough to tell how UF takes it.
No opinion in USC/Oregon State. USC "due" to lay the whoopin on someone, but four straight non-covers tells me they are still go-against. Check status of Bernard for Beavers; he's key.
Another Pac-10 game where I have no clue in Seattle. UW clearly outplayed Cal most of the game last week, but lost a tough one, their second straight setback. How they rebound is the key here. ASU thrashed Stanford and since it was Stanford, can't call Carpenter's performance a coming-out party yet. We'll find out more today.
Not sure how they can make Kent a touchdown favorite over Bobcats. Kent has played well lately, with four straight wins and covers in MAC games but Bobcats torched this defense for 373 yards on the ground alone and 35 points last fall. Tough-to-read Bobcats have also won three straight and are brimming with confidence going into this one, as they control their MAC East fate with a win today.
THe play: Ohio U plus 7 for a medium bet.
UNLV sans Steichen (with the way Hinds has played) is an auto go-against but can't lay three touchdowns with a team that blew all of a 24-3 lead to pedestrian New Mexico and lost outright last time.
Reno nine straight wins and covers at home and even without Rowe last week, got my money. I make this a little lower even if Rowe plays as Shallow Hal is the king of the backdoor. Last week, his last touchdown got everyone the money who bet the Hawaii/NM State game at a good price (opened 16 or so, was as high as 20, fell 18)...
Perhaps the most humorous thing of the entire season came when West fired Joe Lee Dunn a few weeks back. Tigers have "yielded" 41, 36, 26 and 35 points in the four games since he was shit-canned. Neither had a cover or a I-A win all season until Marshall pounded U-ab with Bradshaw getting the bulk of the work. Tough to lay 10, though, with a bad team.
Furious at myself for missing the number in Fort Collins, as emerging Lobos off a nice comeback win over Utah and this well-coached bunch is now back in the running for a minor bowl. Bob Toledo's West Coast offense getting on track now and frosh QB Porterie a step up from CSU QB Hanie guiding 111th-ranked offense that's running for just 2.4 ypc. CSU secondary mired with injuries and New Mexico is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 road games. If I see a '7' pop up, I'll be there.
The play: New Mexico plus 7 for a medium bet (when it shows up).
Since Lousyana Tech played a KILLER schedule early on, would think the world overadjusted to how bad they really are. Utah State ain't anything to write home about (and giving up 35 to that bunch is the lone reason I'm off this play) but LT did put up 48 and offense appears better equipped to handle these defenses that are a step down in class than ones they've faced. Will consider taking 11 here if it pops up.
Don't ask me about Kentucky and Messy State. I've got no clue. Rooting for MSU so we can expedite Brooks's firing.
Houston got my money last week and they'll have a chance to get it again. As good as the breaks were for O'Leary and the Knights last year, well, they've been equally bad this season. This football team is not as bad as its record indicates and if the offense can score with Houston they should be able to stay inside this lofty tariff.
The play: Central Florida plus 17.5 for a small bet.
No opinion on Akron/Toledo. Every time I bet on a Toledo game I lose (0-3 this year, I think all "on" the Dildos)...
Tough to call in Atlanta. Canes get all their guys back from suspension but I can't recommend them after they decided not to show up for the second half and quit on me in Durham last week. Tech steaming after embarassing loss to Clemson where they didn't get Johnson the ball ONCE (How is that possible?)... Would recommend fave but Miami's success under Coker (U of L this year aside) as a 'dog' keeps me away.
Okie/Mizzou will be on TV here and I will be watching that one as intently as anything early on for halftime clues. Sure hate to lay it against this Sooner defense but without "A.P", I think they will prolly win the game. No play for now, though.
Would think Nebraska is the right side and I made them 8 against Okie State but not sure how their mental state will be after giving Texas the game last week at home.
Frankly, this is a tough spot for UCLA. They were geared up to win in South Bend last week and they, too, gave away a win at the end of regulation. Wazzou totally dominated Oregon and its defense has been pretty dam good since Aubbie debacle on the plains in the opener. UCLA got only 12 first downs and 243 yards last week and this defense is better than ND's. Brink was 20-of-23 last week and is confident at this point. Let's try the Cougs today.
The play: Washington State plus 1.5 for a small bet and plus 105 for a medium bet.
Wyoming defense has been pretty dam stellar all season. TCU had trouble scoring against Army last week (most points came after Army turnovers on a short field) and QB Ballard has been misfiring all season; last week into 4- and 5-wide sets. Cowboy QB Sween getting better by the week; they've won three straight and continue to offer value as long as they're catching points against modest offenses.
The play: Wyoming plus 6.5 for a medium bet and plus 220 for a small bet.
East Carolina in revenge mode after 33-7 loss last season, one of few ATS losers in Holtz Era, but can't back Pirates, who played five straight home games and were last on the road Sept. 9. Tough to tell how they'll respond but I do think they are the better team.
Hawaii laying another ridiculous number, especially against a Vandal unit that has played hard and pretty well in WAC games. Expect potatoes to milk clock and try to keep Brennan and GSFW offense off the field for as much time as possible. Just looks a little high to me.
The play: Idaho plus 26.5 for a small bet. UNDER 71 for a small bet (Thanks, HawaiiGuy).
In the shit games, I could be walking into bear traps betting on these faves. But some of them just far outclass the other sides. Skipped Bama/FIU (emotional psyche for both in question); Troy/North Texas (missed the number again when it was less than 10, though if Billy's on North Texas like usual, I'll be on the Trojans small at less than 10); Monroe/Arkansas (lot of points, tough to tell, lean to Monroe).
Did bite on Arky State on the road. FAU held U-La-La to six about 10 days ago but their offense will have no luck against this defense - especially if they couldn't dent U-La-La.
The play: Arky State -6 for a small bet.
Not understanding how they make U-La-La the fave over Middle, as the Blue Raiders appear to be the best team in the SBC at this point, overcoming a -4 turnover ratio to still win last week. They reeled me in.
The play: Middle Tennessee plus 3 for a small bet and plus 125 for a medium bet.
Good luck all!
:shake:
