Saturday's CFB...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Sup fellas... One more time, we get Saturday football. Not quite a full card. Was very selective last week and ended up going about 8-3 (mostly medium bets, take moneylines into account as losses and wins as well) so yet another good week. Too bad this season is coming to an end. It's been quite a profitable one for me, despite the various oddities that have come out of this season (and gotdamn, there's been a lot of them)...

Since I'm not working at the shop anymore, I don't have a problem giving you guys my raw power ratings for this week's games. These are the numbers I come up with each Sunday morning. While most of yas are trying to get a feel for the Niffel or what-not, I am perusing box scores and updating power ratings. I watch the first halves of all Niffel games hoping to get a feel for what the halftime numbers should be. The second halves of the 1:00 games, I spend coming up with these updated raw numbers and then getting my own line for the next week's college games.

I don't always bet these raw numbers, because they don't take into account all the injuries, revenge factor, sandwich or look-ahead spots, rivalries... the list goes on and on...


Army/Navy should be close to the number. Navy's defense is quite porous, however, and I'm not sure Army can slow the Middies, either. It will be cold, but dry, in Baltimore.

The play: OVER 65 for a medium bet.


Arizona has had two weeks to celebrate its thwarting/thrashing of No. 2 Oregon, but as we saw last week, that Duck team they dismantled was far from any kind of offensive juggernaunt after Dixon went down. The Wildcats have improved but as long as ASU doesn't stay down in the dumps too long after the USC debacle from last week, expect them to rebound nicely here. The Sun Devils still have a chance to play in the Rose Bowl if the Trojans spit the bit against UCLA, or earn a Fiesta Bowl berth as an at-large BCS selection with a win as well.

The Wildcats lack a reliable running game and they have had season-long problems with breakdowns on defense. Carpenter is an efficient passer and should have success throwing the ball to whatever side of the field Cason isn’t on. I made it a little higher, so I don't mind laying it here.

The play: Arizona State -7 for a medium bet.

Back with the shit games and conference championships in a bit...
:cheers:
 
Rex, I love the Army/Navy over 65 and I am actually going to the game in Baltimore! The Army team has played conservative all year on offense, but in their last game they finally opened up the playbook (resulting in a 49-39 loss to Tulsa). Navy played a 74-62 game about a month ago and Army can salvage their season with an upset, expect trick plays and fake punts, etc. I think final will be Navy 45-35!
 
Thanks a lot fellas.

Jimbof - I posted some stuff over there earlier today in the thread talking about today's games (six pages long at this point)... hope that gets you a little closer up to speed on what's happening with me.

Also, another note for the CBB peeps... I was very far behind this season in my pre-season preparations. Two guys who went to the states both forgot to bring back my 4-5 magazines and the one guy who went to the Gambler's Book Shop in Vegas also forgot on his trip there... so when you add that up with the early start to the season, you get a capper who is caught with his pants down. I have a system that will start with tomorrow's games and I hope to post some plays then.

Not sure where Troy gets off laying more than two touchdowns in what basically boils down to a conference championship. The Owls have just enough offense to be able to stay with Troy if it turns into a track meet. Rusty Smith and the passing attack should put up big numbers if that stout O-line can withstand the pressure they are surely going to face from the condoms. Haugabook is talented, but mistake-prone. With 10 turnovers and 30 takeaways, FAU is third in the nation in turnover margin. Presuming it wins the turnover battle, I expect the Owls to hang tight all the way to the finish. Ol' Howard trying to get back to a bowl with this team, which would be a first since he got to FAU.

The play: Florida Atlantic +15.5 for a big bet.

I know Florida International ain't won a game since the Republicans controlled Congress, but Jesus, who is this North Texas team to lay points to anyone? This is a like a glorified vacation, as the Green are venturing into Miami in December... The hungry host snaps the skid.

The play: FIU moneyline for a small bet.

Central Michigan's offense appears to be a bit too much for Miami. The Chips are scoring 43 ppg in MAC games and the comeback win last week in Akron is a nice confidence booster. Also, that game started at 11 a.m. as well, giving CMU a slight edge in preparation for the early start. Miami's defense is fairly stout but they've faced some sorry offenses in the last couple of months. They look a tad overmatched here.

The play: Central Mishitgan -3 for a medium bet.

Central Florida has won six straight since the back-to-back debacles in Greenville and Tampa, where they gave up 52 and 64 points in debiltating losses. UCF is C-USA's best team right now; laying just a touchdown to a Tulsa team that has a poor defense (that's being kind; what was the deal in the Houston game, anyway?)... But since the weather appears to want to cooperate, we should expect a similar result to what happened earlier this season - only with more points.

The play: small 2-team parlay with UCF -7 to OVER 74... and OVER 74 small

Virginia Tech stuck it right in my ass earlier this year when I stopped watching to pick up a friend at the airport. I mentally counted it as a win when they were up 10-0 or 13-0 inside of five minutes before losing the game outright... But they are much better than BC at this point.

The offense is finally playing at the level of the defense for VT. Both quarterbacks have made great strides since the start of the season. The increase in passing productivity is exactly what is needed to beat Boston College. Both Florida State and Maryland were able to move the ball through the air against the Eagles, thus avoiding one of the better rush defenses in the country. In the last matchup, the Hokies managed only six yards per pass play vs. BC, but have since averaged over 10. VT is one of the few teams to find success with running the ball against BC, with 116 yards in their first matchup. Defensively, Virginia Tech did an outstanding job for 57 minutes, applying pressure until going to the stupid prevent to lose the game outright last time. The Hokies have allowed just two passing TDs in four games. And remember, VT was the better team until the flukish finish. And that VT team didn’t have Taylor, a change-of-pace to starter Glennon that gives the offense a unique dimension, especially near the goal line. It also didn’t have Vince Hall, one of the league’s best linebackers and a run-stuffer extraordinaire, who’s returned from a wrist injury to play two solid games. And Branden Ore is coming off his best game of the year, running behind a Tech line that has finally shown signs of cohesiveness. It all points to a big revenge win for the Hokies and a trip to the Orange Bowl.

The play: Virginia Tech -4 for a medium bet.

Back with the rest in a few.
 
Rexy sorry if you posted this in another thread but what do you think about tonights game? gl with you plays this week.
 
There is little arguing that Oklahoma is loaded with as much talent as anyone in America. But problems away from Norman, including a loss at Texas Tech and a near-miss at Iowa State, have eliminated an aura of invincibility.

Missouri's players seem to think they were the better team in Norman on Oct. 13, when Daniel threw for 361 yards and the offense outgained OU 418 yards to 384, but lost because of four turnovers, including a late fumble returned for a touchdown.

But Mizzou shouldn't be intimated by the big game, and welcomes back top running back Tony Temple, who was out against OU the first time around with an ankle injury.

Mizzou is fifth in the nation in total offense and sixth in scoring and the Tigers are the only team in America that has scored 30 points or more in every game this season (eight times the Tigers have reached 40). This offense is a fully-functioning juggernaut and won't be stopped.

At home this year, Oklahoma went 7-0, including wins over Miami, Missouri, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State, by an average score of 52-16.

But away from home, against Tulsa, Colorado, Texas, Iowa State and Texas Tech, the Sooners went a pedestrian 3-2, outscoring teams by a 31-22 margin.

Missouri has been solid away from home, beating Illinois, an Ole Miss team that was ultra-competitive most weeks at home against the SEC, Colorado and Kansas State to go along with the Kansas win and the tough loss to OU.

It's no secret that the Sooner secondary can be beaten by an effective passing attack. Daniel was fantastic in the first meeting, Texas Tech's Graham Harrell had a field day... and basically, any quarterback talented enough to get the ball out of his hands in a hurry had some success. Oklahoma's offense is going to score some points but I'll take the top-ranked dog here.

The play: Missouri +3 and ML for medium bets each.

That's all for the weekend boys and girls.

GL!
 
Can't argue any of your plays Rex.. all look good to me. My two favorites right now are the VT and Mizzou picks. Any thoughts on the SEC title game? I lean Tenn here
 
GG: You have to be semi-masochistic to bet on or against LSU at this point. I don't care what anyone says, that's the most talented team in the country when healthy. I don't know how they lost twice this season. Sure, the schedule was tough but they were in position to lose five times potentially. I don't know what the deal is with their coach.

I do know Tennessee is banged up. And while Kentucky lost to all four teams in the East that were better than them pre-season, they still played in a lot of physical games and their defense was pretty formidable most of the year. So I wouldn't want the Vols, either.

Unless some weird shit happens, where UT runs way out then the other team comes back wildly and wins... or vice versa, where LSU runs out to a big lead and spits it up... I can't see the points making any difference. Either LSU wins the game and gets the money or UT wins outright. Don't see Vols losing by 1 to 7...

GL...
 
Sorry fellas. I said earlier I would provide the raw numbers i made for all the games. Home field advantage IS factored into these numbers...

Here they are.

Louisville 2.5
Fresno 16.5

Navy 13.5
Reno 7
Southern Cal 18
Oregon 1
Cal 13
West Virginia 25
Arizona State 9
Hawaii 15.5

Troy State 11
Florida International PICK

Central Mishitgan 6
Central Florida 9.5 (3 home field advantage)
Virginia Tech 5
LSU 5.5
Oklahoma 1

Brigham Young 17
 
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Rex: If you are ever in a jam for magazines/info let us know in here, I am sure there are many of us who would do are best to get you what you needed. I have been in Vegas 3x's since June for Poker Tourns could have easily gotten you those magazines, just let us know!
 
Counselor: Miami offense is suspect at best; I tend to favor the UNDER but I can't forget how bad CMU has been defensively at times as well... Pass...

Thanks Cash, appreciate it... GL everyone...
 
CollegeKingRex said:
I don't care what anyone says, that's the most talented team in the country when healthy. I don't know how they lost twice this season.
Click to expand...

Miles has always found a way to drop two games a season since he's been at LSU. And going off of your coaches comment (if you haven't read the threads I made), Miles to Mishitgan and Pelini to Nebraska.

GL Rex, I will likely be on Cent Mich w/ you.

(btw, i finally tried some woodford reserve like you recommend... good stuff)
:cheers:
 
Sir Rex,
Please provide your thought concerning the mizzu / ou total. seems like they will get there with both o's being powerful. ou's def is great against the run and ok against the pass. my perspective shows ou's secondary overused since most teams are having to pass to get back in the game.
mizzu's def looks to be smoke and mirrors... the first game was 41-31 with mizzu getting a late td...even without this 41-24 is 65....THANK YOU FOR YOUR EFFORT !!!!!!
 
Goob - Gun to my head I would bet the OVER. But nothing too big. I like the side plenty more because I think the Mizzou defense is better than you do. They gave up 41 but remember four turnovers played a large part.
 
Rex -

You watching CMU? They look like they should run Miami O out of the building, but LEFevour has thrown 2 picks, and the Chip defense has dropped 2 INT's. Still a 7-0 lead, but man, this should be over already.

On Va Tech, UCF, and Fla Atl as well. :shake:
 
That pk looks juicy considering how the 1H played out...Any other conference I'd be on it, but this is the MAC...
 
I am in awe of your pics. Everyone I have used is a win. What can I say but thanks for sharing your analysis. You are quite the capper. Thanks again!
:cheers:
 
By the way Flor Atlantic just went up 28-12 near the end of the 3rd. For the record I see a demoralized Oregon losing to Oregon State. They will have big troubles moving the ball! Now 35-12 in the 4th!!!
Great Pick Rex :tiphat:
 
Last edited:
am I the only one that comes to this thread puts *ctrl + F* (Find) the word 'big' in this thread and that becomes super auto-tail. If I am the only one, you guys should try it.

Nice day Rexy. Bring it thru the bowl games!
 
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