Saturday's CFB...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Sup fellas...

Another profitable (hopefully) weekend lies ahead.

Lost a smidge last week; first losing week since the middle of September and the second of the whole season... a couple of big halftime bets made it better than it looked.

Off to a 0-1 start this week and it was a big bet too. Still scratching my head trying to figure out how V-Tech spit that lead up. I don't think much of BC but trying to beat a Boston sports team right now is like pissing your money into the fan....

To Saturday..

I won't be talking about every game this week like usual - I'll skip the ones I am passing.... If you guys have a question about it, feel free to ask it in the thread and I'll give you a paragraph of what I think as time permits throughout the day...

I will be going to the shop before 7 Eastern Saturday morning - anything you want to know before then and I will answer it immediately... If it's after about 8 Eastern - then I'll try to check back every half-hour or so but no promises.... tomorrow is one of the craziest days of the year and I'll be "in the weeds" for about 14 hours....


I still think UConn is a fraud. I saw '4' earlier and went ahead and bet - I might be wrong but USF has a QB that will make plays and a defense much better than the Huskies saw last week (U of L's sorry bunch, which still shut them down for 3-plus quarters)... The backlash of the cheating incident last week has been a distraction, for sure, and the extra day of prep doesn't make up for it.

The play: South Florida -4 for a medium bet. I also think it will be under the total by a LOT... If the total goes up, I will bet UNDER 45.5 (or 45 at post)....

Can they make the total high enough in Lafayette? I say no, as Northwestern basically scoring on all of the other Little 9 teams (outside of OSU and Mishitgan) - meanwhile, same can be said for the Boilers.

The play: OVER 64.5 for a big bet

Ball State in a great spot here. Illy sure to be down after the tough loss to Michigan and the Cards always get the cash away from Muncie these days (11-1 ATS last 12) and Davis and his 20 TD's and 3 picks should be much less mistake-prone than the Illinois duo at QB. WHile athletic, they are young and mistake-prone. THis is a lot of points and hungry Cards can put themselves into position to get MAC at-large bid (there won't be four like last year, lol)...

The play: Ball State plus 14 for (close to) a medium bet and ML for a regular small bet.

Michigan names the score. How bad it will be, I'm not sure yet. And I won't bet until I get better info that those more informed about the Big 10 than me go ahead and bet the game at the store.... Though I would like to hear Bjorks, Big Al, Hunt and other fans of each side's thoughts....

There has been good money on both sides of the CMU/Kent game but I am more inclined to forgive CMU's egg (70 to Clemson?????) last week because they have been a cash-cow against MAC foes the last month. In my mind they are in the driver's seat to get to Detroit and I guess the only thing stopping them would be a loss tomorrow and one in Kalamazoo, along with some other help to get Testicle Tech there for the first time. Still Edelman broke his arm in BG game and that leave a true frosh (Morgan) at QB for the Flashes - perhaps - and Kent is minus-10 in turnovers. With CMU 9-2 SU in last 11 road games, don't mind laying less than a FG here.

The play: Central Mishitgan -2.5 for a big bet.

Not sure they can make the total high enough in Tulsa either. Walters will almost assuredly be on the UNDER so I have not bet it yet. But when you talk about each defense yielding 500 yards and 40 ppg (more or less), then you can't be scared to go over a total lower than that.

The play: No bet yet. Will be OVER anything less than 75 for a medium bet.

Back in a bit with the next third (or so) of games and bets...

:cheers:
 
GL CKR - I am confident that Ball St. will get theirs through the air, but I can't trust them to contain Mendenhall and co. Decided to take the over instead.
 
Thanks fellas. I'll have some more in the mornin. Gotsta hit the hay. Fucking horses and footsies moving earlier (Thanks again, Walters, for pulling out the Friday bets).... have my head hurting and numbers dancing in my head....
 
good luck bro.

Michigan is a no play for myself. Henne and Hart might not play, althought it probably won't matter. Michigan might put the foot on the brakes with MSU on deck...Lloyd never covers big spreads, on the flip side Minny is that bad....so no touch for me...gl whatever u decide, a case can definitely be made for both sides.
 
Walters came in last night and plowed into Southern Cal. While I am aware this is the first time USC is catching points in 51 straight games (!) - and the last time they caught points was in the 2003 season opener, when they blanked Auburn 23-0 on the road as a 3-point dog. In regular season games, they have not even been favored by less than six since then!!!

That said, Sanchez is no Carson Palmer or Matt Leinart, and Oregon's offense is as explosive as they've seen. With Pour-It-On Pete and his overaggressive defense, there could be problems with Dixon and his Vince Young-like abilities.

The play: Oregon -2.5 for a medium bet.

ETG - No opinion on La. Tech. Going from Ruston to Logan is as nightmarish as they come. That said, I'm not trying to make USU win a game until they actually do it.

Florida coming off a rough game (Kentucky is physical; since when???) in Lexington while Jorja is off rest. Note that while Florida wins these games more times than not, they are close. The last five have been by seven or less (28 points total) and I like Stafford's matchup against the young UF defense. Moreno pounds away and moves the chains and keeps Tebow and Co. off the field.

The play: Jorja plus 7.5 for a medium bet.

Another C-USA shootout in Huntington. Rice scoring in bunches and their defense, when not forcing turnovers, are allowing points just the same... Marshall's defense not much better and the Turd have been without their stud D-lineman all season. First one to 40 wins? Maybe.

The play: OVER 69.5 for a big bet.

UCLA has lost on the field 13 times as a road favorite under Dorrell. Brink torched the Bruin secondary for 405 yards passing in the Rose Bowl last season, and Wazzou won outright. Don't be surprised if it happens again.

The play: Wazzou plus 6 and ML for a combined medium bet

Ohio State just keeps winning but their offense is going to struggle this week in Happy Valley. OSU yet to be tested and Penn State beat this bunch two years back with what I considered to be a lesser group. Note PSU 19-1 last 20 straight up at home.

The play: Penn State plus 3.5 medium and ML small.

The bye week for UTEP concerns me a little, but Houston is the better team overall, and this crucial C-USA West battle could come down to big plays - and the Cougs have more cogs in the arsenal to do it.

THe play: Houston -5.5 for a medium bet.

Can Cal really lose three straight? It's quite possible. The Sun Devils are unbeaten and firing on all cylinders at home. That being said, the schedule stiffens tonight. Cal, Oregon, UCLA and USC are the next four. Will they go unbeaten? Prolly not. But a deflated Cal is certainly beatable, especially with Erickson getting a bye week to get healthy and implement some new stuff. Torain is out for the year but the Sun Devils still have Herring and enough offense to stay ahead of Cal.

The play: Arizona State -3 for a medium bet.

I'll take a crack at teh Hawaii OVER. Can they make it high enough? Hawaii coming off the bye and even though the last two meetings have yielded "just" 77 and 79 points, note that both offenses are more advanced now than in the last two years.

The play: OVER 79 in Honolulu.

Middle Tennessee is the best (yes, I said best) Sun Belt team. So even though UNT is just 1-1 at home this season, if the Raiders don't fumble and bumble it away, they will run this sorry bunch off the field. But hell, they forced seven turnovers last week and STILL lost 45-7 to Troy!!!

The play: MTSU -12.5 for a big bet.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Middle Tennessee is the best (yes, I said best) Sun Belt team. So even though UNT is just 1-1 at home this season, if the Raiders don't fumble and bumble it away, they will run this sorry bunch off the field. But hell, they forced seven turnovers last week and STILL lost 45-7 to Troy!!!

The play: MTSU -12.5 for a big bet.
Click to expand...


Rex, have to disagree here, what about TROY? Do you lean to Tenn or SoCar?
 
Sir Rex,
Any thoughts on Kansas..TaM is fallin apart at the seams..i know they are at home and all..kansas is makin me a believer more every week. going to the buffs last week was impressive. KU D can stop the running game of Tam...my grandparents could get a rush on the Tam off line...please let me know...thanks for your effort !!!!!
 
ETG - We'll see when they play in Troy on Nov. 20th... I like Tennessee's team a bit better (its offense) than USC but hard to ignore all of the negative trends working against UT today. I passed.

Goob - I'm not trying to beat Kansas, and in fact, have cashed with them 2 of the last 3 weeks (either game or 2H)... but Ayyunem is the best team they've seen yet and until I see it about A&M, all that talk about falling apart is greatly exaggerated to me...
 
GL Rex - I do agree SF is the better team in that matchup. My concern is their OL injuries and the difficulty they had picking up Rutgers blitzes and will there be any carryover of that today. UConn defense is not bad though SOS is certainly an argument. I'm thinking under may be a good play here. Like the Purdue over today as well.

South Florida
Date Pos Player Injury Status
10/25 3:15am C Nick Capogna Knee missed last game, upgraded to available to play but may be limited.
10/25 3:14am OG Matt Huners Knee missed last game, downgraded to expected to miss.
10/23 3:15am OT Walter Walker Leg expected to miss 2-4 weeks.
10/18 5:51pm WR Taurus Johnson Ankle expected to miss 2 weeks.
Connecticut
Date Pos Player Injury Status
10/24 7:35am OG Alex LaMagdelaine Ankle injured last game, upgraded to probable.
10/22 4:50am FB Anthony Davis Undisclosed missed last game, "?".
 
Last edited:
The bye week for UTEP concerns me a little, but Houston is the better team overall, and this crucial C-USA West battle could come down to big plays - and the Cougs have more cogs in the arsenal to do it.

THe play: Houston -5.5 for a medium bet.
Click to expand...

My local has -3.5...:new_shocked:


:4_12_12:
 
Cruz: I made Akron the favorite. When I saw them betting Akron, I assumed it was academic that they'd get there.

I passed the game and am glad I did...

That being said, I just noticed I made Iowa the favorite and for some reason I didn't bet that either. Shit.

Counselor: Not sure what the deal is there but I'd lay 3 -120 for a pretty big bet.
 
Picked up UTEP +6. Like them at home in a shootout. They don't turn the ball over like Houston. GO Miners...DIG!
 
I'm listening to Middle Tennessee. They are scoring in bunches. Up 23-7 early in the 2nd. Dominating so far! Game is broadcast over Yahoo for anyone to listen to.
 
Wild game.
30-21 with 33 seconds to go in the half. That could be an eternity in this game. N. Texas takes a knee so its half time. G L everyone. Thanks for the pics and analysis Rex
 
And now a T D Middle Tenn by 48 -28. Middle Tenn playing well on both sides of the ball! Still about 9 minutes to play!
 
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