Saturday's CFB...

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Well, tough one Friday with Louisville spitting the bit against UConn.

I read that mess of the in-game and the differing arguments. While the call was an awful one, in the end, each team had their chances and once U of L got up 17-7, they've got to find a way to hang on. Didn't happen. Looks like they're headed for 6-6 or so. A very dull game for the most part.

OK, onto Saturday's card and hopefully another winning week. Things have been going pretty well here as of late.

Not sure how Syracuse can keep laying points to people. Barfalo figures to be more motivated and should play hard for 60 minutes. Same can't be said for Orangemen. But I missed the six, and there's little value in the Bulls now.

Lean to Miami O but was hoping for downward progression in the line and it didn't work out that way. I like the RedCocks on the field but not sure if they can cover a touchdown or not against rejuvenated Owl group off two straight wins for the first time since 2002...

West Virginia can prolly name the score against Messy State at home. And while all the BCS stuff is important, I don't see them trying to embarass this team - not with bigger conference fish to fry in coming weeks. Should end up close to the number. I think both WV home games have flown over the total, so that might be worth a look if you think MSU can sustain some drives.

Not too sure how to read the Penn State/IU game. I have friends I respect on both sides of that one. The Hoosiers have been better at home and are one win away from the magical six it takes for bowl eligibility. Penn State has been abysmal on the road, as well. Are they more talented to cover a touchdown in this spot? I lean to IU but will watch the first half...

Every tout I've seen is all over Clemson. Good. Let them bet them up. Central is now the best team in the MAC and are in full-fledged steamroll mode now that LeFeveour is making better decisions. The Chips are still a bit banged up and people will look at the early-season bloodbaths in Lafayette and Lawrence and think the Clemson price is cheap. While those two backs might go wild, I think the CMU defense has shored things up a little.

THe play:Central Michigan plus 17.5 for a medium bet.

NOTE - I have NOT bet this game yet. The best price my people have is 17. I am waiting for that extra hook. If the 17s start to disappear, I will grab the 17 for a medium bet.

Northern Illinois sucks. No opinion at all in Madison. Ask Fondy and the Wisconsin gang.

Arkansas laying it in Oxford, where the Rebs always seem to get the cash as a home SEC dog. Not sure if they can stop these two RB's, though, but they will fight to the end. Should be close to the number.

There's plenty to see about the Vandy/USC game in other threads. I don't like Vandy's mindset at this point (thanks RSMS, confirming that earlier this week) and not sure whether the price is right or not. Lean to the dog but won't bet unless it gets up to three-plus scores...

Wake an awful favorite but they sure seem like a better team than Navy. I made it 3 so no opinion at all. Extra rest and prep for Wake but in the big picture this game means littke; Navy is going to San Diego and Wake's bowl hopes hinge on its league success.

GT has no reason to blow out Army but they might do it by accident anyways. SOme of the Army wins at home were as misleading as any games I've seen all year.

Air Force's revitalization this season certainly allows me to credit their new coach for doing a nice job of getting them to buy into his new system. Wyoming off a puzzling 3-point effort against New Mexico in a game where weather was a factor. I am sitting this one out but I will certainly check the box before deciding how much to bet on NM. If Wyoming looks good in this spot, I'll prolly load up. See NM/SDST writeup later on Saturday morning...

I'll start with Ball and Western in the morning after I talk to a couple of friends and get their thoughts.

GL!

:cheers:
 
rex,

not trying to be a dick, but Navy actually had one more day to prepare than Wake Forest did...at any rate, best of luck to you tomorrow...
 
Thanks fellas. Yeah, Pags... Disregard the Navy/Wake comment I guess. No real opinion on that one either way.

At the shop, so will come with other writeups as time allows...
 
Ball State has played its best football on the road this season. I don't necessarily agree with the line but I would not be surprised if they won today in Kalamazoo. Matchups favor them and if it turns into a high-scoring game, they should be able to have an even better chance. First one to 40 wins? Pass

Kansas making its first "real" road trip of the season. A chilly Boulder awaits the Jayhawks in what could be a pivotal Big 12 North clash. Until KU loses I find it hard to try to buck them but laying points here might not be the right thing. Pass for now but will watch the first half with great intent.

Dr. Bob and the gang are on the guests here in Houston but what makes anyone enthusiastic about catching less than a field goal with a Memphis team that just flat sucks? Rice has played hard and its defense has been causing a lot of turnovers in consecutive covers against two of the best C-USA teams. I'll pass but gun to the head, I'd have the Owls.

Not sure where SMU gets off laying this kind of number to a Tulane team that continues to improve under new coach Bob Toledo. Sure, the Green Wave ain't been winning to this point but I expect the results to start coming eventually for two teams headed in opposite directions.

The play: Tulane plus 6 and ML for a combined medium bet.

Reno off a devastating OT loss on the blue field while Utah State has had two weeks to prep following the loss in Honolulu. Perhaps this is where the Ags get off the schnide? Pass.

Tennessee has quietly emerged as a solid two-loss team that now controls its own destiny in the SEC East. The Vols are playing thier last road game until Nov. 24, when they travel to Lexington, as South Carolina, Arkansas and Vandy all visit beforehand (as does homecoming foe U-La-La). Fat Phil 10-2 against Bammer but the home team has won the last three. Has Wilson improved enough to shake off last year's 13-for-29 (158 yards) numbers and guide the Tide? Not sure. The only play would be on improving Tennessee but my numbers don't justify it. Pass.

A couple of guys said this early in the week and I'll echo it now: Where do they come off making Nebraska the favorite against anyone that breathes right now? I would not be shocked if they lost out and I certainly think Ayyunem should be able to do whatever it wants to on offense.

THe play: Texas A&M ML for a medium bet.

Can they make it high enough in Ames? I don't think so. Hide the women and children.

The play: Oklahoma -29 for a big bet.

Can they make the total high enough in Columbia? Yes, Tech has gotten better on defense but I tend to remember the game in Stillwater as standing out more than any other. This should be a repeat. Last team who has it, wins.

THe play: Texas Tech/Mizzou OVER 75 for a medium bet.

Skipping Cal/UCLA. No opinion.

Southern Cal laying yet another hefty tariff. What do they have, one cover all season? ND is no kind of juggernaunt but I've got the cash when betting on the Irish the last two weeks and I'll go back this week now, with the QB change. Note Sanchez is in for USC and I expect the Irish defense to force mistakes... Upset? Prolly not.

The play: Notre Dame plus 17.5 for a medium bet

Where did they come up with this total for Miami/Florida State? Did someone think they were playing a doubleheader in Tallahassee today? FSU has won the last two but lost six in a row before that. Last season, they combined for three yards rushing total on 51 attempts. In the last six years, the games have been decided by a total of 23 points, with every game being decided by eight or less. So with points at a premium, I'd side with the dog but I don't like their chances of ever scoring against an FSU defense with extra prep time.

THe play: UNDER 43 for a big bet (just popped up at ThePig about 830 am Eastern Saturday)... Would bet under 41.5 or higher the same...

Rain in the forecast in Seattle but it shouldn't affect either team's offense. The number is much higher this week after the efforts of each team last weekend. But Washington's lack of a decent defense won't be exposed by these Ducks, who are now missing three starting receivers. With USC up next, you can count on Bellotti just wanting to get out of town with a "W".

The play: Washington plus 13 for a medium bet.

I had Michigan State two years ago in Columbus and wrote that loss down as one of the worst beats of the year, if not THE worst. It was a game that John L's crew dominated until the blocked FG returned for six right before halftime. Still, a lot to like about this Sparty bunch. In 98, Jump brought to my attention that D'Antonio was on the MSU staff when they went to C-Bus and won on the field. After a YSU stint, he joined Tressel's staff in time to win a National title before taking the UC job, and now, the MSU job. The Spartans have been rapidly improving offensively and should provide the stiffest test yet on that side of the ball for the Buckeyes. With this large tariff looking ever difficult to cover as top-ranked teams continue to fall by the wayside, expect a nip-and-tuck battle to the end.

THe play: Michigan State plus 19.5 for a medium bet and ML for a very small bet.

Hoos have quietly won six in a row and have yet to yield more than three TD's in a game. But Terps are off rest and those running backs will be the best the Cavs have seen to this point. UVA continues to struggle ATS on the road and doesn't have enough weapons to stay within covering distance here.

THe play: Maryland -4 for a small bet.

No way to figure out which teams show up when BG plays Kent. Pass. All I expect is a lot of zaniness and prolly a lot of points.

Can they make the total high enough in Orlando? With this being a key game for each team to try to stay alive in teh conference race, expect good efforts on both sides. Rain is in the forecast; will it affect the total?

No opinion on NC State/ECU.

Arizona is as bi-polar as anyone in football. No clue. If it continues to climb though, I'll grab 14 with Stanford. Who is Arizona to lay DDs? The one time it happened up Stoops (vs. Washington in 2005) they were clobbered 38-14 on teh field.

Lean to San Jose, as the Spartans are improving, as you would expect, under Tomey. Tafralis has thrown for 300-plus yards in the last four for SJST and this appears to be a big tariff.

THe play: San Jose State plus 14 for a medium bet.

Note that Houston may not yet be in Birmingham for tonight's game, as they are travelling this morning. But if their offense shows up and doesn't turn it over, I expect as many points this week as they had last week in come-from-behind win against Rice.

Well, another big game in October on Saturday in Lexington. They are messing with the Keeneland meet but I'm sure most people don't mind - especially if the Cats can prove last week's win over LSU wasn't a fluke. I think that's exactly what will happen and the more I hear people talking about Florida as a certain winner today, the more I like UK. Still, the most appealing play is the UNDER. This total looks way too high to me and UK going to multiple overtimes buoys the number. They were the tougher team down the stretch last week and I expect them to have a chance to win it on the field in a low-scoring tussle late.

The play: UNDER 64 in Lexington for a medium bet.

Boise laying a large number in Ruston. I expect the LT defense to keep them in it throughout.

THe play: LaTech plus 15.5 for a small bet

Back in a bit for the rest...
 
Purdue is a lean but at this price I won't play. This game could easily fall seven. Hard to tell how Boilers react after two losses to top two league teams.

No thoughts on Ohio/Toledo; the Bobcats appear to be a little better at this point but the Glass Bowl is a tough place to win for MAC foes.

Texas in the middle of steamrolling the lesser foes on their slate. Baylor is next up. Still, at this price, I'm inclined to pass.

Lean to Okie State today at home laying less than a field goal to K-State. Nothing yet but looking for more input from those who have a stronger opinion than I.

How will Cincy respond to a loss? Not eager to lay nearly DD's on the road against rested Pitt to find out.

Michigan will be without Hart today, most likely. That being said, I still think the Illini have a large hill to climb to get to the elite of the league; and they're not quite there yet. That offense is likely to give the UM defense fits for awhile but the Wolverines were supposed to struggle last week, and instead ran Purdue off the field.

The play: Michigan PICK for a medium bet.

Passing New Mexico State/Idaho. Note Shallow Hal has beaten a I-A team by more than a TD once since 2004...

Aubbie has won and covered four straight and is quickly emerging as a viable SEC West threat. The Aubbie defense is yielding just 16 ppg and less than 280 yards. LSU is a solid defensive team that should make it hard for Cox to generate much offense. UNDER worth a look here, too. And don't be surprised if Aubbie...

THe plays: Aubbie plus 10 for a medium bet; ML for a small bet; UNDER 42.5 for a big bet

Rocky's 3-3-5 gave Wyoming fits last week and UNM has won six straight against SD State and got the cash each time - and quite simple put, SD State just isn't very good.

THe play: New Mexico -8.5 medium. This will likely be a big bet at anything less than -10; will wait for the Wyoming game box to confirm.

Can't get a feel on Vegas and CSU's last win was last year against this team was their last win period.

To the "Pecker-In-The-Jigsaw" Sun Belt.... Nothing stands out except for Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders have great coaching and leadership and their true frosh QB Dasher (410 total yards last week at Memphis!) is a big reason behind three straight covers for MTSU. Also note MTSU has won and covered last 4 meetings against the Injuns, with the last 3 by 28 or more! ASU D-Line is 115th in sacks and 118th in tackles for loss).

THe play: Middle Tennessee -2 for a big bet

GL!
 
Good luck, Rex. Joining you on UNM -8 and have a bid in on Auburn +10.

Also on with OU and Washington. Already had those locked in.

Looking at Michigan St and Notre Dame but the line has moved down from where I would like it. Lost some value.

Let's get the money.
 
GL today CKR - any concern for Tulane being their 3rd straight road game?I like them too but this scares me away a bit.
 
rex gl today. I am on SJST and I love NM to roll the Aztecs, I think NM is one of those under the radar teams from the small conferences, great balance on O
 
We never had a shot in either game, Panos...


Seen enough. everyone in the western world is on Troy. So be it.

The play: North Texas plus 24 for a medium bet.
 
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