Saturday's CFB...

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Should be another lovely day for college football - the Keeneland meet is underway and there are five stakes races so it's also a final Breeders' Cup tuneup for some of the best horses in the world. I was up til after the gotdamn Manny homer capping the horses for today.

Last week, buoyed by the outright Maryland win, I had another solid week. Had it not been for the Chargers, I would have won every bet on Sunday as well.

Back to the amateurs...

Nothing really interested me much during the week. I had three halftime plays; two of which lost. Kentucky in the 2H the other night stung a little, as they pretty much controlled the third quarter but could make up no ground thanks to USC's second defensive touchdown of the night.

Nicholson will prolly play for Northern but no thanks after the turnover barrage in Mount Pleasant last week. Pass.

West Virginia in a fairly dangerous spot here after the loss to South Florida but with an extra day to prepare, you'll quickly see this ain't Louisville we're talking about here. Talentwise, it's the best against the worst. On carpet, the difference is only magnified.

The play: West Virginia -27 for a big bet.

Rutgers off the loss is not a team I want to go-against, as Schiano likely had them looking past the Turtle and ahead to this one. On the other hand, I've been through with trying to beat Cincinnati since about Week 3 - I just want to get their power rating close to being right! I'll watch a half tonight before I start my (Jonathan) Bender...

Fondy and the Wisconsin kids can answer this: How many times have I bet on Bret Bielema and the Badgers since he took over and has guided them to a 17-1 record? Exactly once. Well - today might be as good a spot as any.... Wisconsin doesn't play for style points; they play for victories. And while Illinois is rapidly improving and the wins over IU and Penn State were a good start to Big 10 play, it is still Wisconsin we're talking about. I expect a Juice mistake or two, and Wisky to do just enough to pull it out.

THe plays: Wisconsin plus 3 and ML each totalling a medium bet

Indiana has gotten shellacked by Minnesota each of the last two seasons. But this ain't Glenny Mason's Gophers. No, this bunch will have plenty of trouble trying to stop Kellen Lewis and the suddenly high-octane Hoosier offense (?). The defense recorded nine sacks in Iowa City and this win will get IU on the precipice of that coveted sixth win and bowl eligibility. Still, two touchdowns? PASS.

Bacher has yet to throw a TD pass since Tyrell Sutton went down. Still, MSU laid this same number two years back, and Northwestern went into Lansing and administered a 49-14 thumping. Coach is different this time but the situation is similar, with Sparty having come off a heartbreaking road loss (OSU two years back, Wisconsin this time). MSU easily the better team, but Northwestern makes a habit of getting the cash in these spots.

The play: Northwestern plus 17 for a small bet - and 1/2 of that on Northwestern ML...

Miami Florida 1-6 last seven ATS on the road, and now they lay a touchdown to former coach Butchie and the Heels? Sorry, can't recommend a 'take' either, as these guys are still too young and mistake-prone for my taste. Expect Wright to make enough plays, and Cane defense to force more INT's from Yates. Will consider laying six if it gets down there.

Despite Central Michigan's 18-7 win over Ball last year, games in this series have been marked by high scores. The losing team averaged 27.8 points in six games from 2000-05, and today's game shapes up as an offensive display. CMU was the first team to effectively slow Nate Davis last season. And though Frank Edmonds filled in admirably at RB last week - it was Barfalo. The Cards will likely miss MiQuale Lewis today much more. Also, don't be deceived by Central Michigan's mediocre 2-3 record. Their three losses were to teams that have a combined record of 13-0 (Kansas, Purdue and North Dakota State).... So while Ball is an emerging threat in the MAC, this is still a hefty tariff.

The play: Central Michigan plus 13 for a small bet.

Not sure if there will ever be a better spot for Vandy to beat Aubbie. The Dores are 8-1 last 9 as a road 'dog', and catch the Tigers on the plains after draining win in Gainesville. Aubbie also travels to Fayetteville next week. Nickson should be able to help Vandy move the sticks and control the clock... Vandy's front seven has allowed less than 3.5 yards per carry and only three scores, and Tommy T is just 3-8 last 11 as a home fave.

The play: Vandy plus 8 for a medium bet.

Situational play, albeit small, on BG this week. BC in midst of lesser foes, and Notre Dame looms on the horizon. BG 7-1 last 8 as a DD-dog.

THe play: Bowling Green plus 20 for a small bet.

Passing on the Shit Bowl in Buffalo.

Passing on the Shit Bowl II in West Point.

Michigan seems to have problems with teams that have good overall speed and those which run the spread offense. Eastern Michigan doesn't have enough speed to make it matter, regardless. Hart gashes and dashes for 200-plus and the Wolves finally roll in a non-conference game.

The play: Michigan -29.5 for a medium bet.

Lots of people like Wyoming this week, and while I think the Pokes can win, I also don't see reason to make them a FG favorite in what will certainly be a low-scoring game. First one to 20 gets the cash.

The play: UNDER 40.5 in Laramie for a medium bet

Okie State did just enough on offense to beat Tejas Tech and then stifled Sammy Houston last week, but this trip to College Station won't be a fun one (remember their last roadie, at Troy?); and with line under a touchdown, not scared to lay it with Fran and his powerful offense, which shouldn't miss a beat today.

THe play: Ayyunem -6 for a medium bet

U-ab is awful but I can't go out and start laying almost three touchdowns with Messy State.

Miami O has been banged up since the season opening win in Muncie. But now those backups who have been playing are slowly growing into their roles. The losses to Cincy and Colorado don't look so bad anymore, and the win last week against the Cuse might be a sign that the RedCocks have turned the corner. Jarvis is going to get his yards, and Edelman can help them put up points but this Kent offense is no Ball State, and we saw what Miami did to that league foe. That's a LOT of points.

The plays: Miami O plus 9 and ML for a combined big bet.

Who is K-State to start laying a field goal-plus against a bitter in-state rival that thrashed it 39-20 last season? It was a similar spot, as K-State also beat Texas the week before in 2006. The Jayhawks have played nobody of note, but have thrashed them all just the same. Now, off the bye, gotta think the Fat Man's team has all the confidence in the world to go into Manhattan and pull off the "upset". I make Kansas the favorite. Don't see the point spread coming into play.

THe play: Kansas ML for a medium bet.

Louisiana Tech plays hard for new coach Dooley and they don't make many mistakes. Ole Miss 1-7-1 as a home fave since start of 2004; and they rank dead last in defense in the SEC.

The play: Lousy Tech plus 13 medium.

Not interested in Colorado after the big upset last week over Oklahoma but the win was no accident; that defense really curtailed the Sooner offense throughout - especially after the intermission. Kudos to Hawkins for what looks to be another fine turnaround. But not trying to lay a big price on the road after that one.

No opinion in Clemson; revenger for the Tigers but neither offense looks capable of doing much here. Dog or nothing for me. If I see six, I'll bet it small.

To the Cotton Bowl, for the Red River Shootout. Hate to see both teams coming in off losses, as I have no idea how either will recover. In spots like this, a 'take' seems to be in order. Can the Horns double Kelly as effectively as CU did?

THe play: Texas plus - have not bet it yet. Will bet once it gets to 13. If it starts going back, I'll take 11.5 for a small bet.

Don't see a way Nebraska ever really stops the Mizzou offense. The bye likely didn't help the Tigers, though, who were rolling beforehand. Meanwhile, I'm sure Cosgrove will come up with something different than we saw in home wins over Ball and Iowa State the last two weeks. That might keep it close, but the number looks low here.

The play: Mizzou -5.5 for a medium bet.

Interesting to see how Penn State reacts after road losses in Ann Arbor and Champaign but I expect a good effort today against a banged up Iowa team that continues to underachieve. The Nittany Lion defense keeps them in it early and the offense pulls away late.

THe play: Penn State -9 for a medium bet.

Sorry NC State is 0-4 ATS & SU after committing 17 turnovers for new coach Tommy O'Brien. Xavier Lee gives FSU another threat at QB and the FSU defense should have little trouble against pedestrian Wolfpack offense. Note Chuck Amato won't likely want to take it easy, either, in his first game against his ex-team. But FSU awful laying big numbers lately, so I pass.

Lots of love for UGA around here. And while the Dogs have a revenge angle they are also going into Knoxvul to face a healthy and rejuvenated Vol squad that's had two weeks to hear about how it's dead in the SEC East race. UT is 0-10 as a fave at home since 2004 - but guess what? The Vols ain't the favorite after Dr. Bob finished up. I expect Walters to come with Tenny, but I already got my piece.

The play: Tennessee ML for a medium bet.

No bet on Reno/Fresno. Still don't have any feel for what's going on; Reno always cashes at home but I made Fresneck a 1-point favorite. Pass.

Bama off two straight losses but can't recommend them today against Houston, either. Cougs should have enough offense to trade points with Tide, which is last in SEC with five sacks.

Lean to Idaho getting almost a touchdown in San JOse; note Spartans had just 15 yards on the ground against I-AA UC Davis last week. Check the status of Jackson and Enderle (latter pulled after UH int'd five passes) before betting Vandals but they are the only side to have.

Had this one circled on Sunday morning after digesting what Cincy did to San Diego State on the road. Colly State hasn't won a game in 364 days, so who are they to lay almost two touchdowns... On the other hand, SDST gave up 400 yards last week - BEFORE HALFTIME... Revenge-minded Rams still the best winless team in America; a label they shed today.

The play: Colorado State -12.5 for a big bet.

Anyone who's smart enough to figure out which Arizona and which Oregon State will show up today is much smarter than I. Pass.

SC 0-4 in last four of role in laying 30 or more, and no reason for "Pour It On Pete" to run it up against overmatched Stanford, but respected first-year coach Jim Harbaugh.

The play: Stanford plus 41 for a small bet.

Note WMU and Akron each show a propensity of going over the total; not sure if Akron will slow Hiller and the Bronco passing game at all. Each of the next four for WMU are against division foes, however, so this could be a look-ahead spot. Pass.

Maryland coming off the big win last week (as are the Jackets) and if I had to play, it would be on the Terps. Steffy's status is in doubt - and with the early start, I won't likely get any more relevant information before kickoff. I'll watch teh first half for possible halftime options... Tim? Anyone else?

Mike Leach has had two weeks to get his defense in shape to face another conference foe after literally spitting it up at Okie State 14 days ago. Not sure what relationship he has with Gene Chizik because on paper, this looks like a colossal mismatch. ISU too many turnovers to stay inside the inpost. Tech 6-1 all-time vs. Cyclones.

THe play: T-Tech -24.5 for a medium bet

Vastly underrated game in Greenville could well decide the C-USA East winner. I have people I know and respect on both sides here. Gun to my head I go with Skippy and the home dog but UCF is tough, tough, tough. Pass - at least til halftime.

People are going to think I am nuts; and I also think I'm nuts. When I did the work on the Florida/LSU game, my final number came out to SIXTEEN. Shocking, I suppose. UF doesn't lose back-to-back regular season games - hardly ever - but this LSU unit appears to have received a proper wake-up call in the first half of the Tulane game last week. While Florida has some playmakers, this Tiger defense is going to be tough to score on at home and at night. Maybe it's close for awhile, but I don't see it staying that way.

The play: LSU -7 for a big bet.

Big step-up in class for Purdue tonight at home against Ohio State. The Buckeyes are slowly rounding into a top-flight national-title contender. The Boilers have done little wrong so far, however, and appear to be the real deal. Biggest game in the Tiller tenure? Maybe. Special teams keep Purdue in it til the end - then, who knows what happens.

The plays: Purdue plus 7.5 for a medium-plus bet and ML for a small bet (total of a big)

Notre Dame offense finally showed signs of life last week, and while I squirm at the situation (UCLA in a big revenger, shoulda won in S.B. last year and have a bye next week); I am starting to see enough signs of life out of the Domers that giving them 20-plus against anyone these days is now officially too much. Can't see a SU win but please don't get cute and bet UCLA in a ML parlay with all those other big favorites...

The play: Notre Dame plus 22.5 for a medium bet (actually I overshot it a little, so damn near a big bet).

Looked to play UNLV/AFA UNDER the total but I was thinking 46 or so - not 43.5 or 44... Pass.

Put your track shoes on in El Paso. Each offense outclasses the opposing defense and that means a lot of points.

THe play: OVER 72.5 for a medium bet in Tulsa/UTEP

Sorry Coug defense no match for Erickson, Carpenter and Sun Devil that's clicking at this point to the tune of 40 ppg. They'll match that today.

The play: Arizona State -9 for a medium bet.

See HawaiiGuy for GSFW update vs. Utah State. I'm sure you degenerates will all want to play it anyways, lol. I pass.

South Florida certainly down today for trip to FAU squad that's been below-par defensively as of late. Bulls off big win over WVU but this is a lofty number against an in-state rival.

THe play: Florida Atlantic plus 17 for a medium bet.

Trying to bet the Sun Belt, as my good friend Razor said, is akin to putting your pecker in a jigsaw. Nevertheless, here's what I came up with:

UNT/U-La-La OVER 67 - Two good offenses and new UNT HC Dodge is all about high scoring games.

Pass the rest of these games. I have no clue on how to handicap them all and believe it or not, my number was very close to the line used in all five shit games....

GL!

:cheers:
 
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Whether we agree or disagree, always enjoy reading your thoughs on all the games. Thanks for taking the time to share your insight each and every week. Best of luck this week.
 
Rex, Great stuff as usual. Big bet for me on the Texas game (homer yes)
I have a feeling Mack Brown is going to keep a short leash on Colt, any screw ups and we might see Chiles in early. Young cocky QB could jump start Texas in this big game. Good Luck everyone with yalls plays today.
 
Great thread as always Rex. CSU will be without both starting safties today for what it's worth. GL today.
 
Thanks J-Picks...

Cash: I guess it's too late to tell him to take 5 minutes before he goes and gets hitched to give me a report on the game. Good win for the Terps...

Some early surprises... but mostly it played about according to form...
 
Looks like your starting out great Rex. Great call on the Northwestern and Kansas ML. Wisconsin screwed you but looks like your going to have a profitable day. Nice job man
 
It's like anything else... Win a few more than I lose.... lose some bigguns but did bet LSU and Purdue 2nd half to make those basically medium bets.... and then when factoring in Northwestern, Tennessee and Miami O moneylines, it makes for another profitable day (though, when considering the time it takes to work for the numbers, go bet them, write this up for here, and sweat the first halves for possible 2H bets.... I'd be better off as an illegal immigrant working on the golf course) - or at least close to it...

Think I might have won $800????

Oh well... Beats the alternative....

Back atcha tomorrow...
 
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