CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Well, I brought it up in Friday's thread but I can bitch more if I want. Not sure how I lost that total in the Miami game Thursday, and what made it hurt more is that I dipped back in at halftime for some more.
Also, this is the first week I was able to take some time in the middle of the week to check out some stuff that's been posted from the Sunday coffee and line discussion up through dozens of picks and discussions (South Carolina/LSU? wow, what a thread)... Wow. Great stuff. Got me thinkin...
From the time I got sick of the Covers nonsense and went to work for Ken at PPP, then with Mark (BuryTheBook) and now Fonds and the gang here ... I can honestly say it took from the end of the 2003 season until now - three-and-a-half years - but this football forum has finally turned into what I (and all of our partnership and mod team, and most members)
envisioned since 2003 ... THE BEST place to discuss college football and investing in college football on all of the Web!
OK, mushy shit out of the way, let's get to the card. Traditionally, this weekend is one of my best of the year. One of the last ones where my ratings are well ahead of those who make the opening numbers. They start to tighten a bit from here on out - and in another week or two, the numbers will be awfully difficult and it will be a lot of situations, sandwiches, etc., that dictate who gets the cash from then until the bowls.
Syracuse is abysmal. I have the feeling this could be the week U of L opens up a can of whoopass on someone, but they ain't got the money yet, and I'm not trying to break the trend until Kragthorpe gets the ship righted there. Off a loss, tough to figure whether it takes U of L awhile to rebound or not. Pass.
Illinois is off to a good start and equaled their wins in the first two years of the Zooker Era but now they're gonna start making the Illini favorites on the road? Indiana has a QB that has helped the Hoosiers get to the top of the Big 10 in rushing offense (WHAT? lol) and I don't think Illinois is going to have an answer for him. They did slow down Mizzou in the second half (Mizzou has slowed itself down three times in the 2nd half though) but Daniel is no kind of mobile quarterback like Lewis is. This game is in Bloomington and I expect one of the best IU crowds in recent years, as these Hoosiers are 3-0 and sniffing bowl eligibility. There's no way that this game shouldn't be on ESPN over one of these other snoozers, and more importantly, there's no way Illinois can be the favorite. Take the
points and all the ML fun you want. Hoosier defense is opportunistic and Juice is still a mistake waiting to happen back there. IU's pass rush is greatly improved (17 sacks in three games) and Illinois is 2-18 SU in true roadies since 2003.
The play: Indiana ML and plus 3 for a big bet.
Dr. Bob fired away on Navy on the road Thursday - but I'm not convinced that's the right play. Sure, the Navy ran for 521 yards against Ball State and Duke has no firepower like that on offense... but QB Kaheaku-Enhada sprained both ankles last week and I don't see the motivation there to win by two touchdowns for the Navy. Not interested in laying it.
Hard to pick a side in Baylor/Buffalo battle. I like Morriss as a coach but the Bulls have played tougher foes to this point and that could pay off. Pass.
Look to Zipstar or one of the northeast Ohio cronies around here to give you insight to the Akron/Kent game. I made it a pick so taking points with the hosts seems appealing here. Carlton Jackson played well in Bloomington for the most part but Edelman is a dangerous dual threat QB, similar to the IU one that gave Akron fits last week.
Obviously, Boston College has to be considered as big of a surprise as any to start the season. Three wins, all in league play, have them poised to play for the league title in December. Big class drop to Army, but not as big as you might think, considering Army outplayed Wake last week. Pevoto might be out, which would make it tough to take Black Knights, but that defense has been very solid so far and is prolly a little underrated. I'll dip in if I can take 28, but nothing less.
Not sure what to make of Miami's game in Boulder this week. The RedCocks just got blasted at home by archrival Cincy and that's two tough losses in a row preceding a trip to altitude. With the offensive struggles of the Buffs, I can't try to lay it, but big injuries to Murphy and his backup, guys on the O-line, and a pair of backers, make it
difficult to take the points, as well.
Ball State has won two straight and should be brimming with confidence, now having won four straight road games. The last road loss was by a touchdown at unbeaten Michigan last November. That team was better than this Nebraska unit, so the Huskers better get up for this one in a hurry. I've noticed tons of newsletters and touts all over the favorite here. They assume that because Navy ran for 521 last week, that Nebraska can just ditch the chuck-and-duck and do the same thing Saturday. The early start time (11:30 am), the letdown after the USC loss, and some injuries to key players could open things up for Nate Davis and the Cardinal offense. I said I'd take four scores on Sunday and nothing has changed now.
The play: Ball State plus 23 for a medium bet.
Something tells me that Walters has been out dummying up BYU to slam into Air Force on Saturday. THat makes sense to me, as BYU has to eliminate turnovers (8 in the last 2 games) and penalties (25 last 2!) that sidetracked Cougars in losses at UCLA & Tulsa. Carney looks to be adjusting from option to Calhoun's shotgun without much trouble. Upstart Falcons have already beaten the two best teams in this league, and will be in MWC driver's seat with another upset... It might not happen but there's no reason they should be catching a dozen or so.
The play: Air Force plus 11.5 for a small bet.
Revenge for UCLA, which is certainly better than it showed last week? Or a rebound for Washington, which was stymied by great Ohio State defense? I was looking to take more than seven, so if this goes up into the two-score range look for me on the dog. But at 6 or so, it's a wait-and-see for possible (drunken) halftime possibilities (1015 Fox Sports Net
kick).
Solid Georgia secondary might be tested, as these sophomores ain't seen a passing game like Saban's J.P. Wilson-led one that has all kinds of playmakers that gave Arky fits last week. I like Georgia's toughness up front and they've had an extra week to take out some of the
sting of the South Carolina loss. This looks like it goes to the wire.
Florida seems to be a popular pick, and with their explosiveness and Ole Piss's lack of ability to contain an offense for more than one possession, I can't blame those interested in laying it. But even though the Gator speed can be devastating, they have also dropped seven in a row as a road favorite. I've been a part of three of those losses, and am not interested in a fourth. Pass.
I think I saw someone here say early in the week that Northwestern won't score at the Shoe on Saturday. If Tyrell Sutton doesn't play, then I'd be hard-pressed to argue with them considering the Wildcats just lost at home to Duke. At first glance this seems a little cheap but travel factors and the high number make it a no-bet for me. Will Bacher throw 50
times for no touchdowns again? Almost certainly not. And Fitzgerald was a player on the 1995 Northwestern team that lost in the pre-Big 10 season in a game it shouldn't, so he should not have a problem getting the Wildcats properly prepared for this one. Only home game in a five-week stretch for Ohio State? Pass.
Penn State looks to be a little better than Michigan this season but they haven't won against the Wolverines in more than a decade and I'm not going to try to buck this trend - not with the way PSU has lost in Ann Arbor the last two times. Wolves on the rebound after last week's resounding win? Do they ever play a road game? Pass.
Texas Tech laying less than a touchdown sure looks interesting. Okie State has been stricken with numerous injuries, having lost their rudder of a running back, a third-year center that's hurt, and benching a 20-game starter at quarterback. The Cowboys get an extra day to prepare for Tech, but this is the same team that trailed 41-10 at Troy State.
Meantime, Tech is 3-0 and hasn't been held to less than 45 points. Not convinced Tech will get off to a good start? Neither am I. The Raiders gave up 17 points on three consecutive Rice possessions, then turned around and got three turnovers and three three-and-outs in the next seven series. They gave up four straight touchdowns to UTEP in the first 20 minutes or so before putting on the clamps. Perhaps a second half play
is in order, as the Red Raiders have held their first three opponents to a total of 13 second-half points.
The play: Texas Tech -5.5 for a small bet (seen this team and their road follies before!)..
Notre Dame might be as bad as advertised, but I'm no big Michigan State fan and I sure don't understand how they can lay DD's in SOuth Bend against an Irish team that is purported to be "starting their season over" this week. Listen, it's been a rough go of it for Charlie Weis and gang lately, and I know ND is bad bad bad. But do you really think they won't come out fighting like a rabid dog on Saturday? If so, then you shouldn't be betting on college football. I missed the 13s that were out on Monday so I'm passing for now. But this line is obviously overadjusted on recent results.
Lean to Central Florida at anything less than seven at home against Memphis but the Tigers are off a virtual bye (I-AA), while UCF played a barnburner against Texas. Tough to see them coming with that emotion this week. Pass.
Don't know whether BC is that good or GT is overrated but I sure was wrong about the Jackets rolling last week. Didn't get to see much of that one... Virginia was able to really control the ball in a nice win in Chapel Hill. Can they duplicate the success against GT? Me thinks it will be tough for them to move it consistently but I really have my doubts about this Jacket offense at this point. Pass.
Colly State is the best winless team in America at this point, as they should have beaten Colorado and gave Cal all the Bears wanted the next week. This is a tough road trip, as Houston was competitive at Oregon and sleptwalked in New Orleans last week. The Cougars are my C-USA fave at this point and Dr. Bob also thought laying less than seven would be a good idea. No value in either side at this point for me; I made it 7.
Big move on Arizona Thursday afternoon. And while there are some decent factors working in the way of the dog, if DeSean Jackson is close to healthy, this could get ugly. Tedford won't likely forget the loss to UA from 2006 that kept them out of the Rose Bowl. With this being in Berkeley, all the Cal speed will be on display throughout and Bears should be able to contain Willie and UA offense that's struggling with turnovers. Still, Cal is 1-11-1 in its last 13 laying double digits. Pass.
Northern now goes to Moscow after tough loss at home to EMU in which turnovers did the Huskies in. Still, tough to envision the dogs losing to an Idaho unit that has had two former coaches "take it easy" on them a little in losses to USC and Wazzou. Good way for NIU to get off the shitter and into the win column after brutal losses to SIU and EMU. Expect a certain move on the dog Saturday...
The plays: NIU plus 3.5 (small) and ML (medium) each. Will likely hedge out of the ML play and scalp a small profit for a medium bet once this goes down to 2 or 1... and leave the plus 3.5 small as my only bet.
I like the effort I saw out of Temple last week - but I also liked that effort vs. Navy and I got bitch-slapped for betting them against Barfalo two weeks back. So I'll pass, especially considering this is a revenger for a BG team that Temple steamrolled last season for its only win in 27 games!
It's awfully tough to bet agianst West Virginia, but East Carolina's veteran front seven allowed only 153 rush yards in Greenville last season (WVU low in 2006) and should be able to at least hold its own against scoring-happy Mountaineers... Note that the pesky Pirates have covered 11 of their last 13 when catching points on the road.
The play: East Carolina plus 24.5 for a medium bet.
You guys know how to identify situations - even B.D. Killa, who is mostly refrained from betting these days... Here's the Gold Sheet word-for-word on this one...
"Toledo 31-30... With these squads off such disparate performances, inclined to take extra points with Toledo squad that's 6-1 as a home dog in Glass Bowl since 2002. Iowa State offense not exactly en fuego (13 ppg; settled for 5 FGs vs. Iowa), and transitioning Cylcones (under rookie HC Chizik) haven't covered as road chalk since 2001! Rocket offense
goes in with confidence after generating season-high 43 in OT loss at Ames LY. "
The play: Toledo plus 3.5 and ML for small bets each.
Not sure what to make of Carolina-at-South Florida game. Leaned dog at first but with Dr. Bob knocking the number down, there's now little value there. USF has had a week off after Aubbie win but they've got West Virginia coming in next week in a big revenger. Yates should help Butchie's boys keep this one close to the end if he can duck the turnovers that
USF likes to force. Pass for now.
Lean to Wake on Saturday but would like to hear TimH's thoughts. I also won't lay points with the Deacons, as Maryland has had extra prep time since the WV loss and WFU is an atrocious 4-21 in the last 25 ATS as a favorite!
Leaning to Clemson minus just a touchdown in Raleigh Saturday now that this line has dropped. Injuries are really decimating the Wolfpack and new Clemson QB Harper (8 touchdown passes last 2) are making teams respect the pass... it makes dangerous RB's Davis and Spiller only more lethal. Clemson has covered 3 straight at State, while Wolfpack now 1-8 ATS last 9 overall.
The play: Clemson minus 7 for a medium bet.
Not sure if line has caught up to enthusiastic Bearcats yet but not willing to beat them anymore to find out... Kitties have overwhelmed first three foes in 2007 by a combined 140-16! Marshall (just 2-15 ATS last 17 away from Huntington) next in line for a crushing, as the speedy Cincy defense already has forced 17 turnovers...
Lots talked about the UK/Arkansas game in some other threads. With Bob pushing it under a touchdown, I sure see some value in Arkansas. Why? Because, simply put, I'm not sure how good ANY of the first three teams Kentucky has handled at home are... Big step up in class here. Note Arky's first-game-off-an-SEC loss struggles, though, so I'll prolly pass.
Will be back later today with other thoughts but wanted to get to this one before anyone else bet on Purdue....
Joe Tiller and Minnesota's Tim Brewster were on the same Purdue
staff in 1986—more or less.
"I remember he was the 'enemy,' " Tiller recalled. "He was with the defense and I was with the offense. He was trying to learn about coaching and we were just trying to stay one step ahead of the posse."
Not sure what that means but I sure don't like laying meaningful points in conference games, especially with coaches who used to work together. Just something to chew on....
Good luck fellas! Back later with more thoughts...
:cheers:
Also, this is the first week I was able to take some time in the middle of the week to check out some stuff that's been posted from the Sunday coffee and line discussion up through dozens of picks and discussions (South Carolina/LSU? wow, what a thread)... Wow. Great stuff. Got me thinkin...
From the time I got sick of the Covers nonsense and went to work for Ken at PPP, then with Mark (BuryTheBook) and now Fonds and the gang here ... I can honestly say it took from the end of the 2003 season until now - three-and-a-half years - but this football forum has finally turned into what I (and all of our partnership and mod team, and most members)
envisioned since 2003 ... THE BEST place to discuss college football and investing in college football on all of the Web!
OK, mushy shit out of the way, let's get to the card. Traditionally, this weekend is one of my best of the year. One of the last ones where my ratings are well ahead of those who make the opening numbers. They start to tighten a bit from here on out - and in another week or two, the numbers will be awfully difficult and it will be a lot of situations, sandwiches, etc., that dictate who gets the cash from then until the bowls.
Syracuse is abysmal. I have the feeling this could be the week U of L opens up a can of whoopass on someone, but they ain't got the money yet, and I'm not trying to break the trend until Kragthorpe gets the ship righted there. Off a loss, tough to figure whether it takes U of L awhile to rebound or not. Pass.
Illinois is off to a good start and equaled their wins in the first two years of the Zooker Era but now they're gonna start making the Illini favorites on the road? Indiana has a QB that has helped the Hoosiers get to the top of the Big 10 in rushing offense (WHAT? lol) and I don't think Illinois is going to have an answer for him. They did slow down Mizzou in the second half (Mizzou has slowed itself down three times in the 2nd half though) but Daniel is no kind of mobile quarterback like Lewis is. This game is in Bloomington and I expect one of the best IU crowds in recent years, as these Hoosiers are 3-0 and sniffing bowl eligibility. There's no way that this game shouldn't be on ESPN over one of these other snoozers, and more importantly, there's no way Illinois can be the favorite. Take the
points and all the ML fun you want. Hoosier defense is opportunistic and Juice is still a mistake waiting to happen back there. IU's pass rush is greatly improved (17 sacks in three games) and Illinois is 2-18 SU in true roadies since 2003.
The play: Indiana ML and plus 3 for a big bet.
Dr. Bob fired away on Navy on the road Thursday - but I'm not convinced that's the right play. Sure, the Navy ran for 521 yards against Ball State and Duke has no firepower like that on offense... but QB Kaheaku-Enhada sprained both ankles last week and I don't see the motivation there to win by two touchdowns for the Navy. Not interested in laying it.
Hard to pick a side in Baylor/Buffalo battle. I like Morriss as a coach but the Bulls have played tougher foes to this point and that could pay off. Pass.
Look to Zipstar or one of the northeast Ohio cronies around here to give you insight to the Akron/Kent game. I made it a pick so taking points with the hosts seems appealing here. Carlton Jackson played well in Bloomington for the most part but Edelman is a dangerous dual threat QB, similar to the IU one that gave Akron fits last week.
Obviously, Boston College has to be considered as big of a surprise as any to start the season. Three wins, all in league play, have them poised to play for the league title in December. Big class drop to Army, but not as big as you might think, considering Army outplayed Wake last week. Pevoto might be out, which would make it tough to take Black Knights, but that defense has been very solid so far and is prolly a little underrated. I'll dip in if I can take 28, but nothing less.
Not sure what to make of Miami's game in Boulder this week. The RedCocks just got blasted at home by archrival Cincy and that's two tough losses in a row preceding a trip to altitude. With the offensive struggles of the Buffs, I can't try to lay it, but big injuries to Murphy and his backup, guys on the O-line, and a pair of backers, make it
difficult to take the points, as well.
Ball State has won two straight and should be brimming with confidence, now having won four straight road games. The last road loss was by a touchdown at unbeaten Michigan last November. That team was better than this Nebraska unit, so the Huskers better get up for this one in a hurry. I've noticed tons of newsletters and touts all over the favorite here. They assume that because Navy ran for 521 last week, that Nebraska can just ditch the chuck-and-duck and do the same thing Saturday. The early start time (11:30 am), the letdown after the USC loss, and some injuries to key players could open things up for Nate Davis and the Cardinal offense. I said I'd take four scores on Sunday and nothing has changed now.
The play: Ball State plus 23 for a medium bet.
Something tells me that Walters has been out dummying up BYU to slam into Air Force on Saturday. THat makes sense to me, as BYU has to eliminate turnovers (8 in the last 2 games) and penalties (25 last 2!) that sidetracked Cougars in losses at UCLA & Tulsa. Carney looks to be adjusting from option to Calhoun's shotgun without much trouble. Upstart Falcons have already beaten the two best teams in this league, and will be in MWC driver's seat with another upset... It might not happen but there's no reason they should be catching a dozen or so.
The play: Air Force plus 11.5 for a small bet.
Revenge for UCLA, which is certainly better than it showed last week? Or a rebound for Washington, which was stymied by great Ohio State defense? I was looking to take more than seven, so if this goes up into the two-score range look for me on the dog. But at 6 or so, it's a wait-and-see for possible (drunken) halftime possibilities (1015 Fox Sports Net
kick).
Solid Georgia secondary might be tested, as these sophomores ain't seen a passing game like Saban's J.P. Wilson-led one that has all kinds of playmakers that gave Arky fits last week. I like Georgia's toughness up front and they've had an extra week to take out some of the
sting of the South Carolina loss. This looks like it goes to the wire.
Florida seems to be a popular pick, and with their explosiveness and Ole Piss's lack of ability to contain an offense for more than one possession, I can't blame those interested in laying it. But even though the Gator speed can be devastating, they have also dropped seven in a row as a road favorite. I've been a part of three of those losses, and am not interested in a fourth. Pass.
I think I saw someone here say early in the week that Northwestern won't score at the Shoe on Saturday. If Tyrell Sutton doesn't play, then I'd be hard-pressed to argue with them considering the Wildcats just lost at home to Duke. At first glance this seems a little cheap but travel factors and the high number make it a no-bet for me. Will Bacher throw 50
times for no touchdowns again? Almost certainly not. And Fitzgerald was a player on the 1995 Northwestern team that lost in the pre-Big 10 season in a game it shouldn't, so he should not have a problem getting the Wildcats properly prepared for this one. Only home game in a five-week stretch for Ohio State? Pass.
Penn State looks to be a little better than Michigan this season but they haven't won against the Wolverines in more than a decade and I'm not going to try to buck this trend - not with the way PSU has lost in Ann Arbor the last two times. Wolves on the rebound after last week's resounding win? Do they ever play a road game? Pass.
Texas Tech laying less than a touchdown sure looks interesting. Okie State has been stricken with numerous injuries, having lost their rudder of a running back, a third-year center that's hurt, and benching a 20-game starter at quarterback. The Cowboys get an extra day to prepare for Tech, but this is the same team that trailed 41-10 at Troy State.
Meantime, Tech is 3-0 and hasn't been held to less than 45 points. Not convinced Tech will get off to a good start? Neither am I. The Raiders gave up 17 points on three consecutive Rice possessions, then turned around and got three turnovers and three three-and-outs in the next seven series. They gave up four straight touchdowns to UTEP in the first 20 minutes or so before putting on the clamps. Perhaps a second half play
is in order, as the Red Raiders have held their first three opponents to a total of 13 second-half points.
The play: Texas Tech -5.5 for a small bet (seen this team and their road follies before!)..
Notre Dame might be as bad as advertised, but I'm no big Michigan State fan and I sure don't understand how they can lay DD's in SOuth Bend against an Irish team that is purported to be "starting their season over" this week. Listen, it's been a rough go of it for Charlie Weis and gang lately, and I know ND is bad bad bad. But do you really think they won't come out fighting like a rabid dog on Saturday? If so, then you shouldn't be betting on college football. I missed the 13s that were out on Monday so I'm passing for now. But this line is obviously overadjusted on recent results.
Lean to Central Florida at anything less than seven at home against Memphis but the Tigers are off a virtual bye (I-AA), while UCF played a barnburner against Texas. Tough to see them coming with that emotion this week. Pass.
Don't know whether BC is that good or GT is overrated but I sure was wrong about the Jackets rolling last week. Didn't get to see much of that one... Virginia was able to really control the ball in a nice win in Chapel Hill. Can they duplicate the success against GT? Me thinks it will be tough for them to move it consistently but I really have my doubts about this Jacket offense at this point. Pass.
Colly State is the best winless team in America at this point, as they should have beaten Colorado and gave Cal all the Bears wanted the next week. This is a tough road trip, as Houston was competitive at Oregon and sleptwalked in New Orleans last week. The Cougars are my C-USA fave at this point and Dr. Bob also thought laying less than seven would be a good idea. No value in either side at this point for me; I made it 7.
Big move on Arizona Thursday afternoon. And while there are some decent factors working in the way of the dog, if DeSean Jackson is close to healthy, this could get ugly. Tedford won't likely forget the loss to UA from 2006 that kept them out of the Rose Bowl. With this being in Berkeley, all the Cal speed will be on display throughout and Bears should be able to contain Willie and UA offense that's struggling with turnovers. Still, Cal is 1-11-1 in its last 13 laying double digits. Pass.
Northern now goes to Moscow after tough loss at home to EMU in which turnovers did the Huskies in. Still, tough to envision the dogs losing to an Idaho unit that has had two former coaches "take it easy" on them a little in losses to USC and Wazzou. Good way for NIU to get off the shitter and into the win column after brutal losses to SIU and EMU. Expect a certain move on the dog Saturday...
The plays: NIU plus 3.5 (small) and ML (medium) each. Will likely hedge out of the ML play and scalp a small profit for a medium bet once this goes down to 2 or 1... and leave the plus 3.5 small as my only bet.
I like the effort I saw out of Temple last week - but I also liked that effort vs. Navy and I got bitch-slapped for betting them against Barfalo two weeks back. So I'll pass, especially considering this is a revenger for a BG team that Temple steamrolled last season for its only win in 27 games!
It's awfully tough to bet agianst West Virginia, but East Carolina's veteran front seven allowed only 153 rush yards in Greenville last season (WVU low in 2006) and should be able to at least hold its own against scoring-happy Mountaineers... Note that the pesky Pirates have covered 11 of their last 13 when catching points on the road.
The play: East Carolina plus 24.5 for a medium bet.
You guys know how to identify situations - even B.D. Killa, who is mostly refrained from betting these days... Here's the Gold Sheet word-for-word on this one...
"Toledo 31-30... With these squads off such disparate performances, inclined to take extra points with Toledo squad that's 6-1 as a home dog in Glass Bowl since 2002. Iowa State offense not exactly en fuego (13 ppg; settled for 5 FGs vs. Iowa), and transitioning Cylcones (under rookie HC Chizik) haven't covered as road chalk since 2001! Rocket offense
goes in with confidence after generating season-high 43 in OT loss at Ames LY. "
The play: Toledo plus 3.5 and ML for small bets each.
Not sure what to make of Carolina-at-South Florida game. Leaned dog at first but with Dr. Bob knocking the number down, there's now little value there. USF has had a week off after Aubbie win but they've got West Virginia coming in next week in a big revenger. Yates should help Butchie's boys keep this one close to the end if he can duck the turnovers that
USF likes to force. Pass for now.
Lean to Wake on Saturday but would like to hear TimH's thoughts. I also won't lay points with the Deacons, as Maryland has had extra prep time since the WV loss and WFU is an atrocious 4-21 in the last 25 ATS as a favorite!
Leaning to Clemson minus just a touchdown in Raleigh Saturday now that this line has dropped. Injuries are really decimating the Wolfpack and new Clemson QB Harper (8 touchdown passes last 2) are making teams respect the pass... it makes dangerous RB's Davis and Spiller only more lethal. Clemson has covered 3 straight at State, while Wolfpack now 1-8 ATS last 9 overall.
The play: Clemson minus 7 for a medium bet.
Not sure if line has caught up to enthusiastic Bearcats yet but not willing to beat them anymore to find out... Kitties have overwhelmed first three foes in 2007 by a combined 140-16! Marshall (just 2-15 ATS last 17 away from Huntington) next in line for a crushing, as the speedy Cincy defense already has forced 17 turnovers...
Lots talked about the UK/Arkansas game in some other threads. With Bob pushing it under a touchdown, I sure see some value in Arkansas. Why? Because, simply put, I'm not sure how good ANY of the first three teams Kentucky has handled at home are... Big step up in class here. Note Arky's first-game-off-an-SEC loss struggles, though, so I'll prolly pass.
Will be back later today with other thoughts but wanted to get to this one before anyone else bet on Purdue....
Joe Tiller and Minnesota's Tim Brewster were on the same Purdue
staff in 1986—more or less.
"I remember he was the 'enemy,' " Tiller recalled. "He was with the defense and I was with the offense. He was trying to learn about coaching and we were just trying to stay one step ahead of the posse."
Not sure what that means but I sure don't like laying meaningful points in conference games, especially with coaches who used to work together. Just something to chew on....
Good luck fellas! Back later with more thoughts...
:cheers:
