CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Guess I had things figured out last night, leaving alone that piece of turd ACC game that ended up falling on the number. Not seeing much to like about tonight's game, either. Would lean to Northwestern at any more than 7. Actually make the game a little lower and was considering NW but there have to be some serious issues on offense if you can only put up 14 against Eastern Michigan.
To Saturday...
I still don't think Wisconsin is very good. Stocco is manageable at QB and their running game got a big boost from RS frosh Hill. The 3-11 ATS mark in the L-14 is cause for concern for UM at Big House, and it's why I won't lay the 13, even though UM is much stronger in my mind.
Not sure who Minnesota is to try and lay points in Lafayette. Two bad teams at this point of the season but the Boiler offense should get untracked against porous Minny defense. Big revenge game for Purdue and Painter ought to exploit Minny secondary.
The play: Purdue plus 3 -120 for a small bet
Would not have either side in Miami O/Cuse game - Cuse has five straight covers but who are they to start laying touchdowns?
OU/Mizzou I made pretty much right at the number. Backdoor last week by New Mex still stings...
Louisville, I made 11. Would have loved to lay 9, and could take back 14.5 earlier this week. Oh well. Too much speed and gun to the head, I'd have the Cards again this week even after the big win last week.
Looking to lay less than 21 with Tennessee. Got them much higher against Marshall but at the same time, the Vols certainly won't be at the top of their game after the disapppointing loss to Florida last week. Mental state makes it tough to lay large number.
Clemson coming off big win, certainly likely to look past Carolina after two straight grueling games, both on the road. I would have Carolina or no one because of the situation but I made the number higher so must pass.
Florida has been bet up into the stratosphere - though I made it 27. Ass still hurts from laying 21 with Florida last year and seeing them spit out a 49-7 halftime lead in a backdoor push. Been calling for Brooks's ouster for two-plus years but that game made me want to take it to a new level. Ridiculous. This is a great spot for UK, 1-0 in SEC for first time since I was in elementary school, while Florida off monster win in Knoxvul and now coming home. Talent disparity too great though, and cannot take the points even though UF will be flat.
Iowa has monster home tilt with Ohio State upcoming, but tough to get a read on Ferentz's bunch. Going into the season, I thoguht they would win that one and maybe the whole Big Ten. Still not backing off after -4 turnover effort and escape sans-Tate at Cuse, and good gutty win over Iowa State team that always battles them tough. Note Iowa DD record ATS under Ferentz (though 17-2 going into the year, now 17-4 after back-to-back non-covers in the same role). Pass.
No clue on how to assess Florida State but they haven't even scored 30 points in three games offensively, have they? How can they go out and lay 30?
Auburn beats up on these kinds of teams like few others. Tommy T knows it's a non-con game and wants to stay healthy but there is too much depth and they will overwhelm UB. Auburn 9-3 ATS last five years when laying three touchdowns or more and Tuberville is also 11-1 as a DD-home fave since 2003. They can't make it high enough. I made the line 47.5 and if Buffalo scores I'll be shocked.
The play: Auburn -40.5 for a medium bet
Lean to BG in the MAC East battle after close wins over Barfalo and Fla. International... but Kent got a big win at Miami in the first of three straight games (BG and Akron next) that will go a long way in determining if last week was flukey. Me needs to see more first...
Tulsa and Navy are two teams that have made their backers a lot of money. Won't be on either side here, as I can make a case for both.
VT now 21-6 ATS last 2-plus years, and Cincy's schedule puts them in a difficult spot here after unfortunate non-cover in Columbus last week. Passing; made it close to the current line.
Utah State loses Pennyman and they didn't score in any of the first three games even WITH him. BYU red-assed for sure after mystifying loss to BC in which they were all but dominant for most of the game. Don't be scared to lay it.
The play: BYU -28 for a small bet
OSU now reeled off 10 straight covers and would not have try to beat them in this final revenge spot from last year (easy win in Texas already).. Just seems like a lot of points to try to give a Penn State team that will play with confidence and not be intimidated by big-game atmosphere at the Shoe.
Been eyeballing potential to play Iowa State for a long time now; I was just wanting more than two touchdowns... and now they're giving me three-and-a-half??? McCoy has a lot of upside but he's a first-year QB for Mack and will make those kind of mistakes. If the Clones can get consistent pressure on McCoy, they can force more mistakes. THe ISU skill players are among the best in the league, with Meyer and Hicks giving them a chance to beat any team in the league on a given day. If the lines can step up and compete for the better part of four quarters, this is a game they'll have a chance to win in the last 7 minutes.
The play: Iowa State plus 24.5 for a big bet
Stanford has really been awful but I'd have the Tree before I started laying DD's on the road with Wazzou.
I'm still on the Cal bandwagon, even after the Week 1 loss. Made this game a little higher and woulda loved to got in at minus-7. Tedford coaches the better team and has the better players. They're at home - so I'll hesistantly lay it here.
THe play: Cal -8 for a small bet
Pissed about missing the number in the UCLA/Washington game. The Bruins have been better than I thought they would be but this Washington team can do some things well, especially with Stanback running the offense. Remember that a lesser UW team took the Bruins to the wire last fall. Will be on Washington if I can take 4.
Not sure where Indiana's emotional state is as ailing HC Hoeppner won't re-join team until after this weekend... Interim coach Lynch struggled towards the end of his Ball State career and they lost last week after building 2-TD lead to I-AA Southern Illinois. Pass.
Central/Eastern provided two good meetings in a row - can see this one going to the wire as well if the EMU defense that stymied Northwestern for a good part of the game shows up in the team's home opener.
Flip a coin in Laramie. I like Fisher's boys plenty but the Poke defense has been damn solid thus far.
All kinds of people I respect are on UTEP. While I shudder to think about how NM has screwed me (so has UTEP), I still think Miners are the right side. But laying a big number on the road and with mistake-prone Palmer back there, will pass because hard-trying Lobos can easily bang thru the back door.
Skip impressive spread marks since taking over at ECU but can't miss the fact that they barely won last week (final score, in covering fashion, be damned)... while WV cashed on a plus-5 turnover binge early on in the 3rd quarter to coast past Maryland. Two extra days to prep.
Not interested in laying points with lucky-to-be-3-0-Boston College, despite how bad NC STate has been as of late.
Not sure if Jorja right side or not but they've got one more patsy before Tennessee game, while Buffs are 0-3 with no help on the way.
Another Sat. afternoon CBS SEC war looms large from Fayetteville. Emerging Mustain makes Hogs a little more enticing than Bammer if they can block up front. Will watch intently for halftime purposes...
No opinion on Army/Baylor. Line looks a little high considering Army's effort last week (and their effort in general vs. Texas teams, with all the Texas natives in the academy)...
God, does Temple suck. Unfortunately, my 'Fade Temple' train getting derailed this week as the oddsmakers have sprinted past me in rating just how bad they are.
Wake suffering from injuries everywhere - they take BC's place as worst-3-0-team but in all honesty, there is a lot of promising things (save for injuries to a tackle, RB, QB) ... including great coaching from Grobe, which could propel them here.
Kansas is the right side against USF but I'm not confident in my ratings on either of those teams at this point. Want to find out what else transpires here, and there are injury issues at this point, too.
Think Aggie spread-option will give Lousy Tech trouble but cannot justify laying 24 or so after narrow escape over Army last week.
UAB not a good favorite traditionally, and with their struggles on offense, not sure how they can lay 10 in this spot to a Messy State team that's seeing their best chance at a victory go down the tubes in a hurry. No real strong opinion but would have 'dog' or no one here.
LSU will certainly have red-ass after tough loss but not sure whether they want to beat up on little New Orleans brother Tulane. Ricard has enough tools to make plays and the Wave are off a nice win last week. I'll take six scores before kickoff with this offense and pray the defense hangs in long enough to get the cash.
The play: Tulane plus 36.5 for a small bet
San Diego State looks to get its first win in the Chuck Long era and make a statement in the MWC against one of the league's top teams. Sure, Utah has won two straight but beating Northern Arizona and Utah State can hardly get them ready for a tough conference opener on the road at sea-level. Utah might also be looking ahead, as Boise and TCU are coming up. The only team that has this kind of talent that Utah played so far is UCLA, and I already lost my money on Utah there. The struggling Aztec offense might keep them from winning this game outright, but there's no way they should be catching this kind of number at home.
THe play: San Diego State plus 9 for a medium bet
Hawaii plays at Boise. See Hawaiiguy writeup for more info. Put it like this, I agree with him a lot and the physical nature that this Grass Skirt Yaggo Warrior team plays with is unlike most that people from the islands ever remember. A great spot and a ridiculous number. Don't be surprised...
The play: Hawaii plus 15 for a big bet
Can't wait to watch ND/Mich State. Plenty of storylines here, even with ND loss last week - though I don't like that my value is now gone, cause I was set to take 7 until Mishigan put the beat-down on the Irish. Will get involved at the break if something warrants.
Arizona goes from catching 14 to 22??? Wow. Passing for now but that sure seems a little high. No doubt Stoopsie's got something up his sleeve. First Pac-10 roadie for a lot of the USC newbies...
Like Oklahoma State plenty in their game at Houston but missed the number, would have loved to take 3 in a spot where the wrong team was clearly favored.
Figures my big bet has to be the last game on the board for the second straight week but I made the game much lower and it shocked the hell out of me to see it get bet up. Give me the Vandals and all them points against the well-rested Beavers, who are no doubt going to focus on their Pac-10 frays from here on out. I will be shocked if OSU even covers the 10-point teasers here, let alone the ridiculous tariff.
The play: Idaho plus 26 for a big bet
In the shit games, will be on Middle Tenny plus 28.5 small, Maryland -18 small and Troy State plus 24 medium. Sorry for the lack of write-up/opinions there. Out of time, got a half-hour worth of work do to... and will check back before I leave at 6:30 Eastern...
Thoughts, comments, opinions, etc., welcome and appreciated...
Good luck everyone!
:shake:
To Saturday...
I still don't think Wisconsin is very good. Stocco is manageable at QB and their running game got a big boost from RS frosh Hill. The 3-11 ATS mark in the L-14 is cause for concern for UM at Big House, and it's why I won't lay the 13, even though UM is much stronger in my mind.
Not sure who Minnesota is to try and lay points in Lafayette. Two bad teams at this point of the season but the Boiler offense should get untracked against porous Minny defense. Big revenge game for Purdue and Painter ought to exploit Minny secondary.
The play: Purdue plus 3 -120 for a small bet
Would not have either side in Miami O/Cuse game - Cuse has five straight covers but who are they to start laying touchdowns?
OU/Mizzou I made pretty much right at the number. Backdoor last week by New Mex still stings...
Louisville, I made 11. Would have loved to lay 9, and could take back 14.5 earlier this week. Oh well. Too much speed and gun to the head, I'd have the Cards again this week even after the big win last week.
Looking to lay less than 21 with Tennessee. Got them much higher against Marshall but at the same time, the Vols certainly won't be at the top of their game after the disapppointing loss to Florida last week. Mental state makes it tough to lay large number.
Clemson coming off big win, certainly likely to look past Carolina after two straight grueling games, both on the road. I would have Carolina or no one because of the situation but I made the number higher so must pass.
Florida has been bet up into the stratosphere - though I made it 27. Ass still hurts from laying 21 with Florida last year and seeing them spit out a 49-7 halftime lead in a backdoor push. Been calling for Brooks's ouster for two-plus years but that game made me want to take it to a new level. Ridiculous. This is a great spot for UK, 1-0 in SEC for first time since I was in elementary school, while Florida off monster win in Knoxvul and now coming home. Talent disparity too great though, and cannot take the points even though UF will be flat.
Iowa has monster home tilt with Ohio State upcoming, but tough to get a read on Ferentz's bunch. Going into the season, I thoguht they would win that one and maybe the whole Big Ten. Still not backing off after -4 turnover effort and escape sans-Tate at Cuse, and good gutty win over Iowa State team that always battles them tough. Note Iowa DD record ATS under Ferentz (though 17-2 going into the year, now 17-4 after back-to-back non-covers in the same role). Pass.
No clue on how to assess Florida State but they haven't even scored 30 points in three games offensively, have they? How can they go out and lay 30?
Auburn beats up on these kinds of teams like few others. Tommy T knows it's a non-con game and wants to stay healthy but there is too much depth and they will overwhelm UB. Auburn 9-3 ATS last five years when laying three touchdowns or more and Tuberville is also 11-1 as a DD-home fave since 2003. They can't make it high enough. I made the line 47.5 and if Buffalo scores I'll be shocked.
The play: Auburn -40.5 for a medium bet
Lean to BG in the MAC East battle after close wins over Barfalo and Fla. International... but Kent got a big win at Miami in the first of three straight games (BG and Akron next) that will go a long way in determining if last week was flukey. Me needs to see more first...
Tulsa and Navy are two teams that have made their backers a lot of money. Won't be on either side here, as I can make a case for both.
VT now 21-6 ATS last 2-plus years, and Cincy's schedule puts them in a difficult spot here after unfortunate non-cover in Columbus last week. Passing; made it close to the current line.
Utah State loses Pennyman and they didn't score in any of the first three games even WITH him. BYU red-assed for sure after mystifying loss to BC in which they were all but dominant for most of the game. Don't be scared to lay it.
The play: BYU -28 for a small bet
OSU now reeled off 10 straight covers and would not have try to beat them in this final revenge spot from last year (easy win in Texas already).. Just seems like a lot of points to try to give a Penn State team that will play with confidence and not be intimidated by big-game atmosphere at the Shoe.
Been eyeballing potential to play Iowa State for a long time now; I was just wanting more than two touchdowns... and now they're giving me three-and-a-half??? McCoy has a lot of upside but he's a first-year QB for Mack and will make those kind of mistakes. If the Clones can get consistent pressure on McCoy, they can force more mistakes. THe ISU skill players are among the best in the league, with Meyer and Hicks giving them a chance to beat any team in the league on a given day. If the lines can step up and compete for the better part of four quarters, this is a game they'll have a chance to win in the last 7 minutes.
The play: Iowa State plus 24.5 for a big bet
Stanford has really been awful but I'd have the Tree before I started laying DD's on the road with Wazzou.
I'm still on the Cal bandwagon, even after the Week 1 loss. Made this game a little higher and woulda loved to got in at minus-7. Tedford coaches the better team and has the better players. They're at home - so I'll hesistantly lay it here.
THe play: Cal -8 for a small bet
Pissed about missing the number in the UCLA/Washington game. The Bruins have been better than I thought they would be but this Washington team can do some things well, especially with Stanback running the offense. Remember that a lesser UW team took the Bruins to the wire last fall. Will be on Washington if I can take 4.
Not sure where Indiana's emotional state is as ailing HC Hoeppner won't re-join team until after this weekend... Interim coach Lynch struggled towards the end of his Ball State career and they lost last week after building 2-TD lead to I-AA Southern Illinois. Pass.
Central/Eastern provided two good meetings in a row - can see this one going to the wire as well if the EMU defense that stymied Northwestern for a good part of the game shows up in the team's home opener.
Flip a coin in Laramie. I like Fisher's boys plenty but the Poke defense has been damn solid thus far.
All kinds of people I respect are on UTEP. While I shudder to think about how NM has screwed me (so has UTEP), I still think Miners are the right side. But laying a big number on the road and with mistake-prone Palmer back there, will pass because hard-trying Lobos can easily bang thru the back door.
Skip impressive spread marks since taking over at ECU but can't miss the fact that they barely won last week (final score, in covering fashion, be damned)... while WV cashed on a plus-5 turnover binge early on in the 3rd quarter to coast past Maryland. Two extra days to prep.
Not interested in laying points with lucky-to-be-3-0-Boston College, despite how bad NC STate has been as of late.
Not sure if Jorja right side or not but they've got one more patsy before Tennessee game, while Buffs are 0-3 with no help on the way.
Another Sat. afternoon CBS SEC war looms large from Fayetteville. Emerging Mustain makes Hogs a little more enticing than Bammer if they can block up front. Will watch intently for halftime purposes...
No opinion on Army/Baylor. Line looks a little high considering Army's effort last week (and their effort in general vs. Texas teams, with all the Texas natives in the academy)...
God, does Temple suck. Unfortunately, my 'Fade Temple' train getting derailed this week as the oddsmakers have sprinted past me in rating just how bad they are.
Wake suffering from injuries everywhere - they take BC's place as worst-3-0-team but in all honesty, there is a lot of promising things (save for injuries to a tackle, RB, QB) ... including great coaching from Grobe, which could propel them here.
Kansas is the right side against USF but I'm not confident in my ratings on either of those teams at this point. Want to find out what else transpires here, and there are injury issues at this point, too.
Think Aggie spread-option will give Lousy Tech trouble but cannot justify laying 24 or so after narrow escape over Army last week.
UAB not a good favorite traditionally, and with their struggles on offense, not sure how they can lay 10 in this spot to a Messy State team that's seeing their best chance at a victory go down the tubes in a hurry. No real strong opinion but would have 'dog' or no one here.
LSU will certainly have red-ass after tough loss but not sure whether they want to beat up on little New Orleans brother Tulane. Ricard has enough tools to make plays and the Wave are off a nice win last week. I'll take six scores before kickoff with this offense and pray the defense hangs in long enough to get the cash.
The play: Tulane plus 36.5 for a small bet
San Diego State looks to get its first win in the Chuck Long era and make a statement in the MWC against one of the league's top teams. Sure, Utah has won two straight but beating Northern Arizona and Utah State can hardly get them ready for a tough conference opener on the road at sea-level. Utah might also be looking ahead, as Boise and TCU are coming up. The only team that has this kind of talent that Utah played so far is UCLA, and I already lost my money on Utah there. The struggling Aztec offense might keep them from winning this game outright, but there's no way they should be catching this kind of number at home.
THe play: San Diego State plus 9 for a medium bet
Hawaii plays at Boise. See Hawaiiguy writeup for more info. Put it like this, I agree with him a lot and the physical nature that this Grass Skirt Yaggo Warrior team plays with is unlike most that people from the islands ever remember. A great spot and a ridiculous number. Don't be surprised...
The play: Hawaii plus 15 for a big bet
Can't wait to watch ND/Mich State. Plenty of storylines here, even with ND loss last week - though I don't like that my value is now gone, cause I was set to take 7 until Mishigan put the beat-down on the Irish. Will get involved at the break if something warrants.
Arizona goes from catching 14 to 22??? Wow. Passing for now but that sure seems a little high. No doubt Stoopsie's got something up his sleeve. First Pac-10 roadie for a lot of the USC newbies...
Like Oklahoma State plenty in their game at Houston but missed the number, would have loved to take 3 in a spot where the wrong team was clearly favored.
Figures my big bet has to be the last game on the board for the second straight week but I made the game much lower and it shocked the hell out of me to see it get bet up. Give me the Vandals and all them points against the well-rested Beavers, who are no doubt going to focus on their Pac-10 frays from here on out. I will be shocked if OSU even covers the 10-point teasers here, let alone the ridiculous tariff.
The play: Idaho plus 26 for a big bet
In the shit games, will be on Middle Tenny plus 28.5 small, Maryland -18 small and Troy State plus 24 medium. Sorry for the lack of write-up/opinions there. Out of time, got a half-hour worth of work do to... and will check back before I leave at 6:30 Eastern...
Thoughts, comments, opinions, etc., welcome and appreciated...
Good luck everyone!
:shake:
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