CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Finished 2-3 on posted plays yesterday; blah... coulda been better, coulda been worse... I'll have more thoughts going into next week.
To tomorrow...
No opinion at the Big House. Michigan might not ever get ahead of the spread. If it does, the backdoor is certain to be ajar. Pass; would have Vandy or no one.
Actually made Ohio State higher against Northern but I do realize NIU might be best MAC team and with OSU having Texas on deck, I can't justify any kind of play on the Buckeyes at 17 or higher. Will consider getting involved with a small fave play if some more Northern money comes in, as I can see OSU winning this one 34-17 or better...
Weather will likely be a factor in Happy Valley but this just means we don't have to worry about seeing whether Penn State will struggle passing the ball or not; they should steamroll up and down the field against Akron much like Minnesota did against Kent State Thursday. This game opened 23.5 at CRIS and was as low as 17 earlier this week (mighta got lower but I didn't see). The CRIS opener was my line and I thought I saw value at 17, weather or no weather. Akron did win the MAC last year, but this just created the early move and I thought it was unjustified, considering what they've got back this season. The Lions did win a BCS bowl and their linebackers and front seven should stop Akron from doing anything it wants to do. I think a shutout is entirely possible and the longer Akron is held scoreless, the more the fans will yearn for the blanking and the first-teamers could play.
Prediction: Penn State 30, Akron 0
The play: Penn State for a small bet at -17. If I get another crack at 17, it will be a medium bet.
Idaho will be better; I think they will cover at MSU but I really like MSU's team and made the game right where it's at.
No opinion on Wisky/BG. Both teams would be fade material for me if playing someone else but I made it 9 so won't bet.
This is the Super Bowl for Marshall, which has been trying to get this game set up for years now. Big brother vs. little brother, and we all know how hard the Thundering Turd play this team in the basketball rivalry; it was last year when they were winless in the MAC thru 9 games, yet still beat the Mounties straight-up... Marshall suspensions and WV's possible focus (I-AA at home next week) makes this a small bet.
Prediction: West Virginia 37, Marshall 20
The play: Marshall plus 22 small
I made Oregon higher but missed the value below 10; can't justify laying more with some question-marks surrounding Oregon and the Stanford QB being one of my faves out West...
Carolina favored five over Rutgers? It opened a little higher but I don't mind taking 5 here in a spot where the better team is catching points. Rutgers absolutely GAVE one away in Champaign in the opener last year, losing in overtime when they had the game well in hand (27-10 lead after 3 and missed four FGs in 3-point OT loss)... Tucker hasn't had a 100-yard receiving game since 2003 but he was their leading receiver that year and I think he can step in and replace Moses now that he's healthy. Brian Leonard is a Brahma bull at FB and is very versatile - among active NCAA players entering this season, Leonard is first in touchdowns (40) and career rushing attempts (585), fourth in receptions (169), sixth in rushing touchdowns (27) and eighth in rushing yards (2,352). Rice was 1,000-yard rusher as a frosh. Special teams could play a major role in this one, since both teams excel in that area. The Tar Heels were one of only six I-A schools to score twice on kickoff returns last year and ranked seventh nationally, 24.9 yards per return. The Knights counter with senior Willie Foster, the Big East's Special Teams Player of the Year last season. Foster was the first Rutgers player since 1980 to re turn a kickoff and a punt for a touchdown in the same season. Kicker Ito only missed three FG's after the Illy debacle and has range out to about 60 yards. The Heels are a little banged up. They lost starting strong safety Trimane Goddard at the start of the summer and they may be without starting LB Durrell Mapp as well. And it also appears that UNC will employ a quarterback rotation to utilize both junior Nebraska transfer Joe Dailey and freshman Cam Sexton. Just don't see how Rutgers loses this one with proper focus.
Prediction: Rutgers 31, North Carolina 17
The play: Rutgers plus 5.5 for a big bet
Everyone seems eager to play LaTech/Nebraska. Not me. Nebraska has yet to shown they can beat the piss out of people consistenly under Callahan and this MidWest Coast passing game; Lousyana Tech lost the farm from a 7-win WAC team. El Paso for me...
Made Washington lower against San Jose but not interested in either side.
Will be with Mista and some others on the Grass Skirt ****** Warriors in their opener in Tuscalooser. They did win two years back against the Tide so the revenge worries me some but the GSFW's have some impressive skilled players and a kickoff temperature of 79 wasn't exactly what the Bammer fans had in mind when they thought they'd bring in the islanders to the South in early September. Too bad this one's not on television because I think it will be entertaining for awhile. Don't expect Bama to let up if they get on the gas but I don't see that happening with a Croyle-less offense that will also miss Prothro. Other keys are back and I think they get it in gear enough after the break to win but don't discount Glanville in the second year of this defense. It should be competitive.
Prediction: Alabama 30, Hawaii 20
The play: Hawaii plus 17 for a medium bet
I have Wyoming rated fairly low this season and noticed that this game has flown under most radars. It would be under mine too, except that I made Wyoming a 2 1/2 point favorite and they are using 13. That's too much for me to pass up. USU has a lot of nice players; you could make a case for RB Cross, DL Soi, DL Reid, LB Hutton, FS Washington, KR Pennyman and PR Robinson as all being the best players at their position in the WAC. Wyoming loses Bramlett, and while I think Sween could be a good QB, this will only be his first game, and he loses all-everything receiver Bouknight, something I forsee hurting the 'Pokes (especially in September as they struggle with an offensive identity). This one goes to the wire.
Prediction: Wyoming 17, Utah State 16
The play: Utah State plus 13 for a big bet
Another game where everyone has an opinion is Cal/Tennessee. Yes, it's no fun to travel to Knoxvul to face 110,000 drunks for a 5:30 start, but the temp, again, will not be too bad. Longshore is the key here, as if he can adapt without too much trouble then the Bears look like just a plain better team to me than the Vols. Tennessee will be better than last year; but Cal will be the best team outside of USC in the West - and yes, call me crazy but I think if they win this one, they themselves can contend for a National Title. I took the deuce the other day after hearing the Longshore news and seeing the forecast (post-Ernesto), and I'm glad I did.
Prediction: Cal 27, Tennessee 17
The play: Cal plus 2 for a medium bet
Navy seems to be a popular play, and why not? They return most key components of one of their best teams in school history. I made them a 18.5 fave here and am not much of a fan about ECU, as I know they were 5-6 but that seemed to be an overachievement. They will likely struggle with the option and get ran out of Annapolis.
Prediction: Navy 41, East Carolina 13
The play: Navy -11.5 for a medium bet
The Indiana line really got away from me in a hurry. It was never less than '3' several hours after opening at CRIS on July 31, and never below 4 after August 13. I made IU right where it is now; had them last year in this game and a blocked extra point made it fall right on the number in most shops. I think IU is better than last year, and WMU won't be as good ultimately, so Indiana would be my side and I might add something small if I see a '6' pop back up but I won't be thrilled about laying that many. Tough call.
Nothing I can add to what everyone I respect in here has already said about Utah. They are going to beat UCLA on the field, and whip them in every fashion I forsee possible. It won't be close.
Prediction: Utah 28, UCLA 17
The play: Utah plus 3.5 for a medium bet
No opinion in the Swamp. USM traditionally a good roadie in opener (11-3 ATS since 92), while Florida might not show much in first two before trip to Knoxvul... also might not have kinks ironed out but JEESUS Urban has a lot of talent there and the second year is usually the one where the Spread Option takes off for him. I'm not trying to beat him, that's for sure. Pass.
Wake Forest, I made right where it is now. Not in any hurry to take Cuse when it opened 19 however. Another new offense there and they just stink, while Wake could be as good as they've been in Grobe's six years... They are traditionally a horrible fave and against non-con teams ATS, so I'll sit.
Texas Tech awfully high but I would have them or no one, considering their record in these spots in the past (11-1-1 L13 ATS in home openers)... Leach got his blue-chip QB he's been yearning after and this could turn into a west Texas track meet early.
No opinion whatsoever in Norman. Would not be in a hurry to lay 20-plus with OU after the debacle of 05; UAB should be better than some of you Big 12 guys give them credit for and they could keep this one close for awhile.
No opinion in Pittsburgh, though I do favor the home team a little and might make a small play based on Big Al/Denny facts in their thread. See it for more info...
Washington State's value has been sucked dry, but it was gone long ago, so no one really got it. I was just happy to get three-plus scores with a team that caught very few breaks last year and has enough talent back that they won't be intimidated by a trip to Auburn. This game could be close well into the second half and while I won't call for the outright win, I think the Cougs will have their chances....
Prediction: Auburn 24, Washington State 16
The play: Washington State plus 14.5 for a medium bet
Notre Dame's defense does not impress me one bit and while they should score at will most of the year, I think a full off-season for the GT staff (and others) to prepare for the Weis offense should make a difference. Reggie Ball doesn't have Ohio State talent around him but I do like 4-year starters in big-time atmospheres. He's already been there with teams that have beaten ranked foes Auburn, Clemson, Maryland, Auburn again and Miami; and covered as more-than-touchdown dogs against Florida State and NC State in the Ball Era. Now they are at home and have most of their offense back and the total in this one looks WAY too low considering I expect each team to eclipse 30 despite the rule changes. It will be exciting and don't be surprised if Tech pulls the upset. Nevertheless, take the points.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 38, Notre Dame 34
The play: GT plus 7 for a medium bet
There is loads of sharp money on Arky and I know all about trying to beat it, even with McFaddon playing. I'm just not sold that they are going to be this good, this fast. USC recruits better than anyone, so even though we don't know the names of their players, they should still be good enough to win by more than a touchdown in Fayetteville. But I sure hate getting stupid in laying young road chalk.
Prediction: USC 31, Arkanasas 21
The play: USC -8 for a small bet. May add a tad more if goes to -7.
Looking at Rice plus 14.5. Yes they will suck. Yes, Houston will be competitive but I cannot ignore the rivalry aspect and them having this sort of HD and dog record in the past period makes me think they will at least play hard and show UH some things they didn't expect early for the new coach. Contemplating small play on Rice plus three scores.
Also think Arizona is too low but not betting that one either; need to see one from each team.
Nothing stands out in the shit games, although Army at -4 would give me a little more interest even though I made it just that... Think there is good talent there but god, laying points on the road???
Thoughts, comments, etc., all welcome.... Best of luck to a prosperous opening weekend...
:shake:
To tomorrow...
No opinion at the Big House. Michigan might not ever get ahead of the spread. If it does, the backdoor is certain to be ajar. Pass; would have Vandy or no one.
Actually made Ohio State higher against Northern but I do realize NIU might be best MAC team and with OSU having Texas on deck, I can't justify any kind of play on the Buckeyes at 17 or higher. Will consider getting involved with a small fave play if some more Northern money comes in, as I can see OSU winning this one 34-17 or better...
Weather will likely be a factor in Happy Valley but this just means we don't have to worry about seeing whether Penn State will struggle passing the ball or not; they should steamroll up and down the field against Akron much like Minnesota did against Kent State Thursday. This game opened 23.5 at CRIS and was as low as 17 earlier this week (mighta got lower but I didn't see). The CRIS opener was my line and I thought I saw value at 17, weather or no weather. Akron did win the MAC last year, but this just created the early move and I thought it was unjustified, considering what they've got back this season. The Lions did win a BCS bowl and their linebackers and front seven should stop Akron from doing anything it wants to do. I think a shutout is entirely possible and the longer Akron is held scoreless, the more the fans will yearn for the blanking and the first-teamers could play.
Prediction: Penn State 30, Akron 0
The play: Penn State for a small bet at -17. If I get another crack at 17, it will be a medium bet.
Idaho will be better; I think they will cover at MSU but I really like MSU's team and made the game right where it's at.
No opinion on Wisky/BG. Both teams would be fade material for me if playing someone else but I made it 9 so won't bet.
This is the Super Bowl for Marshall, which has been trying to get this game set up for years now. Big brother vs. little brother, and we all know how hard the Thundering Turd play this team in the basketball rivalry; it was last year when they were winless in the MAC thru 9 games, yet still beat the Mounties straight-up... Marshall suspensions and WV's possible focus (I-AA at home next week) makes this a small bet.
Prediction: West Virginia 37, Marshall 20
The play: Marshall plus 22 small
I made Oregon higher but missed the value below 10; can't justify laying more with some question-marks surrounding Oregon and the Stanford QB being one of my faves out West...
Carolina favored five over Rutgers? It opened a little higher but I don't mind taking 5 here in a spot where the better team is catching points. Rutgers absolutely GAVE one away in Champaign in the opener last year, losing in overtime when they had the game well in hand (27-10 lead after 3 and missed four FGs in 3-point OT loss)... Tucker hasn't had a 100-yard receiving game since 2003 but he was their leading receiver that year and I think he can step in and replace Moses now that he's healthy. Brian Leonard is a Brahma bull at FB and is very versatile - among active NCAA players entering this season, Leonard is first in touchdowns (40) and career rushing attempts (585), fourth in receptions (169), sixth in rushing touchdowns (27) and eighth in rushing yards (2,352). Rice was 1,000-yard rusher as a frosh. Special teams could play a major role in this one, since both teams excel in that area. The Tar Heels were one of only six I-A schools to score twice on kickoff returns last year and ranked seventh nationally, 24.9 yards per return. The Knights counter with senior Willie Foster, the Big East's Special Teams Player of the Year last season. Foster was the first Rutgers player since 1980 to re turn a kickoff and a punt for a touchdown in the same season. Kicker Ito only missed three FG's after the Illy debacle and has range out to about 60 yards. The Heels are a little banged up. They lost starting strong safety Trimane Goddard at the start of the summer and they may be without starting LB Durrell Mapp as well. And it also appears that UNC will employ a quarterback rotation to utilize both junior Nebraska transfer Joe Dailey and freshman Cam Sexton. Just don't see how Rutgers loses this one with proper focus.
Prediction: Rutgers 31, North Carolina 17
The play: Rutgers plus 5.5 for a big bet
Everyone seems eager to play LaTech/Nebraska. Not me. Nebraska has yet to shown they can beat the piss out of people consistenly under Callahan and this MidWest Coast passing game; Lousyana Tech lost the farm from a 7-win WAC team. El Paso for me...
Made Washington lower against San Jose but not interested in either side.
Will be with Mista and some others on the Grass Skirt ****** Warriors in their opener in Tuscalooser. They did win two years back against the Tide so the revenge worries me some but the GSFW's have some impressive skilled players and a kickoff temperature of 79 wasn't exactly what the Bammer fans had in mind when they thought they'd bring in the islanders to the South in early September. Too bad this one's not on television because I think it will be entertaining for awhile. Don't expect Bama to let up if they get on the gas but I don't see that happening with a Croyle-less offense that will also miss Prothro. Other keys are back and I think they get it in gear enough after the break to win but don't discount Glanville in the second year of this defense. It should be competitive.
Prediction: Alabama 30, Hawaii 20
The play: Hawaii plus 17 for a medium bet
I have Wyoming rated fairly low this season and noticed that this game has flown under most radars. It would be under mine too, except that I made Wyoming a 2 1/2 point favorite and they are using 13. That's too much for me to pass up. USU has a lot of nice players; you could make a case for RB Cross, DL Soi, DL Reid, LB Hutton, FS Washington, KR Pennyman and PR Robinson as all being the best players at their position in the WAC. Wyoming loses Bramlett, and while I think Sween could be a good QB, this will only be his first game, and he loses all-everything receiver Bouknight, something I forsee hurting the 'Pokes (especially in September as they struggle with an offensive identity). This one goes to the wire.
Prediction: Wyoming 17, Utah State 16
The play: Utah State plus 13 for a big bet
Another game where everyone has an opinion is Cal/Tennessee. Yes, it's no fun to travel to Knoxvul to face 110,000 drunks for a 5:30 start, but the temp, again, will not be too bad. Longshore is the key here, as if he can adapt without too much trouble then the Bears look like just a plain better team to me than the Vols. Tennessee will be better than last year; but Cal will be the best team outside of USC in the West - and yes, call me crazy but I think if they win this one, they themselves can contend for a National Title. I took the deuce the other day after hearing the Longshore news and seeing the forecast (post-Ernesto), and I'm glad I did.
Prediction: Cal 27, Tennessee 17
The play: Cal plus 2 for a medium bet
Navy seems to be a popular play, and why not? They return most key components of one of their best teams in school history. I made them a 18.5 fave here and am not much of a fan about ECU, as I know they were 5-6 but that seemed to be an overachievement. They will likely struggle with the option and get ran out of Annapolis.
Prediction: Navy 41, East Carolina 13
The play: Navy -11.5 for a medium bet
The Indiana line really got away from me in a hurry. It was never less than '3' several hours after opening at CRIS on July 31, and never below 4 after August 13. I made IU right where it is now; had them last year in this game and a blocked extra point made it fall right on the number in most shops. I think IU is better than last year, and WMU won't be as good ultimately, so Indiana would be my side and I might add something small if I see a '6' pop back up but I won't be thrilled about laying that many. Tough call.
Nothing I can add to what everyone I respect in here has already said about Utah. They are going to beat UCLA on the field, and whip them in every fashion I forsee possible. It won't be close.
Prediction: Utah 28, UCLA 17
The play: Utah plus 3.5 for a medium bet
No opinion in the Swamp. USM traditionally a good roadie in opener (11-3 ATS since 92), while Florida might not show much in first two before trip to Knoxvul... also might not have kinks ironed out but JEESUS Urban has a lot of talent there and the second year is usually the one where the Spread Option takes off for him. I'm not trying to beat him, that's for sure. Pass.
Wake Forest, I made right where it is now. Not in any hurry to take Cuse when it opened 19 however. Another new offense there and they just stink, while Wake could be as good as they've been in Grobe's six years... They are traditionally a horrible fave and against non-con teams ATS, so I'll sit.
Texas Tech awfully high but I would have them or no one, considering their record in these spots in the past (11-1-1 L13 ATS in home openers)... Leach got his blue-chip QB he's been yearning after and this could turn into a west Texas track meet early.
No opinion whatsoever in Norman. Would not be in a hurry to lay 20-plus with OU after the debacle of 05; UAB should be better than some of you Big 12 guys give them credit for and they could keep this one close for awhile.
No opinion in Pittsburgh, though I do favor the home team a little and might make a small play based on Big Al/Denny facts in their thread. See it for more info...
Washington State's value has been sucked dry, but it was gone long ago, so no one really got it. I was just happy to get three-plus scores with a team that caught very few breaks last year and has enough talent back that they won't be intimidated by a trip to Auburn. This game could be close well into the second half and while I won't call for the outright win, I think the Cougs will have their chances....
Prediction: Auburn 24, Washington State 16
The play: Washington State plus 14.5 for a medium bet
Notre Dame's defense does not impress me one bit and while they should score at will most of the year, I think a full off-season for the GT staff (and others) to prepare for the Weis offense should make a difference. Reggie Ball doesn't have Ohio State talent around him but I do like 4-year starters in big-time atmospheres. He's already been there with teams that have beaten ranked foes Auburn, Clemson, Maryland, Auburn again and Miami; and covered as more-than-touchdown dogs against Florida State and NC State in the Ball Era. Now they are at home and have most of their offense back and the total in this one looks WAY too low considering I expect each team to eclipse 30 despite the rule changes. It will be exciting and don't be surprised if Tech pulls the upset. Nevertheless, take the points.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 38, Notre Dame 34
The play: GT plus 7 for a medium bet
There is loads of sharp money on Arky and I know all about trying to beat it, even with McFaddon playing. I'm just not sold that they are going to be this good, this fast. USC recruits better than anyone, so even though we don't know the names of their players, they should still be good enough to win by more than a touchdown in Fayetteville. But I sure hate getting stupid in laying young road chalk.
Prediction: USC 31, Arkanasas 21
The play: USC -8 for a small bet. May add a tad more if goes to -7.
Looking at Rice plus 14.5. Yes they will suck. Yes, Houston will be competitive but I cannot ignore the rivalry aspect and them having this sort of HD and dog record in the past period makes me think they will at least play hard and show UH some things they didn't expect early for the new coach. Contemplating small play on Rice plus three scores.
Also think Arizona is too low but not betting that one either; need to see one from each team.
Nothing stands out in the shit games, although Army at -4 would give me a little more interest even though I made it just that... Think there is good talent there but god, laying points on the road???
Thoughts, comments, etc., all welcome.... Best of luck to a prosperous opening weekend...
:shake:
