Saturday's CFB...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Navy is looking for its second ten-win season in three years, and the nation's top rushing offense will be looking for its best win this season. Sure, athletically and talent-wise, Navy doesn't even belong on the same field as BC. But with the execution of the offense, and the gritty play of the D, this is a chance for the Naval Academy to make a big statement against BCS competition today. The Middies have been nothing short of superb in their last two bowl games.

The Eagles only allowed 90 rushing yards per game, were second in the nation in turnover margin, and have an efficient passing attack going against an average Midshipmen secondary. Navy quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada has to be nearly flawless. Stepping in when starter Brian Hampton got knocked out for the season, the sophomore struggled early, getting thrown to the wolves against Rutgers and Notre Dame, and then started to figure out what he was doing and got the offense moving. Kaheaku-Enhada needs to quickly read what BC's tendencies are and he has to get the ball to his outside runners where they can do something with it. Yes, star fullback Adam Ballard is out after breaking his leg against Army, and that will hurt. Without him, Navy doesn't have nearly the inside presence it had this season, though Matt Hall saw plenty of action before Ballard emerged in 2005 and is hardly new to the position. While not the pounder Ballard is, Hall can be effective.

If the linebackers overpursue and try to make every play for BC, if Ryan isn't sharp, and if the team is a little flat because it's "only Navy", and because of the coaching change, the Middies ought to win it.

Sure, BC will "want" to play hard for their D-Coordinator, considering he might get to stay on the staff. But the BC athletic director has already hired Green Bay assistant coach Jeff Jagodzinski to take over for O'Brien.
Let me say it again. The Middies have been nothing short of impressive under Johnson, and their last two bowl games have been great performances. Expect another strong effort again today.

Will it be enough? I'm taking a more than a touchdown to find out. Seven of BC's games have been decided by seven or less. Here's the eighth today. BC is 1-5-1 as a favorite and was 1-4 away from home ATS. Navy is 15-4 in its last 19 as a dog and 13-3 in its last 16 away from Annapolis.

Prediction: Navy 24, Boston College 23
The play: Navy plus 7.5 -115 for a big bet.

Back with thoughts on the others a little later...
Good luck!

:shake:
 
I lean to Navy here too Rex. Couple things that bother me though are the loss of Ballard and whether Navy can get any pass rush on Ryan. Ryan can be very dangerous when he has a lot of time to throw, and I would have to say he has been the best QB this season in the ACC. Navy will be prepared though we can count on that. GL!
 
This certainly looks like the right side to me Rex.

I also love the coaching distraction along with taking a service academy in bowl season (service academies are 19-6 ATS in bowl games since 1974, and Navy has covered their last two bowl appearances (5-1 ATS in their last six) and the distractions that BC is facing. I would not be surprised at a SU Navy win.:shake:
 
I think BC has the size up front to dominate this game. But Paul Johnson is the best in game coach there it is. He will make adjustments and keep this game close. This smells like one of those games where which team is more motivated. Like Kentucky vs Clemson..
 
Thanks fellas. Timmy, congrats on your Turtles last night. That was the team I was expecting to see against West Virginia. I did have 2H UNDER which was nice... their defense really controlled things.

Thanks JML and ABCs, GL to us...
 
A question to ya Rex? Did you already pull the trigger on this one? I see the line moving up, and with this being my biggest problem as a capper ( knowing when to jump on a line ) I was thinking about waiting closer to gametime on this one and Iowa as I think both lines should climb closer to kickoff? Your thoughts?
 
JML: It's always tough to tell who is going to be where. For what I can see at the office, a select few wise-guys mostly like Navy while other wise guys and everyone else all like the favorite. I think dog money will come at 7.5, while favorite money will come at 7. You could wait. Public $ on most faves have been moving these things up most of the bowl season so far. Don't see why that won't continue with Tejas today...
 
JML: It's always tough to tell who is going to be where. For what I can see at the office, a select few wise-guys mostly like Navy while other wise guys and everyone else all like the favorite. I think dog money will come at 7.5, while favorite money will come at 7. You could wait. Public $ on most faves have been moving these things up most of the bowl season so far. Don't see why that won't continue with Tejas today...
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Thanks fellas. Timmy, congrats on your Turtles last night. That was the team I was expecting to see against West Virginia. I did have 2H UNDER which was nice... their defense really controlled things.

Thanks JML and ABCs, GL to us...
Click to expand...

Thanks Rex, really enjoyed the game. Nice to see MD defense play as well as they did last night. I was concerned about Painter being able to get something going in the passing game but MD really controlled the LOS on both sides of the ball. Trying to get a little capping done before heading out to Epcot for a little round the world drinking this afternoon. Talked to Sy yesterday and was gonna try to hook up last night after the game but I was just too hammered after drinking all day and during the game. Had to pull the plug, but I'm going to give him a shout today. GL on the day!
 
Yes, give SY a call. I was talking to him on the messenger and he was trying to decide what to do; he had 2 mammitas on the line. I told him that he ought to meet up with you for a beer or 3 and then send you in the right direction (in whatever that might have been hehehe) before going on his mammita hunt. Then again, he was talking to a Brazilian chick on his webcam right as the Maryland and Texas Tech games started, so he mighta already been preoccupied, hahaha...
 
Bad halftime line. Cascade number is closest to being right.

Navy never punted.

They lead by 5. They want to try to make BC win the game outright.

Navy receives the kick.

The play: Navy plus 6.5 flat for a medium bet.

GL!
 
Thanks cash and Cruz...

Gonna have to sweat it out to the end I'mma fraid...

No opinion at all in the middle game. Texas struggled down the stretch but there's a good chance they will play well today. Most money at the office is on Texas so I'll root for Iowa but I have no opinion myself. Will likely get involved at the half and have some stuff written up later for the last game.

GL!
 
I tailed you on the game and was pulling for your 2nd 1/2 play, very poor play calling by Navy coach late giving his player a chance to screw up, late in the game time winding down he should not be calling pitch outs, it is a shame because those Navy kids played better than BC and deserved to win it on the field. It's never easy Rex, keep up the great work!
 
Thanks fellas. A little halftime fun for me in Texas/Iowa. Momentum switch at the break. Iowa should be up 21-3. Instead, they turn it over, other team goes 3-for-3 on third down on the next drive, and then scores with no time left. Now they get the ball first. Ouch.

Total is too low. My lines were Texas -7 -115 or -7 1/2 even money. Total should be 27 over -115.

The plays: OVER 25.5 for a small bet.
Texas -7 plus 105 for a small bet

Good luck!
 
The Peach Bowl got a good matchup here between two teams that had bigger aspirations in mind at the start of the season. Georgia has struggled most of the season. A sign of problems was present early on, as third-string quarterback Joe Cox had to throw two fourth-quarter touchdown passes to get the three-touchdown favored Dawgs past winless and punchless Colorado, 14-13. After Vandy won between the hedges three weeks after that, true freshman QB Matt Stafford was handed the keys to the offense, and promptly lost 2 of 3, including a game in Lexington. Yes, he's gotten better. But he'll have his hands full in this one.

How good is the VT defense? I think it's the best in America. The Hokies have seen several pedestrian offenses. That, I'll concede. But this Jorja edition is no better than most of them. Tech only allowed 10 touchdowns on defense the entire season!!! In the 10 wins, the Hokies pitched four shutouts, allowed a total of three meaningful touchdowns and outscored opponents 282-52.

Georgia's defense is not too far behind. But Stafford has thrown eight INT's in the last five games and is still learning. The VT receivers are speedy and they have depth at wideout, a severe counter to the sorry Jorja receivers. Sophomore Brandon Ore had 200-plus yards on the ground in back-to-back games earlier in the season and should be healthy after the ankle injury kept him out of the season finale.

V-Tech kicker Pace (36-for-40 FG's the last two years) is better there and the Hokie special teams could well be good for a touchdown (as they almost always are against teams who haven't seen their special teams). That alone could be enough here.

The Hokies became one of the nation's best teams over the second half of the season, going 6-0 with four of the wins over Clemson, Miami, Southern Miss, and ACC champion Wake Forest, by a combined score of 144-23.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 23, Jorja 13


The play: V-Tech -2.5 (-120) for a big bet.

UNDER 38 for a small bet.

Good luck!

:cheers:
 
No longer the peach bowl..

Good luck on your under, it will be a bad night if your other bet hits though

BTW i can promise you that Va Techs kicker is not better than UGA's..Stafford did struggle early in the year, but what about his last 2 games?
 
2005 — Kicked field goals of 42 and 23 yards in spring game...drilled a 58-yard field goal, which tied for third in school history and set the Georgia record for the longest field goal without a tee, versus Louisiana-Monroe...also scored a career-high 14 points versus Louisiana-Monroe...named one of the Lou Groza Collegiate Placekicker Award Top Three Stars for the Week for his performance against ULM...connected on a 56-yard field goal versus Kentucky and hit a pair of field goals in the SEC Championship Game win over LSU, including a 51-yard kick which tied for the longest kick in championship game history...at conclusion of regular season, led the SEC in scoring with 114 points (8th nationally among kickers) and field goals (7th, 1.77 per game)... named one of 20 national semifinalists for the Lou Groza Place Kicker Award, presented by the FedEx Orange Bowl...named first team All-SEC by the Associated Press and the SEC Coaches and All-America third team by the Associated Press...Best Games - 3 FG (including a 58-yarder), 5 PATs vs ULM....2006 – All-America candidate...pre-season All-SEC first team
Click to expand...

He was out the last few games and will be back tonight, although his leg isnt fully recovered. As far as punt returners go we are better there as well
 
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