SaturDayBases

bloodhound

bloodhound

Sniffing out wins
two winning days

tuff slate of games for me today
been thru the games once and these are the only multi U plays I like so far...still looking

discussion if wanted, comments welcome

GLTA

966 Cleveland Indians* -1 -119 vs Chicago White Sox x2...

975 Los Angeles Angels* -1 -145 vs Texas Rangers x2 ...

958 New York Mets* -1 +127 vs Miami Marlins x2 ...
 
959 Washington Nationals* -130 vs Philadelphia Phillies x half
 959 Washington Nationals/Philadelphia Phillies* Over 6 -186 x half
 
961 Pittsburgh Pirates* -105 vs Cincinnati Reds x half

964 Los Angeles Dodgers* -104 vs San Diego Padres x 1
 
963 San Diego Padres/Los Angeles Dodgers* Under 7½ -125 x1

965 Chicago White Sox/Cleveland Indians* Over 8 -130 x1
 
Bloody, as of now I'm leaning Bosox Over and Angels as my big Over play. I'll confirm when the lineups are out.
 
Add Chisox and Giants over on the list. Glad to see u on a couple of the same so far! Always a really good sign.
 
wiseplayer said:
Bloody, as of now I'm leaning Bosox Over and Angels as my big Over play. I'll confirm when the lineups are out.
Click to expand...

the btp ump in tex is West who Over 14-3-2

i dont doubt that the Angels hi Mikolas hard but i dont know what tex can do with Weaver

glad u like the bosox as i want in love with any totals today


GL Wise
 
hey az1538, there is a runline calculator you can use? you bet a certain amount on the ML and the -1.5.. but i cant seem to find the site
 
georgioly said:
what do you use to compute those -1s ? do you have a site that you use? thanks!!
Click to expand...

I use 5dimes for all of my RL's -1 1.5 and 2.5

The -1 RL is typically my fav play on any big juice play

I dont do the calculation root that some use

GL georgioly


I should qualify this statement.
""The -1 RL is typically my fav play on any big juice play"" ....as long as I like the matchup....If i like the big favorite side but think it could be a one run game I am certainly no afraid to lay -220 on the ML side

:) :)
 
Last edited:
bloodhound said:
I use 5dimes for all of my RL's -1 1.5 and 2.5

The -1 RL is typically my fav play on any big juice play

I dont do the calculation root that some use

GL georgioly


I should qualify this statement.
""The -1 RL is typically my fav play on any big juice play"" ....as long as I like the matchup....If i like the big favorite side but think it could be a one run game I am certainly no afraid to lay -220 on the ML side

:) :)
Click to expand...
I think its worth a comparison to check, often the drop down -1 is not as favorable imo. GL Blood.
 
Needless to say after watching the Bosox, Chisox and Giants games, my Angels Overs became a no play. I'm amazed how much of what I do during the week plays out the exact opposite on the weekends. This is my 1st week at baseball and I've already learned a ton. Next up for me is Dodgers under.
 
Timh said:
I think its worth a comparison to check, often the drop down -1 is not as favorable imo. GL Blood.
Click to expand...

Thanks Tim....I have looked at this method of ML/RL combination computation and I just cant see the value in it compared to just playing the flat -1 RL. I agree the odds are slightly better but when u take into account that 28% of the games are one run games and the -1.5 RL is going to lose and the -1 RL is going to push and save me some coin, then its just not worth the effort assuming one has the -1 RL available to them. Back when I could use Pinny they had a -2 Rl that I used effectively also. As U can tell I just dont like that ''hook' and will go out of my way to buy it to an even ''key'' # . btw I typically use the same thought process when buying runs going with the +1 instead of the +1.5 using the +1 run just as a bit of insurance against a flat out loss
But then again I am old , hard headed and set in my ways ....But Always appreciate my friends trying to help me learn. Thanks

==============================
Needless to say after watching the Bosox, Chisox and Giants games, my Angels Overs became a no play. I'm amazed how much of what I do during the week plays out the exact opposite on the weekends. This is my 1st week at baseball and I've already learned a ton. Next up for me is Dodgers under.
Click to expand...
Wise, U did getting off of the Angels Over

GL


and as far as my Saturday, we went 9-4-(2) two pushes caused by the - 1 RL's that I play, but better than a loss, Wire has accused me of playing for the tie instead of the win LOL) +5.56 on the day and up ruffly 61 U
 
bloodhound said:
Thanks Tim....I have looked at this method of ML/RL combination computation and I just cant see the value in it compared to just playing the flat -1 RL. I agree the odds are slightly better but when u take into account that 28% of the games are one run games and the -1.5 RL is going to lose and the -1 RL is going to push and save me some coin, then its just not worth the effort assuming one has the -1 RL available to them. Back when I could use Pinny they had a -2 Rl that I used effectively also. As U can tell I just dont like that ''hook' and will go out of my way to buy it to an even ''key'' # . btw I typically use the same thought process when buying runs going with the +1 instead of the +1.5 using the +1 run just as a bit of insurance against a flat out loss
But then again I am old , hard headed and set in my ways ....But Always appreciate my friends trying to help me learn. Thanks

==============================

Wise, U did getting off of the Angels Over

GL


and as far as my Saturday, we went 9-4-(2) two pushes caused by the - 1 RL's that I play, but better than a loss, Wire has accused me of playing for the tie instead of the win LOL) +5.56 on the day and up ruffly 61 U
Click to expand...
Blood I think you misunderstood my point. The tool calculates the weighted average risk on both the -1.5 and straight ML bet so that if it does end on one run you push also. The benefit is the lower juice if you happen to lose all the way around. For example: Atl -145 on ML and RL -1.5 are +130. To win 100 you are going to risk 63.04 on the ML at -145 and 43.48 on the RL. So the risk and payouts look like this:

ML -145 63.04/43.48
RL +130 43.48/56.52
Total 106.52/100

So if the game lands on 1 run you win the ML bet (43.48) and lose the -1.5 RL bet (43.48) and it is a push. Just the same as if you played the drop down -1 run line at 5D. The difference is that if you happen to lose both most likely the odds on the -1 dropdown were higher than 106.52/100 so you are paying more juice on the losers. The -1 is best on home favorites and not good on road favorites. Check out this article for some more detail on that http://www.icontact-archive.com/2ekDGgCLjYZ8NoDUJBRRXyhLSvAtMnjI?w=2 Hope this helps.
 
Timh said:
Blood I think you misunderstood my point. The tool calculates the weighted average risk on both the -1.5 and straight ML bet so that if it does end on one run you push also. The benefit is the lower juice if you happen to lose all the way around. For example: Atl -145 on ML and RL -1.5 are +130. To win 100 you are going to risk 63.04 on the ML at -145 and 43.48 on the RL. So the risk and payouts look like this:

ML -145 63.04/43.48
RL +130 43.48/56.52
Total 106.52/100

So if the game lands on 1 run you win the ML bet (43.48) and lose the -1.5 RL bet (43.48) and it is a push. Just the same as if you played the drop down -1 run line at 5D. The difference is that if you happen to lose both most likely the odds on the -1 dropdown were higher than 106.52/100 so you are paying more juice on the losers. The -1 is best on home favorites and not good on road favorites. Check out this article for some more detail on that http://www.icontact-archive.com/2ekDGgCLjYZ8NoDUJBRRXyhLSvAtMnjI?w=2 Hope this helps.
Click to expand...

Thank U Tim for being patient with the ole hound....I will definitely give it some more study as it appears that u have already done.
I understand what u are telling me and now I need some historic #s to let it sink in. :)
Appreciate ur time to explain my friend
 
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