Saturday
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BEGINNING, THURSDAY, JUNE 9
N.Y. Mets at Milwaukee (4) 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th
The Mets swept a three game set from the Brewers earlier this year (+$300) but Milwaukee is playing better now and could have success this weekend at Miller Park. New York has a dismal team BA (.234) and Milwaukee checks in with a 3.35 ERA among starters in their last 11 outings. New York has been a losing proposition in night games (-$660) so we’ll go with the home team in the two evening contests. In addition, the Brewers are averaging an impressive 4.7 runs per game vs. lefthanders (+$390), so we’ll take a shot against Steven Matz when he takes his turn. BEST BET: Brewers in night games/Brewers vs. Matz.
Baltimore at Toronto (4) 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th
The Orioles took 2 of 3 from this team in their first meeting, but Toronto has been very hot in recent days (9-2, +$775 in their last 11, averaging 5.5 runs per game at the plate). Their pitching now ranks 2nd best in the American League (3.58 ERA) and Baltimore has a losing record outside of Camden Yards. The Blue Jays have gotten outstanding work from Aaron Sanchez (2.99 ERA in 11 starts) and Marco Estrada (2.41 in 11 starts), both of whom will be on the a mound at Rogers Centre this weekend. The O’s are 7-11 (-$355) vs. righties on the road so far. BEST BET: Ar. Sanchez/Estrada.
BEGINNING, FRIDAY, JUNE 10
Philadelphia at Washington (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Phillies have given their fans some thrills since opening day, but they’ve been in a tailspin lately (2-8, -$610 last 10 days) as the offense sputters (.230 team BA, averaging just under 3.0 runs per game so far). Not good when you are facing the 2nd best pitching staff in the NL (Nats 3.07 team ERA). All five Washington starters are flashing excellent form, so the Phillies will be hard pressed to salvage a single victory this weekend. Prices will be inflated but we like the home team throughout. BEST BET: Nationals in all games.
St. Louis at Pittsburgh (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
Both these teams are fading fast from contention for the NL Central title, as the Cubs continue to romp. The Pirates have gotten the best of it in head to head play so far (5-1, +$420) and their team BA (.277 is tops in the league). But St. Louis has a formidable offense as well (5.4 runs per game) and they have been profitable on the road (+$360) so caution is advised. We like Pittsburgh when they take on Jaime Garcia (-$305 in 11 starts), given their strong output vs. lefties (5.8 runs per game). We’ll hold off on the rest of the series for now. BEST BET: Pirates vs. J. Garcia.
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The best team in MLB takes on the worst in what looks like a very lopsided match-up. Chicago checks in with a 2.56 ERA, they average 5.5 runs per game at the plate, and they’ve built a 10 game lead in the NL Central. The Braves are a pitiful 6-23 here at Turner Field (-$1610), and they average a mere 3.0 runs per game on offense. However, prices on this series will be exorbitant, probably in excess of 2 to 1 throughout. If it doesn’t get any higher we’ll jump in, but a single victory by Atlanta could be expensive, so be careful. BEST BET: Cubs at -200 or less.
San Diego at Colorado (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Padres have gotten the best of this team in head to head play so far (6-2, +$470) but the pitching has been dreadful in recent days (8.08 ERA among starters last 10) and now James Shields has been sent to the White Sox. The Rockies are 4-7 in their last 11 (-$475) and their pitching ranks next to last in the league (5.19 ERA). But they have a good one in Tyler Chatwood (+$330, 2.99 ERA in 11 starts) and he’s due to take a turn at Petco this weekend. SD is only 14-27 (-$720) vs. righties so far. BEST BET: Chatwood.
Miami at Arizona (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Marlins have kept themselves above .500 and well within reach of a post-season spot if they can keep it up. They swept the Diamondbacks in a three game series at Miami (+$310) and they’ve turned a fat profit on the road thus far (+$995). They have an 8-2 record vs. lefthanders (+$970, averaging 5.1 runs per game) and they are likely to come up against a couple of southpaws at Chase Field this weekend. Arizona has been a disaster when playing in this ballpark (9-20, -$1530) so we’ll try our luck with the scrappy road team. BEST BET: Marlins vs. lefthanders.
L.A. Dodgers at San Francisco (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Giants are riding high atop the NL West, but there’s still plenty of time for LA to close the gap. The teams are well matched in terms of pitching (SF 3.55 ERA, LA 3.34) and they’ve been competitive with one another in head to head play. But Clayton Kershaw looks dominating as ever, leading the Dodgers to victories in 11 of his first 12 starts (+$740, 1.46 ERA). Scott Kazmir has looked very sharp as well (0.75 ERA last two outings) and both LA southpaws are likely to see action here. Prices at ATT Park should be reasonable, so we’ll take a shot with both of them as the Dodgers look to stay close in the division. BEST BET: Kazmir/Kershaw.
Detroit at N.Y. Yankees (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The sharp slide by the White Sox coupled with inconsistent play by KC and Cleveland has left the AL Central wide open. The Tigers are pitching better in recent days (3.51 ERA among starters last 10) and we like their chances vs. the floundering Yankees. New York is the lowest scoring team in the AL this year (.236 team BA) and their pitching ranks a disappointing 10th (4.23 ERA). They’ve been horrible in night games (16-23, -$890) and the first two games of this series are evening affairs. We’ll stay away from C.C. Sabathia, who’s returned to top form after nine starts (2.55 ERA). But the rest of the New York rotation is fair game, and The Tigers are profitable vs. righties (+$490). BEST BET: Tigers unless opposed by Sabathia.
Houston at Tampa Bay (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Astros are surging after sweeping the A’s at Minute Maid Park last weekend. They’ve won 10 of their last 12 (+$770) and are just shy of .500, remarkable considering how poorly they performed early on. The Rays are mired in last place in the AL East (-$845 overall) and they’ve had difficulty scoring runs, especially here at Tropicana Field (only 2.8 per game vs. righthanders so far). Houston has several righthanded starters who are picking up the pace in recent days, and they should shut down Tampa’s anemic attack without much difficulty. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Rays.
Boston at Minnesota (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Red Sox continue to battle with Baltimore atop the AL East, benefiting from baseball’s most dominant offense. Boston checks in with a .293 team BA, averaging just shy of 6.0 runs per game, and they’ll get a chance to pad their stats against the most dismal pitching staff in the AL (Twins 5.04 team ERA). Minnesota is only 9-18 playing here at Target Field (-$910) and they are averaging just 3.7 runs per game at the plate. In this very one sided series we’ll stick with the visitor throughout. The home team will be fortunate to salvage a victory. BEST BET: Red Sox in all games.
Kansas City at Chicago W. Sox (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The White Sox were dominating the American League early in the year, but they’ve fallen fast and hard (2-8, -$605 in the last 10 days) and they find themselves perilously close to dropping below .500. They’ve already been manhandled by the defending champs in head to head play (only 1-5, -$515) but we wouldn’t count them out just yet. They still possess the 2nd best pitching staff in the league (3.61 ERA) and they’ll be facing a Kansas City team that is only 11-19 outside of Kaufman Stadium (-$815). They’ll send their two lefty aces to the mound (Chris Sale 2.54 ERA, and Carlos Quintana 2.13)
and we like their chances. BEST BET: Sale/Quintana.
Cleveland at L.A. Angels (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Indians continue their west coast swing following a dramatic sweep of rival Kansas City at Progressive Field last weekend. Their pitching appears greatly improved (3.77 ERA, 3rd best in the league) and they’ve been very profitable in night games in all settings (+$745). The Angels are well back in the division standings, fighting to stay ahead of Oakland and out of the AL West basement as their pitching woes continue (4.30 ERA, 11th in the league). The Angels have been a money-burner when playing at Anaheim (-$675) and none of their current starters give us much cause for concern. BEST BET: Indians in night games.
Texas at Seattle (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
Terrific series between the top contenders in the AL West, a rivalry in which the Rangers have taken 6 of the first 9 meetings (+$385). Seattle is having a fine year (3.80 team ERA, .261 team BA) but they’ve not fared well here at Safeco Field (12-14, -$870), so Texas looks like an excellent value. Texas has racked up a huge profit vs. righthanders this year (+$1660) and they’ll face at least a couple this weekend. Even Felix Hernandez appears beatable (4.50 ERA last two outings) so look for the Rangers to stay on top in this competitive division. BEST BET: Rangers vs. righthanders.
Oakland at Cincinnati (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
Not a pretty inter-league match-up, as two of the worst teams in baseball square off at Great American Ballpark. The Reds are winless vs. the American League so far (0-7, -$700), following sweeps by Cleveland & Seattle, and their pitching is by far the worst in MLB (5.63 team ERA). But it’s hard to feel much enthusiasm for the beleaguered Athletics, a team whose rotation remains in shambles (5.57 ERA among starters in the last 10 days). The availability of Rich Hill, Oakland’s only reliable arm, is uncertain, so we’ll just steer clear of this one for now. BEST BET: None.
BEGINNING, THURSDAY, JUNE 9
N.Y. Mets at Milwaukee (4) 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th
The Mets swept a three game set from the Brewers earlier this year (+$300) but Milwaukee is playing better now and could have success this weekend at Miller Park. New York has a dismal team BA (.234) and Milwaukee checks in with a 3.35 ERA among starters in their last 11 outings. New York has been a losing proposition in night games (-$660) so we’ll go with the home team in the two evening contests. In addition, the Brewers are averaging an impressive 4.7 runs per game vs. lefthanders (+$390), so we’ll take a shot against Steven Matz when he takes his turn. BEST BET: Brewers in night games/Brewers vs. Matz.
Baltimore at Toronto (4) 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th
The Orioles took 2 of 3 from this team in their first meeting, but Toronto has been very hot in recent days (9-2, +$775 in their last 11, averaging 5.5 runs per game at the plate). Their pitching now ranks 2nd best in the American League (3.58 ERA) and Baltimore has a losing record outside of Camden Yards. The Blue Jays have gotten outstanding work from Aaron Sanchez (2.99 ERA in 11 starts) and Marco Estrada (2.41 in 11 starts), both of whom will be on the a mound at Rogers Centre this weekend. The O’s are 7-11 (-$355) vs. righties on the road so far. BEST BET: Ar. Sanchez/Estrada.
BEGINNING, FRIDAY, JUNE 10
Philadelphia at Washington (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Phillies have given their fans some thrills since opening day, but they’ve been in a tailspin lately (2-8, -$610 last 10 days) as the offense sputters (.230 team BA, averaging just under 3.0 runs per game so far). Not good when you are facing the 2nd best pitching staff in the NL (Nats 3.07 team ERA). All five Washington starters are flashing excellent form, so the Phillies will be hard pressed to salvage a single victory this weekend. Prices will be inflated but we like the home team throughout. BEST BET: Nationals in all games.
St. Louis at Pittsburgh (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
Both these teams are fading fast from contention for the NL Central title, as the Cubs continue to romp. The Pirates have gotten the best of it in head to head play so far (5-1, +$420) and their team BA (.277 is tops in the league). But St. Louis has a formidable offense as well (5.4 runs per game) and they have been profitable on the road (+$360) so caution is advised. We like Pittsburgh when they take on Jaime Garcia (-$305 in 11 starts), given their strong output vs. lefties (5.8 runs per game). We’ll hold off on the rest of the series for now. BEST BET: Pirates vs. J. Garcia.
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The best team in MLB takes on the worst in what looks like a very lopsided match-up. Chicago checks in with a 2.56 ERA, they average 5.5 runs per game at the plate, and they’ve built a 10 game lead in the NL Central. The Braves are a pitiful 6-23 here at Turner Field (-$1610), and they average a mere 3.0 runs per game on offense. However, prices on this series will be exorbitant, probably in excess of 2 to 1 throughout. If it doesn’t get any higher we’ll jump in, but a single victory by Atlanta could be expensive, so be careful. BEST BET: Cubs at -200 or less.
San Diego at Colorado (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Padres have gotten the best of this team in head to head play so far (6-2, +$470) but the pitching has been dreadful in recent days (8.08 ERA among starters last 10) and now James Shields has been sent to the White Sox. The Rockies are 4-7 in their last 11 (-$475) and their pitching ranks next to last in the league (5.19 ERA). But they have a good one in Tyler Chatwood (+$330, 2.99 ERA in 11 starts) and he’s due to take a turn at Petco this weekend. SD is only 14-27 (-$720) vs. righties so far. BEST BET: Chatwood.
Miami at Arizona (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Marlins have kept themselves above .500 and well within reach of a post-season spot if they can keep it up. They swept the Diamondbacks in a three game series at Miami (+$310) and they’ve turned a fat profit on the road thus far (+$995). They have an 8-2 record vs. lefthanders (+$970, averaging 5.1 runs per game) and they are likely to come up against a couple of southpaws at Chase Field this weekend. Arizona has been a disaster when playing in this ballpark (9-20, -$1530) so we’ll try our luck with the scrappy road team. BEST BET: Marlins vs. lefthanders.
L.A. Dodgers at San Francisco (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Giants are riding high atop the NL West, but there’s still plenty of time for LA to close the gap. The teams are well matched in terms of pitching (SF 3.55 ERA, LA 3.34) and they’ve been competitive with one another in head to head play. But Clayton Kershaw looks dominating as ever, leading the Dodgers to victories in 11 of his first 12 starts (+$740, 1.46 ERA). Scott Kazmir has looked very sharp as well (0.75 ERA last two outings) and both LA southpaws are likely to see action here. Prices at ATT Park should be reasonable, so we’ll take a shot with both of them as the Dodgers look to stay close in the division. BEST BET: Kazmir/Kershaw.
Detroit at N.Y. Yankees (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The sharp slide by the White Sox coupled with inconsistent play by KC and Cleveland has left the AL Central wide open. The Tigers are pitching better in recent days (3.51 ERA among starters last 10) and we like their chances vs. the floundering Yankees. New York is the lowest scoring team in the AL this year (.236 team BA) and their pitching ranks a disappointing 10th (4.23 ERA). They’ve been horrible in night games (16-23, -$890) and the first two games of this series are evening affairs. We’ll stay away from C.C. Sabathia, who’s returned to top form after nine starts (2.55 ERA). But the rest of the New York rotation is fair game, and The Tigers are profitable vs. righties (+$490). BEST BET: Tigers unless opposed by Sabathia.
Houston at Tampa Bay (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Astros are surging after sweeping the A’s at Minute Maid Park last weekend. They’ve won 10 of their last 12 (+$770) and are just shy of .500, remarkable considering how poorly they performed early on. The Rays are mired in last place in the AL East (-$845 overall) and they’ve had difficulty scoring runs, especially here at Tropicana Field (only 2.8 per game vs. righthanders so far). Houston has several righthanded starters who are picking up the pace in recent days, and they should shut down Tampa’s anemic attack without much difficulty. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Rays.
Boston at Minnesota (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Red Sox continue to battle with Baltimore atop the AL East, benefiting from baseball’s most dominant offense. Boston checks in with a .293 team BA, averaging just shy of 6.0 runs per game, and they’ll get a chance to pad their stats against the most dismal pitching staff in the AL (Twins 5.04 team ERA). Minnesota is only 9-18 playing here at Target Field (-$910) and they are averaging just 3.7 runs per game at the plate. In this very one sided series we’ll stick with the visitor throughout. The home team will be fortunate to salvage a victory. BEST BET: Red Sox in all games.
Kansas City at Chicago W. Sox (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The White Sox were dominating the American League early in the year, but they’ve fallen fast and hard (2-8, -$605 in the last 10 days) and they find themselves perilously close to dropping below .500. They’ve already been manhandled by the defending champs in head to head play (only 1-5, -$515) but we wouldn’t count them out just yet. They still possess the 2nd best pitching staff in the league (3.61 ERA) and they’ll be facing a Kansas City team that is only 11-19 outside of Kaufman Stadium (-$815). They’ll send their two lefty aces to the mound (Chris Sale 2.54 ERA, and Carlos Quintana 2.13)
and we like their chances. BEST BET: Sale/Quintana.
Cleveland at L.A. Angels (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Indians continue their west coast swing following a dramatic sweep of rival Kansas City at Progressive Field last weekend. Their pitching appears greatly improved (3.77 ERA, 3rd best in the league) and they’ve been very profitable in night games in all settings (+$745). The Angels are well back in the division standings, fighting to stay ahead of Oakland and out of the AL West basement as their pitching woes continue (4.30 ERA, 11th in the league). The Angels have been a money-burner when playing at Anaheim (-$675) and none of their current starters give us much cause for concern. BEST BET: Indians in night games.
Texas at Seattle (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
Terrific series between the top contenders in the AL West, a rivalry in which the Rangers have taken 6 of the first 9 meetings (+$385). Seattle is having a fine year (3.80 team ERA, .261 team BA) but they’ve not fared well here at Safeco Field (12-14, -$870), so Texas looks like an excellent value. Texas has racked up a huge profit vs. righthanders this year (+$1660) and they’ll face at least a couple this weekend. Even Felix Hernandez appears beatable (4.50 ERA last two outings) so look for the Rangers to stay on top in this competitive division. BEST BET: Rangers vs. righthanders.
Oakland at Cincinnati (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
Not a pretty inter-league match-up, as two of the worst teams in baseball square off at Great American Ballpark. The Reds are winless vs. the American League so far (0-7, -$700), following sweeps by Cleveland & Seattle, and their pitching is by far the worst in MLB (5.63 team ERA). But it’s hard to feel much enthusiasm for the beleaguered Athletics, a team whose rotation remains in shambles (5.57 ERA among starters in the last 10 days). The availability of Rich Hill, Oakland’s only reliable arm, is uncertain, so we’ll just steer clear of this one for now. BEST BET: None.
