BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Over 189.5
- all my stats based on opening lines & regualtion scores
Washington
- went O/U 8-6 at an average of 207.2 points @home vs Western teams last season in games off less than 5 days rest. Only 1 of those 14 totals went lower than 185 points. Their only home game vs a Western team this season totaled 203 pts, going Under by just 3 points.
- is O/U 3-1 at an average of 202.5 points in the 2nd game of B2Bs this season. Their average off rest is 202.4 points, so any perceived tiredness affecting offense w/no rest certainly isnt applying to this team thus far.
- is O/U 7-2 at an average of 215.1 points in SU wins this season, as opposed to O/U 3-7 at an average of 191.1 points in SU losses.
- is O/U 6-3 at an average of 212.2 points @home this season, as opposed to O/U 4-6 at an average of 193.7 points on the road.
Houston
- in the TMac/Yao era for HOU, have totaled 168, 208, 216, 234 & 199 points in games vs WAS (bolded games @WAS).
- is O/U 2-8 at an average of 181.6 points on the road this season. However, they have had 3 of those Unders go under by 2 points or less, and a further Under do so by 6 points. 2-8 could easily be 5-5, if not 6-4, to Over. In fact their only road Unders to come in with room to spare, have come against MEM (*big suprise*), MIA (before Riley's lineup shakeup led to their current heavy Over run), NYK (who met HOU in the middle of a 6-1 Under home run) & last night vs CHA (without their key playmaker, Knight). Those games either Over or with just missed Overs, average 190.5 points, vs the 168.2 point average of the not-close-Unders games. Which do you think more likely with a WAS team in winning form involved?
- is O/U 0-4 at an average of 185.7 points in the second game of road B2Bs this season. These games have gone Under by 1, 1, 2 & 6 points.
Given the effort CHA gave Houston last night, and the fact TMac & Yao barely played half a game each minutes wise, means I dont think any tiredness, which has seen their previous road games on B2Bs sneak under on every occasion this season, is going to apply here tonight. As for the fact they're playing a 4th in 5 nights, I'm never one to take said situation at face value. To know the real toll such a scheduling is likely to have, is to look at what came before it to assess the real accumulative effect: Houston played 1 game in 5 days prior to this 4/5 nights, which means its only their 5th game in 10 days - Thats hardly taxing for these guys.
As far was Washington goes, you fear playing Over with them when they haven't got form on the board, and you fear playing Under when they have, its pretty much that simple. Winners of 5 out of 6, nows the time you fear playing their Unders. Oh but this is Houston, you say? hasnt stopped these teams in the Yao/TMac era from running up the scores, I see no reason why it should now. Anyone thinking this line opened too low for a Washington game hasnt been paying attention to the rate Houston has been racking up the Under results (if even only just on many occasions). Their lines had to start coming down. My biggest bet of the season to date.
I'm of course playing Jersey/Boston Under 201.5, but for a less sizable amount than the above total.
I also have a parly incl. those 2 games, and Memphis/LAC Under 187.5
- all my stats based on opening lines & regualtion scores
Washington
- went O/U 8-6 at an average of 207.2 points @home vs Western teams last season in games off less than 5 days rest. Only 1 of those 14 totals went lower than 185 points. Their only home game vs a Western team this season totaled 203 pts, going Under by just 3 points.
- is O/U 3-1 at an average of 202.5 points in the 2nd game of B2Bs this season. Their average off rest is 202.4 points, so any perceived tiredness affecting offense w/no rest certainly isnt applying to this team thus far.
- is O/U 7-2 at an average of 215.1 points in SU wins this season, as opposed to O/U 3-7 at an average of 191.1 points in SU losses.
- is O/U 6-3 at an average of 212.2 points @home this season, as opposed to O/U 4-6 at an average of 193.7 points on the road.
Houston
- in the TMac/Yao era for HOU, have totaled 168, 208, 216, 234 & 199 points in games vs WAS (bolded games @WAS).
- is O/U 2-8 at an average of 181.6 points on the road this season. However, they have had 3 of those Unders go under by 2 points or less, and a further Under do so by 6 points. 2-8 could easily be 5-5, if not 6-4, to Over. In fact their only road Unders to come in with room to spare, have come against MEM (*big suprise*), MIA (before Riley's lineup shakeup led to their current heavy Over run), NYK (who met HOU in the middle of a 6-1 Under home run) & last night vs CHA (without their key playmaker, Knight). Those games either Over or with just missed Overs, average 190.5 points, vs the 168.2 point average of the not-close-Unders games. Which do you think more likely with a WAS team in winning form involved?
- is O/U 0-4 at an average of 185.7 points in the second game of road B2Bs this season. These games have gone Under by 1, 1, 2 & 6 points.
Given the effort CHA gave Houston last night, and the fact TMac & Yao barely played half a game each minutes wise, means I dont think any tiredness, which has seen their previous road games on B2Bs sneak under on every occasion this season, is going to apply here tonight. As for the fact they're playing a 4th in 5 nights, I'm never one to take said situation at face value. To know the real toll such a scheduling is likely to have, is to look at what came before it to assess the real accumulative effect: Houston played 1 game in 5 days prior to this 4/5 nights, which means its only their 5th game in 10 days - Thats hardly taxing for these guys.
As far was Washington goes, you fear playing Over with them when they haven't got form on the board, and you fear playing Under when they have, its pretty much that simple. Winners of 5 out of 6, nows the time you fear playing their Unders. Oh but this is Houston, you say? hasnt stopped these teams in the Yao/TMac era from running up the scores, I see no reason why it should now. Anyone thinking this line opened too low for a Washington game hasnt been paying attention to the rate Houston has been racking up the Under results (if even only just on many occasions). Their lines had to start coming down. My biggest bet of the season to date.
I'm of course playing Jersey/Boston Under 201.5, but for a less sizable amount than the above total.
I also have a parly incl. those 2 games, and Memphis/LAC Under 187.5
