3 Best Bets June 17: The Cardinals Can't Win
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
Saturday, June 17, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field in Queens, New York
Team Rhythm
Many bettors don't perceive that team rhythm exists.
But it must exist because it is blatantly necessary to invoke in order to explain phenomena such as extended winning or losing streaks and the fact that a team can be losing at a much higher rate until a managerial change transpires.
Right now, the Cardinals are suffering an extended losing streak: they've lost six in a row.
More extensively, they've lost 11 of their last 13.
No matter who starts for them, they are a likely candidate to lose.
Who Starts for St. Louis
Adam Wainwright starts for the Cardinals today.
At 41, Wainwright is appearing washed-up.
With his 5.79 ERA, he's suffering the worst season of his career.
He can't get batters to chase his pitches, so he has to throw in the strike zone.
In addition to striking out fewer batters than he had before, he's struggling to induce soft contact because his stuff is so hittable partly as a consequence of its diminished velocity.
Mets' Lineup
Lefties crush Wainwright to the tune of a .392 BA and .622 slugging rate.
The Mets are thus well-equipped to dominate Wainwright, as many of their top hitters can bat from the left side of the plate: Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil are examples.
Starling Marte, Omar Narvaez, and Tommy Pham also boast excellent track records against Wainwright.
Who Starts for the Mets?
Kodai Senga starts for the Mets today.
Senga is automatic at home, where he yields a 1.93 ERA, .158 BA, and .254 slugging rate.
Best Bet: Mets ML at -146 with BetOnline
Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Diego Padres
Saturday, June 17, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Who Starts for Tampa Bay?
Zach Eflin starts for the Rays today.
Eflin is extremely reliable right now.
This might not seem to be the case based on his last start, in which he allowed four runs.
But in that start, he was unfortunate to yield a .417 BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
He actually pitched well in that he induced soft contact at a much higher rate than the rate at which he allowed hard contact.
His 1.99 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he performed individually.
Evidence for his good form is in the fact that he has yielded an FIP of 2.11 or lower in three straight starts.
During his ongoing streak, he is striking out five batters for every hitter that he walks.
He is also doing a good job of generating soft contact.
As heat maps show, he ably locates his pitches alongside the borders of the strike zone, where he uses their strong horizontal movement to toy with the batter's perception of whether a given pitch will land inside or outside the strike zone.
Eflin vs. Rays' Lineup
Eflin's three favorite pitches to throw are his sinker, cutter, and curveball.
He matches up well against the Padres who rank 25th in slugging against Eflin's primary pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Tampa Bay?
Blake Snell starts for the Rays tonight.
Similar to Eflin, Snell displays superb form.
Snell has allowed a combined total of two earned runs and 12 hits in his past four starts.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Cleveland Guardians vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Saturday, June 17, 2023 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Shane Bieber starts for Cleveland tonight.
With Bieber starting, it may seem like a no-brainer that the Guardians are favored.
But the Guardians are overvalued by oddsmakers partly because Bieber is not the same pitcher away from home.
Whereas he yields a sub-two home ERA, his ERA is 4.35 away from home.
Outside of Cleveland, opponents hit .281 and slug .449 against him.
Given his decline in quality on the road, Cleveland is 2-6, yielding -6.3 units in his away starts.
Bieber vs. Arizona's Lineup
Even mediocre lineups like that of the White Sox have crushed Bieber outside of Cleveland.
But Arizona's lineup presents a formidable matchup.
To explain, Bieber's favorite pitches to throw are a fastball, cutter, slider, and curveball.
Arizona ranks sixth in slugging .449 against his favorite pitches from righties.
Bieber struggles especially against left-handed batters.
Top Diamondback hitters will bat from the left side of the plate, examples including Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, and powerful slugger Corbin Carroll.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. also has a strong track record against Bieber, and Christian Walker shows strong form.
Who Starts for Arizona?
Tommy Henry starts for the Diamondbacks tonight.
Whereas Bieber might not be comfortable in Arizona's dry climate, Henry apparently is, because his ERA is 3.60 at home compared to 6.75 on the road.
Henry's outlook tonight is solid because he matches up so well against the Guardians' lineup.
He throws a fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider.
Cleveland ranks 26th in slugging .385 against these pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks ML at +116 with Heritage
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
Saturday, June 17, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field in Queens, New York
- The Cardinals can't win a game right now
- Adam Wainwright is having the worst season of his career
- Kodai Senga is automatic at home
Team Rhythm
Many bettors don't perceive that team rhythm exists.
But it must exist because it is blatantly necessary to invoke in order to explain phenomena such as extended winning or losing streaks and the fact that a team can be losing at a much higher rate until a managerial change transpires.
Right now, the Cardinals are suffering an extended losing streak: they've lost six in a row.
More extensively, they've lost 11 of their last 13.
No matter who starts for them, they are a likely candidate to lose.
Who Starts for St. Louis
Adam Wainwright starts for the Cardinals today.
At 41, Wainwright is appearing washed-up.
With his 5.79 ERA, he's suffering the worst season of his career.
He can't get batters to chase his pitches, so he has to throw in the strike zone.
In addition to striking out fewer batters than he had before, he's struggling to induce soft contact because his stuff is so hittable partly as a consequence of its diminished velocity.
Mets' Lineup
Lefties crush Wainwright to the tune of a .392 BA and .622 slugging rate.
The Mets are thus well-equipped to dominate Wainwright, as many of their top hitters can bat from the left side of the plate: Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil are examples.
Starling Marte, Omar Narvaez, and Tommy Pham also boast excellent track records against Wainwright.
Who Starts for the Mets?
Kodai Senga starts for the Mets today.
Senga is automatic at home, where he yields a 1.93 ERA, .158 BA, and .254 slugging rate.
Best Bet: Mets ML at -146 with BetOnline
Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Diego Padres
Saturday, June 17, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
- Zach Eflin displays dominant form
- Eflin matches up excellently against the Padres
- Blake Snell has been close to unhittable for a while
Who Starts for Tampa Bay?
Zach Eflin starts for the Rays today.
Eflin is extremely reliable right now.
This might not seem to be the case based on his last start, in which he allowed four runs.
But in that start, he was unfortunate to yield a .417 BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
He actually pitched well in that he induced soft contact at a much higher rate than the rate at which he allowed hard contact.
His 1.99 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he performed individually.
Evidence for his good form is in the fact that he has yielded an FIP of 2.11 or lower in three straight starts.
During his ongoing streak, he is striking out five batters for every hitter that he walks.
He is also doing a good job of generating soft contact.
As heat maps show, he ably locates his pitches alongside the borders of the strike zone, where he uses their strong horizontal movement to toy with the batter's perception of whether a given pitch will land inside or outside the strike zone.
Eflin vs. Rays' Lineup
Eflin's three favorite pitches to throw are his sinker, cutter, and curveball.
He matches up well against the Padres who rank 25th in slugging against Eflin's primary pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Tampa Bay?
Blake Snell starts for the Rays tonight.
Similar to Eflin, Snell displays superb form.
Snell has allowed a combined total of two earned runs and 12 hits in his past four starts.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Cleveland Guardians vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Saturday, June 17, 2023 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
- Shane Bieber is much worse outside of Cleveland
- Bieber matches up poorly against Arizona's lineup
- Cleveland is awful against Henry's pitches from lefties
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Shane Bieber starts for Cleveland tonight.
With Bieber starting, it may seem like a no-brainer that the Guardians are favored.
But the Guardians are overvalued by oddsmakers partly because Bieber is not the same pitcher away from home.
Whereas he yields a sub-two home ERA, his ERA is 4.35 away from home.
Outside of Cleveland, opponents hit .281 and slug .449 against him.
Given his decline in quality on the road, Cleveland is 2-6, yielding -6.3 units in his away starts.
Bieber vs. Arizona's Lineup
Even mediocre lineups like that of the White Sox have crushed Bieber outside of Cleveland.
But Arizona's lineup presents a formidable matchup.
To explain, Bieber's favorite pitches to throw are a fastball, cutter, slider, and curveball.
Arizona ranks sixth in slugging .449 against his favorite pitches from righties.
Bieber struggles especially against left-handed batters.
Top Diamondback hitters will bat from the left side of the plate, examples including Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, and powerful slugger Corbin Carroll.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. also has a strong track record against Bieber, and Christian Walker shows strong form.
Who Starts for Arizona?
Tommy Henry starts for the Diamondbacks tonight.
Whereas Bieber might not be comfortable in Arizona's dry climate, Henry apparently is, because his ERA is 3.60 at home compared to 6.75 on the road.
Henry's outlook tonight is solid because he matches up so well against the Guardians' lineup.
He throws a fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider.
Cleveland ranks 26th in slugging .385 against these pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks ML at +116 with Heritage
