Saturday the 14Th

[SportsNut]

Okay I know I wasnt the only dork who watched this movie as a kid....havent seen it in a good 20 years but it sticks in my mind for some reason...Jeffrey Tambor was in it I recall...anyway....going to sleep pissed I didnt take NYY +1.5 RL..

+8.33units
-0.57units
-24.80units
+17.00units
+15.90units(-0.75u)
-6.63units
+16.35units (-1.50u)
-3.75 units
+16.90units
+2.93 units (-1.00 u)
-2.92 units
+3.05 units
-4.65 units (-1.00u)

Early thoughts:
Cubbies -127 : Like Richie Hill cause the Reds havent done much vs LH's. Hill threw a gem 2 hit shutout at home vs Cincy last year. My concerns are Ramirez and DeRosa probablynot playing coupled with the long time bewteen starts ...as well as Arroyo playing the role of Dan Haren...pitch well lost twice the pitch crappy and win...an Under could look attractive

Under 9 / +1.5 Wash : Looking at the mets under since I like Shawn Hill and how he has thrown. El Duque always seems to start fast till he tweaks something no reason to get off that train. However at -250 wheres the valueif the Mets arent hitting. Lucky is an understatement for there win tonite.....

Philly -150 : Really like Hamels here. Just look how well he pitched vsHOU last season. He spun two 3 hit starts together but carried no hitters depth in both. Hamels has been pretty sharp so far . Could be Williams or Wandy going for Houston. Astros got some breaks tonite hit longballs at the right time....

SFG -120 : I dont want to be foolish and back Zito for a 3rd time but Pitt simply isnt hitting and is running there 5th starter out there. The Pirates couldnt hit Keisler the other nite and didnt look that hot vs Milton......as long as Barry plays though...

Marlins +120 : Simply fading ATL against LH with Olsen going. Davies was solid 1st turn so maybe under....

Thinking UND 8 @ STL depending on who starts for MILW...

Sox +120 : Thinking of fading Tribe vs LH which Danks is. I have to say he impressed me in outing 1 after looking lost must of the Spring. Obviously soft tossing Paul Byrd has alot to do with it as well...

Bos -150 : Schilling vs Carrasaco simple as that....LAA ending up a long trip now on the East Coast...

Balt -170 : Little concerned about Balt vs a LH but Perez battled blisters problems all spring and that or something is effecting him. Cabrera was shaky in both starts with command and holding on runners but the results were still solid....possible over 9...

TB +125 : Not so much fading Ponson as Minnesota here....Jackson was solid for 5 innings last outing and I just dont see the Twins hitting lately and dont see why the start.....

BOL:cheers: be back tmrw.....

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

lots of good intitial thoughts, Nut. agree with almost all of it.

 

[Unicorn]

Like your early thoughts. Mine are pretty much the same but I decided to pass on Was game while still thinking about the Atlanta - what I don't like is the price so maybe I'll pass on that one too if not playing them for small stake...

:cheers:

 

[Troutman]

Nut,
I like atlanta to bounce back today, they always seem to play hard after they get shelled, Also Olsen hasnt been so great this year and Davies is fighting for that starting spot....I think the braves win this one today..Gonzalez(sp) and Soriano are rested, as well as whickman, so If davies can get to the 6th or 7th they should be able to close it down,,,Left handed pitching may be of concern but I cant see the Braves dropping 3 straight here..Maybe im a Homer, but thats the way i see it...On a side note, the weather should be real crappy by tonight and its very possible the game gets postponed....

 

[chancedog]

:cheers: BOL Sportnut, haven't disected the card yet. Zito cost me his first time out told myself I wouldn't take SF again. Saturday the 14th great movie well it was then anyways funny you mention it late Friday nite I asked a girl if she had seen it and she had no idea what I was talking about.

 

[SportsNut]

Chance we dated ourselves...got curious looked it up on IMDB ad realized it came out in 81..just finished up my early shit...BOL today

Thanks Yanks26....lets see when the dust settles...BOL

Trout- I like for strengths vs weaknesses. Right now Olsen really has had some command issues but I owulnt say he has pitched well. He definetly didnt pitch well vs them in 2 of 3 last season though....As far as Davies I like the kid probably bakced him in some manner in his 1st start. Truth is Cormier is very solid as well and lets face it Mark Redman was an emergency sign and wasnt prepared for the seaosn to begin. It would shock me if he was not the guy who got booted from teh rotation. I dont think that plays into this...BOL

Unicorn- Good Luck bro...think I ma staying with most of my initial ideas today...:cheers:

 

[rufus1966]

nut,hate to bring this up in your capping thread but,remember that guy i told you about that told me to take the nba lines out of the newspaper?

well last night he sent me a e-mail telling me he was done taking my bets.i've been hitting him pretty hard,so i can understand i guess.anyway,what are my options to be able to gamble besides finding another local?i live in ohio and i don't know if there is any online books i can use.with the laws and all.

thanks,
rufus1966..............

 

[SportsNut]

Early starts

Cubbies -130 {3units} +3.00
Nats +1.5 RL +115 {3units} +3.45
WSox +120 {1unit} -1.00
Under 10 -110 Tribe {3units} +3.00
Under 9.5 -115 Det {3units} -3.45
Tigers +1.5 RL -135 {2units} +2.00
Boston -190 {3units} -2.5RL +160 {1unit} +4.60
Over 9 -115 Seattle {3units} +3.00
Phills -160 {8units} -2.5 RL +185 {2units} +11.70
Over 4.5 Philly -125 {4runs} +4.00

Thats what i expect out of myself..still made a poor decision on the WSox and passing on Cubbies and Mets Under but I can live with it...8-2 +30.30 units...now we have to fonish strong...:cheers:

Notes:
Hill is one the best up and coming LHP in baseball. The Reds still have concerns facing LH since Hamilton , Griff , Dunn are LHB. Hill shut them down last season at home and looking for the same today. Yesterday was flukish for sure I think Cincy had 1 maybe 2 hits outside ofthe 5th inning when Zambrano lost it. He was walking a tight rope early but 7 straight batters reach you pull him and Ohman walks consecutive batters with the bases juiced......Arroyo was sharper in his nite starts and Hill his day starts....desperation is starting to creep in for Pinella....the Cubbies have been so expensive early its actually ridiculous.....they are not cheap here but Hills emergence could make them cheap...

At Shea well the Mets didnt hit yesterday and this reminds of yesterdays Twins game. Shawn Hill has been solid but like all Nats has little room for error. Last year the road team was 13-5 in the series with the +1.5 RL it was 16-2. You look at NY's last 6 games they are hitting that much...2 runs and 3 runs twice each , 5 runs and 11 runs which was thanks to a 8 run bottom of the eighth...Nats are slowly hittimng better but still not cashing in on opps.....

I didnt think Danks was ready for the ML's. he went out and pitched a solid game vs Minny though and Johan. Danks did a good job vs theMinny RHs solets see if he can take it to the road...my play is fading Byrd who allowed LH to hit 360 off him last season. His was sharp in 07 debut though...He says he worked on a split in the offseason so lets see how that works...fading Tribe vs a LHSP......

Wanted to take Tor but not sure why I have a bad feeling about this. Like I said DET should struggle against hard throwing RH. Well Burnett was awful in DET already so I think we can attribute that to the cold that day. He never looked like he got a feel for the ball......Tor minus Reed Johnson and Glaus waters down the offense. Stairs is a capable replacement though. What I think is interesting is that Durbin has pitched well in the past his KC days vs Tor. Now he is a pitcher and I think in this situation may be able to duplicate the results. Most SP have bounced back from that 1st awful start.....

Boston seems to be getting into a groove. Its not that I expect Schilling to be that much better then carrasaco. Its that I expect the Sox offense to be that much better then LAA who should also be w/o Cabrera...LAA at the end of a road trip could be flat on the West Coast.....

Wanted to take TEX but passed for the over. Batista isnt 100% and struggled vs OAK. Neither has great track records vs the opponent. Both SP struggle vs LHB and there are some good ones on both sides...

The play on Philly is all about Cole Hamels. Go read the boxscores from last season and se how tough he was on Hous. Now granted HOU added Lee and is playing well and Philly isnt but the young guys dont get the line respect the vets have despite being better in most cases. Though Williams in his career has an ERA a 1 pt higher in Day starts 4.81 vs 3.77 . Most of the Phillies hit Willaims well in limited atbats and he struggled in hi slongcareer vs Philly...Please find Nunez a spot today since he is 10/19 lifetime....Hous has not done much vs Duke , Gorzelanny and Lilly yet......I expect some runs here.....

BOL

 

[SportsNut]

nut,hate to bring this up in your capping thread but,remember that guy i told you about that told me to take the nba lines out of the newspaper?

well last night he sent me a e-mail telling me he was done taking my bets.i've been hitting him pretty hard,so i can understand i guess.anyway,what are my options to be able to gamble besides finding another local?i live in ohio and i don't know if there is any online books i can use.with the laws and all.

thanks,
rufus1966..............

If you cant find another local start looking at online books. Most still take American players(not PinnacleSports)...just go the sportsbook discussion area you get alot more indepth answers then I can tell you....:cheers:

 

[Sparky1019]

BOL SportsNut :cheers:

Love the BoSox today. money;

 

[rufus1966]

been callin around all afternoon.i think i found another local.his brother.lol

but he's uses pinnacle lines.

don't want to mess with online if i can keep from it.

thanks and g'l always.....

 

[The Farm]

:cheers: I am really liking Zito today nut..
GL today

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks Sparky ...BOL

I think you better off with Pinny lines then newspaper lines anyway...hell 10 tens year ago here in NY we were already calling the offshores as our locals...BOL Rufus

Farm...I already bit just deciding if I am missing something with him .....BOL

Well early on I already wish I played DET ML instead of +1.5 , as well as played the under in NYM had it at 9 -120 last nite but wiggled out today , and trusted myself to realixe Wsox bad play today...started 3 units finished at 1 unit but Cle was so obvious......just didnt hit me till about 12:45...

BOL be beack:cheers:

 

[JRose5]

SN,
What can you tell me about Jeremy Guthrie? His career numbers look pretty terrible and the times he has faced the Royals, he has gotten hit pretty good (6.10 ERA). Unfortunately, the guys who have hit him best (Berroa and Gathright) are in Omaha (pretty limited at bats for all). Really looks like a good spot for the Royals and Greinke. KC has continued to not hit well, but I think that will come around. And, they have hit better against right handers in day games. Probably will play the 1st 5 innings as the bullpen is capable of blowing a lead at any time. Thoughts? Thanks and GL .

 

[SportsNut]

SN,

What can you tell me about Jeremy Guthrie? His career numbers look pretty terrible and the times he has faced the Royals, he has gotten hit pretty good (6.10 ERA). Unfortunately, the guys who have hit him best (Berroa and Gathright) are in Omaha (pretty limited at bats for all). Really looks like a good spot for the Royals and Greinke. KC has continued to not hit well, but I think that will come around. And, they have hit better against right handers in day games. Probably will play the 1st 5 innings as the bullpen is capable of blowing a lead at any time. Thoughts? Thanks and GL .

This is how I approach start starters and its sort of simplistic. I dont over rely on old numbers basically cause they cant be trusted. A guy like Guthrie most of hsi work and ML career he is the last man to get called on. So if he is the pen he tends to be the last reliever used tough to stay sharp that way. If he makes a spot start its the same deal or he is getting called up form the minors and you dont know what type of his rest he is on. Pitchers for the most part are creatures of habit they mostly want to be in some routine.

So with that said I dont recall ever seeing Guthrie pitch or reading a scouting report about his pitches. What I do know is that I was shocked that Cle gave up on him. He was a recent 1st round draft pick in 2002 and was solid @ AAA last season. Perfect canditate to rise up cause he seemed healthy and might carry a chip. He looked real sharp this spring from what I read and the fact he has been introduced into a routine thanks to ST makes me think he will have good stuff tmrw since he has worked twice in extended relief already. What that is I truly dont know. His old career numbers are useless. I would weigh his ST stats heavier then old stats. I think its safe to say though its not hard to make contact off him but his control is above average probably.

The question is about KC's offense. Grienke has been solid but I have more to look at. DO you want to take KC at even money on the road..?? Obviously the reason would be Grienke....on the surface I wouldnt expect Guthrie to get shelled...and KC has been awful in day starts esp last season so check into that further

Let you know when I have more...

 

[JRose5]

Thanks alot. Will continue to look into it. Also, not sure how relevant Greinke's past stats will be, because I think he is a totally different pitcher mentally, at this point- if that makes any sense. He has changed his whole approach and attitude. GL with the rest of the card tonight.

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks alot. Will continue to look into it. Also, not sure how relevant Greinke's past stats will be, because I think he is a totally different pitcher mentally, at this point- if that makes any sense. He has changed his whole approach and attitude. GL with the rest of the card tonight.

Absolutely agree. I uses stats more as reference points of what to expect...sort of +/- system more then anything. Numbers are hollow you have to know how to apply them..

With Grienke I think he is the pitcher now we expected after his 2004 season when he was 20 yr kid. i am sure this whole ordeal with depression has helped him grow up . Someone like Grienke I dont even look at splits or past numbers cause they are useless. thats a judgement call you have to make when looking at the info. Thats why I get frustrated when i see people say things like harnag vs Chi is value or Oswalt as a dog....how is it value if he isnt going to pitch up expectations. Thats another arguement.....

I agree with ya 1000%....:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

7 PM

Add:

Orioles -170 {4.5units} +4.50
Marlins +118 {3units} ARL +180 {.75units}PPD


Lean UNDER 9.5 ATL....


working on the 7:10 starts

BOL:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

7:10

Add:

Under 8 -110 Cards / Brewers {4units} +4.00
TB +132 {2.5units} ARL +200 {.75units} -3.25

BOL:cheers:

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks Believe....:cheers:

Add:

Over 9 -105 Arizona {4units} PUSH

BOL

Still mulling the Yankee game and SD game

 

[brewer]

hell of a day nut.

who do you like to win the teh ring in the nba?

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Neither one of your two guys you mentioned - Wells or Cabrera - are getting much run support. But I wasn't impressed with Cabrera's stuff tonight. Haven't seen enough of the Looey/Brew game to formulate an opinion on Wells yet. Will check the box and talk to a friend who also is eyeing his rating on Wells as possibly being bad (and yes, he, like me, bet MIL)...

 

[E.T.G.]

nut, im on the over w/ you in colorodo

 

[SportsNut]

Short on time....tx brewers...

rex...I got a break with O's right now...cabrera's stuff wanst impressive and he still did okay. Thats sort of the point he hasnt been sharp but limiting the damage. KC scored a bunch of cheap runs here...as for Suppan I didnt say that I liked STL . Liked Suppan coming back and know Wells is for real so I played the Under...so 3-2 suits me...I wouldnt have bet Wells here cause of the fact I though runs would be at a premium and Suppans homecoming(3.18 at Busch lyr)...BOL the rest of the way....

GL ETG.....

Was sidetracked would have played Oak +1.5 , Over 9.5 NYY and SD but holding out hope I can hit 2 of 3 at nite

 

[SportsNut]

Also Rex..... Wells wasnot getting alot run support. He got none in his 4-1 loss vs NYM. At Houston he exited with a 3-0 lead and spun a 1hitter through 7 innings...run support to me is when you look up in the 3rd inningand its 4-0....

With Cabrera he didnt get anything at Minny andwell Durbin allowed 6 when he opposed him....there success has nothing to do with run support IMO......

 

[SportsNut]

It;s late and I am tired cause I just walked in..Sick ending for my Yanks!!!

About as happy as I will be on a given day......+35.55 units...and yes I should have had a good deal more but still satisified with the overall process......

I can tell ya one thing for SUNDAY its already pooring here in NY....