Saturday/Sunday Thoughts

[JPicks]

Likely to be a rather unorganized thread. But throwing out some stuff.

Saturday Plays
Pacers -1.5
Clippers +6
Warriors +16.5



Pistons/Pacers
Pistons clinched the playoffs on Friday so watch out for late scratches on nicked up players this week. Of course that isn't the tune that Curry is singing.

As for the Pistons' playoff picture, Curry is first concerned with finishing the final three regular-season games on a high note.

"We've got to start off on the road, but we can't think about it too much right now because we really need to get this game in Indy tomorrow, and Indy's a tough matchup for us -- a tough matchup for everybody."

The Pistons end the regular season Wednesday at Miami, but Curry said the team's approach to the game will depend on what is on the line.

"If we're not playing to secure a higher seed on Wednesday, then we won't put that much emphasis on the game Wednesday," he said. "But if that game is for a higher seed, then we stay kind of with our same rotation."

So looks like the Pistons are going to scrap like hell to try to get a 5-7 seed as they should. It's still tough for me to play them @Indy while the Pacers are playing such good ball. With both offenses executing at 100% the last few games I could see this one flying over as the Pistons may not play quite the same defense as we're accustomed to on the heels of clinching. Scratch that idea as the refs are horrible for an over play. I mean real horrible.

Garretson 3-7 O/U L10 Pistons games and 0-5 L5 Pacer games
Phillips 0-5 0/U L5 Pistons games and 1-4 L5 Pacer games
Richardson 0-10 O/U L10 Pistons games and 2-8 L10 Pacer games

Lean Pacers under a bucket as I don't see how the Pistons don't have at worst a small hangover from clinching and Indy has been playing legitimately good basketball.

Pacers -1.5 Just played it.

 

[JPicks]

Jazz/Warriors
Biedrens came back last night. Does he play in utah on a b2b? I think he does and you have to wonder how effective he'll be playing 30 minutes two nights in a row with a flight included after not playing for a month?

Maggette, Ellis, Crawford, all out. Warriors still with 7 players playing.

C.J. Miles out for the Jazz. AK to start again. Boozer playing like shit. Pretty likely to take the 17 points and play the Warriors. The guys playing for the Warriors are pretty scrappy and haven't been getting shelled when they lose SU. We do have a pretty similar situation when they played a b2b @Dallas after playing @SAN where they got roughed up pretty good. Jazz have become professionals at going out to a huge lead @home and then giving it all back in the 2nd half. Will likely bet the Jazz 1st quarter, Warriors 2nd half and game.


Also just played the Clippers @+6 but haven't put up thoughts for the game. Line is moving like crazy though.

 

[JPicks]

Magic/Nets

Really want to play the Nets here as Orlando is in no man's land and has nothing to play for evidenced by the head scratching loss to the Knicks last night. Matter of fact that play may be what ruins a Nets play. Still look at the recent Magic games. Lose @hou which is more than expectable, have to have a frantic rally to beat the Grizzlies @home, and then lose SU to the Knicks. Today is a 4/5 @NJ and Howard already has the rebounding and blocks titles wrapped up. Again what are they playing for?

Nets on the other hand are 2-8 SU L10 now. What's so interesting is who they beat in those games and where. Wins over Philly and Detroit at home have me thinking they're just enjoying knocking off EC playoff teams at home. They got crushed by the Bucks in what was one of the weirdest line movements of some time, failed to cover ATS against the Lakers by 1 and 2 to the Cavs and beat Miami as a 2 point dog as well. Also just over a month ago they covered vs Boston @home.

With this being a 4/5 and the Magic playing with little desire I full expect the Nets to cover and likely win tonights game SU. Need to read some more about the game though as the line is going up rather than down. Don't see how the Magic are 7 point favs while the Lakers were just 7 point favs in this venue vs the Nets and the Cavs were 6 point favs.

Will be playing the nets, hopefully at +7 and ML


Also added Warriors @+16.5 as the line is about to move down.

 

[JPicks]

Just realized that Harris got hurt last night hence the larger line in Jersey. All makes a bit more sense now. Glad I didn't lock that one in. Yuck. Carter may also not start so that Douglas-Roberts can get some PT. Figuring out who is motivated in this one is giving me a headache. Moving on, but still like the points and the Nets. May revisit with some updated news.

 

[JPicks]

Suns/Wolves

Does PHX care that the Wolves beat them in Phoenix in January? With Al Jefferson gone and the playoff hopes dashed I'd be surprised. They'd probably like to get their revenge with a healthy squad fighting for the Wolves. Really don't' have much interest in this game as I have no idea what the Suns are going to do with playing time. Barbosa says he's still hurt with the abdominal strain, grant hill played 22 minutes yesterday, shaq played 18, and has played 20. Is that so they can all play again today or are they all going to get 12 minutes today? Not sure but I'd guess the they all play about the same minutes as yesterday minus Barbosa who I doubt plays. Would have loved to have hit the under at 228.

 

[sinkhole]

 

[metsrp86]

"These games really aren't meaning anything for us," said Richardson, who is averaging 25.2 points in his last five games versus Minnesota. "Even though we want to win them, just let (the reserves) go out and get some minutes."

 

[metsrp86]

Taking a stab at Phoenix Team Total Under 113

 

[RetroVK]

Pacers -1.5
Clippers +6
Warriors +16.5

you always only bet the elite teams ?

 

[tuck321]

The last 6 times the Suns have played b-b the smallest total reached was 238. Minn is playing on 2 days rest. Right with you on GS, taking a slightly different approach with Clippers first 5. GL

 

[JPicks]

Taking a stab at Phoenix Team Total Under 113

If I could ever get some solid updates on who's playing for how long today I'd love that play.

Pacers -1.5
Clippers +6
Warriors +16.5

you always only bet the elite teams ?

I know I love betting on shitty teams. Always have for some reason.

The last 6 times the Suns have played b-b the smallest total reached was 238. Minn is playing on 2 days rest. Right with you on GS, taking a slightly different approach with Clippers first 5. GL

With the Suns that stat is quite amazing, but I also think that's with the regulars playing normal minutes and with a purpose. Not sure we get either of those scenarios today. Clippers 1st half may be the smarter way to play that, but I'm locked in so I'll have to hope they don't implode down the stretch.

 

[Cherry Picker]

Agree 100% on the Pacers, good luck man

 

[SF_capper]

GL J. Agree with your thoughts, but going different routes: play LAC and Indi 1st Hs. I think the better teams come out flat then talk about it at halftimes to regroup and take the Ws. Don't think they cover, with -6s a close win could easily turn into covers, but same thoughts
Gonna be on Utah 1st H. I guess this is a "my home team sucks more than yours" bet bw us- heh. Just think Utah doesnt want LA, and will fuck the clips and Warriors up to vent these next 2 games.
what u think about this charlotte/Chciago game? I'm planning to wait for ht and hope chicago is down medium/small to get a mall line on them 2nd H. thoughts?
GL tonight man, very similar thoughts

 

[JPicks]

GL J. Agree with your thoughts, but going different routes: play LAC and Indi 1st Hs. I think the better teams come out flat then talk about it at halftimes to regroup and take the Ws. Don't think they cover, with -6s a close win could easily turn into covers, but same thoughts
Gonna be on Utah 1st H. I guess this is a "my home team sucks more than yours" bet bw us- heh. Just think Utah doesnt want LA, and will fuck the clips and Warriors up to vent these next 2 games.
what u think about this charlotte/Chciago game? I'm planning to wait for ht and hope chicago is down medium/small to get a mall line on them 2nd H. thoughts?
GL tonight man, very similar thoughts

Can understand both 1st half plays and maybe I should have played them the same route. Only time will tell I guess.

Also agree about Utah 1st half. They could easily be up 18 at half and turn it into an 11 point win. Just think that 16.5 was way to many for a Warriors team that is honestly playing for future contracts. Big difference when a team is out of the playoff race and all the starters have fat contracts to the wizards who are playing guys that have every scout in the league watching them. They've stayed pretty competitive w/out their stars and Utah has enough problems right now that I don't see why they win by 17+ tonight off a b2b against San Antonio. If you hit the 1st half I'd recommend your Warriors in the 2nd half.

Like the Bulls but I can't lay 9.5 points against the Bobcats. Same sentiments as yourself about a halftime scenario. This is a Larry Brown team and he won't just let them roll over and die because they're out of the playoff mix. Also was a bit turned off by Tyrus Thomas's quotes about the Bulls being able to knock off anybody they face in the playoffs.

''I think we're the most dangerous team that's going to be in the postseason in the Eastern Conference right now,'' Thomas said. ''We're the underdog right now. But I think we're going to shock a lot of people.''

Very easy to get ahead of yourself and trip on your own tongue after comments like that. It's typically at this moment that your team would fall flat on their faces after that comment. I mean at least get to .500 before talking shit about beating anybody in the conference. Just something that bothered me enough to keep me from laying big points with them.

 

[GWarner27]

i like the Clips a lot, but i'm thinking about the 1H to avoid the 2H fade and maybe we can catch Portland celebrating last night and forgetting they have a game to play 'til halftime

 

[JPicks]

i like the Clips a lot, but i'm thinking about the 1H to avoid the 2H fade and maybe we can catch Portland celebrating last night and forgetting they have a game to play 'til halftime

Blazers are 0-1 in '08 after beating the Lakers losing as 8 point favs to the Mavs SU.

0-2 SU in '07 losing as 2.5 point road favs and covering as 6.5 point road dogs to GSW.

Pretty much the basis for the play and your thoughts are dead on. Blazers have notoriously struggled off of Lakers games win/lose. Clippers players didn't come back this late in the season just to get their asses kicked on their home court. More I think about it the more I'm fine with having the full game spread. I would like to have the +7 that should be available come game time though.

 

[JPicks]

Magic/Nets

Will be playing the nets, hopefully at +7 and ML

:angry: Never played it. :angry:

 

[JPicks]

Taking a stab at Phoenix Team Total Under 113

:cheers: Nice hit man.


Well I'll just count the Clipps as a loss now and save myself the headache of paying attention to the 2nd half. 2-1 on Saturday. A bit disappointed that I didn't jump on the Nets and very happy I didn't follow my own advice and play the Jazz 1st half. Speaking of the Jazz put a fork in them for the duration of the regular season. I still have some weird suspicion that they steal one of the first two games in LA before dropping a home game and losing in 6 games. Rabid Jazz fan roommate thinks they'll get swept, but he's just pissed off. It'll be quite interesting to see how Phil and Jerry play their cards when the teams meet up for the last game of the year in LA. Much of which depends on the Lakers/Cavs situation.

Going to dive into Sunday's card in a bit. I told Killa last night that I love the C's ML and I'm pretty sure I'm going to back up that statement with some cash. Need to look over some articles before pulling the trigger. Line could end up being 7 by tip as well so it may be worth holding off on playing it.

 

[metsrp86]

Thanks, alot closer than I was hoping for. Im hoping the books continue to leave PHO totals at high levels. 2nd half unders may look good, if they continue to play the offensively challenged scrubs.

 

[Retburj13]

r u kidding

blazers end game on 21-4 rush

blow the cover and 2H -1 play

garbage

 

[tuck321]

Randolph belongs on that team.

 

[JPicks]

Played the Hornets @-3 for Sunday so far. Just the normal home and home return favor game. Mavs aren't good enough to take both games and I can deal with laying 3. I'd be cautious over that # though. Would much rather have had the 2 quite honestly but that # lasted all of 4 minutes from the opener. With the fluidity of seeds #2 through #5 I don't think either team can choose who they want to play. Just looking for wins to carry momentum into the playoffs.

 

[SF_capper]

nice. Just played it pretty big, came onto here and love seeing you on it as well. More than just a normal home and away. There is of course the playoff seeding which now has dallas tied for 6th. new orleans ends the seaosn at houston and at SA so a win here, giving them the tie breker, could get clinch them the 6th and more imprtantly almost assuredley a loss would give them the 7th.

Players and coaches always say it’s hard to beat a team twice in a row, and the Hornets hope that’s the case. New Orleans coach Byron Scott perhaps added to his team’s desire by accusing the Mavericks of “rubbing it in, showing off, I don’t know what you want to call it.”

“I’m old school, so it doesn’t set well with me,” he said. “I hope it doesn’t set well with our guys.”

normally I wouldn't look too much into it, but it seems all yr that New Orleans has disspointed until scott says some shit about his team, then they bursit for a game or two before falling again

 

[SF_capper]

also regarding boston- I can see the motivation for Boston trying to send a message to Cleveland right before the playoffs proving to themselves and the league that Cleveland iSn't getting a free ride to the finals, but besides trying to send a point, Boston doesn't have much reason to gun hard. They're pretty much set at the 2 and with so many vets and docs thinking, some extra rest would be invited. Cleveland on the other hand could send the same message to pretty much the only contender in re east by sweeping them, clinching hca, and getting into record books at 40-1. Probably gonna stay off and cheer u on

 

[spiderman]

also regarding boston- I can see the motivation for Boston trying to send a message to Cleveland right before the playoffs proving to themselves and the league that Cleveland iSn't getting a free ride to the finals, but besides trying to send a point, Boston doesn't have much reason to gun hard. They're pretty much set at the 2 and with so many vets and docs thinking, some extra rest would be invited. Cleveland on the other hand could send the same message to pretty much the only contender in re east by sweeping them, clinching hca, and getting into record books at 40-1. Probably gonna stay off and cheer u on

Possible, but I think Boston is thinking about the playoffs at this point. It's pretty hard to predict how much motivation Boston will have today. At least Cleveland have the home court record to play for.

It's just so tough to play games at this point of the season because of all of these last second injuries, player rotations changing, and the guesswork of which teams will play hard vs mailing it in.

 

[Killa]

Good thread. You're exempt from Killa's wrath.

 

[rob0317]

Seeing 8's out their on C's right now

 

[JPicks]

Boston line move isn't making me to excited to jump on them. Bookmaker has also been shading lines since the open looking for C's action. One more bad piece of news.


Kennedy to officiate Cavs-Celtics game
Link|Comments (1)Posted by Marc J. Spears, Globe Staff April 12, 2009 10:55 AM
CLEVELAND -- Bill Kennedy, the official who ejected Celtics coach Doc Rivers during a Celtics-Bulls game on Feb. 17 and was fined two days later for his handling of the situation, is one of three officials for this afternoon's Celtics-Cavaliers game in Cleveland.

Rivers, who was also fined $25,000 for his criticism of the officials after the game, said Kennedy goaded him into a second technical foul and ejection. A referees' press release said Kennedy was correct and they were disappointed the league didn't stand behind him.

"In some ways I know I was right, because of the [Kennedy] fine," Rivers said after the incident. "I wish it didn't happen."

While it's not unusual for officials to be fined, it's unusual for it to become public. Considering the magnitude of this afternoon's nationally-televised game, it's surprising that Kennedy would be chosen as one of the officials.

"It doesn't make me feel good for anyone else to get fined," Rivers said in February. "I don't want to go deep into this, but it looks like the whistle-blowers don't like it when the whistle blows. I like the fact that -- coaches have been publicly fined for years, and it's good when everyone is publicly fined. If it's public for one, it should be public for all."

 

[Satyr]

GL tonight JP

the more I look at this CLE/BOS matchup the closer I am to not getting involved in it.

 

[JPicks]

Thanks Satyr. I'm becoming less excited about it as well. I'm likely to put in a future bet with the Celtics to win it all and this just seems like a game that they could go and make a statement to the league. Obviously a bit more difficult w/out Garnett, but I don't find it out of their ability. Being that they haven't won in Cleveland since the big 3 came together they could probably use the confidence boost of winning one in Cleveland.


Since the Celtics put together The Big Three prior to the 2007-08 season, no road team has won a game in the Boston-Cleveland series (seven regular-season and seven postseason games). The Kevin Garnett-less Celtics hope to change that today, but Cleveland owns an NBA-best 38-1 home record.

The Celtics can wrap up the East's No. 2 seed with a win, while the Cavaliers are fighting the Lakers for the overall top seed.

"As much as we'd like to win, it's hard to say that there's any more [significance]," Ray Allen said. "It's enough being there.

"They have to take care of what they have to take care of and we have to take care of what we have to take care of. We know where we stand, but as a team it would be a great win on the road for us, and that's what we look forward to."

Asked if the win means any more for either team, Celtics coach Doc Rivers said, "I don't know if it does or not. I believe our guys can win anyway, even in places we haven't won."

 

[JPicks]

Ok. Can't play Boston with Kennedy doing to the game. Scott Foster is in Boston as well and I hear he has the over.

C's/Cavs O185.5

Also snuck in the Sixers @-1.5. It's been talked about a ton on the forum. Lose this and enjoy Boston in the 1st round. Even if they win today they may still get them with Bos and Cle still on the schedule.